The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed the week around 0.6255 against the US Dollar (USD) declining more than 1% on the week. Prices into Tuesday are bouncing around open levels as we await key data this week. Australian CPI was predicted to cool fast over the year with Wednesday’s release expected to confirm this with a much anticipated 5.5% print from 7.0% y/y for June. If we see this number we can expect the RBA will be relieved and take onboard a more relaxed policy approach, however one can never rule out further hikes. The Federal Reserve policy and cash rate release is Thursday Morning with a hike most likely of 25 points expected taking the cash rate to 5.50%. Powell’s objective is to soften the US economy enough to not send it into a recession. The question remains- how much inflation can he tolerate to not hike Thursday and over the remainder of 2023. We predict an improvement in price with a possible retest of the 0.6800 zone.
Current Level: 0.6731
Last Weeks Range: 0.6721-0.6847