NZD to EUR

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD breached 0.6000 (1.6660) during overnight trading against the Euro (EUR) after surging yesterday post the RBNZ cash rate announcement. Trading around 0.5940 (1.6840) at the 2pm NZT announcement the kiwi extended gains as the central bank came out hawkish. Raising rates for the 3rd consecutive time from 0.75% to 1.0% as widely predicted, signalling it would be increasing the pace of its policy tightening. Interest rates are predicted to be at 2.2% at the end of this year and 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Event risk with tensions playing out on the Ukraine/Russia border could bring the kiwi back down to earth. Buyers of EUR should consider current levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5984 (1.6711)
Resistance: 0.6040 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5796-0.5921 (1.6887-1.7253)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) to 1.6920 into Friday trading, in the face of solid Eurozone data highlighted by Industrial Production. Risk tone has been calm based on the Ukraine/Russian border situation allowing equity markets to click higher and allowing the NZD to hold up well. However the kiwi is very much still at the mercy of geopolitical tensions with recent reports that Russian troops are preparing an attack in the coming days possibly using chemical weapons. Next week’s RBNZ official cash rate Wednesday should reflect a 0.25% rise in the interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0% giving more attractiveness to the kiwi.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5888 EURNZD 1.6983
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5828- 0.5911 EURNZD 1.6917- 1.7157

The Euro (EUR) continues to lose ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price extending off Monday’s open to 0.5865 (1.7050) this morning. Although risk off market conditions are evident with the threat of Russia and Ukraine political tensions, the kiwi has been well supported. ECB Lagarde downplayed recent talk of hawkish economic expectations by saying if the central bank acted too fast the recovery could be wobbly. It’s only a matter of time before the central bank gives up its transitory view of inflation, which is expected to peak in the first/second quarter of 2022. Looking ahead we have German Economic sentiment tonight of note. Geopolitical tensions should cap topside moves this week in the kiwi.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5847 (1.7102)
Resistance: 0.5875 (1.7330)
Support: 0.5770 (1.7020)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5765-0.5875 (1.7071-1.7344)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clawed back losses as the week got underway reversing off 0.5765 (1.7350) the yearly low to 0.5830 (1.7160) Wednesday as risk improved, and Euro buyers were jumbled post last week’s ECB meet. The economic calendar is thin this week, RBNZ Inflation expectations the only highlight with predictions inflation will click higher which in turn could continue to put upside pressures on the NZD over the rest of the week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5820 (1.7182)
Resistance: 0.5880 (1.7350)
Support: 0.5765 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5761-0.5902 (1.6941-1.7357)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke lower overnight to 0.5820 (1.7180) a fresh 14-month low against the Euro (EUR) after the ECB policy announcement rallied the currency. The ECB left policy in place as well as their -0.5% rates and said they would continue with debt buying through into the second half of this year. With Inflation rising in January to 5.1% this is mounting pressure for the ECB to hike sooner than later with expectations of inflation predicted to rise more. Lagarde’s statement post ECB highlighted the outlook remained in the balance. Markets are still cautious with risk products such as the NZD even though the RBNZ and NZD remain hawkish. NZ Unemployment ticked lower Wednesday from 3.4% to 3.2% with investors reacting favourably for a while with the pair testing 0.5900 (1.6940). Looking ahead we have NZ Inflation expectations q/q Wednesday. Sellers of EUR should consider these historic levels.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5827 EURNZD 1.7164
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5821- 0.5902 EURNZD 1.6941- 1.7179

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be capped into rallies in 2022 trading. Starting the year out at 0.6020 (1.6615) the Euro has gained to 0.5920 (1.6900) early this morning off the back of heavy risk off sentiment. Tensions are rising in Russia-Ukraine crisis which have assisted to the risk mood of late as the US readies 8,500 troops in the event NATO activates its ‘response force”. German Manufacturing surprised to the upside in January halting a 56 month series of deterioration. Expectations are for a deterioration of 4th quarter performance but the country should avoid a technical recession. Tomorrow’s NZD CPI q/q is forecast to be 1.3% taking the y/y number to possibly as high as 5.7%. With omicron now in the community in NZ we can expect massive supply chain worries to continue with staff shortages and many needing to self-isolate at home. The EUR is predicted to remain in charge at least through into next week, expect the pair to fall possibly to 0.5850 (1.7100) levels.

Current Level: 0.5915 (1.6906)
Resistance: 0.5965 (1.7100)
Support: 0.5850 (1.6770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5914-0.6004 (1.6655-1.6908)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR0 cross started the year at 0.5880 (1.7000) and will most likely close out somewhere in the 0.6000 (1.6670) area with the kiwi outplaying the EUR in 2021 but not by much. The rundown from 0.6215 (1.6090) recently has had the cross consolidated somewhat around 0.5970 (1.6750) areas post the massive risk off theme and NZD underperformance. Last week’s ECB read was seen by investors as being behind the curve in light of fresh covid cases throughout Europe, this together with fresh “risk’ on sentiment as equities recover recent losses has the kiwi back in favour. A push through to 0.6035 (1.6570) would be a good achievement- the 3 week high.

After the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost a lot of its value 3 weeks back to 0.5970 (1.6750) it has consolidated and hovered around the 0.6000 (1.6600) zone ever since. NZ quarterly growth ending September came in better than predicted at -3.7% instead of -4.1% sending the NZD to 0.5965 (1.6760). With Delta arriving and massive lockdowns in Auckland together with travel restrictions and shipping delays it’s no surprise the figure was so poor. It’s also highly unlikely we will see a similar report at the December quarter release with the economy back performing close to post lockdown levels. NZ officially has the new covid strain omicron which arrived onshore yesterday, this person is in isolation. It’s only a matter of time before it runs through the population and puts hospitals under pressure- will we see more lockdowns is the question?. This morning’s European Central Bank meeting pushed up the EUR to 1.6680 (0.5995) when they said a phasing out of the emergency bond buying program was likely. They will end the EUR 1.85T in March next year, while normal purchases will slow to 40B in April from the current 80B. They will keep their key interest rate until the end of bond buying. Signals suggest we should see topside action develop in the cross as momentum develops and interest rates rise to possibly 2.0% by end of next year.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5996 EURNZD 1.6677
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5966- 0.6043 EURNZD 1.6548- 1.6760

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) settled around the 0.5980 (1.6720) zone Tuesday morning, after the kiwi suffered heavy losses over the past two weeks coming from 0.6215 (1.6090). A combination of factors are causing the “risk off” tone of late, omicron, a poor Non-Farm Payroll release Friday and a less than friendly Fed outlook. We may see attempts of pull backs this week by the kiwi as we view the currency as a tad oversold over recent sessions. German Factory Orders weighed on the EUR coming in at -6.9% vs -0.2% and Eurozone economic sentiment may do the same tonight when it releases. We expect the cross to bounce higher off the 200 day moving average.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5980 (1.6722)
Resistance: 0.6030 (1.6890)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5963-0.6068 (1.6479-1.6770)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has managed to hold its ground so so against the Euro (EUR) this week following on from the heavy losses incurred last week around 0.6020 (1.6600) levels. We did however see a dip under 0.60 the figure to 0.5990 (1.6690) briefly but the NZD fought back. This week’s Eurozone Inflation reads in Spain, Germany and Italy were all higher than predicted, giving weight to the prospects of the ECB hiking their benchmark rate sooner than expected with acceleration recently of energy prices, manufacturing goods and services and food. Next week’s economic calendar in the cross is thin which suggests market risk factors will play a larger part in direction.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6028 EURNZD 1.6589
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5992- 0.6070 EURNZD 1.6476- 1.6688

Global worries of the new covid variant Omicron mixed with a US Holiday saw markets reeling, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and risk currencies dropping back further as equity markets plunged. The Euro (EUR) sat pretty and grew another leg of support as investors reacted by selling the kiwi. The cross dropped back to 0.6015 (1.6620) at the end of the week, a 14 October low. Monday’s open saw a small recovery in the NZD at 0.6070 (1.6480) but into Tuesday trading price was back around 0.6035 (1.6570) It’s a thin calendar of data this week for the cross with just Lagarde speaking Friday. The NZD may get support from the 100 day MA at 0.6020 (1.6610) this week.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6041 (1.6553)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6020-0.6223 (1.6067-1.6606)

Big reversal moves in the Euro (EUR) this week has taken price from the August 2017 high back to the 6 week low of 0.6105 (1.6380) in one foul swoop. The main cause weirdly enough was due to a less than hawkish RBNZ stance. The RBNZ raised rates by 0.25% to 0.75% Wednesday as was mostly predicted but was it? We were surprised to see the NZD taper away post release almost as if markets were disappointed to not see a 0.50% rise. The less aggressive move perhaps seen as less hawkish putting pressure on the kiwi. The RBNZ however did raise its cash rate projection to peak at 2.6% in the fourth quarter 2023 compared to 2.1% in early 2024. With Covid on the rise and Brexit issues we don’t expect the Euro to sustain its recent climb.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6098 EURNZD 1.6398
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6098- 0.6222 EURNZD 1.6070- 1.6397

