Markets have been choppy this week buffeted by the ongoing Covid pandemic and slow vaccination rates in Europe with the realisation that a return to “normal” is further off than first anticipated. The new Biden administration continues to settle in with little sign of any bipartisan Democratic/Republican cooperation apparent- looks like “normal” transmission has resumed!
Read moreKey Points:
• Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 100.2 million with over 2,147,000 official deaths.
• The first NZ community spread coronavirus case in over 2 months has been picked up in a quarantine facility- the highly infectious South African strain, the women twice had negative results before being released from quarantine on the 13th January.
• US Equity markets continue to register record levels.
• US Senate formally voted in the ne US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen- the first woman to ever hold the job.
• Moderna says expect the first series of vaccines to last around a year before a 3rd booster shot is required.
• Biden says he will use US taxpayers’ funds to rebuild America
• Ex-president Trump’s impeachment trial will begin on the 8th February.
• The AstraZeneca rollout of the coronavirus vaccine in Europe has been a disaster according to analysts as they won’t be able to provide the number of doses originally expected with a drop of around 60% over the first 3 months of 2021 stemming from production issues.
Monday 25/01
9.45pm, EUR, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Tuesday 26/01
5.15am, EUR, ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Wednesday 27/01
4am, USD, CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast 88.9
Previous 88.6
1.30pm, AUD, CPI q/q
Forecast 0.7%
Previous 1.6%
1.30pm, AUD, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
Forecast 0.4%
Previous 0.4%
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 97.4 million with over 2,087,000 official deaths.
Currency markets have been relatively subdued over the past week with the broad theme of USD weakness still very much in play. US equity markets remain well supported with the S&P 500 trading to an all-time high in recent days. Markets are keen to see details about Biden’s fiscal spending package, but it’s fair to say most expect it to undermine the USD further over the coming months. Biden’s advisers have also been signalling to Wall Street donors that tax increases will likely come later in the year, but these may depend on the economic recovery and Covid’s impact on the economy. To that end we saw some mixed data from the US overnight. On the positive side the Philly Fed Manufacturing index showed solid gains jumping to 26.5 from 11.1 prior. But countering this was the harsh reality of the employment situation with weekly unemployment claims remaining above 900k.
Read moreWorldwide coronavirus cases surpass 95.7 million with over 2,044,000 official deaths.
Key Points:
• Brexit has been agreed on the 30th December between UK and EU lawmakers but issues are still a plenty with many problems in fisheries
• US Holiday saw quiet markets Monday with Martin Luther King Day
• Iron Ore markets continue to break records after Chinese steel productions hit fresh highs
• Chinese 4th quarter GDP slides short of estimates but overall the economy expanded by 2.0% in 2020 while the rest of the world suffered through the coronavirus pandemic
Monday 18/01
3pm, CNY, GDP q/y
Forecast 6.20%
Previous 4.90%
Tuesday 19/01
All Day, USD, Bank Holiday
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 77.68 million with over 1708,000 official deaths.
Key Points:
• 900B US bailout package unveiled by US lawmakers to aid jobless Americans.
• Asian stocks dipped today after U.S. equities joined a global decline as a new variant of the coronavirus in the U.K. and a wave of lockdowns and travel restrictions hurt sentiment.
• The UK has had its borders with most European countries closed, with no traffic passenger or freight, going across the channel by tunnel or ferry.
• Australia preliminary November Retail sales data has been released showing a much better than forecast +7%m/m against an expected +2%
• The UK looks at widening Tier 4 restrictions across the country as cases of the mutant Covid multiply at rates not seen since April.
• The US has brought in further additional visa restrictions on Chinese officials
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 75.17 million with over 1,666,000 official deaths.
Key Points:
Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 73.1 million with over 1,626,000 official deaths.
Key Points:
• Europe has announced further coronavirus restrictions in the wake of record-breaking new cases and deaths recently.
• Germany has also been struggling to contain a fresh wave of coronavirus cases advising workplaces to close down as they start a new lockdown phase tomorrow.
• The UK are bracing for tier 3 lockdown restrictions as mounting pressures in parliament mount to prevent christmas closures and further restrictions.
• Progress in the Brexit negotiations remains touch and go with the deadline again being extended by another week as 31 December D day looms.
• US lawmakers have unveiled a 748B stimulus package compromising the original 908B originally. This separates out the sticky points of the deal so that the new amount could be agreed by Congress.
• New Zealand “consumer confidence” jumped Monday to 106 vs 95.4 prior- back at the 2019 average indicator.
• Crude Oil forecasts for first quarter 2021 have been downgraded by OPEC as hard lockdowns take effect.
Wednesday 16/12