FX News

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

The Kiwi attracted sellers in the wake of the RBNZ cut Wednesday after the RBNZ cut the interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. Price extended to 0.4630 (2.1585) clearing support around 0.4660 (2.1470), the lowest level since early August levels against the British Pound (GBP). Inflation in NZ sits at 3.3% y/y for the June quarter just above the 1-3% acceptable band. Seems the RBNZ are now convinced inflation is under control with convincing signs its rapidly approaching the mid zone around 2%. Markets are pricing in another 50-point drop at the November meeting which would take the interest rate to 4.25% giving more relief to borrowers and consumers. The cross looks to retest the yearly low at 0.4580 (2.1840).

Current Level: 2.1547
Resistance: 2.1880
Support: 2.1000
Last Weeks Range: 2.1000- 2.1311

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Kiwi attracted sellers in the wake of the RBNZ cut Wednesday after the RBNZ cut the interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. Price extended to 0.4630 (2.1585) clearing support around 0.4660 (2.1470), the lowest level since early August levels against the British Pound (GBP). Inflation in NZ sits at 3.3% y/y for the June quarter just above the 1-3% acceptable band. Seems the RBNZ are now convinced inflation is under control with convincing signs its rapidly approaching the mid zone around 2%. Markets are pricing in another 50-point drop at the November meeting which would take the interest rate to 4.25% giving more relief to borrowers and consumers. The cross looks to retest the yearly low at 0.4580 (2.1840).

Current Level: 0.4641
Resistance: 0.4760
Support: 0.4570
Last Weeks Range: 0.4692- 0.4762

FX News

AUD/NZD Transfer

The RBNZ delivered a 50-point cut to their interest rate yesterday as predicted sending the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower across the board and towards 0.9020 (1.1085) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). We have been suggesting for several weeks now how the kiwi looks overvalued. Turns out we have been correct; prices could drop into the high 80’s prior to the weekly close. Also factoring in another 50-point cut by the RBNZ at their late November meeting we could see the NZD continue to sell off.

 

Current Level: 1.1066
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1030
Last Weeks Range: 1.0864 – 1.1048

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The RBNZ delivered a 50-point cut to their interest rate yesterday as predicted sending the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower across the board and towards 0.9020 (1.1085) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). We have been suggesting for several weeks now how the kiwi looks overvalued. Turns out we have been correct; prices could drop into the high 80’s prior to the weekly close. Also factoring in another 50-point cut by the RBNZ at their late November meeting we could see the NZD continue to sell off.

Current Level: 0.9029
Resistance: 0.9070
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.9051 – 0.9204

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has sunk to 0.6055 in morning trading against the US Dollar (USD) after some intense selling pressures. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates by 0.50% to 4.75% yesterday. It’s clear now that the New Zealand economy is weakening significantly, however the RBNZ suggested inflation would return to the mid 1-3% target soon. Markets expect the central bank to reduce interest rates again at their November 27 meeting. We don’t see a lot of support on the chart down to 0.5850 levels- the late July low. If the kiwi can stay above 0.6000 for the next couple of days it will be a small miracle.

Current Level: 0.6066
Support: 0.6000
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.6144- 0.6379

 

FX News

FX Update: RBNZ cuts 50 points

Market Overview

  • The RBNZ cuts Interest Rate by half a percent to 4.75%.
  • ECB’s Villeroy says the European Central Bank (ECB) will probably cut rates at their October 18th meeting as economic growth is weak siting inflation may undershoot their 2.0% target.
  • Conflicts in the Middle East remain, but with hopes of a Hezbollah and Israel ceasefire on the cards the situation could ease. Until then safe haven flows in Gold and the greenback continue to dominate market moves.
  • Uncertainty over potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes have halted USD demand this week in the USDJPY cross but with speculation that the Japanese authorities may again intervene in the FX markets to support local Japanese domestic growth could shift the JPY higher not only against the USD but other crosses such as the NZD and AUD.
  • Australian Consumer Confidence rose from -0.5% to 6.2% in October,.
  • RBA backed away from their recent “hold for longer” tone suggesting they were more aware they may need to cut rates earlier than recently suggested.
  • The US Dollar (USD) has been the best performing currency this month while the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the worst performing.
FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Sunday October 6th
5:00am AUD Daylight Saving Time Shift

Monday October 7th
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
All Day CNY Bank Holiday

Tuesday October 8th
1:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Wednesday October 9th
2:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate | Forecast 4.75% | Previous 5.25%
2:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement

Thursday October 10th
3:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories | Previous 3.9M
7:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
10th-15th CNY New Loans | Forecast 1090B | Previous 900B Read more

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been a top performer across the main board of currencies this week based on the only central back looking to delay rates until early next year, this has created divergence in currency movements. However, we have still seen a slide to 0.6830 over the week but the drops have been well supported compared to other currencies which have freefallen. Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles into Israel earlier in the week, Israel’s Netanyahu vowing to fight back with force. Risks of full-blown war in the region are real with market appetite to take on “risk” products poor. Attention now is with US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) tomorrow morning, anything softer than forecast could highlight the need by the Fed to cut rates deeper. Downside risks in the AUD remain.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6843

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6828- 0.6941

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its climb over the week against the British Pound (GBP) initially reaching 0.5190 (1.9260) in the first wave before pushing higher to 0.5230 (1.9120) in early Friday. To be honest it’s performed very well as market sentiment drowned in a sea of geopolitical risk aversion. The only data release over the week has been Australian Retail Sales which came in hot at 0.7% compared to 0.4% forecast for August supporting the AUD. We favour a push back by the GBP with a retest to 0.5145 (1.9430) predicted.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5212 GBPAUD 1.9186

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5157- 0.5229 GBPAUD 1.9123- 1.9390

 

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

Resistance around 0.4760 (2.1000) held early week for the British Pound (GBP) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) diving to 0.4710 (2.1240) Thursday amid a market “risk off” tone before reversing all the way back to 0.4750 (2.1060). With no tier one data publishing in the cross moves have been dominated by geopolitical flows following Iran’s attack on Israel. NZ ANZ Business Confidence jumped in September with optimism improving over the last few months. Next week’s RBNZ meeting should see a cut of 50 points to 4.75%, while most of this could already be priced into the cross we could still get a drop in the NZD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4735 GBPNZD 2.1119

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4706- 0.4761 GBPNZD 2.1000- 2.1249