Market Overview
Key Points:
• IMF cuts 2022 US growth forecast to 2.9% saying the chances of avoiding a global recession is slim
• Macron and Biden were overheard speaking at the G7 meeting in Germany: rumour is the Saudis are running out of oil reserves which could go for 6 months- if this is true it could put massive pressure on oil prices
• Chinese industry fell 6.5% y/y in May, less than the 8.5% in April
• Russia defaults on its sovereign bond payments
• The ECB are forecasting a 25-point rise in their late 2 July meeting and a 50-point jump in September
• Gold is on the rise as the G7 nations plan to ban exports of gold bullion out of Russia
• The ANZ forecast the RBNZ to hike 50 points at the next policy meeting in July and August, previously this was 50 points and 25 points
• US May pending home sales 0.7% vs -3.7% predicted
• The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the strongest currency this week with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the weakest.
• Key Chinese cities show signs of reopening from strict covid lockdowns
Major Announcements last week:
- Canadian Retail Sales April 1.3% vs 0.5% expected
- UK CPI 9.1% y/y up from 9.0%
- UK Retail Sales April -0.5% vs -0.6%
- German ifo Business Climate 92.3 vs 92.8 expected
- Canadian CPI m/m 1.4% vs 1.0% expected
- Day 3 of the G7 meeting in Schloss, Germany