AUD

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made gains mid last week off 0.4635 (2.1580) against the British Pound (GBP) closing at 0.4680 (2.1380). Early week moves have seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.4660 (2.1470) as we head into CPI prints for both currencies. UK inflation should dip to 1.9% from 2.2% y/y creeping just inside the Bank of England’s target. At the moment the BoE are expected to cut rates on the 7th of Nov by a further 0.25% to 4.75% however the central bank remains cautious over cutting too quick. The bear trend in the cross remains.

Current Level: 0.4657
Resistance: 0.4725
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4631- 0.4707

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been teetering just above the 0.9000 (1.1110) level for several days now after coming from the 0.9210 (1.0860) zone a fortnight back. We still believe price will drop into the 80’s with the AUD generally in better shape. Aussie Jobs data should reflect 4.2% unemployment (no change) from September when it prints Thursday with more jobs created. Now that markets have got past the Chinese stimulus debacle we may see more buying into AUD.

Current Level: 1.1045
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1020
Last Weeks Range: 1.0981 – 1.1090

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been teetering just above the 0.9000 (1.1110) level for several days now after coming from the 0.9210 (1.0860) zone a fortnight back. We still believe price will drop into the 80’s with the AUD generally in better shape. Aussie Jobs data should reflect 4.2% unemployment (no change) from September when it prints Thursday with more jobs created. Now that markets have got past the Chinese stimulus debacle we may see more buying into AUD.

Current Level: 0.9047
Resistance: 0.9075
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.9017 – 0.9106

It has been a quiet start to the trading week with the US Holiday Monday making for thin market conditions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) closed the week around the 0.6100 mark and has meandered its way into Tuesday around the same level. The kiwi does however look a little better bid post the big dollar recent rally. US Producer Prices turned in a flat monthly result but is up 1.8% y/y and follows other strong US data releases. The Fed is in the final stages of getting inflation back to 2.0% target, but the central bank seem uncertain of how restrictive monetary policy needs to be with the jobs market remaining strong. Focus diverts to NZ inflation tomorrow with expectations of further falls 3.3% to 2.3% q/q which could put extra pressure on the NZD. Upside moves look limited past 0.6140 levels.

Current Level: 0.6086
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.6051- 0.6193

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6250 (1.60) long term resistance mid last week to give back gains to 0.6120 (1.6350) yesterday. Punching below key moving averages around 0.6160 (1.6230) we could see more downside develop. Also weighing on the AUD is Chinese stimulus concerns, rising oil prices and the conflict in Israel. The RBA minutes signalled a removal of their dovish tone by not saying they weren’t reducing the cash rate in the near term.

Current Level: 1.6291
Resistance: 1.6400
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6000- 1.6185

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6250 (1.60) long term resistance mid last week to give back gains to 0.6120 (1.6350) yesterday. Punching below key moving averages around 0.6160 (1.6230) we could see more downside develop. Also weighing on the AUD is Chinese stimulus concerns, rising oil prices and the conflict in Israel. The RBA minutes signalled a removal of their dovish tone by not saying they weren’t reducing the cash rate in the near term.

Current Level: 0.6138
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6100
Last Weeks Range: 0.6178- 0.6250

All upside moves by the Australian Dollar (AUD) last week have been reversed this week with the cross turning on a dime around 0.5220 (1.9170) clocking 0.5140 (1.9470) this morning. Most of the Aussie weakness coming from risk sentiment and Chinese stimulus measures. Chinese equities have plummeted overnight over 7% not helping the AUD suffering the biggest drop in 4 years. UK m/m GDP prints tomorrow evening and should be positive following a recent pickup in manufacturing. 0.5120 (1.9520) is the next target support.

Current Level: 1.9459
Resistance: 1.9680
Support: 1.9320
Last Weeks Range: 1.9123- 1.9390

It’s been all one-way traffic in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross this week extending off 1.7800 (0.5620) the weekly open to 1.8070 (0.5535) in morning trade the kiwi coming under enormous pressures after the RBNZ cut interest rates half a cent yesterday off 5.25% to 4.75%. The cut was widely predicted however although much of the downside momentum in the NZD was priced in, more sellers of NZD come forward post the release. On the chart the kiwi has slipped past prior support at 0.5555 (1.80) and could retest early July levels circa 0.5510 (1.8150) in the coming days. We haven’t seen much on the Euro calendar this week, much of the focus has been on the German govt updating their GDP forecast which is predicted to be a negative number when it prints at the end of this month.

Current Level: 1.8044
Resistance: 1.8120
Support: 1.7670
Last Weeks Range: 1.7481 – 1.7836