The Euro (EUR) continued to underperform leading into the close, the cross reaching 0.6225 (1.6060) levels, a fresh August 2017 high. Mostly off the back of negative sentiment leading into Tuesday the pair fell back to 0.6190 (1.6150) as markets await key RBNZ policy announcement tomorrow. Markets are anticipating a 0.25% rise to the 0.50% interest rate, with a small chance of a 50 point rise. Recent price shifts over the last few days have reflected hike projections and could outperform the EUR again this week. Lagarde made a comment that she thought rate hike chances in 2022 were slim and the ECB shouldn’t be rushing into tightening monetary policy. The Eurozone again is the centre of the covid pandemic with the Netherlands and Germany poised to take on stricter restrictions- the German health minister even bold enough to say- most compatriots would be “vaccinated, cured or dead” by the end of winter. We expect the kiwi to post a new fresh high by week’s end.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6180 (1.6181)
Resistance: 0.6230 (1.6320)
Support: 0.6130 (1.6060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6147-0.6225 (1.6064-1.6267)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) , Euro (EUR) sat mostly within its 5 week trading range over the last few days making a short trip to 0.6225 (1.6060) early today but back around the 0.6185 (1.6170) zone mid-morning. 0.6225 marking the highest level in the cross since September 2017. It’s thought the EUR may outperform its peers in December as the month tends to be positive for the Euro with financial institutions squaring up balance sheets and banks capital adequacy checks are carried out. The ECB was on the wires earlier in the week warning of potential bubbles in property and financial markets in its bi-annual stability report. Looking ahead we have Eurozone Manufacturing Tuesday ahead of the key RBNZ monetary statement.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6192 EURNZD 1.6149
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6146- 0.6240 EURNZD 1.6025- 1.6269

The Euro (EUR) retreated in Friday trading, failing to push higher as we thought it might. Closing the week at 1.6250 (0.6155) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and extending declines Monday to 1.6100 (0.6210) – bouncing off recent support. It’s a thin calendar of events this week with just NZ quarterly inflation expectations. The Euro is lagging other central banks in raising interest rates as the market starts to price in monetary policy tightening outside the eurozone. Worries about rising energy prices and covid cases are causing punters to think about selling the EUR. This being said, we are expecting a decent reversal taking place over the coming weeks and a possible retest of the 0.6807 (1.4690) zone from August 2016.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6191 (1.6152)
Resistance: 0.6215 (1.6340)
Support: 0.6120 (1.6090)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6115-0.6201 (1.6125-1.6353)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came under pressure this week based on a poor NZ Business Confidence read and broad based US Dollar demand. On the flipside, German economic sentiment rose in November, the first time since May. Friday prices in the pair trade around 0.6130 (1.6320), just edging past four week support. Indicators on the charts are signalling further rises for the EUR to meet the 200 moving average at 0.6090 (1.6430)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6128 EURNZD 1.6318
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6115- 0.6201 EURNZD 1.6125- 1.6353

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has outperformed most crosses off Monday’s open, against the Euro the currency was boosted by further highs in equity prices with the kiwi recovering most of last week’s losses to 0.6205 (1.6120) and looks poised to possibly break long term daily resistance at 0.6205 (1.6115). The kiwi should continue to be backed by risk sentiment and expectations of November 24th rate hikes. ECB’s Lagarde speaks Wednesday at the ECB forum which could bring volatility to the cross.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6177 (1.6189)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6540)
Support: 0.6045 (1.6110)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6126-0.6217 (1.6083-1.6322)

Three weeks of declines in the Euro (EUR) vs the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ended with the Euro reversing last week’s losses from 0.6210 (1.6100) trading back to 0.6150 (1.6260) into Friday sessions. NZ employment data surprised to the upside with the Unemployment Rate printing at 3.4% way lower than the 3.9% we were expecting. The kiwi bounced to 0.6180 (1.6175) as markets scratched their heads over how such a read was possible given a large chunk of the population have been in lockdown for most of the last quarter. However the EUR regained momentum and looks robust as it moves above the 100 day moving average. Looking ahead we have Eurozone Economic Sentiment.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6146 EURNZD 1.6270
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6128- 0.6219 EURNZD 1.6079- 1.6318

Despite daily covid cases reaching a new high yesterday of 162 in NZ, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has remained strong of late against the Euro (EUR) mainly off the back of strong risk markets. Friday’s ECB policy meeting sent the EUR packing its bags to new lows with the biggest daily decline in months sending the cross to 0.6210 (1.6100) at the close of the week. The ECB will slowly taper back its PEPP bond buying program over the following months compared to early in the year as output exceeds pre pandemic levels. However inflation is predicted to take longer to fall than previously thought, Lagarde saying ‘foresee inflation rising further in the near term”. The Euro has managed to pull back some of last week’s losses with the cross trading at 0.6190 (1.6150) into Tuesday sessions.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6192 (0.6149)
Resistance: 0.6300 (1.6650)
Support: 0.6010 (1.5875)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6136-0.6207 (1.6110-1.6295)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) beavered away this week to reach 0.6200 (1.6130) against the Euro (EUR) a week of mostly consolidation after four weeks of action from 0.5910 (1.6920). The cross did however post a record July 2017 high when it posted 0.6200 before easing back to 0.6165 (1.6220) post the ECB meeting. The ECB maintained its loose monetary policy saying they would continue as planned well into the oncoming economic recovery. The ECB still holds the view that inflation is impermanent with limited risks of higher inflation, the central bank will hold its negative interest rate for at least another year. We see further upside for the kiwi when daily covid cases start to contract.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6148 EURNZD 1.6265
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6135- 0.6200 EURNZD 1.6128- 1.6298

The continued rise of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) post bumper CPI earlier this week sent the kiwi to 0.6190 (1.6160) agst the Euro (EUR) the highest level since 2017. The NZD broadly supported by talk to further rate hikes- sharper and quicker than early predicted has the NZD extremely popular. Risk on flow has also had a knock on effect with equities trading at just off record highs. Markets are now pricing in a 50 point hike at the RBNZ meeting which should boost the NZD further in coming weeks. Profit taking and risk appetite soured Thursday based on news out of China shifting the cross back to 0.6150 (1.6270) Friday. Anyone waiting on buying EUR should be looking at current levels.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6169 (1.6210)
Resistance:0.6305 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 1.5860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6097-0.6187 (1.6161-1.6449)

The continued rise of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) post bumper CPI earlier this week sent the kiwi to 0.6190 (1.6160) agst the Euro (EUR) the highest level since 2017. The NZD broadly supported by talk to further rate hikes- sharper and quicker than early predicted has the NZD extremely popular. Risk on flow has also had a knock on effect with equities trading at just off record highs. Markets are now pricing in a 50 point hike at the RBNZ meeting which should boost the NZD further in coming weeks. Profit taking and risk appetite soured Thursday based on news out of China shifting the cross back to 0.6150 (1.6270) Friday. Anyone waiting on buying EUR should be looking at current levels.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6156 EURNZD 1.6244
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6081- 0.6188 EURNZD 1.6158- 1.6444

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied hard into the close of play Friday against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6105 (1.6380). The kiwi found renewed buying interest through 0.6025 (1.6600) levels as risk conditions prevailed. Early week trading in the cross has seen a drop back to 0.6080 (1.6440) before recovering in early Tuesday back to 0.6105 (1.6380) Yesterday’s NZ third quarter inflation data published much higher than the 1.5% expected at 2.25 raising the y/y figure to a hefty 4.9%. This should raise eyebrows at the RBNZ to consider raising interest rates sooner. Later in the week we have Eurozone Manufacturing data with German and French data publishing. The yearly high at 0.6130 (1.6315) is super close and could be hit this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6101 (1.6390)
Resistance: 0.6130 (0.7150)
Support: 0.5830 (1.6310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5978-0.6100 (1.6390-1.6727)

The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross hovered around the 0.6000 (1.6650) region for most of the week through Thursday. With risk conditions improving and greenback weakness the kiwi soared to 0.6070 (1.6480) into early Friday sessions. Data out of the Eurozone has not been EUR supportive of late, the German Economic Sentiment Index dropping 4.2 points- the fifth month in a row the indicator has fallen. Covid in NZ of late has been weighing down the kiwi but with a spike of over 1.5% in overnight equity indices all has been forgotten. Next week’s key standout is NZ CPI q/q which is predicted to rise by 1.3% in the September quarter. Barring a catastrophe the cross should post the highest weekly close since February 2019. Over 0.6000 is fantastic buying of EUR.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6063 EURNZD 1.6493
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5978- 0.6070 EURNZD 1.6474- 1.6727

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) targeted the top of the recent range at 0.6015 (1.6620) Monday against the Euro (EUR) off the 0.5990 (1.6700) open but failed to hold it dropping lower slightly to 0.6010 (1.6650) into Tuesday sessions. Downside pressures remain on the EUR with word of the ECB pushing back on the idea of tightening last week. The ECB along with the BoJ are at the back chain with regards to a change in direction which could keep the EUR offered for a while. The cross has been pivoting around the 0.60 zone since the beginning of September, perhaps this time we could see a push through the weekly resistance at 0.6030 (1.6580) with a break well into the 60’s. Nothing of note on the economic docket this week may however keep the cross around these levels.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6004 (1.6655)
Resistance: 0.6020 (1.6780)
Support: 0.5960 (1.6620)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5955-0.6020 (1.6610-1.6790)

