AUD

Range trading continues in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) pair this week. Last week’s moves were a reversal of the previous week with price shifting from the top of the range to the bottom. Currently sitting at 0.4805 (2.0812) as we head into the week. Support is 0.4800 (2.0860) and Resistance is 0.4850 (2.0620) on the chart- we look for a break outside of this zone to gauge further direction. On the Calendar we have the final days leading into the UK elections on the 4th of July.

Current Level: 0.4790
Resistance: 0.4855
Support: 0.4755
Last Weeks Range: 0.4794- 0.4848

Monday prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) extended off the weekly open at 0.9140 (1.0940) to reach 0.9115 (1.0970) early Tuesday. RBA monetary minutes from the meeting 18 June should confirm rhetoric of the RBA to hike 25 points at their August meeting due to ongoing inflationary pressures. The catalyst for the AUD being a top performing currency of late. The govt recently announced “cost of living” policies were inflationary, many debating if tax cuts and energy savings have been a good idea. Australian Retail Sales prints tomorrow and is expected to come in hot which won’t help the RBA situation. Its tough to see the kiwi pushing back in the near/medium term with predictions we could see a retest of the early May low at 0.9065 (1.1030)

Current Level: 1.0972
Resistance: 1.1030
Support: 1.0950
Last Weeks Range: 1.0832 – 1.0962

Monday prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) extended off the weekly open at 0.9140 (1.0940) to reach 0.9115 (1.0970) early Tuesday. RBA monetary minutes from the meeting 18 June should confirm rhetoric of the RBA to hike 25 points at their August meeting due to ongoing inflationary pressures. The catalyst for the AUD being a top performing currency of late. The govt recently announced “cost of living” policies were inflationary, many debating if tax cuts and energy savings have been a good idea. Australian Retail Sales prints tomorrow and is expected to come in hot which won’t help the RBA situation. Its tough to see the kiwi pushing back in the near/medium term with predictions we could see a retest of the early May low at 0.9065 (1.1030)

Current Level: 0.9104
Resistance: 0.9130
Support: 0.9065
Last Weeks Range: 0.9122-0.9232

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off a 6-week low at 0.6055 against the US Dollar (USD) to bounce back towards the weekly close around the 0.6100 zone. Monday saw a fall back to 0.6070 as the cross reversed off bear trend channel resistance. Last week’s Presidential Election leader debate wasn’t pretty with markets digesting prospects of a Trump Presidency. US-China trade bought on risk off tone with the US targeting Chinese AI technology. Downside pressure on the kiwi remains.

Current Level: 0.6056
Support: 0.6040
Resistance: 0.6150
Last week’s range: 0.6056- 0.6139

The Australian Dollar (AUD) 2 week run higher against the Euro (EUR) seems to have come to an end bouncing out of the bull trend from the low at 0.6100 (1.6400) to 0.6200 (1.6130) into Tuesday. Chart patterns are suggesting the recent run up has been exhausted with signals suggesting a move higher by the AUD is most likely if the cross can stay above 0.6185 (1.6170). Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow with a result expected to show a rise to recent inflation to 3.8% y/y from 3.6% possibly giving further upside bias to the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6136
Resistance: 1.6200
Support: 1.6020
Last Weeks Range: 1.6025- 1.6262

The Australian Dollar (AUD) 2 week run higher against the Euro (EUR) seems to have come to an end bouncing out of the bull trend from the low at 0.6100 (1.6400) to 0.6200 (1.6130) into Tuesday. Chart patterns are suggesting the recent run up has been exhausted with signals suggesting a move higher by the AUD is most likely if the cross can stay above 0.6185 (1.6170). Aussie CPI y/y prints tomorrow with a result expected to show a rise to recent inflation to 3.8% y/y from 3.6% possibly giving further upside bias to the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6197
Resistance: 0.6240
Support: 0.6170
Last Weeks Range: 0.6149- 0.6240

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retested the 5-week high at 0.5280 (1.8940) off the open against the British Pound (GBP) but has since surrendered giving back gains to 0.5245 (1.9070) this morning. The Pound initially coming under pressure from a dovish leaving Bank of England and softer UK PMI read. Risk off flow could see the Aussie get pushed lower this week, however Australian CPI could have the opposite effect. Markets are expecting May Inflation y/y to come in higher than the current 3.6% at 3.8%. This would be quite remarkable given the RBA are the only mainstream central bank still considering hikes.

Current Level: 1.9062
Resistance: 1.9230
Support: 1.8900
Last Weeks Range: 1.8955- 1.9236

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to the top of the recent range Monday to 0.4850 (2.0610) against the British Pound (GBP) before falling on risk flows Tuesday to 0.4830 (2.0710). The kiwi is still well above the moving average game line with bias to the downside. US Equities are trading at the bottom of the recent range with the Nasdaq down over 1% overnight also pulling on the NZD. Nuda on the calendar this week and a NZ holiday Friday should keep the cross reasonably unmoved.

Current Level: 2.0733
Resistance: 2.0900
Support: 2.0600
Last Weeks Range: 2.0610- 2.0798