NZD to JPY

Strengthening of US Equity markets have boosted risk markets, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) keeping bid support against the Japanese Yen “(JPY) over most of the week as the pair trades around the 81.70-mark Friday. Japanese Retail Sales beat estimates of -2.2% coming in at 0.6% with shoppers disregarding virus fears. The Bank of Japan retained its -0.1% interest rate with the central bank unlikely to change its loose monetary policy for some time. Inflation expectations have picked up of late, but the bank sees this as transitory lowering their growth forecast as supply constraints continue to weigh on exports and production. Once daily covid numbers start to decrease in Auckland we should see further upside in the kiwi heading towards the 24 November RBNZ meeting.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 81.52
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 81.00- 82.10

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has broken through long term support at 80.20, the high from May this year against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to reach a staggering level of 82.50, the September 2017 level. The fresh 4 year high was off the back of heavy JPY selling amid risk appetite as equities post near record highs. Overnight trading risk soured as China headlines with property company Evergrande saw the NZD give back gains to 81.30. Once profit taking on long NZD positions is exhausted we should see further rises in the cross through to next week’s Bank of Japan report Thursday.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 81.57
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 80.45- 82.50

China’s third quarter growth disappointed, coming in at 4.9% as industrial production rose slightly less than predicted in the September quarter. Missing expectations of 5.2% due to the recent property downturn, the soft data sent a wave of concern through markets Monday The recent surge in the price of Crude Oil also has punters concerned with demand issues as it soared to 82.00 Monday. The Bank of Japan was on the wires saying they may downgrade their growth forecast for the upcoming fiscal year which kept the Japanese Yen (JPY) reasonably offered. The cross has held onto 80.00 levels from late last week reaching 81.20 in Monday trading before dropping back to 80.90 early Tuesday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 81.09
Resistance: 82.70
Support: 76.50
Last Weeks Range: 77.55-80.82

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be sold off into today’s Session against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price reaching 79.90 the late May high. As we predicted the NZD has outperformed its rivals in line with a little risk mood developing, US equity indices rose over 1.5% in overnight trading assisting the kiwi climb. Dovish comments from Bank of Japan’s Noguchi sent the JPY lower when he said “a weak Yen is beneficial for the economy as it boosts competitiveness.” Key standouts on next week’s calendar include NZ CPI q/q with expectations of a rise of 1.3% for the third quarter. A pass through 80.20 marking the February 2018 level is a possibility in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 80.01
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.58- 80.07

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has struggled recently, trading lower for the third straight day against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Coming from last week’s low around 76.70 the cross reached 78.90 this morning. Although equity prices are lower overnight, broader sentiment looks ok but the JPY is weighed down by the continued Crude Oil rally with Japan an oil importer. Yield differentials are also widening in the pair as the RBNZ raised rates last week. We have no tier one data on the calendar this week. We think the NZD will continue to edge higher over the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.64
Resistance: 79.30
Support: 77.70
Last Weeks Range: 76.64-77.89

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 77.85 Wednesday post the RBNZ announcement but was surprisingly sold off soon after down to 76.65 levels. The elimination strategy by the New Zealand Government of coronavirus is over, deemed no longer feasible with the virus unlikely to be wiped out. Going hard and early worked to a point given it shouldn’t have taken much to stop new cases spreading as the initial infectious count was low. New plan- everyone get vaccinated. The fundamental factors of potentially a failed plan according to analysts set the NZD off on the back foot Tuesday denting confidence and putting the currency under fresh pressures. Price in the cross has however recovered back to 77.30 in early Friday trading as US equity indices rose over 1.0% overnight.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.45
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.64- 77.89

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its Friday form into Monday trading against the Japanese Yen (JPY) climbing through 77.00 on its way to post 77.60 before easing back to 77.30 early Tuesday. Economic data out of Japan was decent to close out the week with Tanken Manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence promoting JPY bids for a while. The Tanken Index showed manufacturers had a modest third quarter beating expectations with the sector continuing to grow in 2021. On the calendar this week is tomorrow’s RBNZ with markets widely predicting a hike of 25 points to 0.50%. With price inching above the 100 day moving average we could see the kiwi well supported this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.16
Resistance: 78.40
Support: 76.40
Last Weeks Range: 76.43-78.14

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen away to 76.70 into Friday trading against the Japanese Yen (JPY), the kiwi earning the tag of the worst performing currency this week as the economy braves mounting pressures from the RBNZ and coronavirus. Fumio Kishida has been chosen by his party (Liberal Democratic Party to become Japan’s 100th prime minister, beating out rival Taro Kono seen as a frontrunner for the job. He will succeed Yoshihide Suga who has stepped down after only being in the role for 1 year. Suga decided to step aside after plummeting popularity mostly caused by the way he has handled the covid pandemic. Kishida has strong views over China and may aid in the economic separation of China from western economies. As the Federal Reserve is forced to take on an accommodative stance with policy we could see further strength in the greenback leading to a downturn in equity markets, this in turn would be bad for the NZD. Next week’s RBNZ rate statement will be one to watch.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 76.88
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.56- 78.14

With the drama in China with Evergrande and the recent Fed decision in the rear view now the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shrugged off late last week’s declines to recover back to 77.90 this morning. Setbacks in the cross could be limited to 77.50 this week, the 100 day moving average, as risk markets could bring support from a global rebound in sentiment. Covid infections have improved in most parts of Japan of late with the country’s state of emergency expected to be lifted in most parts by the end of the month. NZ Building Consents print Thursday along with Japanese Retail Sales.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.81
Resistance: 78.65
Support: 76.40
Last Weeks Range: 76.34-78.14

It was a game of two halves in the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week with the cross dipping to 76.40 Wednesday and reversing to 78.00 into Friday trading. Early week sentiment was dented by word that Chinese company Evergrande would be defaulting on its massive interest obligations to lenders. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held steady their ultra stimulatory policy Wednesday maintaining its short term interest rate at -0.10% re-confirming it would buy Japanese Govt Bonds without any limit. This diverging path of policy is separating the BoJ with other central banks who are considering tightening policy. The dovish tone sent the kiwi roaring back. Nothing of note on the economic schedule next week should keep movement guided by risk sentiment.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.11
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.33- 78.14

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was unable to hold 77.90 support last week after climbing through to 78.60- the nine week high against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Poor risk-off tone has carried over into Monday with US equity markets falling over 2.5% overnight as stomach issues out of China. Construction developer giant Evergrande has defaulted on interest payments to lending bank sending the share price in the company plunging 10%. With the FOMC this week, market worries over the outlook of policy and the ability of the Fed to ignore rising inflationary pressures should keep market emphasis gloomy.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.65
Resistance: 77.90
Support: 76.20
Last Weeks Range: 76.62-78.60

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) flatlined last week consolidating around the 78.30 area. The kiwi held onto gains from the run up from 74.60 mid-August mostly off the back of yen selling pressures. This week’s economic docket sees NZ GDP for the second quarter with predictions of a record read. Lockdown restrictions in Auckland may dampen the kiwi mood over the week with bias seen towards the 77.70 area.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.22
Resistance: 77.70
Support: 79.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.79-78.63

Risk currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) are all softer this week as equity market declines are felt across markets. The cross dipping to 78.00 levels and looking at easing further into the weekly close. Japan’s Central Bank’s chief Kuroda was on the wires saying the Bank of Japan’s easing would continue until well after covid until the goal of 2.0% inflation was reached. The country is facing downward pressures as the state of emergency was extended in 19 regions through to the end of September. Meanwhile, Japanese second Q GDP grew quicker than initially thought coming in at 0.5% vs expectations of 0.3% this however was overshadowed by a resurgent covid which continues to cloud the outlook. We expect the kiwi to surge next week as Auckland’s lockdown restrictions are eased.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.03
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.89- 78.56

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains into the weekly close against the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaching 78.65 a fresh 9 week high in the pair. Some of the recent gains in the kiwi have been attributed to broad based US Dollar weakness and a Bank of Japan possibly introducing even more easing to monetary policy. Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced he would not seek re-election and has stepped down some say in response to his handling of poor covid responses. Another thin economic docket this week with only Japanese Current Account printing of note. Risk factors will play a part this week, we expect the kiwi to pair gains to 78.00 levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.39
Resistance: 79.30
Support: 77.60
Last Weeks Range: 77.21-78.64

Extending last week’s moves from the 76.40 area the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) buoyed on by broad-based US Dollar weakness has reached 78.20 into Friday trading against the Japanese Yen (JPY). This has resulted in a 4 cent rally from recent lows. As new covid cases in NZ start to shrink this puts pressure on the RBNZ to start thinking about raising rates at their October meeting. Retesting the 9 week high at 78.75 may be on the cards over the coming days largely depending on how (NFP) prints tomorrow morning. Looking into next week on the calendar we have key NZ quarterly GDP.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.16
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.71- 78.31

As risk markets enjoyed a week of positivity this took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 77 the figure against the Japanese Yen (JPY) returning from 74.60 the previous week’s moves. Following the full approval of the Pfizer vaccine by the FDA and Fed comments by Powell at the Jackson Hole the kiwi has been very well supported. Powell confirmed his vision for tapering wouldn’t happen quite as soon as we were predicting with interest rates expected to remain unchanged for some time. A tough sell for Powell as inflation run hot. Investors bought up more equities with indices consolidating around record highs. End of month flows could be volatile in the pair, at some stage we should see a pullback of sorts in the NZD as “longs” are unwound.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.27
Resistance: 80.00
Support: 74.80
Last Weeks Range: 75.30-77.07

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) moved off the late January low around 74.80 early in the week as risk conditions improved as the fear of global growth outcomes continued to diminish. US equities climbed to fresh highs with the kiwi back at 76.80 into Thursday trading. Comments by Dr Fauci the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases during the week assisted risk currencies when he said the earliest things could be back to normal is the Spring of 2022, this was following the full approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Equity markets turned negative Friday taking price back to 76.40, perhaps markets were a tad overbought leading into the Jackson Hole event.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 76.48
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 74.82- 76.82

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dropped to a late January 2021 low Friday against the Japanese Yen (JPY), closing around the 75.00 level. Monday the kiwi paired losses amid “risk on” conditions travelling back to 75.70 into Tuesday. Equities all posted gains and the greenback was smashed. Manufacturing figures in August slowed in Japan highlighting the heavy toll the delta variant is having on the economy. The pace of growth is the slowest in seven months as the Japanese government extended the country’s fourth state of emergency. As the spread into the community rises in NZ this could weigh on the kiwi later in the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 75.52
Resistance: 76.15
Support: 74.70
Last Weeks Range: 74.59-76.17

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross has seen its biggest weekly shift in over 15 months as markets panicked, selling the kiwi from 77.30 levels down to 74.60. A heavy risk off theme developed with geopolitical influences in Afghanistan affecting equity prices and spooking investors to sell the kiwi. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also retained its 0.25% cash rate Wednesday instead of hiking it to 0.50% surprising markets and weakening the NZD. With coronavirus reported to be out in the community Tuesday NZ went into a hard 3-7 day lockdown clearly holding back RBNZ earlier tightening forecasts. We should now see the first hike in a series start at the October policy meeting. The RBNZ will also start to reduce its covid stimulus package over the coming months. Looking into next week on the calendar we shave NZ Retail Sales q/q and Japanese CPI y/y. We expect the kiwi to recover losses as NZD/JPY short positions square up.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 74.87
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 74.55- 77.18

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended losses into the weekly close against the Japanese Yen (JPY) dropping to 77.20. Monday prices were stretched lower with the NZD underperforming to 76.50. The Japanese economy avoided a double dip recession rebounding in the second quarter with prelim GDP publishing at 0.3% q/q, y/y this is 1.3% as spending helped boost activity. With Japan extending the state of emergency to Sep 12 as new cases balloon out, worrying signs with the Paralympics approaching, the country has their work cut out to contain it. Tomorrow’s RBNZ rate announcement and policy statement is our focus with a hike of 0.25% predicted. If the pair can shake off risk pressures, we should see the NZD boosted.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.59
Resistance: 77.70
Support: 75.90
Last Weeks Range: 76.54-77.93

Downside moves for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) were capped as we predicted against the Japanese Yen (JPY) based on recent overall positivity in the kiwi with price reaching 77.90 early Thursday. Risk mood and an outperforming US Dollar took the cross lower to 77.25 into Friday. NZ CPI expectations were printed healthy with the latest survey highlighting respondents expect inflation to be at 2.27% in two years’ time, currently it’s 3.3% y/y after spiking in the second quarter. This result is compelling with the RBNZ meeting next week giving food for thought on perhaps a 50-point hike. We don’t expect the kiwi to lose further ground into the close with it parked at a Fibonacci low, higher lows followed by higher high’s has been the theme of late.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.36
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.88- 77.92

Last week’s New Zealand employment data read took the currency to 77.70 late in the week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the unemployment rate came in at 4.0% after 4.4% was expected. This is nearly full employment and takes the economy back to pre-covid economic times. Risk waned into the weekly close with the kiwi sent back to 77.20 after a bumper US Non-Farm Payroll release. The kiwi trades into Tuesday sessions around the 77.10 area, we expect downside moves in the cross limited, based on next week’s RBNZ expected hike.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.06
Resistance: 78.00
Support: 76.20
Last Weeks Range: 76.05-77.70