Eurozone Retail Sales came in light at 0.3% for the month of August after 0.7% was expected. This however was seen as positive as the sector bounced back from July’s poor contraction of -2.3% advancing the Euro (EUR) higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.6020 (1.6620). Despite positive risk mood Thursday punters preferred EUR buying most likely in the wake of the NZ Govt ditching its covid elimination plan. Earlier the RBNZ hiked rates to 0.50% as expected in a hawkish read but the statement strangely failed to move the kiwi. Looking ahead, we have German economic sentiment Index Tuesday which could drag on the Euro if the result is unfavourable as expected. The uptick in covid cases locally could continue to weigh on the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5999 EURNZD 1.6669
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5956- 0.6020 EURNZD 1.6610- 1.6788

It’s been a shifty start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross with price coming from the open at 0.5980 (1.6715) and travelling to 0.6015 (1.6625) and back into early Tuesday trading. The EUR was helped out marginally Friday by Eurozone CPI which printed its highest reading since 2008. Inflation increased by 3.4% y/y in the September quarter up from 3.0% in August mainly caused by a spike in energy prices which rose 17% from a year ago. This week’s Economic docket sees the key RBNZ announcement with governor Orr expected to lift the cash rate to 0.50% from 0.25%. This is the first time the central bank has raised the interest rate since July 24th 2014. With risk mood low we could see the kiwi falter towards 0.5975 (1.6740) over the week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5985 (1.6708)
Resistance: 0.6040 (1.6880)
Support: 0.5925 (1.6550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5912-0.6006 (1.6648-1.6913)

The Euro (EUR) made moves all the way to 0.5920 (1.6900) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) midweek before a hard reversal Thursday saw the kiwi recover to 0.5975 (1.6740) in early Friday. The kiwi faces pressures from speculation that the RBNZ may not hike rates by 50 points at next week’s policy meeting. Assistant governor Hawkesby’s comments suggested a more restrained approach saying hikes will be made in 25 point jumps. Eurozone unemployment remains stable at 7.5%, down slightly from 7.5% in July and 8.6% in August 2020. The 5 month high at 0.6045 (1.6540) is a little way off but if we get sustained “risk on” and a hawkish read from the RBNZ who knows.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5960 EURNZD 1.6778
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5912- 0.6006 EURNZD 1.6649- 1.6913

A rather dim start to the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair has seen little movement take place with activity based around the 0.5990 (1.6700) zone. The German federal election will see a change in government with the Social Democrats (SPD) claiming victory. Early results have given SPD leader Scholz a narrow victory over the conservative party bringing an end to the post-war domination of the two big parties. Outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel will stick around for a while until a new coalition government is formed. No economic data out this week in the cross could keep movement restricted to recent ranges. Resistance is seen around the 0.6000 (1.6650) area, the 100 day MA.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5994 (1.6683)
Resistance: 0.6040 (1.6850)
Support: 0.5935 (1.6550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5967-0.6041 (1.6554-1.6758)

Risk off conditions flowed through into Thursday in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with price reaching 0.5965 (1.6760) a three week low. French and German Manufacturing sentiment both fell in September due to widespread supply constraints and disruptions to manufacturers. While the sector has lost momentum it does come after recent strong numbers suggesting expansionary times are still ongoing. A retest of the March 2021 high at 0.6070 (1.6480) is close, certainly next week’s German Election could spark volatility.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6023 EURNZD 1.6603
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5965- 0.6041 EURNZD 1.6553- 1.6763

Prices continued to move lower off recent highs in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair to 0.5990 (1.6700) Tuesday as markets contemplate risk-off. A continuation of Friday’s “risk off’ tone pushed the kiwi lower from 0.6050 (1.6530) as US equity indices were smashed over 2.5% to start the week. Lagarde helped the Euro after saying “recovery in the eurozone is faster than anticipated six months ago mostly due to a rapid vaccination campaign”. This week’s economic data in the cross is restricted to German and French Services PMI and Manufacturing reports with small contractions expected. With the cross now under the 100 day moving average we could see more declines this week especially if the Fed continues to ignore inflationary pressures at the FOMC meeting Thursday.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5975 (0.6260)
Resistance: 0.6045 (1.6800)
Support: 0.5950 (1.6540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5976-0.6046 (1.6540-1.6730)

Not a lot of movement in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen price flounder around the 1.6600 mark. Most of the moves around NZ GDP were largely priced in it seemed. NZ GDP ending June quarter 2021 rose by 2.8% above forecast of 1.1% underpinned by government spending, record low interest rates and rising house prices. Forecasters are predicting a contraction in the third quarter based on Coronavirus setbacks with Auckland being largely closed down due to lockdown restrictions. However the RBNZ is still predicted to raise the cash rate by 0.25% in October to combat the rising growth. Lagarde delivered her speech titled “moving forward overnight” saying “recovery in the eurozone is faster than anticipated six months ago mostly due to a rapid vaccination campaign”. The comments helped the Euro nudge to 0.6015 (1.6630) early Friday.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6009 EURNZD 1.6641
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5993- 0.6046 EURNZD 1.6539- 1.6685

It’s been a dreary start to the trading week with the Euro (EUR) still feeling the effects of last week’s dovish policy read. Broad based greenback demand Monday saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) perk up early to 0.6040 (1.6550) but movement has been limited. Extending recent gains late in the week the kiwi reached an 18 March high but it’s all about consolidation ahead of NZ second-quarter GDP which prints Thursday. Economic activity rose 1.6% in the March quarter following 1.0% in the December quarter and is predicted to reflect record growth to the end of June. However this will no doubt be the calm before the storm with businesses in Auckland struggling with lockdowns predicted to take off 7% as third-quarter GDP. We expect a quiet week in the cross.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6026 (1.6594)
Resistance: 0.6050 (1.6800)
Support: 0.5950 (1.6530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5985-0.6049 (1.6533-1.6709)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded into Friday around the 0.6025 (1.6600) level after briefly reaching 0.5990 (1.6700) midweek against the Euro (EUR). Both currencies jointly led the way in losses against other major currencies underperforming across the board. The European Central Bank (ECB) will keep their monetary policy loose for the time being amid a resurgence of covid 19 cases not only in the Eurozone but globally as the US and China experience slowdowns. They would however scale back their massive bond buying program to reflect a brighter outlook with the ECB diverging with the Fed to start tapering back QE in the fourth quarter of this year. The emergency PEPP program however has already started to be trimmed back with ECB covid relief buying likely to continue with 60-70B EUR per month Lagarde has confirmed. Looking ahead to next week we have key NZ second quarter GDP the focus. The cross should stay around the 0.6000 (1.6660) level into the close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6009 EURNZD 1.6641
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5986- 0.6035 EURNZD 1.6569- 1.6703

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) progressed to 0.6030 (1.6590) into the weekly close against the Euro (EUR), the kiwi outperforming based on positive risk sentiment. US Equities were hotter than a fire hydrant chasing a dog, posting new highs and improving the kiwi off the back. Eurozone Retail Sales came in soft falling in July by -2.3%. On the economic docket this week is ECB policy statement and rate announcements with predictions the central bank will start to rein in its QE policy with inflation at its highest point in a decade jumping to 3% in August. The kiwi climbed outside its 0.6015 (1.6630) range comfort zone Friday and is making attempts back in- towards 0.6010 (1.6640) early Tuesday.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6011 (1.6636)
Resistance: 0.6160 (1.6810)
Support: 0.5950 (1.6230)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5956-0.6036 (1.6571-1.6790)

Risk mood continued to push the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to new highs over the week against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6000 (1.6670) early Friday, a 3 week high. The run over the past two weeks has been substantial, however the cross still tracks well within long term ranges. We would need to see the kiwi climb through 0.6017 (1.6620) to suggest a break out of that range. German Manufacturing sank to a 6 month low in August as manufacturers hustled to keep pace with demand stemming from supply chain issues. This comes as optimism of growth prospects over the following year waned. Eurozone Unemployment published at 7.6% bang on expectations and slightly down from 7.8% in June and the high from last November of 8.4%. Looking ahead we have the ECB statement and rate announcement Thursday.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 1.6708 EURNZD 0.5985
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5924- 0.5999 EURNZD 1.6668- 1.6879

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) closed the week well against the Euro (EUR) stretching gains to 0.5950 (1.6810) at the close as risk conditions were buoyant throughout the week. With Geopolitical tensions in the rear view mirror and surges in equity markets the kiwi had one of its best weeks in 2021. The Fed’s Powell confirmed he wasn’t in any hurry to start tapering any time soon putting a dovish twang on outlook but reiterating for investors that current conditions would remain favourable. The only key standout this week on the calendar is German Manufacturing PMI for August. We still maintain the cross is a touch overbought with expectations that we may see price drift back towards 0.5900 (1.6960) over the week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5938 (1.6840)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5861-0.5952 (1.6802-1.7062)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued to make advancements on the Euro (EUR) during the week as risk mood remained solid off the back of global anxiety receding. Equity indices traded higher to just off all-time highs sending the NZD to 0.5935 (1.6850) during Thursday sessions. The Euro was well supported early Friday as the selling of the US Dollar stopped and the run in stocks turned negative shifting price to 0.5910 (1.6930). Looking ahead we have a thin economic calendar leading into the close with just German Manufacturing printing next week. We suspect the kiwi may be a little overbought and suggest a retest back to 0.5880 (1.7000)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5911 EURNZD 1.6917
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5833- 0.5934 EURNZD 1.6850- 1.7141

