Higher lows followed by higher highs over the past 3 weeks in the New Zealand (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross saw the kiwi reverse early in the week from 0.6180 to 0.6260 this morning, targeting last week’s high at 0.6295. Risk flows improved as the greenback was sold even after US consumer confidence improved in March. US Final GDP was downgraded overnight at 2.6% from 2.7% for the last quarter 2022 suggesting the US economy remains buoyant. However, the long-range picture suggests the economy is losing momentum if we look back at 2021 figures with growth around 5.9%. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement should offer the normal currency moves, with the central bank looking at hiking further into low 5.0’s and possibly signalling further hikes on the horizon in order to bring down inflation to the target 2% range. We could see the kiwi spike and spike hard and test the early 2023 level at 0.6400 if the mood is dovish.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6261
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6179- 0.6264