AUD

Higher for longer- the RBA mantra keeps the AUD in control broadly, against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the AUD is slightly up this week trading at 0.9175 (1.0900) in early Tuesday. However, for any real price moves we will need to see the cross break outside the range between 0.9140 (1.0940) and 0.9215 (1.0850) we have seen over the last fortnight. With central bank divergence and fib levels coming into play we feel a retest of 0.9140 (1.0940) is most likely this week carving out a longer-term trend towards 0.9000 (1.1100). NZ Business confidence up at -1% from -44% q/q has given the kiwi a small push before Aussie Retail Sales releases later today.

Current Level: 1.0897
Resistance: 1.0950
Support: 1.0850
Last Weeks Range: 1.0848 – 1.0942

Higher for longer- the RBA mantra keeps the AUD in control broadly, against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the AUD is slightly up this week trading at 0.9175 (1.0900) in early Tuesday. However, for any real price moves we will need to see the cross break outside the range between 0.9140 (1.0940) and 0.9215 (1.0850) we have seen over the last fortnight. With central bank divergence and fib levels coming into play we feel a retest of 0.9140 (1.0940) is most likely this week carving out a longer-term trend towards 0.9000 (1.1100). NZ Business confidence up at -1% from -44% q/q has given the kiwi a small push before Aussie Retail Sales releases later today.

Current Level: 0.9165
Resistance: 0.9215
Support: 0.9130
Last Weeks Range: 0.9140 – 0.9218

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued to push into new territory last week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching a new 2024 high of 0.6340 surpassing the previous high around 0.6310 early in the New Year. Record closes in the DOW and S&P certainly have helped the kiwi along with a poor US consumer confidence read. The “big” dollar gave up ground broadly with the index falling below expectations to 98.7, the Fed strangely are still holding firm on non-aggressive easing. Monday prices have extended higher off the close to reach 0.6378 early this morning. Markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates now 75 points by the end of the year with a further 175-200 points cut in 2025. This week’s main release is US Non-farm payroll, we expect employed numbers to drop. Watch for a pullback of sorts this week towards 0.6300 levels.

Current Level: 0.6341
Support: 0.6250
Resistance: 0.6460
Last week’s range: 0.6220- 0.6366

The Euro (EUR) fell away sharply early week against all the main currency board, dropping to 1.6200 (0.6170) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after starting the week at 1.6400 (0.6100). The Euro has had one of the worst weeks in 2024 after PMI results and Manufacturing numbers all came in light. Not helping was the RBA which left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the hawkish tone by Governor Bullock rallied the AUD sighting awkward inflation and a strong labour market.

Current Level: 1.6231
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6315- 1.6535

The Euro (EUR) fell away sharply early week against all the main currency board, dropping to 1.6200 (0.6170) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after starting the week at 1.6400 (0.6100). The Euro has had one of the worst weeks in 2024 after PMI results and Manufacturing numbers all came in light. Not helping was the RBA which left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the hawkish tone by Governor Bullock rallied the AUD sighting awkward inflation and a strong labour market.

Current Level: 0.6161
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6047- 0.6129

It has been a volatile start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with prices very shifty. UK Manufacturing Monday printed below expectations at 51.5 compared to 52.3 sent the GBP lower to 1.9450 (0.5140) off 1.9530 (0.5120) before reversing losses back to  1.9560 (0.5110) towards yesterday’s RBA policy meeting. The Australian Central Bank left rates unchanged at 4.35% as we predicted and held tight on their “hawkish” tone blaming high inflation and a healthy labour market. This bought AUD buyers back sending prices to 0.5140 (1.9460) in early morning trading. Aussie CPI y/y prints later today expected to dip from 3.8% to around 2.8%- anything higher than 2.8% should rally the Aussie further.

Current Level: 1.9470
Resistance: 1.9570
Support: 1.9340
Last Weeks Range: 1.9396- 1.9603

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 1.7627
Resistance: 1.8000
Support: 1.7400
Last Weeks Range: 1.7821 – 1.8015

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 0.5673
Support: 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5550- 0.5611