FX News

FX Update: Risk Currencies Bounce

Key Points:

• Yield differentials between central banks could impact the kiwi attractiveness heading into 2024.
• The Ukraine counter-offensive has begun with NATO going all in as a show of strength to Russia, Ukraine claiming to have taken 7 settlements.
• Recent forecasts are predicting the UK to narrowly avoid drifting into a recession.
• Analysts are predicting the Federal Reserve could take rates to 6.0% over the next year increasing unemployment and increasing the chances of a recession.
• Eurozone PPI slipped 3.6% m/m in April from 3.0% following a 1.3% decline in March.
• US ISM Manufacturing Index fell from 51.9 to 50.3 in May showing a slower pace of expansion.
• US Jobless claims ending 3 June came in hot at 261K compared to 236K expected.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the standout performer in the month of May compared to the Japanese Yen (JPY) , the worst performing currency.

Major Announcements last week:

  • RBA raise interest rate to 4.10%
  • Australian GDP 1st quarter 0.2%
  • Bank of Canada raise rates from 4.5% to 4.75%
  • Chinese CPI y/y prints 0.2% after 0.1% in fourth quarter 2023
  • Canadian Unemployment rate jumpos from 5.1% to 5.2%
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