The RBNZ spiked the NZD/AUD cross rate back to above 0.9300 after falling sharply in October. The RBA raised rates at their Melbourne Cup meeting, under cover, but signalling inflation remains a serious issue in the economy. The cross is likely to have a trading range of 0.9200 to 0.9400 as fluctuations persist in monetary policy of Central Banks on both sides of the Tasman.
Current Level: 0.9292
Resistance: 0.9400
Support: 0.9250
Last Weeks Range: 0.9205 – 0.9234
The RBNZ decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, but the accompanying narrative was surprisingly ‘hawkish’. The Central Bank indicated that there could be further rate rises if inflation persists. This added upside to the NZD, which spiked up to 0.6200, although settled as the reserve continues to rally. The short-term attraction of higher interest rates support the currency, only until risk is considered.
Current Level: 0.6135
Resistance: 0.6230
Support: 0.6045
Last Weeks Range: 0.6053 – 0.6197
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency last week across the main board- evident when we look at progress made on the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) chart. The Aussie extended last week’s gains Monday reaching 0.6040 (1.6560), a 3-week high as “risk” mood improved. Also of note was ECB’s Muller- suggesting the central bank may not need to raise rates further, other ECB members have been less optimistic with inflation not yet where it needs to be with outlook tilted to the downside.
Current Level: 1.6572
Resistance: 1.6810
Support: 1.6395
Last Weeks Range: 1.6596 – 1.6760
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency last week across the main board- evident when we look at progress made on the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) chart. The Aussie extended last week’s gains Monday reaching 0.6040 (1.6560), a 3-week high as “risk” mood improved. Also of note was ECB’s Muller- suggesting the central bank may not need to raise rates further, other ECB members have been less optimistic with inflation not yet where it needs to be with outlook tilted to the downside.
Current Level: 0.5233
Resistance: 0.5280
Support: 0.5170
Last Weeks Range: 0.5215 – 0.5259
US Dollar (USD) weakness continues post the US Thanksgiving holiday, risk currencies getting another boost from this. The Australian Dollar (AUD) clawed back early losses from 0.5215 (1.9180) to 0.5235 (1.9100) this morning rebounding off the 50% fib key level. Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow and should reflect a small drop from 5.6% to around 5.2%. The new RBA chief Michele Bullock has been hawkish of late with inflation concerns, will she keep the same line?
Current Level: 1.9109
Resistance: 1.9340
Support: 1.8940
Last Weeks Range: 1.9013 – 1.9175
US Dollar (USD) weakness continues post the US Thanksgiving holiday, risk currencies getting another boost from this. The Australian Dollar (AUD) clawed back early losses from 0.5215 (1.9180) to 0.5235 (1.9100) this morning rebounding off the 50% fib key level. Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow and should reflect a small drop from 5.6% to around 5.2%. The new RBA chief Michele Bullock has been hawkish of late with inflation concerns, will she keep the same line?
Current Level: 0.5233
Support: 0.5170
Resistance: 0.5280
Last week’s range: 0.5215 – 0.5259
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has broken resistance on the upside Monday at 0.6590 against the US Dollar (USD), the key 50% fib level also has also been breached suggesting further momentum could be seen over the coming days/weeks. The next level of interest will be 0.6650. The key standout this week is Aussie CPI y/y with predictions of the number falling from 5.6%, we are not so sure with expectations of late rising following weeks of high energy prices. This is most of the reason why the RBA raised rates to 4.35% earlier this month. If we see inflation come in around 5.6% we could very well see interest rates raised again in the RBA’s December 5 meeting. Certainly, those needing to buy USD should consider, with current prices looking attractive.
Current Level: 0.6614
Support: 0.6300
Resistance: 0.6900
Last week’s range: 0.6520 – 0.6589
The Euro (EUR) wasn’t able to hold the 1.8050 (0.5540) level Monday after a bumper start to the week, the kiwi recovering to 0.5575 (1.7940) as risk returned and the greenback weakened. The Euro extended last week’s losses post ECB comments from Muller suggesting they do not need to keep tightening policy further. ECB’s Nagel said they were not yet where they wanted to be on inflation. The key standout this week is the RBNZ rate announcement. It’s widely expected the central bank will retain the 5.5% but attention will be on further clues as to when cuts could kick in.
Current Level: 1.7962
Resistance: 1.8250
Support: 1.7600
Last Weeks Range: 1.790 – 1.8214
The Euro (EUR) wasn’t able to hold the 1.8050 (0.5540) level Monday after a bumper start to the week, the kiwi recovering to 0.5575 (1.7940) as risk returned and the greenback weakened. The Euro extended last week’s losses post ECB comments from Muller suggesting they do not need to keep tightening policy further. ECB’s Nagel said they were not yet where they wanted to be on inflation. The key standout this week is the RBNZ rate announcement. It’s widely expected the central bank will retain the 5.5% but attention will be on further clues as to when cuts could kick in.
Current Level: 0.5567
Support: 0.5480
Resistance: 0.5680
Last week’s range: 0.5490 – 0.5571
It’s been a shaky start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair pushing lower to 0.4812 (2.0780) and back to 0.4835 (2.0680) this morning. Early strength in the GBP was undone off the back a little “risk” demand. Key data this week is the RBNZ rate announcement- no change is expected from 5.5% but comments around future rate cuts could be interesting. Rhetoric around bringing forward from late next year could weaken the kiwi.
Current Level: 2.0712
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0180
Last Weeks Range: 2.0591- 2.0799