After travelling from the 0.5880 (1.7000) area a fortnight ago to 0.5970 (1.6750) at the start of the week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was travelling along nicely at early May levels, this was all about to end. Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate release surprised markets by leaving it unchanged at 0.25% at the record low. Just hours earlier the first known case of coronavirus in the community was reported throwing NZ into lockdown level 4 on Tuesday night. Prior to the restrictions markets had anticipated a 0.25% increase as the first of a series, which never took place. The news dunked the kiwi to 0.5830 (1.7150) through Thursday trading and into a fresh 2021 low. Overall the RBNZ was hawkish in their statement with two hikes planned by the end of the year starting in October. Soft Eurozone construction output weakened the EUR early Friday with price back around the 0.5850 (1.7090) area.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5839 EURNZD 1.7126
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5828- 0.5975 EURNZD 1.6735- 1.7158

The Euro (EUR) extended Friday moves to the topside against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 1.6800 (0.5955) as geopolitical and Chinese data weighs heavily on market sentiment. Retail sales and Industrial Production printed less impressively but most of all, markets are worried about the Taliban control in Afghanistan with US troops withdrawing from the region. The only significant economic data of note this week in the cross is the RBNZ rate announcement and Policy Statement releasing tomorrow. It’s widely predicted we will see a hike of 0.25% points to 0.50% but a small chance we could see Governor Orr hike 0.50% to 0.75%. Both outcomes should bring about buying of the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5955 (1.6792)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7080)
Support: 0.5855 (1.6660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5939-0.6009 (1.6641-1.6839)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains through the middle of the week against the Euro (EUR) to 0.60010 (1.6650) breaking through the physiological barrier of 0.6000 but couldn’t hold this level, reversing back to 0.5965 (1.6760) early into Friday. The latest NZ Inflation expectations survey highlighted respondents expect inflation to be at 2.27% in two years’ time with the one year at 3.02%. Currently it sits at 3.3% y/y spiking from 1.5% in the second quarter. This result is significant with the RBNZ meeting next week and could have the central bank thinking they need to hike 50 points instead of the predicted 25 or 0.25%. In recent hours US PPI printed higher than predicted strengthening the US Dollar and taking most crosses lower, this in turn helped to weaken the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5968 EURNZD 1.6756
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5938- 0.6009 EURNZD 1.6640- 1.6838

Softer Eurozone data weakened the Euro last week with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bouncing back to 0.5980 (1.6720) levels from 0.5865 (1.7050) before closing around 0.5965 (1.6770). A poor read in the German Industrial Production put the Euro on the backfoot but the impact of a massive print in the New Zealand jobs data with Unemployment publishing at 4.0% down from 4.7% sent the kiwi on a proper run higher. The cross is still trading within normal long term ranges with very little on the calendar this week with just NZ inflation expectations q/q to weigh up. Next week’s RBNZ policy statement and rate announcement should keep the NZD bid and in the mood to retest the 0.6025 (1.6600) level over the coming days.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5950 (1.6806)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.7050)
Support: 0.5865 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5741-0.6018 (1.6618-1.7120)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was under pressure early in the week against the Euro (EUR) struggling around the week’s low of 0.5863 on Monday. But as we approached Wednesday’s NZ employment data the NZD gradually recovered as the market was forecasting a decent result. In the end the actual unemployment rate came in significantly better than anyone anticipated at 4.0 and the impact on the NZD was profound. It immediately jumped higher and it has remained strong since then, currently trading just below the weeks high which was set at 0.5976 in the past 12 hours. We expect the pair to test the key 0.6000 area in the coming week.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5960 EURNZD 1.6779
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5863 – 0.5975 EURNZD 1.6737 – 1.7055

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to devalue against the Euro (EUR) with price reaching 0.5860 (1.7060) Monday. Friday’s weaker than expected German prelim GDP for the second quarter supported the kiwi for a while after it published at 1.5% down on the 2.0% predicted, with the German economy recovering mainly due to household and government spending. A stark contrast from the first quarter’s -1.7%. Looking ahead we have NZ employment figures tomorrow with predictions that the Unemployment Rate will click lower from the current 4.7%. We expect the kiwi to be well supported this week as it looks to make a bounce from the bottom of the recent range.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5883 (1.6998)
Resistance: 0.5940 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6840)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5833-0.5920 (1.6892-1.7055)

Six weeks from the last seven the Euro (EUR) has struggled to advance past the 1.7060 (0.5860) area having bounced off this zone again midweek. Eurozone data was disappointing Wednesday and ECB’s De Cos talked about the Central Bank keeping some of the bond buying flexibility post the pandemic. Risk supported the kiwi into Friday to 0.5905 (1.6940) but largely speaking the pair is still trading well within 6-week ranges. Next week’s key standout is the NZ Employment figures with the unemployment rate predicted to remain stable at 4.7%
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5889 EURNZD 1.6980
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5860- 0.5935 EURNZD 1.6848- 1.7063

Recent choppy conditions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair took the cross to 0.5940 (1.6840) at the close of the week. The Euro overlooked the strongest read in 21 years when the Eurozone PMI composite index printed, instead overshadowed by mood sentiment supporting the kiwi. Prices into Tuesday are showing a little weakness in the kiwi as the cross trades just below the open at 0.5930 (1.6870). Economist El-Erian said there is a fundamental misunderstanding of inflation because very few people have lived through it. “I always laugh when people say, oh, it’s isolated, it’s transitory” he went on to say “there is logic in the inflation chains”. His comments caused overall dovishness in the EUR and could continue to weigh on the EUR this week. Looking ahead German prelim GDP q/q is Friday with predictions of a 2.0% gain in growth in the second quarter. Heavy resistance is seen around the 0.5965 area.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5924 (1.6880)
Resistance: 0.5965 (1.7050)
Support: 0.5865 (1.6770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5849-0.5939 (1.6837-1.7096)

It’s been a week of two halves for the New Zealand dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pairing. The first half of the week was dominated by negative risk sentiment that weighed on the NZD, driving the pair down to its 0.5849 low. But in recent days as US stock markets, and risk sentiment in general, improved the NZD regained composure and this helped drive the cross rate back above 0.5900. Last night we had the latest European Central Bank meeting to digest and their dovish tone saw the EUR come under selling pressure which helped to drive the cross to the week’s high of 0.5934. This back and forth price action is very reminiscent of what we have seen for the past 2-3 months and it’s looking very much like we can expect more of this range trading over the coming week. 0.5840 and 0.6020 are the key levels that have contained the pair since mid-May and at this stage there is no indication that either level is under threat.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5925 EURNZD 1.6878
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5849 – 0.5934 EURNZD 1.6853 – 1.7096

An extremely choppy New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross over the past few weeks continued Monday with price reversing off 0.5955 (1.6790) to reach 0.5860 (1.7060) overnight as risk flow supported the EUR. We should have seen the kiwi extending to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels post the hawkish RBNZ read and better than predicted NZ CPI release, instead the heavy risk off flow has dominated downside momentum. Looking ahead we have the ECB cash rate and policy statement Thursday with Lagarde already informing markets to expect a slightly different ECB guidance to simulus. German and French Manufacturing comes out Friday. Until then we expect a little overdue pushback from the NZD.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5865 (1.7050)
Resistance: 0.5970 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6760)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5863-0.5961 (1.6775-1.7055)

Another incredible week of volatility in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross has seen wild price swings. At one point the kiwi was reading around 0.5960 (1.6780) but overnight markets turned risk averse taking price back to 0.5910 (1.6930) close to the weekly opens at 0.5890 (1.6970). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged as predicted at 0.25% Wednesday but brought forward their stance on hikes – pricing in an increase possibly in the August meeting or November meeting. All of the 4 major banks have accordingly priced in a 0.25% price hike from next month as the RBNZ said they would end its bond buying purchases by July 23rd. Still the timing of such moves is still a mystery and will be determined largely by incoming inflation and unemployment over the next couple of weeks. To the extent NZ inflation printed much stronger than expected this morning at 1.5% q/q and 3.3% y/y. If the central bank raises soon as predicted this would mean they are a whole year quicker than the May 2021 forecast of third quarter 2022. ECB’s Schnabel said yesterday that the ECB would wait for core inflation to rise further before tightening policy but the target could well 2be reached much faster than earlier predicted. We expect the kiwi to take back profits over the coming days and retest the zone around 0.5990 (1.6700).
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5931 EURNZD 1.6860
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5863- 0.5962 EURNZD 1.6771- 1.7055

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is the weakest currency this week across the board, extending lower against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5860 (1.7060) as risk currencies were smashed as an uptick in the delta variant dampened mood. German economic sentiment printed earlier in the week softer than predicted with the index at 63.3 compared to 75.0, however this is not all bad with economic expectations for the next six months still remaining elevated. Looking into next week we have the RBNZ Cash Rate and monetary policy announcement with predictions the central bank will show its hand and start hiking interest rates from November.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5862 EURNZD 1.7059
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5852- 0.5990 EURNZD 1.6692- 1.7088

