FX News

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ticked lower to end the week around 0.6150 against the US Dollar (USD) perhaps the decline in NZ home sales may have dragged down the kiwi. Into Tuesday morning things are looking better for risk currencies with the NZD making back earlier losses to the 0.6200 level. Odds of a bigger cut to the OCR have increased to around 50% of a 50-point drop in October, we expect to see the NZD capped around the 0.6230 this week. We have a lot of economic releases over the week including The Fed interest rate release predicted to dip from 5.50% to 5.25%.

Current Level: 0.6195
Support: 0.6120
Resistance: 0.6240
Last week’s range: 0.6105- 0.6192

The Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped to 0.6020 (1.6620) Friday against the Euro (EUR) after succumbing to a risk off market tone in the wake of global recession risks. It has bounced back Monday to 0.6040 (1.6560) and should improve if commodity markets correct higher over the week. The European Central Bank (ECB) announce their cash rate Friday night and are widely predicted to drop their interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65% or 50 points following their 25-point cut in June. Eurozone inflation is certainly improving, cooling from 2.6% in July to 2.2% in August. We fancy a retest of support at the 0.6100 (1.6400) level.

Current Level: 1.6586
Resistance: 1.6700
Support: 1.6450
Last Weeks Range: 1.6281- 1.6626

The Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped to 0.6020 (1.6620) Friday against the Euro (EUR) after succumbing to a risk off market tone in the wake of global recession risks. It has bounced back Monday to 0.6040 (1.6560) and should improve if commodity markets correct higher over the week. The European Central Bank (ECB) announce their cash rate Friday night and are widely predicted to drop their interest rate from 4.25% to 3.65% or 50 points following their 25-point cut in June. Eurozone inflation is certainly improving, cooling from 2.6% in July to 2.2% in August. We fancy a retest of support at the 0.6100 (1.6400) level.

Current Level: 0.6029
Resistance: 0.6080
Support: 0.5990
Last Weeks Range: 0.6014- 0.6142

Momentum in the British Pound (GBP) continues through last week off 0.5170 (1.9350) areas against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to reach 0.5075 (1.9700) in overnight trading. Risk flows have favoured safe haven currencies since last week’s US Non-Farm Payroll release raising questions around global growth concerns. Moving averages are signalling further pain for the AUD after clearing the 0.5130 (1.95) zone, we expect downside moves to dominate price action this week.

Current Level: 1.9642
Resistance: 1.9800
Support: 1.9520
Last Weeks Range: 1.9340- 1.9686

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was looking good 10 days ago when it posted a 7-week high of 0.5665 (1.7650) against the Euro (EUR). It’s been all downhill since for the NZD retracing moves to 0.5550 (1.8030) Monday- most of this based on risk averse sentiment and downgraded global forecasts. Key Fib levels are signalling possible moves back towards a retest of the 23.6% resistance point at 0.5600 (1.7865), however most off this will depend on Friday’s European Central Bank (ECB) cash rate announcement when markets expect the ECB to cut from 4.25% to 3.65% resuming its easing policy from the high at 4.50% in April.

Current Level: 1.7982
Resistance: 1.8120
Support: 1.7670
Last Weeks Range: 1.7663 – 1.7984

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was looking good 10 days ago when it posted a 7-week high of 0.5665 (1.7650) against the Euro (EUR). It’s been all downhill since for the NZD retracing moves to 0.5550 (1.8030) Monday- most of this based on risk averse sentiment and downgraded global forecasts. Key Fib levels are signalling possible moves back towards a retest of the 23.6% resistance point at 0.5600 (1.7865), however most off this will depend on Friday’s European Central Bank (ECB) cash rate announcement when markets expect the ECB to cut from 4.25% to 3.65% resuming its easing policy from the high at 4.50% in April.

Current Level: 0.5561
Support: 0.5520
Resistance: 0.5660
Last week’s range: 0.5560- 0.5661