AUD

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged late last week at 5.50% but pivoted on policy reflecting a dovish stance. The Fed’s ability to guide the economy to a soft landing is being commended with the timing of rate cuts suggested for 2024 along with key risk management. The chance of further rate hikes are now slim with several rate cuts being priced in from mid-2024. The AUD/USD bounced from 0.6600 levels to 0.6670 around the release. Unemployment rose in November to 3.9% the highest level since May 2022 vs forecast of 3.8%. This sent the Aussie higher again underpinning the recent RBA’s concern of persistent domestic demand. The economy added 61,500 jobs – more than the 11,500 expected. The Aussie has held up well since as equities posted gains, into morning trade around the 0.6700 level just off a 20-week high.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6702

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6689- 0.6734

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shifted higher late in the week against the US Dollar (USD) pushing into the 0.62’s after a massive re-think in Fed sentiment. Price reached 0.6250 as the Fed delivered their unchanged cash rate announcement. The Fed said they would keep rates as they are until mid-2024 when they expect to cut rates around June, possibly twice more before the end of the year. Earlier US CPI printed at 3.1% y/y bang on forecast throwing doubt into whether the Fed would price in cuts. NZ GDP q/q released at -0.3% down on 0.2% expectations, the economy contracting more than markets were forecasting and stoking fears of another recession is on the cards. Have the RBNZ raised rates too much in efforts to aggressively bring down inflation which is still 5.6%. It’s now a strong likelihood the central bank will consider cutting sooner over later in 2024. Through most of 2023 the kiwi has been mostly bearish, we believe we may have seen a shift to a bullish tone over November with pricing reversing off mid 57’s, strong support is now 0.6000.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6211

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6187- 0.6250

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

A solid US jobs report Friday moved the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower against the US Dollar (USD) closing the week around the 0.6570 zone. Non-Farm Payroll showed further jobs were added to the economy in November beating expectations of 184k to 199k, some suggesting the US economy could be setting up for a soft economic landing. Unemployment also came in better than expected at 3.7% after 3.9% was expected pushing investors to buy the greenback. The Fed cash rate will publish Wednesday and should remain at 5.5% but not before key US CPI y/y. Whatever happens will set the tone for the following couple of months for AUD/USD direction.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6566

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6549- 0.6582

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross is still firmly bouncing around within recent ranges and has done so since late September. Into Tuesday the Aussie has improved, trading around the 0.5230 (1.9120) area off 0.5210 (1.9190). On the calendar this week we have Australian employment data and later the Bank of England official cash rate- expected to remain unchanged at 5.25%.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5226 GBPAUD 1.9135

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5211- 0.5245 GBPAUD 1.9064- 1.9187

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed towards the end of the week against the US Dollar (USD) falling to 0.6110 levels as strong US data printed. Into Tuesday morning trade we have seen a small perk up in the kiwi to 0.6130 but topside this week could be tough going. We will get a look at US CPI tomorrow, predicted to dip lower from 3.2% to 3.1%. Anything around 3.2% will almost certainly set the scene for another round of interest rate hikes in order to bring down inflation to Fed target levels. Markets however would love to see a decent fall to bring forward rate cuts forecast for third quarter 2024.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6120

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6104- 0.6131

 

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

Higher lows followed by higher highs in December continue to dominate the chart in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross. The bull trend from late last week’s 0.9300 level to 0.9340 early this morning could signal further upside for the kiwi. NZ GDP prints Thursday for the third quarter ending September 30 and should highlight modest growth in the economy (0.2%) However, by removing migration the economy is expected to contract over the next 12 months. Aussie unemployment is predicted to increase slightly off 3.7% Thursday.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9315 AUDNZD 1.0724

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9306- 0.9339 AUDNZD 1.0707- 1.0745

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Cash Rate remained unchanged at 4.35% Tuesday rallying the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5190 (1.9270) post the release, the RBA saying they still see room to hike at a later date if inflation and jobs data print particularly poor. The board saying bringing back inflation to the target range of 2-3% was looking like taking longer than anticipated. Aussie GDP q/q printed at 0.2% vs 0.5% forecast Wednesday sending the Aussie lower to 0.5200 (1.9220) briefly before reversing again to clock 0.5250 (1.9050) early this morning. Next week’s Bank of England cash rate release is insight with predictions the central bank will retain their stance at 5.25% and unwind some of the recent rhetoric around “higher for longer”.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5238 GBPAUD 1.9091

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5190- 0.5271 GBPAUD 1.8970- 1.9266

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) took on water for most of the week against the US Dollar (USD) dropping from 0.6680 levels to 0.6525 yesterday. Most of the downside was off the back of poor Aussie GDP, figures showing only a 0.2% rise in the third quarter after 0.5% was predicted. Household consumption has slowed over recent quarters and shows the fallout of higher interest rates on spending. Overnight equity markets have improved, the Nasdaq is up over 1.2% which has helped the AUD back over 0.6600. Non-Farm Payrolls print tomorrow, pushing through 0.6680 will be tough.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6595

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6525- 0.6690

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Risk assets this week have dragged on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the currency falling back to 0.6115 against the US Dollar (USD) on renewed greenback demand. Central banks around the globe are starting to talk more about easing policy and dropping rates sooner rather than later. The recent rhetoric around “higher for longer” is now being questioned with the first rate cut now predicted by the RBNZ by August 2024. Non-Farm Payroll prints tonight expected to come in light with unemployment to tick higher from 3.9%. Technically the kiwi looks well capped at 0.6220 and should continue to the downside. A December close below 0.6050 should signal further bearish price moves.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6162

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6113- 0.6222

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended moves north into Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clocking 0.9390 (1.0650) an 8-week high. The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.35% Tuesday as widely predicted after the central bank hiked in November. New governor Michelle Bullock saying progress to bring down inflation to their target 2-3% band has been slower than forecast. The RBA have no meeting planned in January; we would not expect a further hike at February’s meeting if 4th quarter inflation prints considerably lower than the current 5.4% in late January. Prices in the pair are back around the 0.9345 (1.0700) zone with a little Aussie support in play.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9339 AUDNZD 1.0699

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9287- 0.9384 AUDNZD 1.0656- 1.0767