FX News

FX Update – Central Bank Risk

Market Overview:
Key Points:

• The Bank of Japan is expected to adjust monetary policy this week from their ultra loose stance
• We see a 25% chance the US will fall into recession over the next 12 months.
• NZ Trade Surplus showed a smaller month of June at NZD9M surplus compared to a consensus of NZD235M highlighted by a slowing global economy and the NZ recession weighing on imports.
• Analysts are predicting a hike in July and again in September to the ECB cash rate.
• The Fed is predicted to lift rates by 25 points to 5.50% Thursday at 6am NZT-we expect the normal volatility. Interest will be centred on any clues to if they will raise again or hold policy for some time.
• The ECB is expected to deliver a 25-point rise to its cash rate taking it to 4.25% with the ECB not done yet with rate hikes despite inflation softening recently from 6.1% to 5.5%.
• Latest IMF world growth forecast releases later today with expectations a further slide to growth from 2.9% in January to 2.8% is predicted in 2023.
• The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the strongest performer over the week with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performer.

Major Announcements last week:
Chinese GDP y/y prints lower at 6.3% vs 7.1% expected
US Retail Sales June 0.2% vs 0.5% predicted
NZ CPI y/y prints at 6.0% from 6.7% but higher than the 5.9% forecast
Australian Unemployment dips from 3.6% to 3.5%

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