Monday 24/01
9:30pm, EUR, German Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 56.9
Previous 57.4
9:30pm, EUR, German Flash Services PMI
Forecast 47.9
Previous 48.7
Tuesday 25/01
1:30pm, AUD, CPI q/q
Forecast 1.00%
Previous 0.80%
1:30pm, AUD, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
Forecast 0.70%
Previous 0.70%
Wednesday 26/01
All Day, AUD, Bank Holiday Read more
Monday 17/01
3pm, CNY, GDP q/y
Forecast: 3.30%
Previous: 4.90%
Tuesday 18/01
All Day, USD, Bank Holiday
Tentative, JPY, BOJ Outlook Report
Wednesday 19/01
8pm, GBP, CPI y/y
Forecast: 5.20%
Previous: 5.10% Read more
This will be the last commentary for 2021. We will be back with our first commentary for the 2022 year in the second week of January.
We appreciate all your comments and support over what has been an unprecedented year!
We are only closed for the statutory holidays and will be open for trading on the days in between Christmas and New Year.
We would like to wish all our clients a Happy Christmas and safe start to what we all hope will be a much improved New Year.
The Direct FX Crew; Nev, Glenn and team
Key Points:
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 275.826 million with over 5.377 million official
deaths.
New Zealand has 2219 active cases of coronavirus with 95 new cases today and 1 death. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 2213 new cases and 1 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1510 new cases with 7 deaths
RBA governor Lowe reiterates he is in no hurry to raise interest rates
NZ Consumer Confidence data 98.3 in December from November’s 96.6
The Bank of Japan has upgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time since mid 2020
Equity markets trade off recent lows back in the black this week, an early christmas present for investors
NZ will reduce the covid vaccine booster gap wait from 6 months to 4 months due to Omicron
The United States Dollar (USD will close out 2021 as the strongest main currency with the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the weakest. What’s interesting about this is that both are considered ‘safe haven” currencies.
Tuesday 21/12
1:30pm, AUD, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday 22/12
2:30am, CAD, Core Retail Sales m/m
Forecast: 1.70%
Previous: -0.20%
2:30am, CAD, Retail Sales m/m
Forecast: 1.00%
Previous: -0.60%
Thursday 23/12
2:30am, USD, Final GDP q/q
Forecast: 2.10%
Previous: 2.10%
4am, USD, CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 110.5
Previous: 109.5
4am, USD, Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 6.55M
Previous: 6.34M
Tentative, JPY, BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Read more
Key Points:
• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 266.565 million with over 5.275 million official deaths.
• New Zealand has 6350 active cases of coronavirus with 136 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 208 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1073 new cases with 6 deaths
• RBNZ deputy governor expects the unemployment rate to drift up to 4.0%
• Bank of England’s Broadbent said he is unsure of how omicron will affect his interest rate decisions with no clear answers at the moment
• 3 reasons why we may see an improvement this week in risk- omicron may be less severe than the delta variant, Fed hawkishness, Friday’s dip to risk may be an overreaction
• ECB’s Lagarde- It’s very unlikely to see rate hikes in 2022
• The CAD is the strongest currency this week with the Japanese Yen the weakest on the main board Read more
Key Points:
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 264.365 million with over 5.248 million official deaths.
New Zealand has 6100 active cases of coronavirus with 174 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 337 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1188 new cases with 11 deaths
Auckland pubs, restaurants and cafes open the doors to the double vaccinated as the country enters the traffic light system
The US and EU have issued a joint statement saying they have strong concerns over China’s actions in the South and East China seas and the Taiwan Strait
The JPY is the strongest currency this week with the Australian Dollar the weakest on the main board
If the omicron variant fades we should see a marked improvement in the NZD
Market Overview
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 260.178 million with over 5.197 million official deaths.
New Zealand has 5710 active cases of coronavirus with 185 new cases today and 0 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 150 new cases and 0 deaths yesterday with Victoria reporting 1061 new cases with 4 deaths
Federal Reserve chairman Powell says higher inflation will “linger” well into the New Year pushing up pandemic related supply demand
US Military raises alert to DEFCON 4
Early evidence of the new covid variant Omicron shows risks are high and that future outbreaks of the variant could hold severe consequences Read more
Tuesday 30/11
8am, CAD, BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
9:05am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday 01/12
2:30am, CAD, GDP m/m
Forecast: 0.0%
Previous: 0.4%
4am, USD, Fed Chair Powell Testifies
1:30pm, AUD, GDP q/q
Forecast: -2.5%
Previous: 0.7% Read more
Key Points:
Market Overview
• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 258.298 million with over 5.173 million official
deaths.
• New Zealand has 4614 active cases of coronavirus with 205 new cases today and 2 deaths. Meanwhile, the Australian State of New South Wales reported 180 new cases and 1 death yesterday with Victoria reporting 1029 new cases with 3 deaths
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been re-elected, his second term will end February 2026
• ECB’s Knot has said he sees no indication that inflation will keep going up past expectations
• We see a 30% chance that the RBNZ will raise rates by 50 points tomorrow
• China sees rate cut of 25 points by the end of 2021
• Australia flash OPMI for November – Index 58.5 vs expected 60.7- Services 55.0 vs 52.7 expected
• The AUD is the strongest and the Japanese Yen is the weakest main board currency this week Read more