AUD/GBP Transfer

Risk sentiment in markets improved throughout the week with the Australian Dollar (AUD) recovering off 0.5180 (1.9300) levels to post 0.5245 (1.9070) into Friday. The cross sits at the top of the recent range going back to January this year- a rally past 0.5265 (1.9000) would suggest further upside could be on the cards. All eyes are on next week’s RBA and Bank of England rate releases and statements with no change expected from the BoE’s 5.25% and RBA’s 4.35%, although a small chance the central bank could hike one more time. This could put the cat among the pigeons if a hike eventuates.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5240 GBPAUD 1.9083

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5178- 0.5251 GBPAUD 1.9041- 1.9309

 

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.6460 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) making back early week losses on its way to 0.6570 this morning. The Fed held interest rates on hold at 5.5% as widely expected extending a wait and see model, Powell saying inflation setbacks could keep policy in place “higher for longer” and rate increases were certainly not required. Data dependant we believe a shift to policy and potential rate cuts could kick off earlier towards year end. Markets await US Non-Farm Payroll numbers late tonight with unemployment predicted to come in at 3.8% and jobs numbers around 238k, we are expecting the cross to go lower if the report is strong.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6571

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6464- 0.6586

 

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar NZD) extended its mid-week comeback against the British Pound (GBP) coming off 0.4705 (2.1250) to post 0.4760 (2.1000). We suggested we may see a come back of sorts late in the week but not to this extent. Earlier NZ employment data showed a further softening to the job’s market in the first quarter of 2024 with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% from 4.0%, in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and won’t offer anything new for the RBNZ guidance. On the calendar- Next week’s Bank of England (BoE) official rate announcement is predicted to stay unchanged at 5.25%.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4754 GBPNZD 2.1034

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4704- 0.4773 GBPNZD 2.0951- 2.1258

NZD/USD Transfer

The Federal Reserve kept their interest rate at the highest level in over 2 decades yesterday blaming inflation setbacks for the “higher for longer” mantra. A wait and see approach which could last many months to come if we don’t see a marked weakening of the US economy. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed off 0.5870 reaching the 0.5960 level in early Friday trading and now targets the early week high at 0.5985. Assisting the kiwi was US equity markets rising over 1.0% in the NY session post the Powell speech. The Fed also saying they were committed to reducing their 7.4 trillion asset portfolio as rate hikes were off the table. Tomorrow mornings US Non-farm Payroll and unemployment rate will move prices.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5963

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5872- 0.5983

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retreated again against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to clock 0.9070 (1.1025), dropping 9 out of the last 10 weeks. A weekly close below 0.9075 (1.1020) would register the lowest level since October 2022 for the cross. RBA’s Kearns was on the wires with hawkish comments saying the RBA has been far to timid in raising rates, Aussie dwellings approvals were a miss coming in at 1.9% vs 3.5% in March the release not able to dampen the spirits of AUD buyers. Next week’s RBA cash rate release will be interesting with a 50/50 prediction of whether the RBA will hike or hold interest rates. Buyers of AUD may want to consider current levels before the possibility the cross dropping into the 80’s.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9069 AUDNZD 1.1016

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9069- 0.9124 AUDNZD 1.0960- 1.1026

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Euro (EUR) climbed to 1.6495 (0.6062) overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk mood deteriorated with the Fed meeting looming. The cross has bounced off fib 61.8% support and sits around the 50% fib zone of the high at 0.6135 (1.6300) and the low of 0.6020 (1.6615) suggesting subsequent moves could be towards 0.6085 (1.6430) today. With no further tier one data on the docket in the cross this week moves should be “risk” corresponding.

Current Level: 1.6469
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6150
Last Weeks Range: 1.6347- 1.6610

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Euro (EUR) climbed to 1.6495 (0.6062) overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as risk mood deteriorated with the Fed meeting looming. The cross has bounced off fib 61.8% support and sits around the 50% fib zone of the high at 0.6135 (1.6300) and the low of 0.6020 (1.6615) suggesting subsequent moves could be towards 0.6085 (1.6430) today. With no further tier one data on the docket in the cross this week moves should be “risk” corresponding.

Current Level: 0.6072
Resistance: 0.6190
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.6020- 0.6117

GBP/AUD Transfer

A risk off Tuesday has seen the Australian Dollar (AUD) drop to 0.5185 (1.9290) against the British Pound (GBP) early this morning after starting the week out at 0.5235 (1.9100). Australian Retail Sales for the March quarter came in weaker than expected at -0.4% compared to 0.2% bringing early sellers of AUD to the table. US Stocks drifted lower, down over 1.5% in overnight trading as punters started to react to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. On the chart the GBP could run into resistance to the downside at the Fib level at 0.5170 (1.9350)

Current Level: 1.9297
Resistance: 1.9530
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9085- 1.9280

AUD/GBP Transfer

A risk off Tuesday has seen the Australian Dollar (AUD) drop to 0.5185 (1.9290) against the British Pound (GBP) early this morning after starting the week out at 0.5235 (1.9100). Australian Retail Sales for the March quarter came in weaker than expected at -0.4% compared to 0.2% bringing early sellers of AUD to the table. US Stocks drifted lower, down over 1.5% in overnight trading as punters started to react to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. On the chart the GBP could run into resistance to the downside at the Fib level at 0.5170 (1.9350).

Current Level: 0.5182
Support: 0.5120
Resistance: 0.5235
Last week’s range: 0.5185- 0.5240

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been unable to hold early week levels around 0.6570 against the US Dollar (USD) dropping in overnight sessions to reach  0.6475. Risk sentiment waned as equity markets were mostly off around 1.5% as investors became nervous around tomorrow’s Fed agenda. Also of note was a weaker US consumer confidence number, the index falling to 97.0 from 103.1 the lowest level since July 2022. As we look ahead to tomorrow’s Fed meeting investors are becoming nervous about inflation expectations and the “higher for longer” mantra. Earlier we saw a drop in Australian Retail Sales falling 0.4% in March, weaker than market predictions, attracting sellers of AUD. Non-farm Payroll prints Friday to end a busy week of economic releases. The level in focus on the downside is 0.6450- a break past here and we could be eyeing 0.6400.

Current Level: 0.6475
Support: 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6640
Last week’s range: 0.6406- 0.6552