currency

The NZD has suffered enormously, post the US Presidential election and the resounding win by Trump. Market confidence has soared and along with it, US equities and the US Dollar. The NZD has plummeted all the way down to 0.5850, following the surge in the reserve currency. The precipitous losses were calmed last week, when Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged there was ‘no hurry’ to cut rates, with Trump pro-growth economic policies.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .5900

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .5830-.5900

The NZD/AUD cross rate has been moving steadily lower, approaching the key 0.9000 mark. The RBNZ has embarked on a rate cutting program and this is in direct contrast to the RBA Governor, who holds rates higher. The RBA Governor has cited stubborn inflationary pressures remaining in the Australian economy, none less than in fiscal spending. The pressure remains to the downside.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD .9050 AUDNZD 1.1040

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD .9000 – .9070 AUDNZD 1.0950 – 1.1050

After weakening off to 0.6135 (1.6300)  levels late last week the Australian Dollar (AUD) has clawed back losses Monday to trade back at 0.6170 (1.6200) against the Euro (EUR) off the back of a collapse in the German coalition Government. Australian jobs numbers release Thursday and should reflect a shift in recent strong “employed” jobs numbers. Until late labour force participation has remained high at 67.2%, this has been creating wage and inflation pressures. This could all be about to change?. We pick a reversal on the cards back to 0.6060 (1.6500) levels.

Current Level: 1.6217
Resistance: 1.6530
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6160- 1.6542

After weakening off to 0.6135 (1.6300)  levels late last week the Australian Dollar (AUD) has clawed back losses Monday to trade back at 0.6170 (1.6200) against the Euro (EUR) off the back of a collapse in the German coalition Government. Australian jobs numbers release Thursday and should reflect a shift in recent strong “employed” jobs numbers. Until late labour force participation has remained high at 67.2%, this has been creating wage and inflation pressures. This could all be about to change?. We pick a reversal on the cards back to 0.6060 (1.6500) levels.

Current Level: 0.6166
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6050
Last Weeks Range: 0.6045- 0.6188

The Bank of England (BoE) cut their interest rate Friday from 5.00% to 4.75% as widely expected. The vote, an 8-1 decision was accompanied by benign policy guidance with a gradual approach to slowly removing restraints. The recent budget reinforcing a boost to growth and inflation. The British Pound (GBP) pushed higher over the news to0 0.5090 (1.9650). Heading into Tuesday the AUD has recovered slightly to 0.5110 (1.9570) as we await Australian Jobs data this week.

Current Level: 1.9580
Resistance: 1.9700
Support: 1.9330
Last Weeks Range: 1.9426- 1.9781

The Euro (EUR) has been slammed of late, the New Zealand Dollar extended gains Monday off 0.5570 (1.7950) to trade around 0.5590 (1.7870) into Tuesday sessions. The Euro has been weak across the board off the back of the collapse of the German Govt and the new “Trump” govt. A daily close through the 6-week high at 0.5610 (1.7830) could spell further troubles for the Euro. German economic sentiment prints tonight and could also show a decline to overall growth.

Current Level: 1.7869
Resistance: 1.8210
Support: 1.7830
Last Weeks Range: 1.7905 – 1.8232

The Euro (EUR) has been slammed of late, the New Zealand Dollar extended gains Monday off 0.5570 (1.7950) to trade around 0.5590 (1.7870) into Tuesday sessions. The Euro has been weak across the board off the back of the collapse of the German Govt and the new “Trump” govt. A daily close through the 6-week high at 0.5610 (1.7830) could spell further troubles for the Euro. German economic sentiment prints tonight and could also show a decline to overall growth.

Current Level: 0.5596
Support: 0.5490
Resistance: 0.5610
Last week’s range: 0.5484- 0.5585

The risk off Friday tone took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower to 0.4615 (2.1670) against the British Pound (GBP) , strange as the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates by 25 points to 4.75%. This must have been fully priced in as markets preferred to buy the Pound. Perhaps the BoE tone surprised markets by saying they see upside inflation risks due to the recent budget. NZ surveyed inflation expectations 1 year out have gone from 2.40% to 2.05% with the 2 year up from 2.03% to 2.12%. The kiwi traded up post the news to 0.4635 (2.1580).

Current Level: 2.1579
Resistance: 2.1900
Support: 2.1350
Last Weeks Range: 2.1513- 2.1778