The bear trend continued in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) last week and into Monday with price falling to 76.10 into Tuesday. Japanese Manufacturing improved the Yen Monday off the back of better than expected data with factory output picking up in July as Japanese manufacturing is behind the continued recovery. Also of note, Japanese Consumer Confidence improved in July, a leading indicator of consumer spending. Looking ahead we have NZ employment data publishing tomorrow with predictions of a dip to June’s Unemployment Rate at 4.7%. We predict a pick up in the kiwi to 77.00 levels over the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.32
Resistance: 77.20
Support: 75.60
Last Weeks Range: 76.05-77.13

Markets have continued to sell the US Dollar post yesterday’s Fed announcements which has led to investors supporting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Coming off 76.00 levels price retraced earlier losses in the pair to 76.90 into Friday trading. ANZ Business Confidence fell short of expectations easing 3 points as firms confirmed rising costs and inflation predictions. The biggest increase is seen in the services sector where a net 84% expect higher costs. Looking ahead, next week we have key NZ Unemployment releasing. Risk mood will continue to drive price into the release.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 76.62
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.09- 77.29

Markets kicked off the week in a risk off mood with sentiment for risk products poor. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair came off the open around 77.00 levels and fell to 76.55 before reversing back to 77.30 into Tuesday sessions as the normal risk assets turned up taking the kiwi higher. Japanese inflation remains fairly low at 0.2% after a 0.1% gain in May, well below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2.0. There doesn’t seem to be any building pressures in the economy like other central banks are experiencing. However domestic activity looks subdued. With the central bank revising their growth forecast down for the current year we don’t expect any such resurgence any time soon. It’s a quiet week on the calendar with only Japanese Unemployment to publish later in the week. A push back through 78.00 would suggest a trend reversal and a possible trip to 80.00.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.12
Resistance: 78.40
Support: 75.60
Last Weeks Range: 75.28-77.30

Things have not looked good post a hawkish RBNZ and bumper CPI release. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) should be trading a hell of a lot higher than where it is. With all NZ banks now expecting the central bank to hike from August and again later in the year interest in the kiwi should be strong but it hasn’t been. The cross traded into Tuesday around 75.80 way down on the weekly open price of 77.00 as market sentiment has been poor. In fact it’s been a risk off blood bath, with equities falling more than 2% overnight. Fair value we think is around the 79.00 area. Data is thin this week so movement will be dominated by big picture headlines.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 75.77
Resistance: 78.80
Support: 75.60
Last Weeks Range: 75.65-77.65

Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) fell sharply overnight as risk sentiment turned sour and equity markets gave back early week profits. After being up at 77.60 through Wednesday, it sank to 76.50 into Friday trading. Not even a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank governor Orr could give the kiwi momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged as predicted at 0.25% Wednesday but brought forward their stance on hikes- pricing in an increase possibly in the August meeting or November meeting. The RBNZ said they would end bond buying purchases by July 23rd. Incoming inflation and unemployment data releases will dictate the decision one way or another providing the necessary evidence the RBNZ needs. We feel losses in the kiwi have been overdone with rebound predicted back to 77.00 by week’s end.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 76.97
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.43- 77.64

It’s been a strange week of movement for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) with prices extending lower over the week as equity markets soured. However, a turn of sentiment overnight did bring back lofty levels in indices, the kiwi tanking another leg to 76.00 confirming a new 16 week low. Odd is the word I would use to describe what we have seen on the charts of late with the NZ economy performing very well. It’s all been about perception of risk. Next week’s RBNZ will be key to a NZD recovery with signs we could see a hawkish change with the RBNZ perhaps confirming interest rate will be hiked from November this year as all NZ banks now predict.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 76.24
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 75.94- 78.74

It was a slow start to the week with US Holiday 4th of July celebrations in play and US markets closed. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair trades around the 78.00 level into Tuesday just off the weekly open and looks to be edging higher extending Friday’s gains. The kiwi received a boost Friday after US Non-Farm Payroll weakened the Big Dollar as markets confirmed the data wasn’t good enough for the US Fed to start tapering their massive QE program just yet. It’s a thin economic docket this week with just Japanese Current Account publishing. We expect the cross to retest the 3-week high at 78.80 over the next few days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.17
Resistance: 80.00
Support: 76.30
Last Weeks Range: 77.07-78.35

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retreated all the way down to 77.05 levels midweek against the Japanese Yen (JPY) before risk sentiment improved pushing the kiwi back to 78.00 earlier today. Japanese Tanken Manufacturing Index posted decent increases over the first quarter read but fell short of expectations at 14 after 16 was expected for the second quarter. Still, Japanese manufacturers remain gloomy over future prospects. Also of note was Japanese Unemployment printing at 3.0% after 2.9% was expected which marks the highest level in 5 months amid the govt coronavirus pandemic state of emergency. Yesterday Japan extended covid emergency measures in Tokyo and has raised the question of whether the Olympic Games should be held without spectators. Buyers of JPY- it’s looking good at current levels around 77.50
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.68
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.04- 78.40

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted off Friday levels around 78.30 to post 77.80 early in early Tuesday as markets were mixed to start the week. The US Dollar is again making moves topside this week, perhaps on prospects of further Fed taper talk scheduled later in the week, inflation has been picking up and this could force the Fed to act. Word the Bank of Japan wants to keep the Yen low heading into the Olympic Games could factor into play. This week’s calendar looks thin with Japanese unemployment and Tanken Manufacturing later in the week the highlights. Risk in the markets should dictate direction this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.70
Resistance: 80.00
Support: 76.20
Last Weeks Range: 76.86-78.47

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has recovered all of last week’s declines against the Japanese Yen (JPY) from the low of 76.20 back to 78.30 in this morning’s trading. Risk sentiment improved and markets realised the selloff in NZD was unwarranted, with the Fed getting ahead of themselves as the excitement of a booming economy wore thin. Speculation that the Bank of Japan is actively intervening in keeping the yen down in preparation for the Olympic games looks to be working, expect more upside movement in the cross to retest 79.00 over the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.37
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.10- 78.45

We have continued to see market fallout post the FOMC last week with the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slashed to a week ending 76.20. Price action has been extremely USD bullish across the board with the resulting kiwi left in dust. The Bank of Japan left their cash rate on hold Friday at -0.10% and kept their coronavirus support program in a 8-1 vote out a further 6 months to March 2022. Monday’s investor sentiment improved with equities climbing over 1% and the NZD recovering off its low to 77.20. We have no tier one news on the calendar this week in the cross. We expect the recent turmoil to die down.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.93
Resistance: 78.20
Support: 76.00
Last Weeks Range: 76.33-78.80

This week’s main story has been the overwhelming demand for the US Dollar post the FOMC read midweek when the Fed came out extremely hawkish. It hasn’t been so much about the weakness of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the pair trading down to 77.10 levels nor the strength of the Japanese Yen (JPY) but risk factors and investor positioning. The kiwi did receive a boost from better than predicted GDP numbers, publishing at a whopping 1.6% for the first quarter 2021 with the NZ economy avoiding dipping into a recession after a fourth quarter contraction of -1.0%. Profit taking of short positions is likely to stabalise the cross around 77.20 levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.26
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.04- 78.80

After booking two weeks of declines the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may have found some upside interest Monday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as it popped up from 78.20 to 78.60 reversing late Friday moves. The kiwi is not quite out of the woods yet and needs to push into the 79’s to break the bearish trendline. Here is a pointless but interesting stat- Visitor arrivals in April 2021 is down 3.3M compared to the same time in 2020 – I wonder why. Japanese Industrial Production for May came in at 2.9% after 2.5% was expected showing a strong pickup in output. NZ GDP first quarter 2021 prints Thursday our focus with predictions of around 0.5%- anything below this number could weaken the NZD.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.55
Resistance: 80.00
Support: 77.90
Last Weeks Range: 78.08-79.10

Prices into Tuesday trading sessions continued recent declines from 79.10 to 78.60 as risk conditions waned and equities turned in flat. Japanese Current Account and March quarter GDP printed benign with most of the news around the Olympic Games of late. Perhaps movement has been underpinned by better coronavirus infection rates and news relating to vaccine rollouts. With less than 50 days before the Olympic Games start, doubts are spreading on just how “risky” infection spreading could be and whether the games should be held or not, with a number of high profile Japanese officials calling for the games to be called off. The kiwi trades at the bottom of the recent bullish channel and suggests a rise through 79.50 resistance could be retested.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.79
Resistance: 80.15
Support: 78.00
Last Weeks Range: 78.57-79.70

Trading conditions were thin Monday as the UK and US were on long weekend holidays. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was steady to start the week edging up to 79.70 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) continuing moves upwards. The Japanese Govt extended its coronavirus emergency measures to within 5 weeks of the Olympic Games as the Bank of Japan is said to be considering lengthening out its support package by 6 months from September. With no tier one data out this week in the cross we look to big picture outcomes and global outcomes for direction. It’s very possible we could see a fresh multiyear high th9is week based on the long term bullish trend continuing.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 79.67
Resistance: 80.20
Support: 78.00
Last Weeks Range: 78.43-80.17

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has had a double whammy of bad news late this week taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on a run to 80.10 this morning. Overnight Japanese lawmaker Yamamoto called on the Bank of Japan to raise asset purchases in order to weaken the Yen and increase exports. Well, it worked. Earlier the RBNZ left rates unchanged at the record low of 0.25% and kept a limit of 100B for its govt bond buying purchase program. The central bank said they could hike rates as early as the third quarter of 2022 but this was highly conditional. The RBNZ sees the cash rate around 1.5% by the December quarter of 2023 and inflation at 1.7% ending March 2022 and 1.9% ending March 2023. As we said in the earlier commentary further upside in the cross was likely, the test now is to see if the NZD can hold 80.00 levels and build on its near 2.5 year high.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 79.96
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.96- 80.17

All eyes this week will be on the RBNZ cash rate announcement and policy release. A cautious tone is predicted as they look to bring in more rhetoric on hiking rates and tightening policy as inflation starts to climb. Direction in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross has very much been driven by risk off- risk on sentiment of late with price dropping to 77.90 at the close but recovering Monday to 78.50 as equity markets posted gains. The bullish channel holds firm from the start of 2021 and should reflect further upside in the cross this week if risk flows holds.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.50
Resistance: 79.50
Support: 78.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.92-79.19

With the appetite this week to buy risk products the safe haven Japanese Yen (JPY) has been favoured against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Price shifted down to the bottom of the recent range to 77.90 overnight before returning to the 78.20 area mid-morning. The Japanese economy has begun to shrink again as coronavirus restrictions play a major part. The Olympics and Paralympic games must now be in jeopardy. Japan’s GDP fell 1.3% for the first 3 months of 2021, equating to more than 5% annualised. With vaccine rollouts still incredibly slow, restrictions remain the norm in several regions. NZ Annual Budget is released at 2.0opm NZT today.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.32
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.90- 79.25

Movement in the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been up and down over the past couple of weeks as risk mood has turned from positive to negative to positive several times. The same can be said for late last week and into Monday trading with mood swings changing like a confused teenager. The kiwi posted gains Friday to 79.30 levels nearly reaching the yearly high of 79.45 before dropping back hard Monday to 78.50. Early Tuesday has seen equities improve off lows taking price back to 78.80. Japan has imposed new restrictions in 5 prefectures from last Sunday amid growing calls of tougher restrictions in response to an increasing number of infractions. The new measures will remain in place until 13 June in Gunma, Ishikawa, Okayama. Hiroshima and Kumamoto. With just the NZ Budget on the economic docket this week offshore influences will dominate movement.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.98
Resistance: 79.50
Support: 78.00
Last Weeks Range: 78.22-79.33

The Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross reached a fresh high of 79.40 in early week trading marking the highest level in the pair in over three years since April 2018. The AUD wasn’t able to kick on as risk mood deteriorated. Equity indices dropped in value 3 days straight and US inflation posted for April came in much higher than markets were expecting, spooking investors and sending yield’s lower. The wash up, prices dropped through last week’s open to 78.20 with the kiwi recovering in early Friday sessions to 78.65 as indices are all up over half a percent on the day. With higher highs the theme since mid-April expect the kiwi to retest 79.40
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.68
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 78.21- 79.41

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run north into early morning trading against the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaching 79.40 a multi year high. Broad based US Dollar weakness caused a selloff Friday after Non-Farm Payroll figures disappointed, risk currencies benefiting as the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary policy would clearly run for some time. Price drifted to 79.10 as equity markets look to close lower, but with Friday’s two year NZ inflation expectations rising to 2.05% from 1.89% this should underpin the NZD for a while.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 79.06
Resistance: 79.40
Support: 78.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.71-79.41

Risk markets turned on a dime midweek taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off it’s low of 77.70 to 78.90 into Friday as sentiment improved. NZ employment data boosted the kiwi after printing at 0.6% q/q versus an expected 0.3% for the 3 months ending March increasing the number of people employed in the workforce. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.7%, lower than the 4.9% forecast as eyebrows were raised over a faster economic recovery in NZ than first thought. Japan is expecting a giant household spend up after a 183B build up of forced savings during long stints of lockdowns. The Govt will decide over the next few days whether it will extend the state of emergency in major areas to combat a resurgence of coronavirus. In the meantime we expect the kiwi to post a fresh new April 2018 high if we see 79.00

