FX News

FX News

FX Update: NZD and AUD post 2024 highs against the greenback

Market Overview

  • Risk currencies continue to push higher on monetary policy divergence.
  • The US economy grew by 3% y/y (GDP) in the second quarter 2024.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) offered no surprises at their minutes signalling more hikes on the radar.
  • NZ Consumer Confidence rose from 92.2 to 95.1 in September.
  • US jobless claims increased less than predicted last week, the unemployed rising 218,000 vs 224,000 up from 222,000 last week.
  • Crude Oil falls sharply as Saudi look to increase supply.
  • ECB President Lagarde speaking Monday said: Rates will be kept sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary- “looking ahead the suppressed level of some survey indicators suggests that the recovery is facing headwinds.”
  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the best performing currency over the month of September while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been the worst performer.
FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Sunday September 29th
3:00am NZD Daylight Saving Time Shift

Monday September 30th
1:00pm NZD ANZ Business Confidence Previous 50.6
2:30pm CNY Manufacturing PMI Forecast 49.4 Previous 49.1
2:30pm CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.4 Previous 50.3
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m Forecast 0.10% Previous -0.10%

Tuesday October 1st
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:00am EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
2:45am USD Chicago PMI Forecast 46.1 Previous 46.1
6:55am USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Tentative NZD NZIER Business Confidence Previous -44
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
2:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m Forecast 0.40% Previous 0.00%
10:00pm EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y Forecast 2.70% Previous 2.80%
10:00pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y Forecast 1.90% Previous 2.20% Read more

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher to start the week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6890- the 3rd week it has outperformed the greenback from the low of 0.6625 in early September. The RBA held their cash rate as we expected at 4.35% Tuesday as widely expected initially sending the AUD lower before markets pushed the antipodean currency higher post the central bank statement releasing. The RBA maintained their “hawkish” stance by saying the labour market remains strong and inflation still has a way to go. Also boosting the AUD was a massive Chinese economic boost to revive household spending and real estate demand. Today’s Australian inflation read y/y 1.30pm NZT should drop from 3.8% and will give us more swings in the pair. Taking out this currency risk by buying USD prior would be a good plan.

Current Level: 0.6895
Resistance: 0.67000
Support: 0.6800
Last Weeks Range: 0.6688- 0.6838

 

FX News

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Euro (EUR) fell away sharply early week against all the main currency board, dropping to 1.6200 (0.6170) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after starting the week at 1.6400 (0.6100). The Euro has had one of the worst weeks in 2024 after PMI results and Manufacturing numbers all came in light. Not helping was the RBA which left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the hawkish tone by Governor Bullock rallied the AUD sighting awkward inflation and a strong labour market.

Current Level: 1.6231
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6315- 1.6535

FX News

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Euro (EUR) fell away sharply early week against all the main currency board, dropping to 1.6200 (0.6170) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after starting the week at 1.6400 (0.6100). The Euro has had one of the worst weeks in 2024 after PMI results and Manufacturing numbers all came in light. Not helping was the RBA which left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected but the hawkish tone by Governor Bullock rallied the AUD sighting awkward inflation and a strong labour market.

Current Level: 0.6161
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6047- 0.6129

FX News

GBP/AUD Transfer

It has been a volatile start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with prices very shifty. UK Manufacturing Monday printed below expectations at 51.5 compared to 52.3 sent the GBP lower to 1.9450 (0.5140) off 1.9530 (0.5120) before reversing losses back to  1.9560 (0.5110) towards yesterday’s RBA policy meeting. The Australian Central Bank left rates unchanged at 4.35% as we predicted and held tight on their “hawkish” tone blaming high inflation and a healthy labour market. This bought AUD buyers back sending prices to 0.5140 (1.9460) in early morning trading. Aussie CPI y/y prints later today expected to dip from 3.8% to around 2.8%- anything higher than 2.8% should rally the Aussie further.

Current Level: 1.9470
Resistance: 1.9570
Support: 1.9340
Last Weeks Range: 1.9396- 1.9603

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

It has been a volatile start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with prices very shifty. UK Manufacturing Monday printed below expectations at 51.5 compared to 52.3 sent the GBP lower to 1.9450 (0.5140) off 1.9530 (0.5120) before reversing losses back to  1.9560 (0.5110) towards yesterday’s RBA policy meeting. The Australian Central Bank left rates unchanged at 4.35% as we predicted and held tight on their “hawkish” tone blaming high inflation and a healthy labour market. This bought AUD buyers back sending prices to 0.5140 (1.9460) in early morning trading. Aussie CPI y/y prints later today expected to dip from 3.8% to around 2.8%- anything higher than 2.8% should rally the Aussie further.

Current Level: 0.5136
Support: 0.5110
Resistance: 0.5170
Last week’s range: 0.5101- 0.5155

FX News

EURO/NZD Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 1.7627
Resistance: 1.8000
Support: 1.7400
Last Weeks Range: 1.7821 – 1.8015

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 0.5673
Support: 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5550- 0.5611

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 2.1150
Resistance: 2.1350
Support: 2.1000
Last Weeks Range: 2.1162- 2.1370