FX News

FX Update: Weak Chinese Data Softens Risk Tone

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Chinese economic outlook spooks markets Monday with risk assets down across the board
• China’s jobless rate for 16–24-year-olds has hit its highest level ever recorded at 19.9%
• We are expecting similar rhetoric at Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting with the central bank predicted to hike rates from 2.5% to 3.0%. It’s highly probable we could see rates spike around the 3.75%, mark with another 50-point rise in October and more in November
• The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) were the biggest movers last week with the US Dollar (USD) losing ground post the CPI release
• Japan’s second quarter growth came in at 0.5% from 0.7% predicted avoiding slipping formally into recession after first quarter results were -0.2%
• New highs in US stocks were reported at Friday’s close with the Nasdaq leading the way up 1.5% reaching 13026
• UK Prelim GDP -0.1% vs -0.2% expected, prior was 0.8% as household consumption declines
• Crude oil is down over 3.0% overnight amid a statelate in the Iran deal with Tehran
• European gas prices have extended 10.7% on the day making benchmark TTF its highest close ever

Major Announcements last week:
US CPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.2% expected
US Producer prices prints -0.5% vs 0.2% expected
US Unemployment Claims 262k vs 264k predicted
UK GDP comes in at -0.1% – highlighting fears of a looming recession

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