NZD/EURO Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 0.5673
Support: 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5550- 0.5611

GBP/NZD Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 2.1150
Resistance: 2.1350
Support: 2.1000
Last Weeks Range: 2.1162- 2.1370

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) kicked off the week well against the British Pound (GBP) gaining almost immediately off 0.4685 (2.1350) levels to 0.4705 (2.1260). UK Manufacturing in August came in below expectations at 51.5 against 52.3 indicating a slowed rate of economic recovery from June. The Kiwi jumped on the back of the AUD rise post the RBA rate hold yesterday along with fresh record highs in the DOW and S&P it has posted 0.4730 (2.1140) this morning.

Current Level: 0.4728
Resistance: 0.4760
Support: 0.4685
Last Weeks Range: 0.4679- 0.4725

AUD/NZD Transfer

We have been a little unsure how the AUD has lost ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week, the kiwi starting well clocking 0.9140 (1.0940) but was unable to hold this level heading into the RBA meeting Tuesday. The RBA held their cash rate at 4.35% in a hawkish read, Governor Bullock saying it’s premature to be thinking about cuts with strong jobs data and stubborn inflation. Today’s Australian CPI y/y should post a decent fall form 3.8% to around 2.8% – perhaps markets are pricing this in allowing for a softer AUD?. We certainly don’t expect to much downside in the AUD towards the weekly close and beyond.

Current Level: 1.0857
Resistance: 1.10950
Support: 1.0780
Last Weeks Range: 1.0861 – 1.0944

NZD/AUD Transfer

We have been a little unsure how the AUD has lost ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week, the kiwi starting well clocking 0.9140 (1.0940) but was unable to hold this level heading into the RBA meeting Tuesday. The RBA held their cash rate at 4.35% in a hawkish read, Governor Bullock saying it’s premature to be thinking about cuts with strong jobs data and stubborn inflation. Today’s Australian CPI y/y should post a decent fall form 3.8% to around 2.8% – perhaps markets are pricing this in allowing for a softer AUD?. We certainly don’t expect to much downside in the AUD towards the weekly close and beyond.

Current Level: 0.9205
Resistance: 0.9275
Support: 0.9130
Last Weeks Range: 0.9137 – 0.9207

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push into new territory this week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching a new 2024 high of 0.6340 surpassing the previous high around 0.6310 early in the New Year. Record closes in the DOW and S&P certainly have helped the kiwi along with a poor US consumer confidence read overnight. The “big” dollar gave up ground broadly overnight with the index falling below expectations to 98.7, the Fed strangely are still holding firm on non-aggressive easing. Markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates now 75 points by the end of the year with a further 175-200 points cut in 2025. We have US home sales data publishing towards the end of the week. A pullback in the NZD below 0.6300 is expected. Buying USD- “fill ya boots”

 

Current Level: 0.6348
Support: 0.6250
Resistance: 0.6500
Last week’s range: 0.6151- 0.6266

 

FX Update: Fed in focus

Market Overview

 

  • Australian CPI y/y due today, we expect inflation to fall by 1.0%.
  • The ECB could cut rates more cautiously into 2026 which could put the EUR under pressure.
  • China have announced multiple “stimulus measures” to boost the economy.
  • The NZD in theory should be trading a lot lower against the greenback, perhaps around 0.5800 levels, however the currency is being propped up by a weakening reserve.
  • Record closes in US equity indices boost risk currencies.
  • Conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up Crude Oil prices by 4% overnight to 71.50.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates inline with trending higher inflation.
  • The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the best performing currency over the last week while the Japanese Yen (JPY) was the worst performer.

Calendar of Economic Releases

Monday September 23rd
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
7:15pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 44.3 Previous 43.9
7:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI Forecast 53 Previous 55
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 42.4 Previous 42.4
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI Forecast 51.1 Previous 51.2
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 45.7 Previous 45.8
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI Forecast 52.3 Previous 52.9
8:30pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 52.3 Previous 52.5
8:30pm GBP Flash Services PMI Forecast 53.5 Previous 53.7

Tuesday September 24th
1:45am USD Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 48.6 Previous 47.9
1:45am USD Flash Services PMI Forecast 55.3 Previous 55.7
4:30pm AUD Cash Rate Forecast 4.35% Previous 4.35%
4:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement
5:05pm JPY BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
5:30pm AUD RBA Press Conference
8:00pm EUR German ifo Business Climate Forecast 86.1 Previous 86.6 Read more

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England (BoE) left monetary policy on hold at 5.00% last night as expected but members were split over the decision 1-8. Governor Bailey saying they should be able to cut rates “gradually” overtime. The British Pound (GBP) was firmer post the announcement kicking off 1.9400 (0.5155) to 1.9500 (0.5130) over the last few hours. Earlier the Australian jobs data improved the AUD on better than expected August numbers with 47,500 more people entering the jobs market compared to 26,000 expected. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. Next week’s RBA cash rate will remain at 4.35% and should bring buyers back into AUD.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5127 GBPAUD 1.9504

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5101- 0.5155 GBPAUD 1.9396- 1.9603

 

AUD/USD Transfer

We have seen a slew of economic releases publish over the past couple of days moving the Australian Dollar eventually higher to 0.6830 into Friday sessions against the US Dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve cut rates yesterday morning by 50 points to 5.00% surprising markets based 25-point forecasts. The AUD shot lower weirdly to post 0.6740 before Australian jobs data later in the day pushed the AUD back towards 0.6830 where it should have been earlier. Unemployment numbers were better than predictions and the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. As wage growth has remained buoyant this has led to inflation struggling to return to the RBA’s target, this being said the RBA will hold their cash rate at 4.35% next Tuesday. We expect further upside moves to continue to push into fresh yearly highs past 0.6830.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6810

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6688- 0.6838