US Non-Farm Payroll is solely to blame for the boost late Friday in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) rise to 0.5925 (1.6880) from the midweek level of 0.5870 (1.7040). Markets reacted and sold the greenback after concluding that the data wasn’t quite good enough to warrant decent economic progress and start tapering their QE early. During the USD selloff the NZD outperformed the EUR. Monday’s action saw a small lift in the EUR to 1.6920 (0.5910) before falling back. We suspect the Euro will be well supported this week boosted by a 50 day moving average signal and long term channel bears. Lagarde talks at the end of the week with nothing of note to publish on the calendar.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5945 (1.6820)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5868-0.5052 (1.6794-1.7043)

The Euro (EUR) has outplayed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week with price reversing most of last week’s moves to 0.5880 (1.7000). Repricing of recent Federal Reserve expectations and taper talk is behind recent momentum. Flash CPI estimates y/y to June were released bang on expectations of 1.9%, likewise German Manufacturing also published on target at 65.1 for June showing a pick up in output with new growth accelerating for the first time in 3 months amid supply shortages. The EU is worried about the spread of the delta variant which evidence suggests could be up to 60% more transmissible. A number of European countries have introduced further restrictions with France reporting the delta variant comprises 20% of all new infections. The long-term bear trend on the chart looks to be firmly in place with further upside predicted in the EUR.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5875 EURNZD 1.7021
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5868- 0.5937 EURNZD 1.6842- 1.7041

Wednesday’s solid Eurozone PMI data has helped to prop up the Euro (EUR) for a while against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in a bull market this week. The Euro gained half a percent before running into stiff “risk” sentiment which supported the kiwi. Equity markets are back at record highs, the third straight day of rises, the NZD trading to 0.5925 (1.6880) from 0.5855 (1.7080) early Friday. German Manufacturing has gained more momentum in June with further easing of coronavirus restrictions and pent-up supply demand. Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in over 15 years also as demand outstripped supply with companies hiring additional staff to keep up with the backlog. The German Business Sentiment Index also improved in June to a two year high. Lower lows and lower highs is still the long term theme in the pair with price trading at the top of the bear channel. We expect further declines over the coming week especially with very little data publishing over the week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5903 (1.6940)
Resistance: 0.5940 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6830)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5868-0.5941 (1.6833-1.7043)

Wednesday’s solid Eurozone PMI data has helped to prop up the Euro (EUR) for a while against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in a bull market this week. The Euro gained half a percent before running into stiff “risk” sentiment which supported the kiwi. Equity markets are back at record highs- the third straight day of rises, the NZD trading to 0.5925 (1.6880) from 0.5855 (1.7080) early Friday. German Manufacturing has gained more momentum in June with further easing of coronavirus restrictions and pent-up supply demand. Eurozone business activity grew at its fastest pace in over 15 years also as demand outstripped supply with companies hiring additional staff to keep up with the backlog. The German Business Sentiment Index also improved in June to a two year high. Lower lows and lower highs is still the long term theme in the pair with price trading at the top of the bear channel. We expect further declines over the coming week especially with very little data publishing over the week.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5921 EURNZD 1.6889
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5851- 0.5927 EURNZD 1.6870- 1.7089

The Euro (EUR) has traded back to the yearly opening price of 0.5860 (1.7060) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on its way to bottom out at 0.5840 (1.7120) a fresh 2021 low. With the Fed recently indicating they would be hiking the cash rate twice in 2023 all movement has been pivoting around this surprise move. The ECB has been talking about more stimulus as the Delta virus variant is causing concerns. A shift into more “risk” buying in Monday’s sessions has improved the kiwi to 0.5875 (1.7025) as markets await French and German Manufacturing and Services data tomorrow. We can’t see the NZD improving much over the week with the Euro well supported on rises to 0.5900 (1.6950).

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5861 (1.7061)
Resistance: 0.5900 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6970)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5840-0.5920 (1.6890-1.7123)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground against the Euro (EUR) into the weekly close to 0.5890 (1.6980) topping off a poor week of performance and extending declines from the previous week. The ECB maintained its current pace of bond buying and held back their decision to start tapering to September. We expect lower bond buying by August with PEPP ending around March 2022. Three of the ECB policymakers were said to want to reduce PEPP immediately in the meeting, sighting upside risks to inflation. On the other side were a number of officials who appeared more dovish with ECB’s Holzmann saying the central bank would only need to review its policy if inflation rose above 3.0%, currently this is at 2.0% y/y so a little way to go. This week’s calendar is thin with only NZ quarterly GDP to print Thursday. Fourth quarter reports showed a contraction of -1.0%, first quarter 2021 should reflect around 0.5% growth. The Euro will be targeting the January daily low of 0.5780 (1.7030) this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5886 (1.6989)
Resistance: 0.5940 (1.7040)
Support: 0.5870 (1.6830)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5881-0.5934 (1.6853-1.7005)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its push higher in Monday trading reaching 0.5945 (1.6820) against the Euro (EUR) before giving back gains into Tuesday with price back around the open at 0.5910 (1.6920) zone. A fall in German factory orders was offset by investor confidence data, the EU economy is improving with more and more restrictions being lifted, confidence levels are good and should continue to boost the Euro. Coming up on the calendar is the ECB policy statement and rate announcement. Most expect the PEPP to remain unchanged in keeping with recent rhetoric – ECB’s Schnabel commenting that the removal of ECB support would be a “great mistake”. Price should be reasonably stable above 0.5880 (1.7000) this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5908 (1.6926)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7030)
Support: 0.5870 (1.6660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5879-0.5947 (1.6814-1.7009)

Early moves sideways in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair ended in late Thursday trading when the kiwi was sold off down to 0.5875 (1.7020). German and French Manufacturing continued their recent run of improving data, along with EU Unemployment publishing lower at 8.0% instead of the 8.1% markets were expecting, helping to pull investor interest back in the Euro. We are only a handful of points away from the yearly low at 0.5855 (1.7080). Looking ahead we have the ECB monetary policy statement and rate announcement which should include an optimistic outlook as the economy continues to improve. Levels in the early 0.60s’s look to be a long way in the rear-view mirror, buyers of EUR may want to look at getting something done around 0.5900
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5892 EURNZD 1.6972
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5879- 0.5960 EURNZD 1.6777- 1.7009

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted sideways against the Euro (EUR) off the weekly open trading around the 0.5950 (1.6800) level. Last week’s trip to 0.5995 (1.6680) proved the cross wasn’t quite ready to travel into the 0.60’s. We see risk lying to the downside as the ECB starts to speak of a “turning point” in the EU economy-the daily January 2021 level of 0.5900 (1.6950) could well be back on the hit list. German Manufacturing prints tonight for May with the ECB President Lagarde speaking later in the week.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5955 (1.6792)
Resistance: 0.6005 (1.700)
Support: 0.5880 (1.6650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5894-0.5993 (1.6686-1.6966)

With no tier one data on the economic docket this week the full focus was on the RBNZ policy announcement which surprisingly didn’t disappoint. Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross took off like a cat lapping chain lightning reaching 0.5980 (1.6720) over the release where it has camped for much of the last two days. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates unchanged at the record low of 0.25% and kept a limit of 100B for its govt bond buying purchase program. The central bank said they would likely hike rates as early as the third quarter of 2022 but this was highly conditional. The RBNZ sees the cash rate around 1.5% by the December quarter of 2023 and inflation at 1.7% ending March 2022 and 1.9% ending March 2023. The caveat being- meeting inflation and employment targets could take considerable time and patience. The kiwi eyes 0.6015 (1.6630) the two-month high.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5968 EURNZD 1.6756
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5873- 0.5993 EURNZD 1.6684- 1.7026

German manufacturing turned in a benign read Friday while French manufacturing figures reflected a rise in growth with output rising for the second straight month equaling the July 2020 period post the first coronavirus lockdown. The result helped the Euro (EUR) end the week near its highs around 0.5870 (1.7035). Monday markets turned risk on with equities posting gains, the cross turning higher to 0.5910 (1.6920) early Tuesday. German IFO Business Climate is the only point of interest on the exceptionally thin calendar this week with expectations of recent improvements across the sectors. Investor risk appetite should control movement this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5903 (1.6940)
Resistance: 0.5930 (1.7070)
Support: 0.5860 (1.6870)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5870-0.5965 (1.6762-1.7035)

Downside movement continued in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair over the past few days with price shifting to 0.5870 (1.7030) early Thursday, matching levels from January this year. Focus is firmly on the NZ budget today with no real expectations of wild currency swings based on past history. Later in the week German and French Manufacturing and Services data prints with expectations of better than expected reports which could in turn move the Euro higher. Meanwhile risk off mood continues with drops overnight in equities.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5885 EURNZD 1.6992
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5870- 0.5966 EURNZD 1.6760- 1.7035

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was slammed off the open against the Euro (EUR) giving back gains made late last week down to 0.5915 (1.6910). Overnight equity markets traded lower dampening risk mood before paring small losses recovering somewhat, this took price to 0.5940 (1.6830). This week’s NZ Budget is our focus along with German and French Manufacturing and Services data. Rapid vaccinations have allowed a few European countries to reopen and the European economy is starting to show signs of a proper recovery. The Manufacturing numbers are expected to show this with the index predicted to remain at elevated levels which would be good news for the Euro. Further downside movement is expected.
Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.5949 (1.6809)
Resistance: 0.6010 (1.6950)
Support: 0.5900 (1.6640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5913-0.5998 (1.6673-1.6912)

