FX News

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

UK Consumer Confidence slipped to -21 from -19 in January coming in well below forecast. This being said the British Pound (GBP) has managed to hold onto gains Monday extending last week’s rally from 1.9190 (0.5210) to 1.9400 (0.5155). Broad based momentum is firmly with the GBP after starting the year at 1.8250 (0.5480). We are picking a retest of the yearly low at 0.5120 (1.9520) over the coming days as the current trendline supports. Aussie Retail Sales at the end of the week could give us some AUD upside with predictions of a decent number printing.

Current Level: 0.5152
Support: 0.5130
Resistance: 0.5200
Last week’s range: 0.5173- 0.5210

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) slipped below the key moving average level at 0.6550 overnight falling to 0.6530 extending late last week’s drop. Aussie manufacturing numbers last week could still be impacting the currency while “risk” sentiment has certainly turned lower. Of note the cross has rebounded off the Fib 50% retracement level at 0.6580 also suggesting we could see more downside towards 0.6500. Fed member Waller has said: not lowering rates in the coming months and waiting too long- the Fed risks pushing the US economy into a recession.

Current Level: 0.6539
Support: 0.6520
Resistance: 0.6580
Last week’s range: 0.6520- 0.6594

FX News

EURO/NZD Transfer

For 6 weeks straight the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had the better of the Euro (EUR) coming from 0.5585 (1.7900) levels to 0.5735 (1.7440)  yesterday. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi give back a chunk of these gains to 0.5690 (1.7570) as ECB rate cuts exit the table. The NZD still needs to make a break below 0.5680 (1.7600) to clear the bear channel and signal a trend change to the downside. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting has most of us suggesting the central bank won’t hike interest rates past  5.50% but the rhetoric around future plans could move the cross.

Current Level: 1.7590
Resistance: 1.7700
Support: 1.7415
Last Weeks Range: 1.7438- 1.7597

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

For 6 weeks straight the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had the better of the Euro (EUR) coming from 0.5585 (1.7900) levels to 0.5735 (1.7440)  yesterday. Monday’s action has seen the kiwi give back a chunk of these gains to 0.5690 (1.7570) as ECB rate cuts exit the table. The NZD still needs to make a break below 0.5680 (1.7600) to clear the bear channel and signal a trend change to the downside. Tomorrow’s RBNZ policy meeting has most of us suggesting the central bank won’t hike interest rates past  5.50% but the rhetoric around future plans could move the cross.

Current Level: 0.5685
Support: 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5740
Last week’s range: 0.5682- 0.5734

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) rallied back Monday to 2.0560 (0.4865) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after trading around the 2.0400 (0.4900) areas late in the week. Clearing the 50-day moving average at 2.0510 (0.4875) we see further upside to come for the GBP. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting should reflect a “hold” on interest rates at 5.50% which could bring about further selling in the kiwi. We have nothing on the UK calendar this week.

Current Level: 2.0563
Resistance: 2.0650
Support: 2.0400
Last Weeks Range: 2.0372- 2.0578

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) rallied back Monday to 2.0560 (0.4865) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after trading around the 2.0400 (0.4900) areas late in the week. Clearing the 50-day moving average at 2.0510 (0.4875) we see further upside to come for the GBP. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting should reflect a “hold” on interest rates at 5.50% which could bring about further selling in the kiwi. We have nothing on the UK calendar this week.

Current Level: 0.4863
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4840
Last Weeks Range: 0.4859- 0.4908

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slid to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday but retraced and moved back to 0.9450 (1.0580) early Tuesday. A failed attempt at a reversal leaves the current bull trend in place. More upside for the kiwi look to be the likely scenario over the coming days. Tomorrow early afternoon we will get a flurry of excitement when Aussie CPI y/y is released followed 30 minutes later with the RBNZ rate announcement. Aussie CPI is predicted to come in above the current 3.4% while the jury is out on whether the RBNZ may hike from 5.50%. We think they will hold for now. Key resistance in the cross is around 0.9550 (1.0470) the 2 years high.

Current Level: 1.0590
Resistance: 1.0800
Support: 1.0470
Last Weeks Range: 1.0569- 1.0665

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slid to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday but retraced and moved back to 0.9450 (1.0580) early Tuesday. A failed attempt at a reversal leaves the current bull trend in place. More upside for the kiwi look to be the likely scenario over the coming days. Tomorrow early afternoon we will get a flurry of excitement when Aussie CPI y/y is released followed 30 minutes later with the RBNZ rate announcement. Aussie CPI is predicted to come in above the current 3.4% while the jury is out on whether the RBNZ may hike from 5.50%. We think they will hold for now. Key resistance in the cross is around 0.9550 (1.0470) the 2 years high.

Current Level: 0.9431
Resistance: 0.9550
Support: 0.9260
Last Weeks Range: 0.9376- 0.9460

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slumped Monday slipping from 0.6200 to 0.6160 in overnight action against the US Dollar (NZD). This morning the kiwi is a little stronger, consolidating around the 0.6180 area. Although the NZD has held its ground over the past couple of weeks, overall, the cross pressure remains to the downside after stalling in the run up to 0.6370 at year end. We would need a break above 0.6250 to confirm further upside. There is a 25% chance the RBNZ could hike rates from 5.5% tomorrow, we are not in this camp. However, if we see prices push higher towards 0.6200 today/tomorrow, this could imply markets are pricing this in.

Current Level: 0.6169
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6250
Last week’s range: 0.6107- 0.6217

 

FX News

FX update: markets await RBNZ

Market Overview

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets tomorrow and will most likely leave the cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. A small group of market analysts are suggesting the RBNZ could raise. We think it would be strange for the RBNZ to resume rate hikes in the face of downwardly revised growth revisions and inflation, of which should be back within target over the next 18 months.
• China is willing to work with New Zealand on a free trade agreement..
• The Federal Reserve predicts the greatest risk to rate cuts are geopolitical uncertainties, a cut prior to their 2% inflation target is achieved would be based on risks abroad.
• Over the past 2 years since the Russian war started against Ukraine western sanctions have failed to stop the war. The US has introduced a raft of new sanctions over the past week to punish Moscow.
• The S&P, Dow Jones and the Nasdaq will all close out February in the green marking 4 straight months of gains.
• The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the strongest currency this month while the weakest currency in February has been the Japanese Yen (JPY)