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.90
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.69- 79.03

Japanese markets are closed this week for Golden Week and will reopen on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was sold off towards the end of the week on risk mood as the Fed’s Kaplan said the Fed was ready to start discussions on tapering their QE program back. The cross ending the week around 78.20 after reaching 79.20 earlier. Japan is struggling to contain a coronavirus resurgence with a record 1050 new cases, with the Olympics set to go ahead in Japan in July this is looking much less likely to go ahead. This week’s action will see volatile somewhat wayward movement but for now the kiwi looks to be pushing for a retest of recent highs as risk mood improves and equities push higher.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.46
Resistance: 79.20
Support: 77.30
Last Weeks Range: 77.98-79.15

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been sold off this week as risk sentiment boosted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 78.35 early Wednesday. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy and their cash rate unchanged as they were widely expected to with a slightly brighter economic view. They will continue with their massive stimulus as they predict they will miss their 2.0% inflation target for years to follow. The slow coronavirus vaccine rollout in Japan is starting to cause concerns over the Olympic Games in Tokyo set for July. With less than 3 months until the games open doubts have been raised as to the preparedness. Only 1.3% of Japanese people have been vaccinated. We expect consolidation around the current levels before going higher and retesting the long-term level at 79.15 from December 2018.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.34
Resistance: 79.20
Support: 77.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.18-78.39

The New Zealand (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross is lower Friday as we predicted falling away on a lack of risk appetite to 77.30. Global equities looked toppy early, as it turns out so did everyone else coming off again last night dragging risk down. NZ CPI advanced 0.8% from the prior quarters 0.5%. For the year ending March a pick up of 1.5% exceeding forecasts of 1.4%. We expected these figures to be higher, I suspect we may see the effects come through of higher prices in the following quarter. The Bank of Japan Rate and policy announcement is next week. On the chart we don’t see declines dropping below 76.80
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.22
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.17- 78.36

With the recent opening of the New Zealand/ Australia travel bubble in play we should see a boost in NZD buying. However early week’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross has been stagnant around 77.50 so far as markets eye up NZ quarterly CPI tomorrow. As usual, we doubt the Japanese calendar will add much excitement to the cross this week with light data only to publish. Looking at the chart we see price balanced nicely between the 20 day and 50 day moving average as investors await tomorrow’s NZ quarter CPI read. We favour NZD selling this week and a retest of 76.60.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.76
Resistance: 78.80
Support: 76.80
Last Weeks Range: 76.66-78.12

After some early week jitters the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to 78.10 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) into Friday sessions as risk sentiment supported the kiwi. Midweek the RBNZ left policy unchanged together with the Large Scale Asset Purchase program of up to $100B and the Funding for Lending Programme. The OCR will remain at the record low of 0.25% for some time. Comments made by Adrian Orr confirming unemployment will need to be much lower and inflation above 2.0% will take considerable time. Comments made by Kuroda warning of downside economic risks put the Yen on notice. A massive rise in US Retail Sales figures for March pushed up equities and the NZD with it. Next week’s attention will be on NZ Q CPI and Japanese Trade Balance. Now that the cross has pushed past 77.90 the 3 week high we should see further upside for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.95
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.65- 78.10

An uneventful last few days has seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) trade in a tight range around the 77.00 area. This morning it ticked a tad lower to 76.85 as the Yen came under pressure. Moving under the 20-day moving average we favour a downside bias this week. The RBNZ announce its cash rate and monetary policy tomorrow with no expectation of any changes to the brief with 100B limit for possible government bond purchases available.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.83
Resistance: 77.90
Support: 76.70
Last Weeks Range: 83.04-84.45

Monday’s prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) climbed to 77.95 extending last week’s gains from 76.60 levels but stalled and giving back gains into Wednesday to 77.15. Japanese Household Spending came in poor at -6.6% compare to -5.0% the third straight drop to February as emergency measures to curb the spread of coronavirus has hurt consumption and the recovery. Analysts are predicting a contraction of growth in the first quarter 2021 as Tokyo and other areas struggle to contain a new wave of coronavirus. The Global Dairy Trade Auction showed a 0.3% rise in the index which was seen a positive after -3.8% the previous week boosting the kiwi. Our prediction over the rest of the week is for the kiwi to retest 78.00 levels.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.47
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.13- 77.94

Price extended to 77.35 Wednesday in the Japanese Yen ((JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair from 76.50 Monday’s open as poor data weighed on the Yen. Japanese Retail Sales fell -1.5% year on year in February and Bank of Japan’s Kuroda vowed to keep buying EFT’s. Kuroda was cautiously optimistic saying economic growth is picking up from the catastrophe that emerged following the coronavirus pandemic. However, Japan is seeing an increase in infections with the seven day average doubling to 1,800 in March. Tanken Manufacturing prints tomorrow of note. We expect the cross to target 78.00 this week.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.26
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 75.63- 77.35

The Japanese owner of the massive container ship which has been blocking the Suez Canal for most of the week has apologised for the disruption to global trade. A risk off tone has extended the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 75.60 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) into Friday trading from Monday’s 78.00 level. About 12% of global trade flows through the canal which connects the Mediterranean to the Red sea and provides the shortest sea link between Asia and Europe, an alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope can take two weeks longer. The only relevant news this week in the cross was the New Zealand Govt adding a new housing policy to restrict the tax incentives on investment property ownership thus devaluing the NZD. We should see a return of form in the kiwi and don’t believe further downside is likely.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 75.91
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 75.60- 78.09

Monday’s open saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) gap to 77.50 on risk sentiment and a sharp close lower in equities and rally in the US Dollar. Monday trading saw another positive day in equities with the 10-year US bond yield dropping 35 points improving risk conditions sending the pair to 78.10. On Friday the Bank of Japan held its OCR rate at -0.1% and increased its bond JGB fluctuation band by 25bps on both sides of 0% announcing a plan to allow quicker cuts in short and long term rates in order to conduct yield curve control and make life easier for financial institutions. Central Bank governor Kuroda is confident the bank will still have room to lower rates if needed. No tier one data this week won’t encourage much price shifts, expect a little excitement Thursday when BoJ Kuroda speaks. We expect the kiwi to have the upper hand and retest last week’s 78.60.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.41
Resistance: 78.70
Support: 77.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.51-79.14

We saw good demand in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) earlier in the week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 79.10 levels before a sharp decline reversed gains. Broad based US Dollar weakness after the dovish Fed decision benefited the kiwi. NZ GDP turned out to be a non-event not altering currency price much at all when it published at -1.0% from the 0.2% predicted. Thursday stock prices fell sharply taking the NZD lower to 78.00. The 2021 bull run from 69.00 remains intact with price around the bottom of the current channel. We expect further rises in the NZD over the coming days/weeks.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.08
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.90- 79.14

Recent Fed communication has seen further buying of risk assets which has extended the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to a new high Monday against the Japanese Yen reaching 78.65 a two-week high before easing back. AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine has been pulled in the eurozone after blood clotting fears put massive doubt in the minds of people. This reversed risk taking the cross down to 78.20 into Tuesday. Thursday’s NZ fourth quarter GDP is the focus this week with expectations of 0.2% growth. Recent trend supports further upside bias in the pair this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 78.61
Resistance: 79.10
Support: 77.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.52-78.66

Risk markets have taken price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair from an early week’s 77.15 to post 78.60. Biden’s 1.9B stimulus package was passed through congress which includes most Americans receiving $1,400 checks probably today. Equity markets have also been very buoyant with the DOW at record levels again overnight. The Japanese economy grew by 2.8% to the end of 2020 with final GDP q/q confirming the economy has shown strength. The economy may be staring down the barrel of negative growth in the first quarter of 2021 however with the pace of the pandemic recovery going well with the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine but not fast enough. Looking forward, March 18th NZ GDP is on the radar with expectations of a solid last quarter 2020 read.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.41
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.13- 78.59

It’s been a wild ride this week with all that’s been happening in the world or markets. Biden’s 1.9T stimulus-bailout bill was passed bringing about risk on, risk off swings. The Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ranged between 77.00 and 78.00 on the chart finally settling this morning around 77.70. Japanese Current Account came in lower than the 2.2T predicted at 1.5T while the Bank of Japan tried to reassure markets after Kuroda insisted he didn’t see it necessary to widen the interest rate target band. This transpired into investors selling stocks- the BoJ stock dropping 19%, the biggest fall since 1991. This week’s economic calendar is thin, we expect risk sentiment to be the main driver.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.60
Resistance: 79.20
Support: 77.00
Last Weeks Range: 77.05-78.20

Further gains were made over the week by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rising to 78.20 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as we hinted would happen. Japanese unemployment came in at 2.9%, lower than the predicted 3.0% for January despite the economic fallout over the pandemic. Of note also has been very little safe haven Yen buying in the face of the recent wave of risk on flow. A massive rise in the GDT dairy auction prices Wednesday with the index rising 15% strangely didn’t impact the kiwi as we thought, but nonetheless this is extremely good for dairy farmers.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 77.82
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 77.05- 78.20

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off the weekly close around 76.90 to squeeze higher to 77.70 Monday against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Risk appetite was boosted with rises in equities- US indices are all up over 2.0% on the day. We expect the kiwi to continue to recover last week’s losses late into the week as it targets 80.00. Key standouts this week are Japanese Unemployment and Consumer Confidence.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 77.72
Resistance: 79.00
Support: 77.00
Last Weeks Range: 76.79-79.20

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its rise against the Japanese Yen (JPY) through the post high of 78.20 from December 2018 yesterday to post 79.20. The pair failed to kick on falling back early Friday to 78.45 as the US Fed chairman Powell testified. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged at 0.25% maintaining its stimulatory policy but with a less dovish review, the central must now include the impact of housing when making monetary decisions. This will make it harder for the RBNZ to maintain an accommodative policy. With equities lower overnight based on higher yields the kiwi slipped to 78.30.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 78.05
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 76.77- 79.18

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to improve against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in early Tuesday trading with the cross reaching a December 2018 high overnight of 77.40. The strong start to the week was confirmed by analysts attributing the outperforming currency to fantastic positive sentiment off the back of recent gains in Iron ore and copper prices. Copper recently reached its highest value in over a decade. Wednesday’s RBNZ meeting should reflect more of the same central bank rhetoric but perhaps with a hint of confidence. The target to the upside is 78.60, a push through here and we view good chances of retesting 80.00.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.88
Resistance: 78.60
Support:76.20
Last Weeks Range: 75.80-77.41

The trend higher in the NZD/JPY pair has continued this week helped by generally positive risk sentiment. The cross traded to a high of 76.71 mid-week before a corrective pullback had it trading sub 76.00 again. That being said, key trend support around 75.60 has not been threatened and while the market holds above that support, the risks remain skewed toward further gains. Any break above 76.75 will open the way for a move to the next resistance level of 78.75. Look for next Wednesday’s RBNZ statement to provide the major focus for the week, and potential for some volatility.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 76.32
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 75.42 – 76.71

With broad market risk sentiment remaining positive, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has continued to make gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The pair traded to a fresh cycle high of 76.29 over the past 24 hours and at this stage there is no sign that the rally is over. There is minor resistance at 76.75, then a more significant resistance level at 78.85. On the downside, key trend support is currently seen at 75.25 and as long as that level remains intact, the risks are skewed toward further gains.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 76.33
Resistance: 76.75
Support: 75.25
Last Weeks Range: 75.35-76.33

A positive risk environment has seen the NZDJPY pair make solid gains over recent weeks. The pair traded to its highest level since March 2019 yesterday touching a high of 76.10 but has since retraced to currently trade around 75.70. For now, the trend is firmly to the topside and a test of the next resistance levels at 76.80 seems likely in the coming week. Key trend support comes in at 73.00 and as long as the market holds above that level, the risks remain skewed toward further gains.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 75.65
Resistance: 76.80
Support: 73.00
Last Weeks Range: 75.31-76.13

As we said last week, a retest of the yearly high looked possible if risk on conditions continued, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) moving to 75.60 late Friday against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Prices eased back to close the week around 75.15 where they have been bouncing around into Tuesday. Today’s NZ unemployment rate released at 4.9% surprising market analysts boosting the kiwi to 75.50
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 75.51
Resistance: 76.20
Support: 74.00
Last Weeks Range: 74.12-75.68

Choppy conditions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross through Thursday trading into Friday with the kiwi recovering off 74.15 back to 75.00 levels. Equity markets were back in black following the biggest one day drop since October – the DOW up 2.0%. Meanwhile Japanese CLI y/y disappointed at -0.3% and Retail Sales was also down -0.3% pressuring the JPY. A retest of the yearly high at 75.55 looks viable prior to the weekly close if positive risk sentiment continues.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 74.78
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 74.12- 75.10

After falling to 73.50 early last week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has recovered well into Tuesday to 74.60 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Risk markets improved throughout the week as equities continue to rise into record territory. The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting came and went without fanfare – the central bank maintaining their 10year JGB yield target of 0.00% and keeping rates at -0.10%. The bank also lowered its economic growth forecast from -5.5% to -5.6% for the year ending March 2021. Bullish momentum should remain this week with a possible retest of 75.00.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 74.66
Resistance: 75.60
Support: 73.60
Last Weeks Range: 73.68-74.90