The Euro (EUR) bumped the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) through most of this week with price reaching 0.5910 (1.6915) as risk currencies broadly traded lower. The only data of note was Eurozone industrial production which printed poorly on Wednesday coming in at a meagre 0.1% m/m frm -1.2% m/m in February. Year on year industrial production was up almost 11% which is fantastic but with February’s report poor this has raised eyebrows as to the future performance in the months ahead. In the past few hours in the NY session risk commodities and equities have traded higher taking the kiwi to the 0.5950 (1.6815) zone. Recouping losses back to 0.6000 (1.6660) could be a bridge too far this week but we would expect a solid rebound as we expect the kiwi to regather momentum.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5940 EURNZD 1.6835
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5912- 0.6012 EURNZD 1.6633- 1.6912

NZ Inflation expectations for the following two years q/q came in higher at 2.05% instead of the 1.89% markets were expecting pushing the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher against the Euro (EUR) into the close to 0.5990 (1.6700). We have not seen a lot of action this week so far with price still trading around the same zone. The kiwi got a small boost Monday on risk sentiment reaching 0.6010 (1.6640) breaking past the pivotal 0.6000 level but has been unable to hold this as equity values closed lower pulling the cross down. No economic news of note this week should see current levels maintained.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5982 (1.6716)
Resistance: 0.6020 (1.6820)
Support: 0.5945 (1.6610)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5859-0.6126 (1.6325-1.7067)

A bumper NZ jobs read saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) move to 0.6015 (1.6630) against the Euro (EUR) Wednesday coming off the back of earlier losses from 0.5925 (1.6880). Into Friday it tetters around the 0.6000 key area as markets wait for NZ quarterly inflation data. NZ employment data printed at 0.6% q/q versus an expected 0.3% for the 3 months ending March increasing the number of people employed, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.9% to 4.7%, lower than the 4.9% forecast. The Euro extended declines on softer PMI data while ECB’s Lane possibly helped the selling by saying the ECB was committed to keeping their funding program conditions favourable. Thursday market the first time the cross has closed above key 0.6000 in 7 weeks- lets see it can hold it.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5991 EURNZD 1.6991
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5921- 0.6020 EURNZD 1.6609- 1.6887

The risk off market mood ending the week saw the Euro (EUR) outperform the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5950 (1.6800) levels, however with a turnaround in sentiment into early Tuesday the kiwi is back in charge at 0.5975 (1.6740) knocking on the door again at the key 0.6000 level. With news of the Greens overtaking Merkel in the latest German polls this has been a tad unsettling for the Euro. Tomorrow’s NZ Unemployment data for March is in focus with predictions of no change from February’s 4.9%. We think a retest of 0.6000 is on the cards this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5963 (1.6770)
Resistance: 0.6010 (1.6820)
Support: 0.5945 (1.6670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5859-0.6126 (1.6325-1.7067)

Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross continues this week, with price back around the bottom of this range at 0.5965 (1.6760). 0.5950 offers fairly solid support- the three week low and range support zone. German IFO Business Climate Monday weakened the EUR when the index published at 96.8 down from 97.8 expectations. Third wave coronavirus infections have meant supply chain issues for industry and have knocked back Germany’s economic recovery. A risk off tone was back Tuesday hindering the kiwi, sending it lower. With no economic data publishing in the pair this week price should remain cutting within recent ranges.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5956 (1.6789)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7000)
Support: 0.5885 (1.6650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5945-0.6000 (1.6668-1.6820)

It’s been a choppy week of action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair, the cross pivoting around the 0.5980 (1.6730) zone for much of the week. Wednesday’s NZ CPI advanced 0.8% from the prior quarters 0.5%. For the year ending March we had a pick up of 1.5% improving on forecasts of 1.4%. With risk off and equity markets falling this week the Euro improved slightly over the kiwi into Thursday sessions to 0.5945 (1.6820). Germany’s Constitutional Court gave the ok, approving the EU’s debt financed EUR 750B recovery fund and EU commission, Von der Leyen said the recovery in the EU was on track. The ECB gave out no surprises this morning at their policy meeting delivering an improving economic tone while remaining cautious. Lagarde stressed there was no plan to phase out purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. The release sent the Euro plummeting across the board and back to 0.5970 (1.6750) entering Friday.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5956 EURNZD 1.6789
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5948- 0.5998 EURNZD 1.6670- 1.6810

After an early rise to 0.5985 (1.6710) in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross the euro has regained momentum to 0.5965 (1.6770) as the euro tries to regain last week’s losses from 0.5890 (1.6970). On the calendar this week is tomorrow’s NZ CPI (quarterly) print which is predicted to come in at 0.8% for March after a gain of 0.5% in February. We also have a slew of French and German Manufacturing data to release for March which should reflect strong data exceeding economist expectations in line with business activity improving and a brighter outlook. Looking at the chart we see a “head and shoulder” pattern emerging with the double recent reversal off resistance at 0.6000 (1.6665) showing further bias to the downside is preferred this week for the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5971 (1.6747)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.6960)
Support: 0.5900 (1.6670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5888-0.5997 (1.6674-1.6984)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) got off to a slow start this week when poor Business Confidence took price to 0.5890 (1.6980) before climbing into its work Wednesday outperforming the Euro (EUR) and reversing all of last week’s losses back to 0.6000 (1.6690). A dovish RBNZ was replaced by a strong risk on mood after strong US Data pushed up equities and risk. The RBNZ left policy unchanged together with the Large Scale Asset Purchase program of up to $100B, and the Funding for Lending Programme. The OCR will remain at the record low of 0.25% for some time well into late 2022. Comments made by Adrian Orr confirming unemployment will need to be much lower and inflation above 2.0% will take considerable time. We have not seen the kiwi break higher than key resistance at 0.6000 in 3 weeks, with momentum flows we could see this happen before the weekend.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5988 EURNZD 1.6702
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5882- 0.6001 EURNZD 1.6663- 1.6983

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is lower into Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) falling off the pace and extending last week’s losses to 0.5905 (1.6940). European stocks took a dive overnight as coronavirus fears came back to haunt some European countries as further lockdowns hinder sentiment. Risk conditions should further support the Euro this week with elevated geopolitical worries heightened. Germany is preparing new legislation to allow the country to impose national restrictions without regional approval. Poland has been hit hard the last two days they have seen hospitals overrun with new infection records over 35,000. Tomorrow’s RBNZ should be fairly uneventful with policy staying the same as the February meeting.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5891 (1.6975)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7270)
Support: 0.5800 (1.6670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5889-0.5980 (1.6723-1.6980)

The Euro (EUR) made massive gains overnight across the board and bounced over 1% to 0.5940 (1.6840) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). News that over half of the European population would be vaccinated by June this year sent investors buying up the EUR. Around 100M vaccines have already been distributed at the end of March. Approximately 380M will be given the jab by the end of the second quarter which means by mid-July 270M EU citizens will be fully vaccinated- which equates to roughly 70% of the populations (EU) 380M. No tier 1 news on the economic docket this week in the pair would suggest direction could be a bob each way.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5948 EURNZD 1.6812
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5936- 0.6003 EURNZD 1.6656- 1.6844

With markets risk averse this week the Euro (EUR) staged a massive comeback against an underperforming New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross reaching 0.5885 (1.6990) and easing to 0.5900 (1.6940) into Friday Sessions. This Euro action marks the biggest weekly price shift in the pair since May 2020 after starting out the week circa 0.6025 (1.6600) French and German Manufacturing and Services PMI data showed improvements on last month’s results with Germany reporting much better expansion due to a record surge in manufacturing output. Third wave coronavirus fears through Europe have authorities on the back foot with many countries on the verge of extended lockdowns or new ones. With the cross at an eight week low we expect some push back from the kiwi in the coming days
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5907 EURNZD 1.6930
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5886- 0.6026 EURNZD 1.6594- 1.6988

Small improvements in the Euro Monday saw price creep lower to 0.6010 (1.6640) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to hover at a major support junction. No fewer than five times over the past fortnight the cross has tried to break lower through 0.6000 (1.6650) and failed, we expect this level to hold again for now. AstraZeneca is at the centre of vaccination issues in the EU after recent blood clot fears, the EU will likely reject authorisations to export vaccines to the UK until they fulfil their obligations first to the EU’s 27 nations. Conflicts post Brexit have been brewing between the EU and UK after AstraZeneca reneged on their delivery of shots it had promised in the first quarter. Both sides have blamed each other for export related and nationalistic views. On the economic data radar this week we only have eurozone manufacturing and services data upcoming. Any dips below key support at 0.6000 (1.6650) would indicate broader weakness for the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5959 (1.6781)
Resistance: 0.6055 (1.7040)
Support: 0.5870 (1.6520)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5972-0.6066 (1.6486-1.6746)

