Sunday October 6th
5:00am AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift
Monday October 7th
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
All Day CNY Bank Holiday
Tuesday October 8th
1:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday October 9th
2:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate | Forecast 4.75% | Previous 5.25%
2:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
Thursday October 10th
3:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories | Previous 3.9M
7:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
10th-15th CNY New Loans | Forecast 1090B | Previous 900B Read more
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been a top performer across the main board of currencies this week based on the only central back looking to delay rates until early next year, this has created divergence in currency movements. However, we have still seen a slide to 0.6830 over the week but the drops have been well supported compared to other currencies which have freefallen. Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles into Israel earlier in the week, Israel’s Netanyahu vowing to fight back with force. Risks of full-blown war in the region are real with market appetite to take on “risk” products poor. Attention now is with US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) tomorrow morning, anything softer than forecast could highlight the need by the Fed to cut rates deeper. Downside risks in the AUD remain.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6843
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6828- 0.6941
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its climb over the week against the British Pound (GBP) initially reaching 0.5190 (1.9260) in the first wave before pushing higher to 0.5230 (1.9120) in early Friday. To be honest it’s performed very well as market sentiment drowned in a sea of geopolitical risk aversion. The only data release over the week has been Australian Retail Sales which came in hot at 0.7% compared to 0.4% forecast for August supporting the AUD. We favour a push back by the GBP with a retest to 0.5145 (1.9430) predicted.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5212 GBPAUD 1.9186
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5157- 0.5229 GBPAUD 1.9123- 1.9390
Resistance around 0.4760 (2.1000) held early week for the British Pound (GBP) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) diving to 0.4710 (2.1240) Thursday amid a market “risk off” tone before reversing all the way back to 0.4750 (2.1060). With no tier one data publishing in the cross moves have been dominated by geopolitical flows following Iran’s attack on Israel. NZ ANZ Business Confidence jumped in September with optimism improving over the last few months. Next week’s RBNZ meeting should see a cut of 50 points to 4.75%, while most of this could already be priced into the cross we could still get a drop in the NZD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4735 GBPNZD 2.1119
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4706- 0.4761 GBPNZD 2.1000- 2.1249
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen out of bed this week against the US Dollar (USD) posting numbers around low 0.62’s this morning. At the start of the week the cross actually rose reaching 0.6380 before dropping on geopolitical uncertainty. Attention shifts today to the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release and unemployment rate. If the report shows a weaker than predicted outcome we could see the Federal Reserve (Fed) consider cutting rates deeper in the coming months putting big pressure on the greenback. The kiwi may be relief around 0.6200 with strong support seen on the chart.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6216
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6206- 0.6378
As we predicted the Australian Dollar (AUD) has held up well against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) moving well outside recent ranges around 0.9140 (1.0940) and 0.9215 (1.0850) to clock 0.9070 (1.1025) in morning trade. Central bank divergence evident with the RBA suggesting no cuts until early 2025 while the RBNZ now forecast 2 cuts of 50 points on October 9th and again in November. Australian Retail Sales boosted the Aussie when figures for August published at 0.7% vs 0.4% expected. We predict now is the time we could see cross fall deep into the 80’s. Next week’s potential RBNZ cut to 4.75% won’t help the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9080 AUDNZD 1.1007
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9071- 0.9201 AUDNZD 1.0868- 1.1023
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended higher Monday reaching 0.6940 against the US Dollar (USD), a new 2024 high. The 4th week straight the AUD has outperformed the greenback. This week’s US non-farm payroll numbers Friday holds the key to ongoing fed policy reviews with predictions the release could be much worse than markets are expecting. This would give way too much “deeper” rate cuts with labour markets showing weakness. At the moment we have priced in 75 points of cuts at the November 8 meeting. With the RBA not expected to cut until early in 2025 we should see the cross retest the magical 0.7000 mark as early as this week.
Current Level: 0.6917
Resistance: 0.7000
Support: 0.6800
Last Weeks Range: 0.6794- 0.6936
French budget woes and softer German prelim CPI m/m have both contributed to the Euro (EUR) demise over the past few days against the Australian Dollar (AUD) sending prices in the cross to 0.6220 (1.6080) in morning trade. A retest and break above 0.6250 (1.6000) the 2024 high would signal further upside for the AUD. With the RBA holding tight on easing policy until next year we could certainly see more of the same.
Current Level: 1.6108
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6116- 1.6402
French budget woes and softer German prelim CPI m/m have both contributed to the Euro (EUR) demise over the past few days against the Australian Dollar (AUD) sending prices in the cross to 0.6220 (1.6080) in morning trade. A retest and break above 0.6250 (1.6000) the 2024 high would signal further upside for the AUD. With the RBA holding tight on easing policy until next year we could certainly see more of the same.
Current Level: 0.6208
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6096- 0.6205
Last week’s Australian inflation read came in at 2.7% y/y as markets were predicting sending the AUD higher against the British Pound (GBP) to close the week circa 0.5165 (1.9360) levels. Its still not enough for the RBA to consider cutting rates just yet, what’s interesting in the CPI number is a drop of -17% in electricity based on the govt providing rebates. So, the CPI number could end up rising back above 3.0% once the rebates have finished at the end of 2025. The AUD climbed to 0.5185 (1.9285) resistance early this morning before dropping back to 0.5170 (1.9350)
Current Level: 1.9346
Resistance: 1.9250
Support: 1.9270
Last Weeks Range: 1.9324- 1.9570