Movement in the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross over the Christmas and New Year period has seen the kiwi push higher to April 2019 lofty highs of 75.50 levels. Last week prices consolidated in the 74.75 region as market liquidity ramped up for 2021 although risk markets faltered late in the piece taking price down to under 74.00 at the close. This week’s action has been risk off following the poor Chinese 4th Q GDP release despite ending on a strong note in 2020. We don’t expect the kiwi to clock further losses this week instead we expect a recovery back into the mid 74’s. Bank of Japan monetary statement is Thursday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 73.95
Resistance: 75.50
Support: 73.60
Last Weeks Range: 73.65-75.04

Mixed overnight trading sessions saw the Japanese Yen (JPY) push higher, one of the best performing currencies in the past few days. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) generally started the week on the back foot but has gained a little momentum over the past few hours reaching 73.40. Even though we have seen a pullback from last week’s 74.00 level to where we are now the bullish trend is still very much on. Very little tier one data is publishing this week suggesting the pair will take its directional cues from offshore headlines.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 73.17
Resistance: 73.00
Support: 72.00
Last Weeks Range: 73.04-74.03

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a December 2019 high Friday of 73.45 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) before losing upside momentum and easing back a tad into Tuesday trading. Not only does recent positive economic data represent further upside in the cross but as risk flow with coronavirus vaccine headlines driving general risk sentiment higher we should see 75.00 soon. Recent news out of the Bank of Japan camp is that based on Governor Kuroda’s push for the BoJ to invest in the Tokyo stock market, the central bank has racked up 56B in profits. We expect 74.80 resistance from April 2019 the next target for the kiwi to be reached in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 73.25
Resistance: 73.60
Support: 72.00
Last Weeks Range: 72.22-73.45

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has cleared the early November high of 72.80 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) climbing to a fresh high of 73.25 Thursday. In letters exchanged early in the week by Reserve Bank Governor Orr and Finance Minister Robertson, Robertson asked Orr how rising housing prices could be included into the monetary policy mandate to stem the over inflated housing market. Orr response was a little prickly saying housing inflation was already factored into spending and CPI. The exchange of letters sent the kiwi half a cent higher. A retest of 73.75 looks inevitable at this point- the high of December 2019.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 72.98
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 71.88- 73.24

Monday’s NZ Retail Sales for the third quarter came in at 28% a massive turnaround from the second quarter -14% advancing the New Zealand Dollar to 72.40 against the Japanese Yen into Tuesday sessions. A Japanese bank holiday created thin trading conditions probably assisting to extend the price higher. The daily high at 72.55 from 3 weeks back is the target – the double top from early January this year. Coronavirus vaccine headlines will again be the driver this week, markets hanging off every bit of news of late. NZ Trade Balance for October publishes Thursday but may not shift price.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 72.51
Resistance: 73.35
Support: 68.80
Last Weeks Range: 71.52-72.51

Early week risk on flow in the New Zealand Dollar( NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair led to small rises in the kiwi to 72.30 but most of the past few days have been restricted to range trading around 71.80. Coronavirus fears are definitely affecting how investors are trading, casting a shadow over further rises as punters become more sensitive to the appeal of the safer Yen. Of concern for the Japanese is the rising number of new coronavirus cases, Thursday recording a record 2,385 cases, a fresh high the second day running. If the kiwi can hold up around current levels we could see another rally higher possibly testing the daily high of 73.40 from May 2019.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 71.77
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 71.52- 72.28

A less dovish RBNZ and risk on market sentiment is driving the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Trading around 72.00 levels Tuesday the kiwi should retest prior highs at 72.75 this week. Coronavirus vaccine hopeful Moderna released news that their vaccine has been 94.5% effective in trials boosted risk products with equities and crude oil also rallying. Crucially on the chart last week’s spike to 72.70 was the first daily close above 71.90 since January this year. No tier one data on the economic docket should ensure offshore headline influences dominate movement this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 72.16
Resistance: 73.00
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 74.48-72.78

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke into new territory Thursday reaching 72.75 the mid-January 2020 high versus the Japanese Yen (JPY). The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday at 0.25% as well as the large asset purchases program. The committee agreed that additional stimulus would be provided through a “funding for Lending Program” (FLP) starting in December. This will allow the central bank to pass on cheap funding costs with lower interest rates to banks. The less dovish statement improved the kiwi with a cut to the current 0.25% rate potentially not being needed until May 2021. Also of note, negative rates may not need to be carried out if the economy’s inflation and employment lift over the coming months.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 71.84
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.12- 72.78

The Japanese Yen (JPY) absolutely smoked in late Monday trading against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as markets turned the heat up on risk appetite. Starting out the week around the 70.00 area price has spiked to 72.00. Equity markets are higher – the DOW up over 4.5% on the day after news broke that Pfizer and BioNTech coronavirus vaccine is proving 90% effective in warding off infections which is very encouraging news. Earlier the Bank of Japan were on the wires saying prematurely ending their easy monetary policy would be a mistake given the ongoing impact coronavirus is having on the economy. They will continue to monitor the impact of the current policy. Japan’s Tankan -Manufacturing Index came in -13 compared to -26 in the previous month. It’s Japan’s best result since February this year but still highlights pessimism among Japanese companies. Any further topside in the pair could be limited given the enormous shift to 72.00. Look for a reversal over the next couple of days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 71.72
Resistance: 73.20
Support: 70.40
Last Weeks Range: 69.35-72.07

Choppy trading for the week in the NZD/JPY cross but the NZD has ended up ahead after holding above the 69.00 support level and is now at the 70.17 level taking advantage of the more prevalent risk-on tone. Meanwhile Japanese economic data remains patchy, with Japan yesterday publishing the October Jibun Bank Services PMI, which came in at 47.7, and later today September Labour Cash Earnings will be out. Forecast is for -2.2% YoY, and Overall Household Spending for the same month, expected to have fallen by 10.7% compared to a year earlier. The NZD/JPY failed to hold the 70.48 level seen on Wednesday but looks solid above the 70.00 mark and if the risk-on tone prevails into next week another push over the 70.50 level is likely.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.17
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.01- 70.47

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is up slightly on the open to 69.40 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) rebounding off last week’s late low at 68.90. Japanese Manufacturing read for October looked positive with companies reporting further optimism. However, most are still experiencing the ongoing negative effects on industry from the pandemic denting client demand. It’s a huge week of event risk with a big docket of data printing including the main event the US Election. If the kiwi can avoid the 69.00 level it will be doing well.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.43
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 68.90
Last Weeks Range: 68.87-70.22

There were no surprises this week from the Bank of Japan, the central bank leaves rates on hold and fine tuning economic projections. The bank are committed to doing more if needed. There was no real event risk post release just further selling of JPY. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been sold off heavily most of the week with price reaching 69.00 into Friday as markets turned risk averse. Japanese Retail Sales came in softer than expected at -8.7% y/y pulling on the Yen. The kiwi has recovered Friday to 69.35 but still trades at the bottom of recent ranges. Next week sees NZ Unemployment figures
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.27
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.96- 70.26

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 70.30 Monday after kicking off the week just below pivotal 70.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The kiwi held its own as risk sentiment deteriorated and equity markets slid lower falling to 70.00, given equity declines over 2.0% on all indices the NZD should have been sold off in larger volumes. The cross sits in a bullish channel currently- if we see a break above 70.60 resistance we think the pair could retest the long term high at 71.80 of January this year. The Bank of Japan meet later in the week to discuss policy strategy.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.04
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 69.25
Last Weeks Range: 69.25-70.27

The New Zealand Dollar dipped to 69.25 midweek against the Japanese Yen (JPY) falling below the 20-day moving average. Risk improved into Thursday on the prospects of a US fiscal stimulus deal being reached but markets remain cautious. The kiwi reversed losses to 70.02 midday Friday. 70.40 is the next point of resistance on the chart, we think the cross should push into the mid 70’s pre weekly close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.82
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.24- 70.08

Early Monday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) took a peak at 70.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) but failed to break this pivotal price falling to 69.60 into Tuesday sessions. Japanese exports for September improved for the first time in 7 months as the impact on global trading looks to be easing. Perhaps the first sign that the worst effects of coronavirus have passed. NZ quarterly CPI is Friday with forecasts of a bounce higher to 0.9% as forecasters question recent comments from the RBNZ as to negative rates- certainly if we are seeing inflationary targets being met they won’t need to cut rates into the negatives? The recent low at 69.25 should hold this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.60
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 69.50
Last Weeks Range: 69.21-70.35

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held its ground in the early stages of weekly trading around the 70.20 zone against the Japanese Yen (JPY) but has succumbed to risk mood pressures dropping to 69.25 during Thursday sessions. RBNZ’s Hawkesby all but said the central bank would drop the cash rate into negative territory, it’s just a question of timing now. Looking into next week we have 3rd quarter CPI releasing- expected to be a negative read. On the chart we see strong support at 69.00, we expect the kiwi to reclaim losses into the close and get close to 70.00
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.44
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.19- 70.43

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was quick off the mark Monday recovering last week’s losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price shifting lower to the 70.00 mark. Data out in Japan was mixed- The Bank of Japan’s Producer Price Index fell by 0.8% in September after declining by 0.6% in August, the drop was larger than analysts were predicting. Machinery Tools Orders rose by 0.2% in August but was significantly lower than July’s 6.3% but a better reading than the -1.0% predicted. Downside movement in the pair we think is limited to the 69.80 level with chances we could see a retest of the prior high at 70.50 this week as politics influences risk conditions.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.03
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 68.50
Last Weeks Range: 69.41-70.50

Risk sentiment yo-yoed (is that a word) over the week with new headlines dominating movement in the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair. President Trump recovered from coronavirus, was released from hospital, spoke about a stimulus plan being done then backtracked saying he would review the fiscal stimulus after the election. The news of talks with Nancy Pelosi were back on and they were looking to agree on a plan before the 3rd November election. The kiwi recovered off a weekly low of 69.40 Thursday to trade back around 69.80 Friday. If we see another night of strong equity/stock prices we should be back over the 70.00 mark in this cross.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.83
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.40- 70.33

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has well and truly recovered off the low of 68.70 a fortnight ago against the Japanese Yen (JPY) extending last week’s gains to close the week around 69.80. This week’s feel good mood based and risk on flow into Tuesday off the back of President Trump ‘s positive prognosis has renewed optimism boosting price to 70.30. Also of note are signs the President wants to move ahead with further US fiscal stimulus. If the risk tone continues the next target on the chart is 71.15 the triple highs seen mid-September. NZ ANZ Business Confidence releases Thursday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.31
Resistance: 70.80
Support: 69.00
Last Weeks Range: 69.08-70.35

The all-important Japanese Tankan report was an improvement on the losses suffered in the previous six quarters, although remains deeply in the red and did little to spur JPY levels.
Good performance by the NZD against the JPY this week up from a low of 68.90 to a high of 70.25. Currently around 70.20 with next resistance at 70.80 and likely to test this level next week if the current favourable risk-on tone remains.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.07
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.91- 70.25

The theme of this week has really been dominated by risk-off investor sentiment. It has persisted for much of the week and triggered a selloff in riskier assets. The NZD will always suffer in this environment and this week is a good case in point. The NZDJPY pair was traded at 71.20 during Friday’s season last week, but today the cross opens just above 69.00 have been as low as 68.64 overnight. There is big support toward 68.50 and we expect that to contain any further downside attempts in the coming days. As such, clients looking to transfer JPY to NZD should take advantage of this current weakness and think seriously about buying New Zealand dollars (NZD) around the current level.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.05
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.64 – 71.20

Japanese markets are enjoying a long weekend and won’t be back until Wednesday. Risk tone deteriorated around midday Monday in thin markets dropping the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross from 70.70 to 69.55 early Tuesday. Although a little profit taking of short NZD positions have taken the kiwi back to 69.80, i’m not sure we will see the cross much above 70.00 this week. The RBNZ are out tomorrow at their monetary policy meeting and should be a tad pessimistic on overall economic outlook and negative interest rates to come.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.75
Resistance: 71.80
Support: 69.00
Last Weeks Range: 69.56-71.21

It’s been a volatile week in the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair. The kiwi reached a low of 70.05 yesterday but has rebounded back towards 70.65 during Friday trading. Second quarter NZ GDP was overall a non-event in terms of currency movement as figures showed a -12.2% decline to the 3 months ending 30th June just off estimates of -12.5%. This marks the second time in a decade NZ has entered a recession after the 2008 GFC and the worst quarter of growth since records began. The Bank of Japan maintained their key rate at -0.10% and monetary policy emergency loan programs in the coronavirus affected economy struggles back. The country had its first leader change in nearly 8 years as Yoshihide Suga took office. As the cross bounces off the 100-day moving average we expect price to ease lower into the close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.92
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.03- 71.21

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) looked perky early Monday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaching 71.07. With risk mood improving based on coronavirus vaccine news and equity market indices posting fresh highs the cross should have pushed higher but alas lost momentum after Japanese Industrial Production printed up on expectations and Yoshihide Suga took office as the new Japanese Prime Minister. Attention is with NZ second quarter GDP Thursday along with the Bank of Tokyo (BoT) Monetary Policy Statement. We think the cross may ease lower over the week with “feel good” going on in Japan.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.69
Resistance: 71.40
Support: 70.15
Last Weeks Range: 69.87-72.24

