FX News

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.5120 (1.9520) late in the week to claw back gains to 0.5190 (1.9260) this morning against the British Pound (GBP). Momentum to the downside has been broken with price travelling through the 0.5180 (1.9300) channel resistance area on its way to posting a fortnight high. RBA minutes releases today from their first meeting of 2024, the central bank will no doubt reiterate their concerns of high inflation and their call to hike if needed. Wednesday’s wage price index should confirm upside risks to wage growth and further work required from the RBA. We expect the Aussie to do well over the week.

Current Level: 0.5184
Support: 0.5125
Resistance: 0.5210
Last week’s range: 0.5120- 0.5195

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a boost over the weekend after chat from Former RBA Kearns suggesting the cash rate was not high enough. With inflation still an issue it would be a long time before the RBA thought about cutting rates. Monday’s action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross was thin with Presidents Day long weekend. The AUD/USD is perched around 0.6530 with perhaps a tad downside bias in early Tuesday. Fed minutes Thursday before manufacturing data and existing home sales are the key prints to come. We struggle to see the Aussie pushing past 0.6550 and may retrace moves.

Current Level: 0.6524
Support: 0.6450
Resistance: 0.6570
Last week’s range: 0.6441- 0.6542

FX News

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 1.7559
Resistance: 1.7900
Support: 1.7500
Last Weeks Range: 1.7516- 1.7699

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked higher into the close and extended in early week trading to reach 0.5710 (1.7515) against the Euro (EUR). The cross looks to target the yearly high from early January around 0.5740 (1.7420) as the kiwi gains pace. ECB president Lagarde was on the wires saying “we need to be more confident” that inflation is on track to hit its 2% target before considering rate cuts. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday and could come in much less than expected for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.5695
Support: 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5715
Last week’s range: 0.5650- 0.5709

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) late in the week and into Monday’s open to 0.4890 (2.0450) This is a significant shift in momentum from mid last week’s action around 0.4800 (2.0820) and shows a trend change. UK Retail Sales came in above expectations of 1.5% at 3.4% after -3.3% prior. This boosted the Pound only briefly. On the chart the fib 50% retracement from the low at 0.4780 (2.0910) and the high at 0.5000 (2.0000) has been breached at 0.4880 (2.0500) signalling further upside could be instore for the kiwi.

Current Level: 2.0525
Resistance: 2.0770
Support: 2.0400
Last Weeks Range: 2.0518- 2.0816

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains on the British Pound (GBP) late in the week and into Monday’s open to 0.4890 (2.0450) This is a significant shift in momentum from mid last week’s action around 0.4800 (2.0820) and shows a trend change. UK Retail Sales came in above expectations of 1.5% at 3.4% after -3.3% prior. This boosted the Pound only briefly. On the chart the fib 50% retracement from the low at 0.4780 (2.0910) and the high at 0.5000 (2.0000) has been breached at 0.4880 (2.0500) signalling further upside could be instore for the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.4872
Resistance: 0.4900
Support: 0.4815
Last Weeks Range: 0.4804- 0.4873

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

A light calendar week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen the pair stretch out Monday continuing last week’s move higher through 0.9400 (1.0640), posting 0.9415 (1.0620) this morning. RBNZ rate cut predictions seem to be a hot talking point with analysts uncertain of upcoming timing, we have seen reports range from June to November. The RBA minutes highlighted Governor Bullock is undecided on whether the RBA will hike or cut at the next policy meeting. NZ Retail Sales Friday could print worse than expected putting pressure on the kiwi.

Current Level: 1.0632
Resistance: 1.0800
Support: 1.0580
Last Weeks Range: 1.0586- 1.0701

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

A light calendar week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen the pair stretch out Monday continuing last week’s move higher through 0.9400 (1.0640), posting 0.9415 (1.0620) this morning. RBNZ rate cut predictions seem to be a hot talking point with analysts uncertain of upcoming timing, we have seen reports range from June to November. The RBA minutes highlighted Governor Bullock is undecided on whether the RBA will hike or cut at the next policy meeting. NZ Retail Sales Friday could print worse than expected putting pressure on the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.9398
Resistance: 0.9450
Support: 0.9260
Last Weeks Range: 0.9344- 0.9446

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Bank holiday in the US made for a slow start to the week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) taking advantage of thin liquidity pushing up towards 0.6150 this morning. Stiff resistance is seen at 0.6160, if we see a push through this area the kiwi could test the 0.6200 level. Fed rate predictions have been tough to pick with expectations now the Fed will cut 3 times in 2024- this is down from 7 in January. This has all come about based on a less dovish Fed, stronger jobs data and a hotter inflation read last week. NZ Retail Sales releases Friday for the December quarter.

Current Level: 0.6134
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6170
Last week’s range: 0.6048- 0.6151

 

FX News

FX update: Rate hikes the talk

Market Overview

  • US Bank Holiday – Presidents Day Monday made for a quiet start to trading.
  • PBOC leaves the MLF – (Medium Term Lending Facility) unchanged at 2.5%. A third of all analysts had predicted a small cut.
  • The UK House Price Index has risen 0.9% m/m in February, the first rise in 6 months.
  • Ex President Donald Trump has lost a civil fraud case in NY. He has been accused of inflating the price of his assets to obtain higher more favourable lending. He will need to get his cheque book out to the tune of 364 million. He is also barred from running any business in the state for 3 years.
  • The Labour market in NZ is easing along with inflation coming down, this will be enough for the RBNZ to consider not hiking rates when the central bank meets on the 28th of February.
  • ASB says we may see the RBNZ hike next week with a November cut.
  • The US Dollar (USD) has been the strongest currency this month while the weakest currency has been the Japanese Yen (JPY).