Expected moves for the Australian Dollar (AUD) through 0.7500 stalled midweek against the US Dollar (USD) with the pair reaching 0.7460 before swan diving to 0.7370 early Friday. Equity prices and commodities were hit hard including iron ore back at 146.00 per tonne. China has said they would cut steel output in 2022 adding demand concerns for the resource led Australian economy. To make things worse China Steel regions are back in covid lockdown restrictions. Fed speak confirmed they could hike interest rates over the next 3 months by 50 points apiece to around 3.0% in early 2023. It’s been over 50 years since the Fed have decreased the cash rate in less than 8 months from any hike, analysts are predicting slower growth prospects in 2023-2024 as inflation returns to normal thus this could create the perfect storm and recession if they don’t get the balance of the economy right. Next week’s Aussie CPI could print higher than 4.0% making this a 14 year high. We think the AUD may just underperform over the following few days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7366
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7386- 0.7456