We predicted earlier that the NZD would reverse some of last week’s gains and fall away towards 70.60. Price indeed did drop with a “risk off’ sentiment extending price lower Wednesday to 69.85. Second quarter Japanese GDP had a lot to do with this coming in at a poor -7.9% showing a deepening contraction, the worst in the county’s history. As equity markets recovered so did the kiwi pushing up sharply off the low to 71.20 before depreciating again Friday to 70.50. Next week’s second quarter GDP is our focus from here.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.71
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.85- 71.45

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell Monday to 71.10 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) with positive Japanese data and a slight “risk off” tone developing. The Coincident Indicator Index rose 1.8 points Monday which is a measure data including factory output, employment and retail sales to 78 from 76.2 In July. This shows overall improvement in the economy despite surges in coronavirus cases over the past month. US/China tensions are again making headlines with the US saying they are considering a ban of exports of components from China chipmaker SMIC. Expected direction: Retest of 70.60.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 71.07
Resistance: 72.00
Support: 70.50
Last Weeks Range: 70.89-71.97

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) blew through long-term double top resistance at 71.65 Wednesday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) but couldn’t hold onto gains as equity prices dropped sharply Thursday sending prices sharply lower to 71.00. The RBNZ Wednesday signalled no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) being overvalued and started conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates in efforts to ward off low inflation. Orr saying “the best contribution we can make to financial stability is to ensure we head off unnecessarily low inflation or deflation”. Earlier of note- Japanese Unemployment came in lower than the 3.0% predicted at 2.9% for July slightly up on June’s 2.8%, but nevertheless consistent amid the coronavirus affected economy.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 71.19
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.51- 71.97

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is sitting at long term highs against the Japanese Yen (JPY) testing the triple tops at 71.40 in Tuesday sessions. Price at 71.40 has not been broken since January 2020. Shinzo Abe the Japanese Prime Minister resigned on health issues and fronted the media yesterday- “The government will need to continue to deal with the pandemic and do what’s necessary to contain it while limiting the economic damage … whoever becomes the prime minister, he or she will have to face the same issue and take the same necessary steps”. Monday’s Japanese data releases have not been pretty with Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures lower. Just released was the Japanese unemployment rate which came in at 2.9% down from the 3% expected. This has taken the cross off its peak slightly lower. We expect the equity “feel good” mood to push this pair higher over the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 71.33
Resistance: 71.70
Support: 70.60
Last Weeks Range: 69.08-71.69

Risk improved Thursday after Fed news released, taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) from mid 69.00’s to 70.80 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The knee jerk reaction post the Fed announcement took price outside of the recent range through 70.60. NZ Consumer Confidence fell this morning for August which should cap further rallies higher. But don’t count on it given the strength of the “risk” trade. We expect a retest of the prior double top at 71.70
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 71.12
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.05- 71.16

An upbeat tone in Asian equities as well as US equities sent the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher Monday to 76.10 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The kiwi failed to kick on against the Yen (JPY) after NZ Retail Sales published slightly ahead of expectation for the June quarter at -14.6% compared to -16.3% expected but it’s a terrible result nonetheless. It’s clear to see that retailers have really struggled through coronavirus plummeting by a whopping 15%. The economic calendar is very thin this week with all eyes on the only significant event – the Jackson Hole Symposium starting Thursday. Risk factors will clearly play a part particularly in coronavirus headlines around vaccines. Weekly expected direction: Holding support at 75.60
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.15
Resistance: 70.00
Support: 68.80
Last Weeks Range: 68.76-70.05

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped back below the game line at the 69.70 level to reach a fresh 7 week low of 68.75 during early Friday trading. A dovish Fed has unsettled markets sending risk related currencies lower. Japan’s trade surplus for July improved after 4 months of poor export numbers. Reports showed an 8.2% increase in exports to China, the first rise in 7 months. Looking ahead we have NZ quarterly Retail Sales otherwise it could be a quiet week.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.01
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.75- 70.04

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended Friday’s declines into Monday dropping down below key support at 69.50 to 69.25. It has since recovered to 69.50, if it can maintain this level over the following couple of sessions the kiwi may take a look at 70.00 again. Japan has suffered its worst economic downturn in 40 years as second quarter GDP comes in -7.8%. Annualised this is 27.8% for the April to June months and compares to the worst result on record from 1980. Personal spending plunged as households and businesses closed and exports froze. Expected weekly direction: 70.00- to 70.50.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.30
Resistance: 70.60
Support: 68.60
Last Weeks Range:69.30-70.52

Japanese Yen (JPY) demand is reflecting a cautious tone this week with coronavirus worry outlook weighing heavy. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has also looked shaky throughout the week with the pair battling to stay above the 70.00-mark Friday. The RBNZ were dovish Wednesday as we expected with the central bank increasing their Asset buying program from 60B to 100B. If the kiwi can stay above 69.50 it should retest 71.80 risk prevailing down the track. Next week’s economic docket looks slim pickings.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.88
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.58- 70.51

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) declined into the weekly close from the fortnight high of 70.60 continuing the bearish mood into Monday trading down to 69.70. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said he would consider cutting sales tax as the govt needs to secure financial stability for the future. Looking ahead the main event on the calendar is the RBNZ release tomorrow and may look to increase recent stimulus. But with the economy delivering good news recently they may just hold off. Further falls through 69.50 could spell further trouble for the kiwi. Expected weekly direction: Retest 70.00.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.90
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 69.50
Last Weeks Range: 69.69-70.61

After a shaky range bound week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair, price early Friday has broken higher to reach 70.60, a two-week high. The positive run of data in Japan continued with Manufacturing coming in at 45.2 compared to 42.6 for July but it hasn’t been enough to overpower general risk sentiment over the last few hours with commodities and equity markets all posting solid gains and boosting the kiwi. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate and policy announcement holds our focus with expectations the central bank could increase its LSAPs (Large Scale Asset Purchases Programme) or QE to some by buying up more govt bonds. We expect the NZD to come under pressure over the coming days.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.52
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.84- 70.60

Little action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross sees the price consolidate around the 70.00 mark Tuesday. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter ending 30 June came in at -0.6% from -0.7% yesterday showing the economy shrank at the same pace estimated but improving on the previous two quarters, the Japanese economy is still in a technical recession. NZ unemployment prints tomorrow and is expected to reflect a rising number of around 5.5% – all things considered, this would be an extremely good result. Weekly expected direction: Risk to dictate- higher.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.17
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 66.00
Last Weeks Range: 69.55-70.57

Risk markets have been cautious this week pre US GDP and Fed announcement causing the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to drift off against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 69.50 Thursday. Early Friday saw a price shift as investors took on more risk amid further coronavirus vaccine headline news recovering to 70.20. We still favour upside moves in the pair following the long term 50 day moving average trendline with another crack at the double top of 71.60 the next target. Nothing on the calendar next week so movement will be risk based- again.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.91
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.53- 70.56

The Japanese Yen (JPY) opened the week in a positive mood after returning from a long weekend. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is looking a bit shaky into Tuesday with more risk averse trading conditions looking like entering the fold. Trading just off the weekly open at 70.40 price action looks to take on a downside bias from the double rejection at the 71.50 zone. 68.15 support should hold depending on overall risk tone. Japanese Retail Sales and later the Unemployment Rate release (3.0% expected vs 2.9% in May) could weaken the Yen if the numbers surprise.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.53
Resistance: 71.65
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range:

A smidgen of risk on flow Monday has seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) move higher to 70.50 levels against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as it eyes the recent triple top high of 70.70. Last week’s Bank of Japan monetary statement came and went without a mention, except to highlight the expectation that the Japanese economy will be in far better shape in the second half of the year. Covid cases in Japan are still causing concern with 3,400 new cases in the past week. With no data announcement scheduled this week for the cross movement will be based on geopolitical headlines and risk sentiment.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.55
Resistance: 70.70
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 69.81-70.61

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 70.70 early in the week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) but failed to push on falling back Thursday to 70.15 preferring to pivot around this area into Friday sessions. The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Statement Wednesday came and went with no real excitement as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left their policy tools unchanged. The bank predicted GDP to shrink by 4.7% in the 2020 year with the second half of the calendar looking a little more buoyant. The calendar next week is fairly nude so we could see price bounce around current levels for a while pending risk mood and coronavirus headlines.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.16
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.80- 70.70

As we said Friday the safe haven Japanese Yen (JPY) was sought taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) under 70.00 to 69.90 closing around the 70.20 mark. Monday has seen renewed optimism with the pair back at 70.60 early Tuesday. The Japanese Govt is reluctant to reinstate a state of emergency because of an upward trend in coronavirus but finance minister Nichimura warned the contraction to the economy will be severe. He said they need to impose further restrictions on restaurants and bars not taking preventative measures seriously enough. The Bank of Japan Rate announcement and policy statement is tomorrow which shouldn’t create much excitement as they more than likely retain their current stance. Risk allowing we could see a retest of the prior high from mid-June of 71.60 tested.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.01
Resistance: 70.70
Support: 69.70
Last Weeks Range: 69.97-70.71

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its incline against the Japanese Yen (JPY) over the week to 70.50 Friday. It did however lose a little momentum midweek after reaching 70.70. Coronavirus worries are back impacting risk products with equities all down overnight as surges in new cases skyrocketed in the States. Japanese Current Account released above expectation for May along with Machinery Orders and other data boosted the JPY. NZ Business Confidence still showed pessimism with export intentions remaining subdued. The positive thing was that a net 15% of companies expect to cut jobs versus 35% last month. If coronavirus worsens in the States we expect more flow into the safe haven JPY to take place taking the kiwi lower.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.16
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.08- 70.70

As the new week got underway the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) carried on its bullish momentum against the Japanese Yen (JPY) reaching 70.65 early Tuesday. Risk appetite resurgence has pushed up equity prices shrugging off any late week bearish investor action. With very little on the calendar this week price movement will be largely based on coronavirus headlines and risk mood.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.40
Resistance: 70.50
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 68.61-70.25

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found some direction over the week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) climbing from 68.90 to 70.25 Friday. Posting a fresh 3 week daily high of 70.00 the kiwi looks poised to go higher if risk allows. The kiwi has been well supported this week on the resurgence of global risk appetite – pushed along by the news of vaccines for Covid-19. Coronavirus cases in Tokyo have spiked as the country prepares to relax travel restrictions at airports. This couldn’t come at a worse time and could put a strain on hospitals. The kiwi now targets the previous high at 71.60
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.06
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.62- 70.25

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edged higher Monday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 69.20 in an uneventful start to the week. Risk sentiment recovered in early trading flowing into Tuesday but with macroeconomic event risk this week we suspect the cross could be volatile towards Thursday. On the calendar it is just ANZ Business Confidence for June printing later today. Watch for headlines in the US -China trade negotiations spilling onto tit for tat restrictions on US officials in Hong Kong.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.12
Resistance: 70.00
Support: 68.00
Last Weeks Range: 68.42-69.66

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retraced moved lower from 69.65 trading down to 68.40 post RBNZ the announcement against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as Governor Orr delivered a dovish forward guidance. Risks remain to the downside for the kiwi with a lot of work yet to be done to escape from the jaws of coronavirus. If necessary Orr said he would expand on the govt QE package. The NZD recovered losses into Friday back at 69.00. Looking ahead we have Japanese unemployment and ANZ Business Confidence. For now look for price to shape towards 70.00 into the weekly close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 68.79
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.12- 69.65

Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair rose off the weekly open at 68.40 to initially gap lower to 68.10 before risk sentiment drove the cross to 69.40 into Tuesday trading. The kiwi continues to find demand on dips in an otherwise quiet week of data. All eyes will be on the RBNZ statement and cash Wednesday with expectations the central bank will leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.25% and continue with their QE program of 60B. We are picking a dovish stance- this being said we could see the kiwi slide.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.27
Resistance: 70.00
Support: 68.00
Last Weeks Range: 68.11-70.00

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retreated off 70.00 midweek to drift lower into the mid 68’s The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to sit tight at their monetary policy meeting this week but won’t hesitate to increase their govt bond purchases if necessary in the coming months. Yesterday’s NZ first quarter GDP printed lower than predicted at -1.6% adding pressure to the kiwi. The flight to safety trade back into Yen might have the kiwi falling further into the weekly close.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 68.59
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.38- 70.02

Any setbacks in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) should be well supported above 68.20 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the kiwi pushes higher off the weekly open above 69.40. Risk off flow seems to have halted for the moment as the Fed announced overnight that they were changing up their bond buying program- markets have reacted positively on the news. The Bank of Japan is expected to bring a dovish tone today to their monetary policy statement and rate release, the BoJ have already said they will do everything necessary to boost the economy and keep yield prices low. A retest at 70.00 looks promising if momentum for the kiwi continues.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.56
Resistance: 71.50
Support: 67.00
Last Weeks Range: 68.20-71.26

The New Zealand Dollar has come off its recent late January 2020 high of 71.65 dropping away to 68.60 into Friday sessions. A fresh bout of “risk off’ has hit market sentiment with second wave coronavirus concerns. Investor reaction to the dovish Fed also bought buyers of JPY back into the fray. The worry for JPY buyers is, does the NZD have enough legs to regain support to retest the prior high or has it run out of steam for now.? Technically if price drifts below 67.80 we could see further downside develop.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 68.51
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.22- 71.59

