The New Zealand Government has already said “don’t expect too much from this year’s annual budget”. The economy is close to stalling with inflation well over cooked. With Cyclone Gabrielle devastating parts of the country with massive clean-up and rebuilding cost required, it all leads to a deficit leading into the 2025 budget year. Risk off conditions rallied the greenback Thursday with more stress around the banking sector. US inflation expectations remain high with Fed member Bowman supporting further hikes, saying recently that recent CPI and employment reports have not provided consistent evidence that inflation is on a downward trajectory. NZ inflation expectations have fallen to 2.79% in the first Q down from 3.3% in the 4th quarter, the first time the data has been below 3.0% since 2021, this doesn’t mean the RBNZ are out of the woods just yet. Upside bias in the kiwi looks limited.
Current Level: 0.6252
Last Weeks Range: 0.6180-0.6382