AUD

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains “offered” into Monday against the Euro with price just a touch lower on the open at 0.5540 (1.8050). Although risk appetite has improved with equity markets recovering it’s unusual to not have seen a reversal of sorts from the kiwi. New Zealand Inflation expectations for the third quarter releases Wednesday which should give clues as to whether we might see a shift in monetary policy from the RBNZ and hold or consider another hike? We don’t see any shifts outside the long-term bear channel happening this week with price likely to trickle lower.

Current Level: 0.5547
Resistance: 0.5700
Support: 0.5540
Last Weeks Range: 0.5534 – 0.5659

Exchange Rates

GBP/NZD Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) continue to climb against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday to meet the earlier low of 0.4775 (2.0940). Risk markets were a little subdued giving the GBP further momentum. A break clear of 0.4760 (2.10) would certainly signal further downside for the kiwi, the next target support is 0.4670 (2.1400), the pre-Brexit low of June 2016. Looking ahead we have NZ inflation expectations tomorrow and UK GDP Friday.

Current Level: 2.0942
Resistance: 2.0965
Support: 2.0510
Last Weeks Range: 2.0623 – 2.0958

Exchange Rates

NZD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) continue to climb against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday to meet the earlier low of 0.4775 (2.0940). Risk markets were a little subdued giving the GBP further momentum. A break clear of 0.4760 (2.10) would certainly signal further downside for the kiwi, the next target support is 0.4670 (2.1400), the pre-Brexit low of June 2016. Looking ahead we have NZ inflation expectations tomorrow and UK GDP Friday.

Current Level: 0.4775
Resistance: 0.4875
Support: 0.4770
Last Weeks Range: 0.4771 – 0.4848

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a key 12-week level of 0.9325 (1.0725) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the wash up of the RBA leaving rates unchanged last week. The pair is bouncing around the 0.9285 (1.0770) area early Tuesday as it consolidates ahead of a thin week of data releases. NZ Inflation expectations prints tomorrow with the view predicted inflation should be tracking around the 3.0% mark in two years’ time, but this shouldn’t be a big currency mover. Price in the cross could drift close to the 0.9300 (1.0750) area this week.

Current Level: 1.0772
Resistance: 1.0910
Support: 1.0730
Last Weeks Range: 1.0726 – 1.0832

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a key 12-week level of 0.9325 (1.0725) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the wash up of the RBA leaving rates unchanged last week. The pair is bouncing around the 0.9285 (1.0770) area early Tuesday as it consolidates ahead of a thin week of data releases. NZ Inflation expectations prints tomorrow with the view predicted inflation should be tracking around the 3.0% mark in two years’ time, but this shouldn’t be a big currency mover. Price in the cross could drift close to the 0.9300 (1.0750) area this week.

Current Level: 0.9283
Resistance: 0.9320
Support: 0.9165
Last Weeks Range: 0.9147 – 0.9323

 

Uncategorized

NZD/USD Transfer

Inflation data will be key this week to determining the next move by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD). With the kiwi travelling close to long term lows recently around the 0.6030 zone it’s an important week, will the NZD finally fall below pivotal 0.6000 or maintain enough buyer support and rally back to levels around 0.6400 seen a couple of weeks back. Certainly, NZ inflation expectations for the 3rd quarter could determine if we see a last-ditch hike by the RBNZ to bring down inflation. US CPI y/y is predicted to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%, the first time since June 2022, which may decide if the US economy falls into recession.

Current Level: 0.6105
Resistance: 0.6390
Support: 0.6065
Last Weeks Range: 0.6058 – 0.6224

FX News

FX Update: Risk Holding Up

Market Overview

Key Points:
• Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) printed poorly at 187,000 compared to 205,000 putting the US Dollar under pressure.
• The Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise rates again, we see a 70% chance the Central Bank will hike 25 points at their Sep 21 meeting.
• Germany’s economic situation is worsening as they face industrial production declines, energy rises, and a lack of consumer spending.
• The Fed have not ruled out the possibility of cutting rates in 2024
• UK House prices fell 0.3% in July vs 0.0%
• The Euro (EUR) has been the strongest currency in the month of August while the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the worst performer.

Major Announcements last week:
• Chinese July Manufacturing 49.3 vs 48.9 forecast
• RBA maintain cash rate at 4.10%
• NZ Unemployment Rate climbs to 3.6% from 3.4% in June
• Bank of England (BoE) hike 25 points to 5.25%
• Canadian Unemployment remains unchanged at 5.5%
• Non-Farm Payroll prints 187k vs 205k expected

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell to a 9-week low against the US Dollar (USD) Thursday extending recent losses to 0.6510. The US 10-year treasury bond yield was up 11 points to 4.19% and nears the October 2022 high. This in turn has seen a selloff in equity markets in August with the capacity to deepen. Not good for risk currencies in the near to medium term. Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold Tuesday at 4.10% the central bank suggesting they weren’t done yet dependent on incoming data, the AUD backtracking post the release. Non-Farm Payroll tonight with expectation of a mixed result and a slowdown of jobs data.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6557

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6514- 0.6739

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

Our predictions were correct with the British Pound (GBP) pushing higher from Tuesday’s 0.5240 (1.9080) to reach 0.5140 (1.9460) in early Friday trading. The lowest level since April 2020. The BoE signalled they are close to reaching a top in this tightening cycle later this year but highlighting further persistent pressures remain with taming inflation, consumer spending and strong wages. Earlier the Bank of Australia surprised markets by holding their cash rate at 4.10% against expectation of a hike, maintaining their forward guidance of further tightening required. For now, the Aussie looks down for the count, the worst performing main board currency.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5157 GBPAUD 1.9391

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5136- 0.5242 GBPAUD 1.9072- 1.9469

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to move higher throughout the week reaching 0.9325 (1.0725) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but it hasn’t been all one-way traffic. Although the cross remains within big picture ranges, movement over the week has certainly not been stagnant. The RBA surprised us by leaving their cash rate unchanged at 4.1% in a hawkish release amid expectation they will raise again down the track. NZ Job’s numbers reached an all-time high with 72.4% of eligible people in the workforce. However, the unemployment rate did jump to 3.6% from 3.45 in the June quarter. This may not be enough for the RBNZ to hold rates at their August 16 meeting, but we should get a better signal when NZ inflation expectations are released on Wednesday. We really do need a big-ticket risk event to shift the NZD/AUD cross out of its long-term range.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9271 AUDNZD 1.0783

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9231- 0.9318 AUDNZD 1.0732- 1.0832