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to stage a massive reversal against the Japanese Yen reaching 71.60 Tuesday. Now into the third week of its bull run after breaking resistance at 66.00 risk flow has been all NZD action. The pair hit its 71.30 target overnight but has since dropped a little to 71.15 but still looks technically strong. Japan’s economy contracted more than predicted with GDP first quarter releasing -0.6% after -0.5% was expected and formally putting Japan into a recession. ANZ Business Confidence is later today and will be interesting. If we see price stabilise above 71.30 this could pave the way for a move to 73.00 in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 70.74
Resistance: 73.00
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 67.52-71.65

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to benefit from risk on flows against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and broad based US Dollar weakness climbing to 74.95 Wednesday morning. An extremely quiet week on data should indicate more of the same with the yearly open of 76.20 fast coming into play. We have positive sentiment around the reopening of Tokyo and Osaka going back to normal but for now upward bias in the cross remains.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.66
Resistance: 71.15
Support: 67.00
Last Weeks Range: 66.31-69.75

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has taken a back seat to risk sentiment for most of the week dropping back against the preferred New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 63.80 Friday. Japan has lifted the Covid-19 state of emergency which turned the Yen a little bid. We are yet to see market fallout from China/US trade tensions, when we do we can expect a sharp reversal south with price falling back into recent ranges. With absolutely nuda on the calendar next week and a NZ holiday Monday we could see price drift a little lower.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 66.52
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 65.48- 67.10

A daily close above the previous high at 66.02 in the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair Wednesday to 66.10 marks a possible break higher from the sideways movement we have seen over the last 10 weeks. Recession hit Japan exports plunged 22% for April making it the worst drop in over a decade as Japan struggles to juggle the health risks of coronavirus. Shipments to the US have fallen by 39% while imports only rose 1.6%. Exports to the EU dropped 28% while imported products fell 7%. Japan has an unscheduled monetary policy announcement at 1pm NZT today with expectation of a new “measure” to provide additional funding to financial institutions and banks. The risk recovery and the sell off in the Yen may be short lived if we see price fall back into its recent zone below 66.00 over the next couple of days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 65.77
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 63.47- 66.24

With risk markets feeling positive around a potential coronavirus vaccine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed hard off its recent low of 63.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) back to 64.80 into Tuesday. Recovering from lower band recent support was almost to be expected, but along with poor Japanese data adding fuel to the fire, the Yen was sold as investors sought more risk products. Japanese GDP estimate for the first quarter came in at -0.9% after the fourth quarter 2019 figures were also recessionary at -1.8%. We expect the cross to push towards the top of the 8-week range to 66.00
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 64.81
Resistance: 65.70
Support: 63.50
Last Weeks Range: 63.45-65.71

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned all of last week’s gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the kiwi underperformed taking the price from 65.80 to 64.00 into Friday. Governor Orr increased the QE package to 60B which was not unexpected but as he spoke about the possibility of negative interest rates towards the end of the year, this was seen as a dovish position to markets sending the kiwi reeling. Next week could see Japan officially slip into a recession with preliminary GDP expected to print around -1.8% for the first quarter of 2020. This comes after 4th quarter 2019 printed -1.6%. The cross sits at the bottom of a 7-week range, we expect the NZD to recover losses back above 66.00 as the kiwi stabalises.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 64.35
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 63.76- 65.79

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) remains trapped in its 7-week range band between 63.80 on the low side and 66.00 on the high side. Price has supported the kiwi recently as risk appetite has improved taking the cross to 65.80 Tuesday. The People’s Bank of China said they would use more powerful monetary policy in response to the economic aftermath of coronavirus. RBNZ policy statement Wednesday is expected to highlight additional QE stimulus before the Annual Budget release Thursday. We expect a break through the upper band around 66.00 in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 65.13
Resistance:65.80
Support: 64.15
Last Weeks Range: 63.55-65.78

After falling to a 4-week low yesterday of 63.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered back to 64.70 as risk markets improved. NZ unemployment jumped a modest 5,000 in the March quarter to take the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.0% slightly better than the expected 4.4%. Clearly these first quarter figures only partially reflect the overall economic fallout from coronavirus with expectations of employment and growth to rise significantly over the second and third periods. Prime Minister Abe will keep Japan in a state of emergency until 31 May saying it was necessary to reduce the number of new cases and limit the strain on hospitals. The Bank of Japan announced they would be expanding its monetary stimulus by buying unlimited amounts of bonds in order to keep borrowing costs low. The pair is still trading in a range from mid March with the upper band price at 66.00 looking like it could be retested in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 64.81
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 63.55- 64.90

The New Zealand Dollar (NZ) extended its decline off the weekly open from last week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 64.15 before recovering into Tuesday. Prime Minister Abe will keep Japan in a state of emergency until 31 May saying it was necessary to reduce the number of new cases and limit the strain on hospitals. The Bank of Japan announced they would be expanding its monetary stimulus by buying unlimited amounts of bonds in order to keep borrowing costs low. Focus this week is with NZ Unemployment figures tomorrow and quarterly Inflation expectations Thursday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 64.53
Resistance: 66.00
Support: 64.10
Last Weeks Range: 64.11-66.09

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen continues to operate within recent ranges this week, overnight a little higher to 64.78. The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday at -0.10% and offered additional easing measures including further bond buying and small changes to policy going forward. Japan’s unemployment rate rose 2.5% in March the highest it has been in 12 months highlighting the effects the virus is having on the economy- this compares to the 2.4% in February. On the chart the pair looks poised for a breakout in the current pattern setup, but we are not sure which way with uncertainty in the air.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 64.88
Resistance: 65.40
Support: 64.30
Last Weeks Range: 63.71-65.60

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) perked up overnight recovering from 63.80 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to trade back around the 65.00 mark as risk currencies were preferred. It’s understood the Bank of Japan may improve its bond buying limit when they meet next week allowing unlimited government bond purchases and keeping the 10 year target at 0%. The massive stimulus package is expected to weigh on Tokyo’s budget at a time the country is trying to avoid a coronavirus led recession. Rallies in the cross look limited and we suspect a risk off run over the following days could take us much lower.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 64.50
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 63.72- 65.60

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its bullish move from last week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 65.60 after Prime Minister Ardern confirmed NZ would be moving out of lockdown level 4 on the 27th of April yesterday. The kiwi was also boosted earlier from higher inflation numbers published for the March quarter. With a thin calendar this week in the pair focus will be on Japan’s building coronavirus numbers and the warning doctors have given the health system of a possible collapse. The bullish trendline from late March’s 61.80 looks intact and should give the kiwi further upside bias this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 66.00
Resistance: 64.84
Support: 64.00
Last Weeks Range: 63.83-66.00

Risk on sentiment this week has boosted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 66.15 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) a four week high. As many traders return from the Easter break China’s Trade Balance report didn’t look too horrible as the country emerges from coronavirus lockdowns. The report showed a drop in exports of 6.6% from a year earlier after a 17.0% drop between January and February. US equity markets surged higher over 3% overnight and continue to leave the late March lows behind. We see upside bias from 65.30 levels this week.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 65.04
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 64.50- 66.15

US stocks/equities have climbed over 5% overnight with risk markets improving as coronavirus data out of the US and Italy improves- mood improves. The Japanese Yen has been sold across the board with the New Zealand Dollar improving to 65.00 from the weekly open of 63.60. Tokyo unveiled a massive 1Trillion support stimulus package to curb the ongoing economic fallout from Covid-19. Japan’s Prime Minister has declared a national emergency but refuses to bring in a nationwide lockdown. If numbers across the globe fall “risk” will benefit and push the kiwi higher.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 64.71
Resistance: 66.00
Support: 63.00
Last Weeks Range: 63.08-65.49

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading just off the week’s open of 65.10 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at 63.80 Friday and looks reasonably stable having rejected 63.20 several times this week. Risk sentiment is still the main driver behind the pair as we see a little more JPY demand starting to come through. The Bank of Japan has offered discouraging headlines with PM Abe proposing a record 60 Trillion stimulus package which is worth more than 10% of the country’s GDP. This comes less than 4 months after his last economic stimulus. This package is bigger than the one needed to boost the economy during the 2008 GFC. Japan is in risk of a deepening economic recession due to the pandemic. We are picking further risk related NZD declines next week and could retest the fortnight low of 61.90

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 63.94
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 63.07- 65.47

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has broken the recent bearish trendline against the Japanese Yen (JPY) around 63.80 climbing to 66.10 overnight amid a bout of huge US Dollar weakness as US equities bounce higher. The kiwi was well supported as we have seen a little more “risk” buying take place. With the Bank of Japan’s massive QE program in place which will continue for some time, the central bank is worried the economy will stagnate well after overseas economies recover with the impact of coronavirus expected to be enormous. It’s almost inevitable the bank will expand stimulus again in April if the pandemic leads to massive job losses. Given the poor risk sentiment over the past couple of weeks heading into the weekend we could see a pullback towards 63.50 – buyers of JY should consider the current price around 65.00.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 64.79
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 61.82- 65.82

A small window of “risk off” Monday saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) push higher to 63.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Central bank stimulus has been the number one ticket in town with multiple central banks making announcements daily to increase cash stimulus to economies in corona virus affected countries across the globe. The Bank of Japan has offered to buy 800 Billion in 3 -10 year bonds on top of other scheduled bond buying. Price should bunce off the 50-day moving average today and continue its path lower. We have data publishing this week- not that markets are taking any notice at the moment.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 63.70
Resistance: 65.00
Support: 61.70
Last Weeks range: 59.52-65.22

Central bank stimulus has been the number one ticket in town with multiple central banks making announcements daily to increase new stimulus to economies and the corona virus affected increase across the globe. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair for the first time in many many years broke through 60.00 reaching 59.50 before recovering on news NZ has closed its borders to everyone except permanent residents or citizens. Price sprung back to 64.80 levels would you believe settling around 64.00 in the past few hours. As risk sentiment weighs further on the kiwi we will see levels again in the 50’s pretty soon.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 63.67
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 59.48- 65.68

The New Zealand Dollar is trading just below the weekly open at 64.45 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after an action packed start to the week. The RBNZ dropped the cash rate 0.75% to 0.25% and the Bank of Japan rolled out their own measures to combat the effects of coronavirus. They said they would assist companies to obtain additional lending and double stock purchases. Risks are still slanted to the downside in the pair with coronavirus risk weighing heavy. It doesn’t feel right to say this after massive falls recently but at 64.40 buyers should consider.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 64.40
Resistance: 68.00
Support: 63.30
Last Weeks Range: 63.07-66.61

We saw a little relief for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Wednesday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as risks improved with the kiwi improving to 66.60. With attention on coronavirus and the WHO declaring it a pandemic yesterday as well as President Trump declaring a travel ban on Europe markets turned “risk off ‘’ again into Thursday. Prices dropped sharply mid-afternoon to 64.70 where it currency sits. Bank of Japan’s Kuroda reassured markets that the central bank wouldn’t hesitate to take the necessary measures when due. The problem being the bank may struggle to deal with virus stimulus, with the bank unable to bolster the economy in recent years with monetary policy and achieve their 2.0% inflation target. We see no end in sight and the freefall continuing for while yet in wave selling of NZD.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 64.30
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 62.08- 66.57

As markets kicked off the trading week yesterday we knew things would be different. For weeks now markets have been treading water not entirely sure how to react. Yesterday’s massive sell off in equities and Crude Oil (a separate issue) was enough for investors to flee to the safe haven assets amid the market “flash crash”. With the major equity indices worldwide posting steep losses traders bought the Japanese Yen (JPY). The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dropped to 61.50 levels super quick before returning to normality around 65.00 this morning. The kiwi is still under enormous pressure and could drop again in another wave of volatility spook selling.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 65.23
Resistance: 67.10
Support: 63.45
Last Weeks Range: 61.21-68.05

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains in demand this week against most of the major currencies including the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price turning at 67.80 and continuing its bearish momentum to just under 67.00 levels Friday. Boosted by the downturn in risk sentiment caused by increases in coronavirus cases around the globe. The Bank of Japan was said to be considering downgrading its economic assessment in March due to the ongoing impact of the virus with Kuroda saying he will continue to monitor markets and act if needed. We expect the NZD to drift lower as the week closes and target the 66.30 level from last August.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 67.15
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 66.61- 68.04

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke through psychological support at 70.00 Tuesday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to post a fresh low of 69.16. Risk sentiment has taken the kiwi lower as coronavirus continues to weigh on markets. Thursday’s price action lifted the kiwi back to 69.70 but we suspect this is only a short breather with equities all down on the day. Softer NZ business confidence put the NZD under further strain Thursday with price looking to retest the low today as things deteriorate in the coronavirus war.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.08
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.92- 70.67

Price action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair has seen the pair drop back to the bottom of the band to 70.15. Coronavirus is again the centre of attention and media headlines with more confirmed cases affecting markets especially as reports circulate of six deaths and 229 new cases in Italy. The pair hasn’t closed below 70.03 in 2020 but with risk market products all taking losses we could see a break below 70.00 over the coming days, we think it’s just a matter of time. Japanese data this week is limited to the Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales with NZ ANZ Business Confidence later in the week. If you are a Yen buyer locking in anything post 70.00 is golden.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level:70.28
Resistance: 71.30
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 70.07-71.18

