AUD

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has rebounded lower off the 0.9160 (1.0920) high Monday to reach 0.9105 (1.0980) into Tuesday, after 3 weeks of gains the kiwi bull run could be over for the moment. We expect the AUD to continue its recovery this week with the Aussie better supported with optimism over tariff policy which supports Chinese manufacturers and trade. We think a retest of the 0.9050 (1.1050) area is on the cards. Those buying AUD should consider before a possible drop below 0.9000.

Current Level: 0.9107
Resistance: 0.9160
Support: 0.9020
Last Weeks Range: 0.9083 – 0.9166

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week on the back foot extending declines lower from 0.5830’s last week’s high against the US Dollar (USD) to trade around 0.5715 levels into Tuesday. Pressure for the kiwi remains to the downside after the stall at 0.5830 with global tension and trade tariff threats. The Fed’s Bostic signalled he only sees one cut in 2025 saying he doesn’t expect inflation to be under 2.0% until well into 2027 with businesses expected to pass on tariff expense to consumers. Big picture geopolitics should dominate how the cross trades this week. Strong support stands at 0.5680.

Current Level: 0.5724
Support: 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5830
Last week’s range: 0.5721 – 0.5830

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke past key daily resistance midweek through 0.9100 (1.0990) going on to post a fresh yearly high of 0.9170 (1.0905) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Weaker Aussie employment data yesterday is questioning the odds of a rate cut in May when numbers slipped around 80,000 in February from estimates. On the contrary NZ GDP growth perked up in the 4th quarter to 0.7% from third quarter’s -1.1% highlighting a stiff return out of recession. The NZD rising in small doses post the release. Forecasts are for the RBNZ to cut rates twice this year. Not sure I would wait for 0.9200 pricing before buying AUD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9134 AUDNZD 1.0938
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9090- 0.9165 AUDNZD 1.0910- 1.1000

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has underperformed over the second part of the weeks against the US Dollar (USD) falling back from 0.5830 to trade back at 0.5722 in early Friday. The kiwi however clawing back gains to 0.5750 at smoko. The Fed interest rate announcement came in at the expected 4.5% with no change. The Fed spoke about transitory inflation and balance sheet implications being the main takeaways. Overall a dovish read. The NZ economy departed its formal recession yesterday with a 0.7% print for the fourth quarter of 2024, coming in much higher than the 0.4% expected and third quarter’s -1.1%. The planned RBNZ cuts for 2025 shouldn’t be impacted with a further 25-50 points predicted. The kiwi still looks heavy and may slide lower towards the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5757
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5722- 0.5830

The Australian Dollar continued its pullback off 0.5740 (1.7415) mid last week to reach 0.5850 (1.7100) this morning against the Euro (EUR) as risk markets improved. German conservative leader Merz confirmed the Green Party is set to back his enormous financial plans for infrastructure totalling 500B Euro. After winning the election last week Merz said it was a priority to strengthen Europe based on the fate of the Trump administration. Aussie jobs numbers print Thursday and should be benign with unemployment numbers to remain at 4.1%.

Current Level: 1.7114
Resistance: 1.7350
Support: 1.6860
Last Weeks Range: 1.7100- 1.7417

The Australian Dollar continued its pullback off 0.5740 (1.7415) mid last week to reach 0.5850 (1.7100) this morning against the Euro (EUR) as risk markets improved. German conservative leader Merz confirmed the Green Party is set to back his enormous financial plans for infrastructure totalling 500B Euro. After winning the election last week Merz said it was a priority to strengthen Europe based on the fate of the Trump administration. Aussie jobs numbers print Thursday and should be benign with unemployment numbers to remain at 4.1%.

Current Level: 0.5843
Resistance: 0.5930
Support: 0.5765
Last Weeks Range: 0.5741- 0.5847

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off 0.4850 (2.0630) mid last week, the yearly low to claw back losses Monday to trade back around 0.4920 (2.0330) this morning against the British Pound (GBP). UK growth dipped into contraction territory while both Industrial Production and Manufacturing printed soft. Meanwhile markets look towards the Bank of England (BoE) policy announcement Friday with no change from the 4.5% cash rate predicted. We expect a dovish hold.

Current Level: 2.0354
Resistance: 2.0630
Support: 2.0220
Last Weeks Range: 2.0383 – 2.0625