FX News

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

It has been a volatile start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with prices very shifty. UK Manufacturing Monday printed below expectations at 51.5 compared to 52.3 sent the GBP lower to 1.9450 (0.5140) off 1.9530 (0.5120) before reversing losses back to  1.9560 (0.5110) towards yesterday’s RBA policy meeting. The Australian Central Bank left rates unchanged at 4.35% as we predicted and held tight on their “hawkish” tone blaming high inflation and a healthy labour market. This bought AUD buyers back sending prices to 0.5140 (1.9460) in early morning trading. Aussie CPI y/y prints later today expected to dip from 3.8% to around 2.8%- anything higher than 2.8% should rally the Aussie further.

Current Level: 0.5136
Support: 0.5110
Resistance: 0.5170
Last week’s range: 0.5101- 0.5155

FX News

EURO/NZD Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 1.7627
Resistance: 1.8000
Support: 1.7400
Last Weeks Range: 1.7821 – 1.8015

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 0.5673
Support: 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week’s range: 0.5550- 0.5611

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

It’s been all one-way traffic this week in the cross with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains to 0.5675 (1.7620) this morning. Most importantly in the move the kiwi has pushed past heavy resistance at 0.5660 (1.7670) and now looks to breach the long-term level at 0.5750 (1.7400) the 2024 high. The Euro struggling after a “misfire” in the latest Manufacturing numbers, the worst since July 2023.

Current Level: 2.1150
Resistance: 2.1350
Support: 2.1000
Last Weeks Range: 2.1162- 2.1370

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) kicked off the week well against the British Pound (GBP) gaining almost immediately off 0.4685 (2.1350) levels to 0.4705 (2.1260). UK Manufacturing in August came in below expectations at 51.5 against 52.3 indicating a slowed rate of economic recovery from June. The Kiwi jumped on the back of the AUD rise post the RBA rate hold yesterday along with fresh record highs in the DOW and S&P it has posted 0.4730 (2.1140) this morning.

Current Level: 0.4728
Resistance: 0.4760
Support: 0.4685
Last Weeks Range: 0.4679- 0.4725

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

We have been a little unsure how the AUD has lost ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week, the kiwi starting well clocking 0.9140 (1.0940) but was unable to hold this level heading into the RBA meeting Tuesday. The RBA held their cash rate at 4.35% in a hawkish read, Governor Bullock saying it’s premature to be thinking about cuts with strong jobs data and stubborn inflation. Today’s Australian CPI y/y should post a decent fall form 3.8% to around 2.8% – perhaps markets are pricing this in allowing for a softer AUD?. We certainly don’t expect to much downside in the AUD towards the weekly close and beyond.

Current Level: 1.0857
Resistance: 1.10950
Support: 1.0780
Last Weeks Range: 1.0861 – 1.0944

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

We have been a little unsure how the AUD has lost ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week, the kiwi starting well clocking 0.9140 (1.0940) but was unable to hold this level heading into the RBA meeting Tuesday. The RBA held their cash rate at 4.35% in a hawkish read, Governor Bullock saying it’s premature to be thinking about cuts with strong jobs data and stubborn inflation. Today’s Australian CPI y/y should post a decent fall form 3.8% to around 2.8% – perhaps markets are pricing this in allowing for a softer AUD?. We certainly don’t expect to much downside in the AUD towards the weekly close and beyond.

Current Level: 0.9205
Resistance: 0.9275
Support: 0.9130
Last Weeks Range: 0.9137 – 0.9207

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push into new territory this week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching a new 2024 high of 0.6340 surpassing the previous high around 0.6310 early in the New Year. Record closes in the DOW and S&P certainly have helped the kiwi along with a poor US consumer confidence read overnight. The “big” dollar gave up ground broadly overnight with the index falling below expectations to 98.7, the Fed strangely are still holding firm on non-aggressive easing. Markets are expecting the Fed to cut rates now 75 points by the end of the year with a further 175-200 points cut in 2025. We have US home sales data publishing towards the end of the week. A pullback in the NZD below 0.6300 is expected. Buying USD- “fill ya boots”

 

Current Level: 0.6348
Support: 0.6250
Resistance: 0.6500
Last week’s range: 0.6151- 0.6266

 

FX News

FX Update: Fed in focus

Market Overview

 

  • Australian CPI y/y due today, we expect inflation to fall by 1.0%.
  • The ECB could cut rates more cautiously into 2026 which could put the EUR under pressure.
  • China have announced multiple “stimulus measures” to boost the economy.
  • The NZD in theory should be trading a lot lower against the greenback, perhaps around 0.5800 levels, however the currency is being propped up by a weakening reserve.
  • Record closes in US equity indices boost risk currencies.
  • Conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up Crude Oil prices by 4% overnight to 71.50.
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates inline with trending higher inflation.
  • The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the best performing currency over the last week while the Japanese Yen (JPY) was the worst performer.
FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Monday September 23rd
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
7:15pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 44.3 Previous 43.9
7:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI Forecast 53 Previous 55
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 42.4 Previous 42.4
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI Forecast 51.1 Previous 51.2
8:00pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 45.7 Previous 45.8
8:00pm EUR Flash Services PMI Forecast 52.3 Previous 52.9
8:30pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 52.3 Previous 52.5
8:30pm GBP Flash Services PMI Forecast 53.5 Previous 53.7

Tuesday September 24th
1:45am USD Flash Manufacturing PMI Forecast 48.6 Previous 47.9
1:45am USD Flash Services PMI Forecast 55.3 Previous 55.7
4:30pm AUD Cash Rate Forecast 4.35% Previous 4.35%
4:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement
5:05pm JPY BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks
5:30pm AUD RBA Press Conference
8:00pm EUR German ifo Business Climate Forecast 86.1 Previous 86.6 Read more