The New Zealand Dropped to the bottom of the recent band at 70.05 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) but recovered midweek to the 71.10 area amid poor Japanese data prints. Machinery Orders were a large miss and GDP for the fourth quarter fell short shrinking by 1.6% and annualised 6.3%. This is the largest fall since 2014 sparking talk of a possible recession looming. Next week’s NZ Retail Sales and Business confidence comes into focus with the Japanese employment rate late in the week. The top of the four week range is 71.40 levels, we expect the kiwi to give back gains over the coming days.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.95
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.08- 71.17

Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) has flatlined over the past 4 days hovering around 70.70 levels. This represents the mid point of the recent three week band between a high of 71.30 and the low at 69.98, also the yearly low. Last week’s RBNZ meeting saw the central bank leave rates unchanged at 1.0% saying there would be no further cuts this year sending the kiwi higher. Fourth Quarter Japanese GDP disappointed yesterday coming in at -1.6% from the -1.0% we were expecting with the economy shrinking a considerable annualised 6.3% in 2019. We may see a return to the top of the band I mentioned at 71.30 this week on a lack of tier one data if coronavirus doesn’t shift markets to “risk off”.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 70.66
Resistance: 72.25
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 70.00-71.34

Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen pair returned to last week’s high of 71.31 from the early week low of 70.01 but ran out of puff returning to 70.70 Friday. The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 1.0% saying there would be no further cuts this year in the statement. Inflation is close to the target 2.0% and unemployment at maximum levels
A change in stance from an expected dovish bias to a neutral tone was all the kiwi needed to push higher. We have nothing on the calendar next week, risk markets will be the main driver such as events unfolding with coronavirus.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.64
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.99- 71.33

Price action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair will continue to be impacted by new information in the coronavirus global risk front. The kiwi has come off the 11 month low to trade back at 70.25- above pivotal 70.00 support, but as fears of containment of the virus hit the media we could see the kiwi go lower. This week’s NZ employment data is our focus with unemployment expected to stay at 4.2%.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 70.12
Resistance: 72.00
Support: 69.80
Last Weeks Range: 69.95-71.50

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen away sharply this week to 70.50 into Friday extending last week’s losses against the safe haven Japanese Yen (JPY). Coronavirus has dominated headlines with risk related products such as the kiwi being sold off in preference for safer assets. With no tier one data to publish this week direction has been purely risk related. Support is identified at 70.00 should the kiwi drop further, certainly if global risks associated with the virus escalate, we could easily see further NZD weakness. Next week’s NZ employment data Wednesday will eventually come into focus.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.68
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.39- 71.84

Risk markets have affected the Japanese Yen (JPY) currency across the board as the safe haven JPY is preferred buyers get back into Yen. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sank off the Monday open from 72.40 to 71.55 off the bat then failed to regain Friday’s momentum dropping further into Tuesday to a fresh early December 2019 low of 71.25. Japanese Consumer Confidence and later Unemployment rate are the key releases. The kiwi is looking very heavy as currencies digest the outcome from coronavirus- near term support is 70.30

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 71.24
Resistance: 73.35
Support: 70.00
Last Weeks Range: 71.21-72.88

The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged on Tuesday and painted a brighter economic outlook. The central bank maintained its interest rate and growth targets, lifting the GDP forecast for the first time in over 12 months. The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovered last week’s losses to 72.10 against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as markets became nervous around the outbreak of coronavirus after the World Health Organisation were holding an emergency meeting to discuss measures. The virus will have a massive impact on markets until its confirmed as contained or good news starts to flow through media. NZ CPI for the fourth quarter 2019 published this morning at 0.5% based on 0.4% expected showing rises to rental costs and airfares sending the cross to 74.50

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 72.46
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 71.91- 72.96

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted lower Monday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 72.60 but recouped losses into Tuesday back to 72.85. This week’s excitement lies with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate announcement and policy statement, the first central bank meeting for 2020. The BoJ are likely to maintain their recent policy as global risks subside. The long-term trend looks to support a retest of the yearly high of 73.50 but this week’s NZ quarterly CPI will be key. Expectations are for a rise in CPI by 0.4% following a rise of 0.7% in the third quarter 2019. Anything above 04% should support the kiwi.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 72.75
Resistance: 73.50
Support: 72.60
Last Weeks Range: 72.36-73.33

Risk improved Thursday as the Phase one trade deal between China and the US was officially signed taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher off 72.30 to 73.30 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) early Friday. Bank of Japan’s governor Kuroda spoke yesterday highlighting his positive outlook for the Japan economy in 2020, but said he would not hesitate to ease monetary measures if required. “Japan’s economy is likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend”. Price trades just shy of the 9 month high of 73.52. Next week’s BoJ monetary policy statement is the focus with NZ quarterly CPI printing Friday.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 73.07
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 72.34- 73.33

2019 price points…open 72.45, close 73.15, high 76.78, low 66.28.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered well from the midweek dip to 71.25 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) bouncing higher to close at 72.65 before continuing through to 72.90 Tuesday. NZIER Business Confidence showed an improvement in business confidence in the last quarter of 2019 with less surveyed people expecting a worsening economy in 2020. Price was marginally higher post release with the pair eying the December high of 73.50. Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Kuroda speaks tomorrow and could cause volatility

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 72.91
Resistance: 73.50
Support: 72.60
Last Weeks Range: 71.25-72.98

After reaching a high of 72.66 last Friday, a 5 month high, the NZD has pulled back on this cross to 71.88, as the risk-averse tone took affect. Overnight news of a “hard” Brexit potentially back on the table spooked markets. The pair has been on a broad uptrend since the beginning of October and any return of a risk-on tone should see return to upward momentum to the 73.10/20 level over the next few weeks.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 71.85
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 71.90- 72.43

The NZD was higher on this cross as the “risk-on” tone took effect and the safe haven Yen lost some of its lustre. Overnight this cross traded up to the highest level in nearly 5 months with the NZD/JPY at 72.38, it is still holding over the 72.30 level and should hold around current levels heading into next week, with a successful US/China trade deal announcement leading to further NZD consolidation and potential to build on recent gains towards 72.85.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 72.30
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.86- 72.66

With risk sentiment reasonably positive this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has outperformed the Japanese Yen (JPY) climbing to a fresh four month high of 71.40. 2019 started around mid 74.00 in the pair and reached a yearly low of 66.28 late August. Since then, the kiwi has bounced back well, and may even reach the yearly open before 2020 if risk allows (phase one trade deal) and key quarterly GDP prints well in the coming weeks.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 71.12
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.26- 71.42

Risk markets improved Monday, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelling higher to 71.05 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) before easing back to 70.90 into Tuesday. Positive Chinese Manufacturing data early Monday and Trump’s tweet suggesting he wants the Fed to lower rates further to devalue the US Dollar took investors out of the Yen. The kiwi is trading in thin air after finally breaching resistance at 70.00, prospects of a phase one trade deal between the US and China will be pivotal to achieving the 72.50 resistance level of late July.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 70.86
Resistance: 72.00
Support: 70.50
Last Weeks Range: 69.81-71.09

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke out of its recent range against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 70.40 Friday to post an early August fresh high. The upper band at 70.00, that has held for months, was breached on better than expected NZ data. Retail Sales came in higher than estimates and ANZ Business Confidence was stronger with the headline figure rising 16 points with a net 26% of surveyed saying they expect business conditions to deteriorate over the coming year. Risk factors may play a part in the coming days after President Trump officially supported HK protesters which could have flow on effects in the trade negotiations between the two countries. We expect price to reverse back below 70.00 in effect.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.26
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.63- 70.34

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) endeavoured to break the topside resistance at 70.00 Monday against the Japanese Yen (JPY) but ran out of puff around 69.95 backtracking to mid-69’s Tuesday. Every time we see the kiwi fail to break through the 70.00 upper band this strengthens this area further. Talk that the US and China have agreed a general phase one deal have yet to filter through into currencies, if the news becomes real we should see the kiwi go much higher on risk sentiment. ANZ Business Confidence prints Thursday.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 69.90
Resistance: 70.00
Support: 68.80
Last Weeks Range: 69.24-70.00

With nothing on the calendar this week for the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair trading has been very choppy. The cross is still operating in a four week range between around 69.00 and 70.00 with it currently 10 points lower than the weekly open Friday at 69.50. Japanese Trade Balance missed the mark printing lower than expected at -0.03T compared to 0.26T, representing a deficit instead of a surplus. Trade war tensions are said to be blamed for the sharp turnaround in Japanese exports. We need to see a break above 70.00 to see further kiwi dominance but this looks a bridge too far, perhaps next week’s ANZ Business Confidence and Retail Sales bring buyers back.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.55
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 69.22- 69.93

With nothing on the calendar this week for the Japanese Yen (JPY), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair any movement will be based on offshore headlines. The cross is still operating in a four week range between around 69.00 and 70.00 with it slightly lower than the weekly open currently at 69.52 Tuesday. Sitting right around the 100 and 50 day moving average on the daily chart suggests we have stalled with the pair awaiting its next cue for direction.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 69.50
Resistance: 70.00
Support: 69.00
Last Weeks Range: 68.88-69.90

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to post a new weekly high of 69.90 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the RBNZ cash rate announcement. Governor Orr left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0% surprising markets after a cut was generally expected. He didn’t see the need cutting further based on aggressively cutting 50 points in August and with inflation expectations reasonably in line with expectations. Risk sentiment came under pressure Thursday feeling the stress from renewed uncertainty surrounding the US- China trade outlook taking the kiwi back to trade around the weekly open at 69.00 levels. This represents the bottom of a three week band of support, a drop below 68.80 could see further selling of NZD on risk deterioration.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.16
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.87- 69.89

Price on the weekly open bounced higher retracing some of last week’s losses to 69.45 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The four week low in the current range band remains intact for now with the RBNZ announcement the focus this week. Expectations are around 70% of a cut to the 1.0% rate tomorrow when the RBNZ meet. We think as a reflection of recent data we will see a 25 basis point cut to 0.75% and the NZD shift lower. Price above 70.00 looks unlikely.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 69.38
Resistance: 70.00
Support: 69.00
Last Weeks Range: 68.97-69.99

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) suffered this week on the back of poor jobs data falling to 69.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Friday morning though has seen a recovery with risk fears dissipating the NZD has pushed back towards 69.60. With the NZ unemployment rate jumping to 4.2% from 3.9% this shows a significant rise, the chances of the RBNZ cutting rates next week has not been priced into this cross. We expect the kiwi to retest recent support at 68.95 in the coming hours/days. The 50 day moving average at 68.40 looks to be a target.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.55
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.97- 70.02

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retested last week’s high of 69.95 Thursday as risk conditions improved but failed to extend higher. The Japanese Yen (JPY) regained the edge taking price back to 69.15 into Friday after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) refrained from speaking on any policy changes. The central bank kept their short term rate at -0.10% and the long term 10 year government bond yield target at zero. The bank expects short and long term interest rates to stay at the current low levels for some time yet. We expect price to drift lower through to Wednesday’s NZ employment release.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.20
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.94- 69.88

Last week’s risk mood continued through currencies after the open in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross extending to 69.65 early Tuesday. Early news from Japanese Trade figures showed a continuing decline in exports with -0.17T publishing undermining the Yen as it back peddled. A thin economic card this week should see offshore geopolitical risk factors come into play. 70.40 is the near term target this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 69.65
Resistance: 70.40
Support: 69.30
Last Weeks Range: 67.84-69.66

After a slump to 67.90 midweek the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has surged to a fresh four-week high Friday to 70.00. Boosted by a change in risk sentiment and improved quarterly inflation figures. CPI printed at 0.7% up from the 0.6% we were expecting. The Bank of Japan’s Kuroda spoke of inflation moving around the 0.5% mark and the BoJ would continue to expand its monetary base until inflation exceeds the 2.0% target. The news had little impact on price. Looking ahead to next week we have Japanese and NZ Trade Balance publishing.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.10
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 67.84- 69.12

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came off its Friday high of 68.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) Monday as risk sentiment shifted negative. As the US China trade deal “phase one” optimism faded over a lack of proper substance the kiwi dropped back to 68.00 early Tuesday. With risk markets looking increasingly vulnerable at a time when central banks are easing policy as well, we see further downside developing in this cross. This week’s focus will be on quarterly NZ CPI which is expected to print at 0.6% growth for the third quarter. Buyers of JPY should consider levels above 68.00

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 68.23
Resistance: 69.00
Support: 68.00
Last Weeks Range: 67.21-68.98

Better performance by the NZD on this cross overnight as the increase in risk appetite saw the JPY lose appeal…currently trading around 68.16 after making the high of the week overnight at 68.28. A push towards 68.80 is possible over the day if the US/China trade news remains positive…Higher levels should be seen as NZD selling opportunities as we remain sceptical that the trade war will abate anytime soon.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 68.22
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 67.12- 68.34

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dipped to a four week low Wednesday of 66.90 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Overall Business confidence has taken a hit after two reports showed the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Business improvements in growth over the coming 12 months looks shaky, overall most surveyed were not looking at hiring additional staff. The Bank of Japan’s Wakatabe was on the wires saying the Bank of Japan have policy options and don’t want to continue with low and negative rates over the long term. The cross remains well below the 100 day moving average highlighting the ongoing bearish theme in the pair.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 67.40
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 66.92- 67.95

