AUD

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost over the weekend after chat from Former RBA Kearns suggesting the cash rate was not high enough. With inflation still an issue it would be a long time before the RBA thought about cutting rates. Monday’s action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross was thin with Presidents Day long weekend. The AUD/USD is perched around 0.6530 with perhaps a tad downside bias in early Tuesday. Fed minutes Thursday before manufacturing data and existing home sales are the key prints to come. We struggle to see the Aussie pushing past 0.6550 and may retrace moves.

Current Level: 0.6524
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6570
Last week’s range: 0.6441- 0.6542

FX News

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 1.7559
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7500
Last Weeks Range: 1.7516- 1.7699

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.5695
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5715
Last week’s range: 0.5650- 0.5709

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) late in the week and into Monday’s open to 0.4890 (2.0450) This is a significant shift in momentum from mid last week’s action around 0.4800 (2.0820) and shows a trend change. UK Retail Sales came in above expectations of 1.5% at 3.4% after -3.3% prior. This boosted the Pound only briefly. On the chart the fib 50% retracement from the low at 0.4780 (2.0910) and the high at 0.5000 (2.0000) has been breached at 0.4880 (2.0500) signalling further upside could be instore for the kiwi.

Current Level: 2.0525
Resistance: 2.0770
Support: 2.0400
Last Weeks Range: 2.0518- 2.0816

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) late in the week and into Monday’s open to 0.4890 (2.0450) This is a significant shift in momentum from mid last week’s action around 0.4800 (2.0820) and shows a trend change. UK Retail Sales came in above expectations of 1.5% at 3.4% after -3.3% prior. This boosted the Pound only briefly. On the chart the fib 50% retracement from the low at 0.4780 (2.0910) and the high at 0.5000 (2.0000) has been breached at 0.4880 (2.0500) signalling further upside could be instore for the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.4872
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4815
Last Weeks Range: 0.4804- 0.4873

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

A light calendar week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen the pair stretch out Monday continuing last week’s move higher through 0.9400 (1.0640), posting 0.9415 (1.0620) this morning. RBNZ rate cut predictions seem to be a hot talking point with analysts uncertain of upcoming timing, we have seen reports range from June to November. The RBA minutes highlighted Governor Bullock is undecided on whether the RBA will hike or cut at the next policy meeting. NZ Retail Sales Friday could print worse than expected putting pressure on the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.0632
Resistance: 1.0800
Support: 1.0580
Last Weeks Range: 1.0586- 1.0701

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

A light calendar week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen the pair stretch out Monday continuing last week’s move higher through 0.9400 (1.0640), posting 0.9415 (1.0620) this morning. RBNZ rate cut predictions seem to be a hot talking point with analysts uncertain of upcoming timing, we have seen reports range from June to November. The RBA minutes highlighted Governor Bullock is undecided on whether the RBA will hike or cut at the next policy meeting. NZ Retail Sales Friday could print worse than expected putting pressure on the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.9398
Resistance: 0.9450
Support: 0.9260
Last Weeks Range: 0.9344- 0.9446

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Bank holiday in the US made for a slow start to the week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) taking advantage of thin liquidity pushing up towards 0.6150 this morning. Stiff resistance is seen at 0.6160, if we see a push through this area the kiwi could test the 0.6200 level. Fed rate predictions have been tough to pick with expectations now the Fed will cut 3 times in 2024- this is down from 7 in January. This has all come about based on a less dovish Fed, stronger jobs data and a hotter inflation read last week. NZ Retail Sales releases Friday for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.6134
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6170
Last week’s range: 0.6048- 0.6151

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The English Pound (GBP) flew to 1.9520 (0.5120) Wednesday, a fresh 2024 high against the Australian Dollar (AUD). UK CPI remained unchanged at 4.0% after a forecast of 4.1%. This is welcome news for the Bank of England as CPI should stay well contained within the 2.0% target band over the coming months. This should bring about further discussion on rate cuts and the timing of these. We think the central bank will cut rates starting mid-year (June). Aussie job numbers and unemployment came in light, unemployment at 4.1% after 4.0% was forecast. Overnight UK GDP m/m for December surprised markets with a print of -0.3% instead of -0.1% following a contraction in the September 2023 quarter of -0.1% confirming the UK economy is in a recession.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5175 GBPAUD 1.9323

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5120- 0.5193 GBPAUD 1.9253- 1.9528

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked lower over the week clocking 0.6440 against the US Dollar (USD) as it continued its lower highs followed by lower lows theme. A June rate cut is not that likely now after the US CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.1% y/y for December. This is down from November’s 3.4% – forecast was 2.9%. All those punters expecting a rate cut around mid-year may be disappointed; in fact these numbers could get the Fed excited about a hike further. Aussie job numbers came in softer than expected (unemployment 4.1% from 4.0%) with RBA’s Bullock saying inflation remains well anchored. Core Retail Sales printed poorly in the US and the Aussie came steaming back off lows overnight to trade around 0.6520 after equity markets recovered.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6525

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6441- 0.6542