FX News

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) inches closer to the 0.5750 (1.7400) level we saw 3 weeks ago trading into Tuesday at 0.5770 (1.7330). These levels are back at covid times of early 2020 with much of the recent moves- “tariff” related uncertainty and speculation. Today’s RBA rate announcement should see no shift off 4.10% as they continue their conservative approach in light of US president driven global trade impacts. Data in the form of Eurozone CPI is expected to show a small dip with inflation slowing in the area. Further downside momentum for the Aussie is expected.

Current Level: 1.7340
Resistance: 1.7420
Support: 1.7050
Last Weeks Range: 1.7047- 1.7256

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) inches closer to the 0.5750 (1.7400) level we saw 3 weeks ago trading into Tuesday at 0.5770 (1.7330). These levels are back at covid times of early 2020 with much of the recent moves- “tariff” related uncertainty and speculation. Today’s RBA rate announcement should see no shift off 4.10% as they continue their conservative approach in light of US president driven global trade impacts. Data in the form of Eurozone CPI is expected to show a small dip with inflation slowing in the area. Further downside momentum for the Aussie is expected.

Current Level: 0.5767
Resistance: 0.5865
Support: 0.5740
Last Weeks Range: 0.5795- 0.5866

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has posted a fresh 2025 low earlier this morning reaching 0.4815 (2.0770) before settling around 0.4830 (2.0700). On a weekly basis the weekly close at 0.4865 (2.0560) is the lowest weekly close since December 2015. Todays RBA cash rate and statement will hold centre stage with the Central bank widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.10% and stick with a cautious approach. With resistance now seen at 0.4855 (2.0600) it’s hard to see swings through this zone in the medium term.

Current Level: 2.0712
Resistance: 2.0850
Support: 2.0330
Last Weeks Range: 2.0388 – 2.0609

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended last week’s losses to move lower off 0.5290 (1.8900)  to 0.5245 (1.9070) this morning against the Euro (EUR). Past 0.5220 (1.9165) and we post a new 2025 low and a levels not seen since covid days back around March 2020. Despite discouraging data Friday with Spanish CPI y/y the EUR has squeezed higher. Lagarde speaks tomorrow.

Current Level: 1.9091
Resistance: 1.9300
Support: 1.8640
Last Weeks Range: 1.8727 – 1.8932

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended last week’s losses to move lower off 0.5290 (1.8900)  to 0.5245 (1.9070) this morning against the Euro (EUR). Past 0.5220 (1.9165) and we post a new 2025 low and a levels not seen since covid days back around March 2020. Despite discouraging data Friday with Spanish CPI y/y the EUR has squeezed higher. Lagarde speaks tomorrow.

Current Level: 0.5238
Support: 0.5180
Resistance: 0.5365
Last week’s range: 0.5282- 0.5339

The latest read in UK Retail Sales has improved the British Pound (GBP) over the past few days coming in at 1.0% for February instead of the predicted -0.3% forecast. The GBP along with recent “risk off” sentiment has pushed the cross through 0.4400 (2.2740) support Monday to post 0.4380 (2.2840) this morning a new 2025 low. Apart for tier 2 UK Manufacturing data releasing Friday the NZD/GBP will move based on big picture themes.

Current Level: 2.2799
Resistance: 2.2900
Support: 2.2360
Last Weeks Range: 2.2397- 2.2672

The latest read in UK Retail Sales has improved the British Pound (GBP) over the past few days coming in at 1.0% for February instead of the predicted -0.3% forecast. The GBP along with recent “risk off” sentiment has pushed the cross through 0.4400 (2.2740) support Monday to post 0.4380 (2.2840) this morning a new 2025 low. Apart for tier 2 UK Manufacturing data releasing Friday the NZD/GBP will move based on big picture themes.

Current Level: 0.4386
Resistance: 0.4470
Support: 0.4365
Last Weeks Range: 0.4410- 0.4464

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its recovery from 1.0900 (0.9175) Monday reaching 1.1020 (0.9075) this morning against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). This week’s main economic data is today’s RBA Cash Rate which is expected to remain on hold at 4.10% in a “hawkish” review. The board will stick with their cautious stance while impacts around tariffs and global trade weigh on optimism. With tomorrow looming with Trump’s reciprocal tariff push we will get an idea of how significant these changes could be for US trading partners. If Australia avoid direct tariffs, China may not which could affect Australia exports into China and have a detrimental impact on the NZD/AUD in a way which could see the AUD devalue.

Current Level: 1.1001
Resistance: 1.1080
Support: 1.0980
Last Weeks Range: 1.0919 – 1.1010