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair immediately tracked lower off the weekly open to 67.40 after NZ ANZ Business confidence printed lower. Overall Business confidence has taken a hit after the report showed the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Business improvements in growth over the coming 12 months look rather pessimistic with overall most surveyed were not looking at hiring additional staff. NZ Institute of Economic Research todays showed further weakness in business opinion with most expecting economic conditions to worsen over the coming months. With no additional data on the calendar this week the kiwi should continue to ease and retest the long term low of 66.50
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 67.63
Resistance: 68.00
Support:67.50
Last Weeks Range: 67.39 68.26

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) pair has been choppy this week mainly due to risk shifts in general sentiment. The cross briefly eyed last week’s low of 67.20 before spiking higher reaching 68.18 before falling back again. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. The result was priced into expectations after the RBNZ surprised markets at their & August outing by cutting 50 points. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. With the kiwi trading perilously close to the multi-year low of 66.25 it won’t take much of a shift in risk sentiment to retest this crucial level with downside bias remaining.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 67.80
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 67.20- 68.18

With risk improving Monday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) improved off the weekly close of 67.25 back to 67.65 against the Japanese Yen (JPY). News from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce suggesting they had downplayed the significance of cancelling the US farm visits took equity markets and risk flows higher. Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement holds market focus this week with no expectation of a cut by Orr just yet based on the aggressive 50 point cut in August. Timing of the next cut will be key with at least a further cut priced in towards the end of the year. Downside bias remains for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 67.69
Resistance:68.50
Support: 67.20
Last Weeks Range: 67.21-68.78

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left their cash rate unchanged at -0.10% Thursday and called for further analysis of their monetary policy in the October meeting choosing to sit tight for now. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to trade lower over the week even with a supportive GDP, sliding to 68.00. Figures showed for the June quarter Gross Domestic Product rose 0.5% a little less than the 0.6% for the March quarter but slightly higher than the 0.4% expected. It wasn’t enough to rally the kiwi surprisingly with investors choosing to sell the NZD based on a wider picture outlook. From here there’s a strong likelihood of retesting the early September low of 67.00
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 67.85
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 67.84- 68.95

The New Zealand Dollar was hammered off Monday’s open, trading down to 68.50 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as risk sentiment was hit hard off the back of events in Saudi Arabia. An oil field was drone bombed over the weekend, affecting the supply of crude to the market sending the crude price to 62.50 per barrel. Buyers bought the JPY and will continue to bid the currency higher until normality is restored. Worse than expected Chinese data hasn’t helped the mood either contributing to the risk off tone. NZ GDP q/q prints Thursday on the docket followed by the Bank of Japan cash rate and monetary policy statement. Has price turned lower off the recent high of 69.70?, A break below 68.00 will confirm further downside.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 68.60
Resistance: 69.30
Support: 66.75
Last Weeks Range: 68.44-69.68

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been well supported this week continuing its bullish run from last week against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in a healthy risk appetite market. Price rose to 69.65 before falling slightly to 69.25 Friday extending higher off the 100 day moving average we spoke of last week. Attention now falls to next week’s NZ GDP q/q as well as the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting. The big story this week has been the deferral of tariffs on Chinese products by two weeks after China waived tariffs on 16 US products. Buyers of JPY are not out of the weeds just yet as we still see the bearish tone continuing- on the current spike over 69.00 this does represent good buying levels compared to last week’s 66.60 low.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 69.29
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 68.50- 69.67

Risk appetite advanced into Monday with a healthy boost in US equities and risk associated products. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drove higher to 68.68 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) from the midweek low of 66.65 as it eyes a retest of 70.00, extending higher off the 100 day moving average we spoke about week. Monday’s Japanese pool of data published poor with Bank Lending and the Current Account printing below expectations. NZ Business Manufacturing index is Friday. We see no hint of any change in sentiment for the moment which lends price to possibly go higher this week in this cross.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.08
Resistance: 70.40
Support: 68.50
Last Weeks Range: 66.66-69.12

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has recovered off the weekly open of 66.70 on improved risk mood against the Japanese Yen (JPY) based mainly off events unfolding in Hong Kong. Equity markets all posted over 1% gains Thursday after Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam withdraw the Anti- Extradition bill. On the chart the 100 days moving average is now below the current price for the first time since late July indicating further topside momentum may continue – as long as risk sentiment allows. Next week we only have the Performance of Manufacturing Index on the local calendar. If need a close above 68.40 to confirm the bullish direction.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 68.23
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 66.65- 68.37

With risk sentiment affecting the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) performance over the past several weeks against the Japanese Yen (JPY) it’s hard to see any NZD relief in sight. Monday’s action has the NZD holding up around the 67.00 area. This week we have no tier one data to publish which would suggest the pair will be pushed around by offshore headlines. If another risk off tone develops, more than likely based around Trump’s trade negotiations, we could see much further falls eventuate for the kiwi. Just above the multi-year low of 66.30 now a break lower here would almost certainly seal a wider picture downward bias.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 66.86
Resistance: 68.50
Support: 66.30
Last Weeks Range: 66.72-67.93

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) looks to be well capped below 68.00 levels against the Japanese Yen (JPY) with six weeks’ straight of declines with the cross trading at 67.20 Friday. Trump’s trade war rages forward. Tuesday saw a recovery by the kiwi off 66.30 levels trading back to 67.95, a weekly high, after Chinese reports suggested they would like to meet US officials and re-open trade talks. Poor ANZ Business confidence figures showed optimism fell to -52.3 from the predicted -44.3 down 8 points with businesses expecting conditions to worsen over the coming year, the lowest since 2008. Any rallies in the cross should be met with stiff resistance but represent buying opportunities as the kiwi continues its downward bias.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 66.95
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 66.32- 67.92

Another wave of risk market sensitivity sent the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 66.30 Monday to extend recent declines. Trump’s trade war rages on sending mixed signals to markets as investors try to work out when will it end. Tuesday the kiwi reversed losses trading back to 67.75 after Chinese reports suggested they would like to meet US officials and re-open trade talks. Looking ahead we only have ANZ Business confidence on the calendar this week. Overall further uncertainties will continue to taunt market sentiment thus keeping the kiwi well offered for a while yet. Clients looking to convert JPY to NZD should consider trading at current levels, being close to the best levels since 2012.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 67.61
Resistance: 70.40
Support: 66.25
Last Weeks Range: 66.32-68.50

It was something of a quiet week for this pair up until yesterday when a bout of New Zealand dollar weakness drove the pair back down toward recent lows trading at 67.70. There was no particular driver for the weakness in the NZD and with the recent cycle lows close by at 67.55, the pair may find some near term support. Clients looking to convert JPY to NZD should consider trading at the current rate, being close to the best levels since 2012.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 67.80
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 67.70 – 68.51

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Japanese Yen (JPY) cross remains flatlined trading around the 68.30 area Tuesday. One gets the feeling that if markets turn risk averse this week the kiwi could sniff 67.50 the prior low. Certainly the Tanken Japanese results were not the best way to start the week for the Yen, focus is now with NZ Retail Sales to gauge further direction.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 68.32
Resistance: 68.90
Support: 67.60
Last Weeks Range: 67.55-69.16

With risk sentiment improving Tuesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) caught a break with investors exiting Japanese Yen (JPY) positions the kiwi rose back to 69.15. This wasn’t before some earlier pain with the cross falling to 67.55 – last week’s low and a multiyear level. With very little on the calendar this week we await next week’s NZ Retail Sales to offer further direction. Certainly if markets remain risk averse towards the end of August we could see fresh lows develop.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 68.23
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 67.55- 69.15

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) resisted heavy downside momentum last week in small doses but ultimately succumbed to risk averse markets as it looks extremely heavy against the preferred safer Japanese Yen (JPY) investment. Trading around 67.85 Tuesday the kiwi has drifted lower from Monday’s open and unfortunately for JPY buyers looks poised to break lower past last week’s 67.50 to fresh multi year lows. The Calendar this week looks very thin, the pair should receive movement cues from offshore developments, especially the ongoing trade escalation of the US/China trade war

Current Level: 67.98
Resistance: 69.70
Support: 67.50
Last Weeks Range: 67.57-70.07

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was hit hard In Friday’s trading sessions as risk averse investors got back into the Japanese Yen (JPY). Price fell to 68.60 Monday continuing last week’s sell off as President Trump took the trade war up a notch by adding 10% tariffs to an additional 300B worth of Chinese Products starting 1 September. He has also accused the Chinese of currency manipulation on the Yuan to offset the cost of trade tariffs. China has said they are not ruling out placing their own tariffs on American agricultural products or pausing buying altogether. Slipping under the June 2016 level this week of 69.00 has increased chances of further downside developing – in fact unless we see positive headlines around trade talks the cross could go much lower. In news just released the NZ unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in the June quarter down from market expectations of 4.2% in the March quarter. With the fall in the unemployment rate this has reflected in 9,000 people being added to the NZ workforce bringing the total number of unemployed to 109,000 in NZ. Price jumped to 69.30 where it currently trades.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 69.78
Resistance: 73.00
Support: 68.90
Last Weeks Range: 68.65-72.22

Overnight the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended recent declines against the Japanese Yen (JPY) dropping to 70.30 with price sitting extremely close to long term support of 70.25. We don’t think this support level will hold with the next support at 69.10 this being the January 2016 low. Earlier in the week the the Bank of Japan committed to keeping rates extremely low for some time saying they would take additional measures if the circumstances warranted it. Overnight risk sentiment also took a hit with Trump announcing he would instigate fresh tariffs of 10% on a further $300B worth of Chinese products from September 1st. This shook markets as investors reached back into the JPY safe haven.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 70.34
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 70.27- 71.85

Early Monday Japanese Retail Sales printed at 0.5% based on predictions of 0.2% pushing the Japanese Yen (JPY) to 71.89 but the cross has since reversed to 72.12 as markets await the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement today. The Bank of Japan are committed to keeping rates extremely low for some time but they will be closely watching the Federal Reserve decision later in the week before making any wild adjustment of their own. A small group of analysts predict the BoJ will bring in new easing policy.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 72.17
Resistance: 73.20
Support: 71.80
Last Weeks Range: 71.89-73.01

The recovery in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the Japanese Yen (JPY) hit a snag this week coming off an 11 week high of 73.24 to retrace lower to 72.35. However the chart still suggests the recent bullish NZD is still in play as long as price doesn’t drift below key support of 72.00 in the coming days. Certainly a consolidation period over the past few hours around 72.35 suggests a setup which may continue topside. NZ Trade Balance printed better than predicted at 365M based on predictions of 100M based on higher log exports but the news failed to spark any NZD jump higher. Next week is a big week for the Yen with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate announcement and policy statement Tuesday. We expect the recent high to be retested.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 72.26
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 72.24- 73.24

The recovery in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) vs the Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued unabated this week, with the pair trading to a 73.24 overnight. That’s the highest level since early May and at this stage there is nothing to suggest the rally is done. Trend support currently comes in at 72.68 and while the market holds above that level, the focus remains on the topside. Any break below 72.68 however would bring the rally into question and may well be the precursor to a much bigger correction lower. In the meantime, the next topside target is resistance around 74.20. It’s a light economic calendar from both countries this week so developments in the wider market, and swings in broader risk sentiment, may prove to be the bigger influence

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 72.76
Resistance: 74.20
Support: 72.68
Last Weeks range: 72.39-73.24

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has outperformed the Japanese Yen (JPY) this week, retesting the June high around 72.93. While that level has so far capped the pair, the uptrend is still well entrenched and only a move below trend support around 72.50 would bring that into question. Currently trading around 72.80, that June high is only spitting distance away and we look for it to come under increasing pressure in the near term. Clients looking to convert NZD to JPY should remain patient as there are no sings the rally is done yet.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 72.75
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 72.06 – 72.91

The New Zealand dollar has made some further gains against the Japanese Yen this week and is now threatening a key resistance area around 72.65. A break above that level may well open the way for a much broader rally toward 74.50. Solid Chinese activity data helped the NZD yesterday and with this morning’s release of NZ inflation now out of the way, coming in on expectations at 0.6%, there may be little to hold the pair back. For now, the risks remain skewed toward the topside.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 72.54
Resistance:72.65
Support: 70.50
Last Weeks Range: 71.53-72.64

Although the New Zealand dollar has made some mild gains against the Japanese Yen in recent days, to currently trade just off the weeks high at 72.28, the pair is still well contained with the broader range we have seen over the past three weeks or so. Aside from a couple of short-lived spikes, the NZDJPY cross has been ranging between the broad parameters of 71.70 to 72.70 since the latter part of June. NZ inflation data next week may provide some impetus but with little set for release from Japan, if that data doesn’t spark a move we could be in for another week of this increasingly familiar range.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDJPY 72.30
The interbank range this week has been: NZDJPY 71.53 – 72.32

We have seen choppy trading for the NZDJPY pair over the past week, with little overall direction. Price action has been contained between the broad parameters of 71.70 and 72.50, and for the time being that looks set to continue. There is little from NZ this week to get excited about, while from Japan most of the release are second tier. Look for further ranging as the market waits for something to provide some much needed direction.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 72.03
Resistance: 72.50
Support: 71.70
Last Weeks Range: 71.69-72.43