It’s been a choppy week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair with numerous failed attempts to break through 0.6070 (1.6470) the Euro has pushed back to 0.6020 (1.6630). NZ GDP published down on expectations of 0.2% at -1.0% and took the kiwi lower. Lagarde spoke early Friday sending a message that the current PEPP is working as bond yields continue to tick higher. The third wave of coronavirus is also causing concerns with the European vaccine rollout. For now the Euro should push higher as the safe haven is preferred.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6012 EURNZD 1.6633
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6008- 0.6066 EURNZD 1.6485- 1.6643

Monday’s improved risk mood took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 0.6010 (1.6640) against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6045 (1.6550) into early Tuesday. Last week’s ECB announcement surprised markets, with policymakers agreeing on the monthly PEPP purchase target of 1.855B until the end of 2022 at a significantly higher pace than the first half of the year. Lagarde made the comment that it’s possible inflation will hit 2% by the end of the year. The economic docket this week is limited to just NZ fourth quarter GDP which is expected to show 0.2% growth in the economy. This read could be significantly different coming off the back of 14% in the third quarter as reliable stats are compiled. We expect movement this week in the pair to remain in a sideways range.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6037 (1.6564)
Resistance: 0.6120 (1.6840)
Support: 0.5940 (1.6340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6000-0.6057 (1.6511-1.6667)

Demand for the Euro (EUR) was down into Friday sessions against the New Zealand Dollar with price travelling to 0.6055 (1.6520) led by risk-on and improvements in equity markets and US treasury yields pushing higher. This morning’s ECB announcement surprised us a little with policymakers agreeing on the monthly PEPP purchase target of 1.855B until the end of 2022 at a significantly higher pace than the first half of the year. The QE program will remain unchanged at 2.2T. Lagarde said the ECB will continue to monitor exchange rates and adjust all instruments as needed. The central bank’s headline inflation is likely to increase in the months to come. Post the ECB release the Euro recovered losses trading back at 0.6020 (1.6620) into early morning.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6029 EURNZD 1.6586
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5987- 0.6056 EURNZD 1.6510- 1.6701

Demand faltered for the Euro (EUR) late last week which saw the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regain the edge recovering to 0.6020 (1.6620) at the close. However, markets opened Monday in a different mood sending the kiwi back to 0.5990 (1.6700). Renewed US Dollar support stemming from Biden’s 1.9T support package being passed pushed sentiment back to “risk” and the kiwi to 0.6020 (1.6620) where it has spent most of the past few hours. The one key standout this week on the economic docket is The ECB monetary policy and rate announcements Friday. We don’t expect the pair to trade outside of its recent range.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6009 (1.6641)
Resistance: 0.6110 (1.6820)
Support: 0.5945 (1.6350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5968-0.6051 (1.6525-1.6755)

It’s been a steady week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross with most of the action pivoting around 0.6025 (1.6600) levels. Regional lockdowns across Europe may be on the fringe of being relaxed but there’s still much concern over coronavirus cases and particularly the new strains. This flow-on effect was shown this week in PMI results undermining optimism and a proper recovery. The ECB say they will maintain flexibility in the PEPP (pandemic emergency purchase programme) saying they have the tools available if needed to act. The ECB meets next week and will no doubt further discuss QE. Equities and general risk dropped early Friday on Fed speak which in turn spiked the EUR to 0.5995 (1.6680)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6025 EURNZD 1.6597
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5994- 0.6051 EURNZD 1.6524- 1.6681

Volatility in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair continued into Monday with the Euro coming off a bout of strength at 0.5990 (1.6700) to fall to 0.6050 (1.6530) with the kiwi recovering decent losses from last week. Earlier the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged at 0.25% maintaining its stimulatory policy program at 100B but with a less dovish review. We have a light economic docket this week with only governor Orr speaking on Thursday. Locally we see no real drivers, risk appetite should dominate the week’s movement in this cross with the NZD making moves towards 0.6100 (1.6400).
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6035 (1.6570)
Resistance: 0.6125 (1.6830)
Support: 0.5940 (1.6330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5986-0.6127 (1.6322-1.6707)

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rises continued into the second week from the 0.5840 (1.6840) low to reach 0.6130 (1.6320) against the Euro (EUR). With no Eurozone data of note this week it’s been all about the RBNZ. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has left rates unchanged at 0.25% maintaining its stimulatory policy program at 100B but with a less dovish review. The central bank must now include the impact of housing when making monetary decisions, but the main talking point was the narrative around no further rate cuts boosting the NZD. Clearly not what governor Orr wanted but, you can’t stop a moving train. Lower equity markets and a sharp rise in Bond Yields has taken the cross lower into Friday to 0.6060 (1.6500) with the Euro recovering most of the early losses.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6041 EURNZD 1.6553
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.6005- 0.6126 EURNZD 1.6323- 1.6653

As we speculated the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair climbed higher towards the end of the last week as NZD buyers pushed price to around 0.6025 at the close. This marks the highest level achieved for the kiwi since July 2019 and most importantly clearing the pivotal 0.6000 (1.6600) phycological zone. The NZD has managed to stay above this level into Tuesday to 0.6035 (1.6570) as investors continue to focus on Standard and Poor’s credit rating shift from AA to AA+ yesterday. The RBNZ monetary policy and rate announcement is tomorrow with an upbeat statement predicted. Before that NZ Retail Sales for the December quarter which should reflect a flat period and a result around 0.0%.
Exchange Rate
Current level: 0.6019 (1.6614)
Resistance: 0.6090 (1.7150)
Support: 0.5830 (1.6410)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5943-0.6047 (1.6537-1.6827)

Trade in this pair has been best described as uninspiring over the past week. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has traded between a low of 0.5935 and a high of 0.5983 against the Euro (EUR) since Monday. That’s not wildly different from that the range seen the previous week. The pair seems to be treading water waiting from something to dictate future direction. Key support is seen around 0.5930 and while above that level there is a slight bias toward further gains, and a potential test of the early Feb cycle high at 0.6011. Next week’s RBNZ monetary policy statement will be a key focus for the pair, while from Europe we have mostly second tier data that should dramatically impact the market.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5971 EURNZD 1.6748
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5935 – 0.5983 EURNZD 1.6715 – 1.6848

It’s been a week of consolidation for this pair after the NZDEUR failed on two attempts above the 0.6000 level the prior week. The cross rate currently trades at 0.5960 having tested longer term trend support around 0.5930 in the past couple of days. As long as this support remains intact, the broader bullish trend that’s been in place since October is still in play, but any sustained break below 0.5930 would suggest that long-term trend has run its course and further declines are likely. Just as we mentioned last week, keep and eye on the key levels of 0.5930 support and resistance at 0.6020. A break of either may well be the signal of future market direction.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5965 (1.6767)
Resistance: 0.6020 (1.6863)
Support: 0.5930 (1.6611)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5936-0.6006 (1.6650-1.6847)

Gains in the NZDEUR cross have stalled this week ahead of key resistance that comes in around 0.6020. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) made it to a high of 0.6011 against the Euro (EUR) late last week before running out of steam and correcting lower to 0.5960. Currently trading around the 0.5970 area, the pair looks like it will continue to struggle on attempts over 0.6000 in the short term. That being said, the longer-term trend is still favorable and it would take a break below 0.5930 to bring that long-term trend into question. So the key levels to watch over the coming week are support at 0.5930 and resistance at 0.6020. A break of either level could be a good signal of direction going forward.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5970 (1.6750)
Resistance: 0.6020 (1.6863)
Support: 0.5930 (1.6611)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5958-0.6011 (1.6637-1.6783)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades near the top of the recent range band from early in the year against the Euro (EUR) at 0.5950 (1.6800) levels. The Euro has been under a fair amount of pressure of late with a discouraging vaccine rollout, dovish ECB and soft German Retail Sales. Monday ECB’s Schabel warned that raising rates right now would have disastrous results. This morning’s NZ quarterly employment figure came in at 0.6%, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% from 5.6% giving the NZD reason to push through the yearly high of 0.5965 (1.6760) on its way to 0.5975 (1.6740)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5973 (1.6742)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7000)
Support: 0.5880 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5868-0.5985 (1.6708-1.7042)

The New Zealand dollar regained some lost ground on this cross overnight as the Eurozone area continues to struggle with the ongoing Covid epidemic- rumours of another lockdown for France and ructions around the amount of Covid vaccine available in Europe have seen the NZD/EUR strengthen from yesterday’s low around the 0.5866 level to 0.59258 overnight. German inflation data showing an annual jump of 1% for January was better than expected but it will not change the outlook for ECB policy. With this cross now around the 0.5912 mark, we expect the NZD to hold at current levels going into next week with a pushback over 0.5950 likely .
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5916 EURNZD 1.6903
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5867- 0.5959 EURNZD 1.6781- 1.7044

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair hovers just below the yearly high of 0.5945 (1.6820) at 0.5930 (1.6860) this morning after a solid push higher Monday by the kiwi from the close of 0.5900 (1.6950). The German IFO Business Climate Index missed estimates printing at 90.1 for January down from December’s 92.2 with worry that the result could also be worse in the February update as German lockdowns until mid-February pose threats to business productivity. The IFO institute’s Klaus Wohlrabe said the economy has started the 2021 year with little confidence. The second coronavirus wave has ended any recovery in the German economy. With no data of note this week local focus may be on the new community coronavirus case in NZ and how this is handled by authorities.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5926 (1.6874)
Resistance: 0.5950 (1.7280)
Support: 0.5790 (1.6800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5858 – 0.5947 (1.6815-1.7071)

