The RBNZ left rates unchanged, as expected by markets, this week gone by. The previous CPI inflation reading from NZ, was softer than expected, and this has led to a more ‘dovish’ approach to monetary policy. The NZD tumbled against all currencies, with the prospect of further weakness, as the Fed continues the ‘higher for longer’ mantra.
Current Level: 0.6162
Support: 0.6100
Resistance: 0.6190
Last week’s range: 0.6055- 0.6120
The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing below of 0.6000. The weakness of the cross-rate is partially due to falling commodity prices, but also the uncertainty from the RBA. The ECB meets this week to decide their latest rate decision, where they are projected to leave rates unchanged, but continue with the strongly ‘hawkish’ narrative. This will probably ensure continued downside for the cross-rate.
Current Level: 1.6694
Resistance: 1.6806
Support: 1.6542
Last Weeks Range: 1.6556- 1.6638
The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing below of 0.6000. The weakness of the cross-rate is partially due to falling commodity prices, but also the uncertainty from the RBA. The ECB meets this week to decide their latest rate decision, where they are projected to leave rates unchanged, but continue with the strongly ‘hawkish’ narrative. This will probably ensure continued downside for the cross-rate.
Current Level: 0.5990
Resistance: 0.6045
Support: 0.5950
Last Weeks Range: 0.6010- 0.6040
The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in a technical economic recession, but is showing signs of a recovery, which has given the Bank of England some backbone to hold rates higher. The cross-rate is likely to remain soft.
Current Level: 1.9531
Resistance: 1.9607
Support: 1.9230
Last Weeks Range: 1.9379- 1.9493
The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in a technical economic recession, but is showing signs of a recovery, which has given the Bank of England some backbone to hold rates higher. The cross-rate is likely to remain soft.
Current Level: 0.5120
Support: 0.5100
Resistance: 0.5200
Last week’s range: 0.5130- 0.5160
The RBA has been less than certain in their policy narrative over recent times. The inflation numbers have been steadily falling, in line with market expectations, but the RBA Governor has been very nervous in her commitment to future rate moves. Markets are looking for a clear direction and continued declines in the CPI, will give some certainty, but any
aberration will draw an immediate hawkish reaction. The AUD has fallen from early 2024 highs of 0.6850, to trading below 0.6500, also a victim of the resurgent reserve currency. Keep a close eye on the Australian GDP growth number, out Wednesday, for a glimpse at the state of the economy.
Current Level: 0.6500
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6620
Last week’s range: 0.6470- 0.6530
The NZD/EUR cross rate opened 2024 trading around 0.5750, but has been in steady decline since. This week the cross-rate traded all the way down to 0.5600, due to the bearish sentiment of the RBNZ, and the possible interest rate cuts predicted. The ECB will announce their latest decision this coming Thursday, where they are expected to leave rates unchanged, but maintain the ‘higher for longer’ stance. The ECB priority is fighting inflation and thus remains ‘hawkish’, although they are coming under immense pressure to cut rates by Q3. The European economies are suffering severe recessionary economic conditions and are calling out for some relief, in the form of interest rate cuts, from the ECB.
Current Level: 1.7841
Resistance: 1.8018
Support: 1.7391
Last Weeks Range: 1.7497- 1.7793
The NZD/EUR cross rate opened 2024 trading around 0.5750, but has been in steady decline since. This week the cross-rate traded all the way down to 0.5600, due to the bearish sentiment of the RBNZ, and the possible interest rate cuts predicted. The ECB will announce their latest decision this coming Thursday, where they are expected to leave rates unchanged, but maintain the ‘higher for longer’ stance. The ECB priority is fighting inflation and thus remains ‘hawkish’, although they are coming under immense pressure to cut rates by Q3. The European economies are suffering severe recessionary economic conditions and are calling out for some relief, in the form of interest rate cuts, from the ECB.
Current Level: 0.5605
Support: 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5620- 0.5715
The NZDGBP cross rate has been in steep decline all of 2024. The year kicked off with the NZD buying close to 50 Pence/NZ Dollar. It has been in decline ever since, falling back to 0.4800. This is almost entirely due to the weakness of the KIWI, as the Bank of England has been steadfast in their battle on inflation. The weakening cross rate is likely to continue into
the near future.
Current Level: 2.0863
Resistance: 2.1052
Support: 2.0408
Last Weeks Range: 2.0491- 2.0703
The NZDGBP cross rate has been in steep decline all of 2024. The year kicked off with the NZD buying close to 50 Pence/NZ Dollar. It has been in decline ever since, falling back to 0.4800. This is almost entirely due to the weakness of the KIWI, as the Bank of England has been steadfast in their battle on inflation. The weakening cross rate is likely to continue into the near future.
Current Level: 0.4793
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4750
Last Weeks Range: 0.4830- 0.4880