AUD

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Apart form the Australian Dollar (AUD) spiking to 0.6698 early in the week against the US Dollar (USD) the cross has been choppy ever since pivoting around 0.6650 areas. The Aussie did get a small boost from Australian Trade Balance which came in at a surplus of 6.55B. The Australian economy grew just 0.1% in the first 3 months of 2024, with growth particularly weak in March. Markets were looking for a 0.2% gain in the quarter but with slowing retail spending and soft household spending, household budgets remain under pressure. While relief is on the way in the form of tax cuts which kick in July, rate cuts are some way off. With central bank policy starting to diverge we could see further upside in the AUD. US Non-Farm Payroll prints tonight. We expect normal volatility.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6664

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6625- 0.6698

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended moves higher over the week against the US Dollar (USD) to reach 0.6210 as risk assets continue to do well. The big dollar slumped post ISM manufacturing data contracting in May for the second straight month. The new order index came in at 45.4 falling 3.7% points compared to April. US ADP also contracted in the month of May with numbers at 152,000 compared to 173,000 expected. This in turn led to the US treasury 10 year falling to a 2-month low. All eyes are on tonight Non-Farm Payroll release with expectations of a drop in the number of new people who found employment in May. The cross is trading just below the yearly high of 0.6280 and may find it tough to breach resistance at 0.6220.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6192

 

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6118- 0.6214

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to extend moves higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9330 (1.0720) in Thursday trading. Friday prices sit just off this around 0.9305 (1.0750) as I write. Wednesday’s Australian GDP came in lower at 0.1% compared to 0.2% expected surprising markets, the AUD slid further over the news. Governor Bullock making earlier comments suggesting if growth was lower the RBA would consider cutting interest rates. However, she also said post release that if inflation remained sticky the RBA could hike interest rates again if needed. It’s also worth noting that with a slide in iron ore prices and less of a demand in Chinese steel demand of late this has played a part in the weaker AUD. Next week will be quiet on the data front with just Australian unemployment numbers releasing.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9286 AUDNZD 1.0762

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9232- 0.9325 AUDNZD 1.0723- 1.0831

 

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved over the week to 0.5225 (1.9140) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling back towards 0.5200 (1.9240). Australian Retail Sales published down on expectation at 0.1% vs 0.3%, sending the AUD higher on the news before CPI y/y came in at 3.6% a surprise higher than the 3.4% markets were expecting. The RBA wont hike again but their rate cut campaign has been extended, with rates not predicted to be cut until early to mid-2025. Bouncing off the 50-day moving average the cross should extend lower retesting 0.5200 (1.9230) into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5209 GBPAUD 1.9175

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5196- 0.5225 GBPAUD 1.9136- 1.9242

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Australian Inflation forecasting just got murkier with price pressures weighing heavy. Australian CPI published at 3.6% in the 12 months to April compared with 3.5% forecast. The Bank of Australia warning that they have not forgotten about a possible hike on the horizon after inflation published higher than expected for the second straight month. We expect the RBA to hold rates higher for longer at 4.35% with the first rate cut not until early-mid 2025 depending largely on wage pressures. The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross traded below the bull trendline this week breaking past support at 0.6620 to 0.6590 in early Friday trading. Meanwhile US prelim GDP came in soft at 1.3% in the first quarter after 1.6% in the fourth quarter 2023 reflecting weaker consumer spending.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6634

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6589- 0.6679

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held around 0.4810 (2.0800) levels against the British Pound (GBP) for most of the week, the third week the cross has traded sideways. The Bank of England (BoE) could start cutting rates earlier than predicted in August even if wage growth and inflation remain stubbornly above the central bank’s 2.0% inflation target. We have seen the GBP weaken off over the past 5 week’s or so from the 0.4710 (2.1240) level, we expect further action to retest the resistance point at 0.4900 (2.0400) over the next couple of weeks.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4808 GBPNZD 2.0798

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4798- 0.4828 GBPNZD 2.0712- 2.0840

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

It’s been a game of two halves this week with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.6170 from 0.6115 only to drift back to 0.6090 Thursday against the US Dollar (USD). Prelim US GDP came in at 1.3%, higher than the 1.3% forecast and well below the 1.6% from the December quarter. The US economy growing at a slower pace than reported blaming softer consumer spending on goods and services. Repricing of Fed bets on rate cuts are being talked about with their rate cut path now predicted to be less aggressive. We still believe the NZD will keep improving, resistance lies at 0.6200 on the chart. However, with US PCE Inflation index to publish tonight, the feds favourite inflation barometer, which could show sluggish inflation we could see the NZD weaken off.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6121

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6083- 0.6169

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded to a 10-week high of 0.9260 (1.0800) against the Australian Dolar (AUD) Thursday but was unable to hold the level falling back to 0.9225 (1.0840) in early Friday. Aussie CPI released at 3.6% y/y up from 3.4% confirming interest rates won’t be hiked, rather cuts have been pushed out. Pressure remains to the downside after stalling out bang on the 50% fib level between the high of 0.9460 (1.0570) and low of 0.9075 (1.1020). The New Zealand 2024 budget to June 2024 is in deficit of 13.4B, returning to a surplus of 1.5B in the 2027-28 years. Downwardly revised GDP growth points to rising unemployment tipped to spike around 5.2%. We are picking the cross to revisit the support at 0.9175 (1.0900) in the coming days.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9225 AUDNZD 1.0830

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9218- 0.9261 AUDNZD 1.0797- 1.0848

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gave back 3 weeks of gains over the week reversing off 0.5280 (1.8940) to trade back at 0.5200 (1.9220) into Friday. The Aussie has been the worst performing currency on the main board this week. The RBA minutes confirmed the central bank considered raising rates at the May 7th meeting based on inflation staying above their target range for longer. UK CPI also pushed the cross lower with CPI coming in at 2.3% y/y higher than the 2.1% expected but dipping from March’s 3.2% the lowest level since July 2021. Downward pressure on energy prices the main cause along with food. The result will put pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates at their June meeting.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5195 GBPAUD 1.9249

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5197- 0.5281 GBPAUD 1.8935- 1.9240

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has suffered its worst week against the US Dollar (USD) since mid-April falling back from 0.6700 levels to 0.6600 as we head into Friday. A more hawkish leaning Fed minutes and some soft Aussie data has left the AUD struggling this week. US medium home sales hit a record high of 387,000 in the 4 weeks to 19 May up 4% from a year ago, meanwhile new home sales slumped in April by 4.7% from March an extraordinary release, however house stock numbers have been very low and may have skewed the report. With the cross dropping through the bottom of the bull channel this week around 0.6620 we may see further downside action to come. Next week’s Australian CPI is on our radar with expectations of the key figure dropping to 3.2% from 3.6% y/y

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6595

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6593- 0.6708