GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made gains mid last week off 0.4635 (2.1580) against the British Pound (GBP) closing at 0.4680 (2.1380). Early week moves have seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.4660 (2.1470) as we head into CPI prints for both currencies. UK inflation should dip to 1.9% from 2.2% y/y creeping just inside the Bank of England’s target. At the moment the BoE are expected to cut rates on the 7th of Nov by a further 0.25% to 4.75% however the central bank remains cautious over cutting too quick. The bear trend in the cross remains.

Current Level: 2.1473
Resistance: 2.1600
Support: 2.1170
Last Weeks Range: 2.1245- 2.1590

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made gains mid last week off 0.4635 (2.1580) against the British Pound (GBP) closing at 0.4680 (2.1380). Early week moves have seen the kiwi give back gains to 0.4660 (2.1470) as we head into CPI prints for both currencies. UK inflation should dip to 1.9% from 2.2% y/y creeping just inside the Bank of England’s target. At the moment the BoE are expected to cut rates on the 7th of Nov by a further 0.25% to 4.75% however the central bank remains cautious over cutting too quick. The bear trend in the cross remains.

Current Level: 0.4657
Resistance: 0.4725
Support: 0.4630
Last Weeks Range: 0.4631- 0.4707

AUD/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been teetering just above the 0.9000 (1.1110) level for several days now after coming from the 0.9210 (1.0860) zone a fortnight back. We still believe price will drop into the 80’s with the AUD generally in better shape. Aussie Jobs data should reflect 4.2% unemployment (no change) from September when it prints Thursday with more jobs created. Now that markets have got past the Chinese stimulus debacle we may see more buying into AUD.

Current Level: 1.1045
Resistance: 1.1150
Support: 1.1020
Last Weeks Range: 1.0981 – 1.1090

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been teetering just above the 0.9000 (1.1110) level for several days now after coming from the 0.9210 (1.0860) zone a fortnight back. We still believe price will drop into the 80’s with the AUD generally in better shape. Aussie Jobs data should reflect 4.2% unemployment (no change) from September when it prints Thursday with more jobs created. Now that markets have got past the Chinese stimulus debacle we may see more buying into AUD.

Current Level: 0.9047
Resistance: 0.9075
Support: 0.8970
Last Weeks Range: 0.9017 – 0.9106

 

NZD/USD Transfer

It has been a quiet start to the trading week with the US Holiday Monday making for thin market conditions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) closed the week around the 0.6100 mark and has meandered its way into Tuesday around the same level. The kiwi does however look a little better bid post the big dollar recent rally. US Producer Prices turned in a flat monthly result but is up 1.8% y/y and follows other strong US data releases. The Fed is in the final stages of getting inflation back to 2.0% target, but the central bank seem uncertain of how restrictive monetary policy needs to be with the jobs market remaining strong. Focus diverts to NZ inflation tomorrow with expectations of further falls 3.3% to 2.3% q/q which could put extra pressure on the NZD. Upside moves look limited past 0.6140 levels.

Current Level: 0.6086
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week’s range: 0.6051- 0.6193

 

FX Update: NZD consolidates last week’s lows

Market Overview

  • The Dow Jones Index has jumped to another record high Monday.
  • Saudi Arabia look to flood the market with cheap oil.
  • Irael’s Netanyahu announced to the US they will strike Iranian military targets not Nuclear or oil.
  • Fed members spoke Monday with the consensus being the labour market remains strong as the Fed make inroads into inflation.
  • We see USD/JPY bias to the downside with the Ishiba govt snap election looming 27th October.
  • The US Dollar (USD) has been the best performing currency in the past week with the  Canadian Dollar (CAD) the worst performing.

Calendar of Economic Releases

Sunday October 13th
2:30pm CNY CPI y/y | Forecast 0.60% | Previous 0.60%
2:30pm CNY PPI y/y | Forecast -2.50% | Previous -1.80%

Monday October 14th
9:15am NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
14th-15th CNY New Loans | Forecast 1090B | Previous 900B

Tuesday October 15th
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
8:00am USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks
7:00pm GBP Claimant Count Change | Forecast 20.2K | Previous 23.7K
7:00pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y | Forecast 3.80% | Previous 4.00%
10:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment | Forecast 10.2 | Previous 3.6 Read more

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended declines into Thursday to 0.6712 against the US Dollar (USD). The stronger greenback has been outperforming of late due to a “risk off” tone. Chinese stocks have tumbled over scepticism over Beijing’s stimulus measures, the biggest drop in 4 years falling over 7%. This has had an impact on the Aussie as it undermines the currency. RBA’s deputy governor Hauser said yesterday at the central bank minutes that the bank will act as soon as inflation stops being high and sticky. Currently the RBA’s inflation sits at 3.8% much higher than their 2-3% target range. We expect further momentum in the cross to the downside.

Current Level: 0.6718
Resistance: 0.6800
Support: 0.6640
Last Weeks Range: 0.6784- 0.6947

 

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6250 (1.60) long term resistance mid last week to give back gains to 0.6120 (1.6350) yesterday. Punching below key moving averages around 0.6160 (1.6230) we could see more downside develop. Also weighing on the AUD is Chinese stimulus concerns, rising oil prices and the conflict in Israel. The RBA minutes signalled a removal of their dovish tone by not saying they weren’t reducing the cash rate in the near term.

Current Level: 1.6291
Resistance: 1.6400
Support: 1.6000
Last Weeks Range: 1.6000- 1.6185

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6250 (1.60) long term resistance mid last week to give back gains to 0.6120 (1.6350) yesterday. Punching below key moving averages around 0.6160 (1.6230) we could see more downside develop. Also weighing on the AUD is Chinese stimulus concerns, rising oil prices and the conflict in Israel. The RBA minutes signalled a removal of their dovish tone by not saying they weren’t reducing the cash rate in the near term.

Current Level: 0.6138
Resistance: 0.6250
Support: 0.6100
Last Weeks Range: 0.6178- 0.6250