Early week outperformance of the Euro (EUR) drove this cross to a low of 0.5858, but in recent days the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has made a comeback pushing the pair to within spitting distance of recent cycle highs of 0.5949. This morning’s release of stronger than forecast NZ inflation data, printing at 1.4% y/y, has only helped the pair solidify the kiwi’s gains and I wouldn’t be surprised to see fresh highs above 0.5950 in the coming days. During last night’s ECB press conference Legarde did her best to try and undermine the Euro by suggesting asset purchases will remain front and centre until well into 2022. She also said they are closely monitoring the EUR’s appreciation.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5930 EURNZD 1.6863
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5858 – 0.5947 EURNZD 1.6815 – 1.7071

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) closed out the 2020 year at 0.5895 (1.6970) levels, around the 10-month high. With a lack of data and thin market conditions over the past several weeks we have not seen a hell of a lot of movement as we expected. Momentum supported the kiwi to 0.5945 (1.6820) late last week before reversing back towards the yearly open. Softer Euro fundamentals this week have been behind risk sentiment and the wave of Euro buying. Tightening coronavirus restrictions and warnings from the ECB that economic impact is yet to fully flow through markets. This week’s ECB rate announcement and policy statement Friday is our focus with economic outlook risks tilted to the downside. NZ CPI for the 4th quarter Friday shouldn’t cause to much alarm expected to print around 0.2%.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5895 (1.6963)
Resistance: 0.5950 (1.7050)
Support: 0.5865 (1.6800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5880-0.5949 (1.6810-1.7007)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) failed to hold onto the 0.5800 (1.7240) level Friday against the Euro (EUR) as investors poured into the safe haven currency. As global markets plummeted despite the US government agreeing to a- close to 100T coronavirus stimulus package markets were more focused on a new coronavirus strain and large-scale shutdowns across the UK and Europe. Price reached 0.5765 (1.7345) early Friday before bouncing higher back to 0.5800 (1.7240) as worry eased. No data to speak of in the coming days – price shifts will be very dependent on global headlines and especially choppy between xmas and early January.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5789 (1.7274)
Resistance: 0.5730 (1.7857)
Support: 0.5600 (1.7452)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5801-0.5861 (1.7062-1.7238)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) failed to extend into the 0.59’s early in the week against the Euro (EUR) and again early Friday as price mostly bumped around 0.5830 (1.7150) levels. Third quarter NZ GDP offered the kiwi temporary relief shifting price from 0.5800 (1.7230) to 0.5860 (1.7060) post release Thursday. Publishing above expectation at 14.0% this formally takes the NZ economy out of the second quarter recession. Earlier French and German manufacturing rose in November showing good resilience offsetting poor service sector weakness. Firms seem positive about what 2021 holds, but sharp increases in supply chain costs are driving up manufacturing expenses. Overshadowing positivity are fresh lockdowns in Germany and the Netherlands with spikes in hospitalisations and deaths. With a quiet week ahead on the economic docket we should see this cross trade within recent ranges.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5830 EURNZD 1.7152
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5800- 0.5860 EURNZD 1.7062- 1.7239

Risk markets took a turn south over the weekend with the news that Brexit was far from done and coronavirus infections worsened. This sent price reversing from 0.5855 (1.7080) levels to 0.5830 (1.7160) into Tuesday as safe haven buys dominated sentiment. October Eurozone Industrial Production came in higher than predicted at 2.1% for the month better than the -4.4% we expected. This data however was overshadowed by the news that Germany will head into strict lockdowns. Looking ahead we have third quarter GDP Thursday which is expected to highlight a strong economic recovery through to September. Technically we are still trading in the current bull trend from 0.5780’s (1.7300) low and should we see a momentum shift through 0.5815 (1.7200) levels we could see further EUR push higher.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5819 (1.7185)
Resistance: 0.5890 (1.7300)
Support: 0.5780 (1.6970)
Last weeks Range: 0.5793-0.5856 (1.7076-1.7260)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has made gains on the Euro (EUR) in recent days thanks in large part to the lack of progress in Brexit trade negotiations and last night’s European Central Bank announcement. The NZDEUR currently trades at 0.5845 (1.7109) with the risks skewed toward further strength in the pair. While Brexit trade talks will continue until Sunday, no one is optimistic that a deal will be reached. In this environment the EUR should continue to underperform. A move toward the late November high of 0.5895 seems likely at this stage.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5845 EURNZD 1.7109
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5787 – 0.5850 EURNZD 1.7093 – 1.7279

A strong pullback in the Euro (EUR) last week from 0.5895 (1.6970) levels against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching the 0.5790 (1.7270) area was a decent correction which has held into this week. A small trip to 0.5820 (1.7180) early Tuesday looks to be short lived with price aiming for the last week’s low currently. Looking forward we have the ECB monetary policy and rate announcement Friday with expectations of a change to existing policy given a stalled economy and prediction of a contraction in fourth quarter GDP. The ECB has vowed to use all its available tools and will no doubt expand its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. It has been topped up by 1.35T EUR and extended to the middle of 2021 but an additional 400-600B will come into play. Risk sentiment should dominate direction over the course of the week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5809 (1.7215)
Resistance: 0.5900 (1.7570)
Support: 0.5690 (1.6960)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5787-0.5890 (1.6979-1.7280)

The Euro (EUR) has been one of the few currencies to outperform the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week, causing the cross rate to pull back from last week’s highs of just under 0.5900, to the current level of 0.5825. This just above key support seen at 0.5820 and any breach of that level would likely encourage further selling and signal the start of a much broader correction lower. If however this 0.5820 support level can continue to contain the downside, as it has done so for the past 24 hours, then the pair may well stage another attempt to rally back toward 0.5900. The key event next week will be Thursday night’s European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Statement. Aside from that the economic calendar from both countries is mostly a second tier affair.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5825 EURNZD 1.7167
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5821 – 0.5901 EURNZD 1.6947 – 1.7180

The giant run from 0.5565 (1.7970) in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Euro (EUR) was temporarily halted Monday around 0.5880 (1.7000) as the Euro pushed back. Euro demand due to month end safe haven / position squaring took place accentuated by the Thanksgiving US Holiday. Germany is considering expanding the virus aid program to firms which equates to Euro 4.5B a week in December after the government imposed a partial lockdown in November closing bars and restaurants and halting travel. We expect price to test 0.5815 (1.7200) levels over the week
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5880 (1.7006)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5680 (1.6630)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5845-0.5901 (1.6947-1.7109)

A boomer third quarter Retail Sales release sent the kiwi surging to fresh highs early in the week against the Euro (EUR). Following this event were letters exchanged by Reserve Bank Governor Orr and Finance Minister Robertson, Robertson asked Orr how rising housing prices could be included into the monetary policy mandate to stem the over inflated housing market. Orr response was a little prickly saying housing inflation was already factored into spending and CPI. The exchange of letters sent the kiwi orbiting around 0.5890 (1.6970) Friday. French and German PMI figures did the EUR no favours pointing to a sharp contraction in the sector. We could see the kiwi make a lunge for huge physiological resistance at 0.6000 (1.6660) if a little “risk on” continues next week.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5880 EURNZD 1.7006
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5841- 0.5901 EURNZD 1.6945- 1.7120

The Euro (EUR) rallied Monday off the back of positive coronavirus vaccine news from AstraZeneca, entering Tuesday around 0.5750 (1.7110) levels. The release of positive German Manufacturing which published at 57.9 versus 56.0 also boosted the Euro. A speech by ECB’s Isabel Schnabel has a benign effect on the pair. Earlier NZ Retail Sales pushed up the kiwi for a short while as figures showed a massive rebound in consumer spending for the third quarter. Later in the week we have Governor Orr speaking and the ECB Financial Stability Review. We expect the kiwi to rebound over the coming days in another round of “risk on”.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5855 (1.7079)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7770)
Support: 0.5630 (1.6650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5790-0.5863 (1.7055-1.7270)

Price moves this week in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have been predominantly sideways with a slight edge to the NZD to 0.5855 (1.7085). After the early Monday rally by the kiwi risk euphoria ran out of puff with positive vaccine headlines. Eurozone employment and flash GDP printed well boosting the euro Tuesday but only momentarily before the kiwi was back in charge. The release of Eurozone Current Account data which came in at 25.2B compared to the expected 28.6B surplus helped to drive the EUR lower.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5821 EURNZD 1.7179
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5785- 0.5858 EURNZD 1.7068- 1.7284

After a short visit to 0.5770 (1.7340) late last week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross based on improved eurozone data, the kiwi has again regained momentum. Eurozone employment and flash GDP printed well boosting the euro but only momentarily before risk markets returned to push the NZD higher to 0.5840 (1.7130) into Tuesday. Coronavirus vaccine news out of Moderna says the vaccine is 94.5% effective, boosting hopes the global economy can return to normal in 2021. We have no data this week in this pair, just Lagarde speaking Friday.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5823 (1.7173)
Resistance: 0.5865 (1.7350)
Support: 0.5765 (1.7050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5759-0.5823 (1.7174-1.7365)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5865 (1.7050) midweek, punching through February 2020 highs but couldn’t hold it. The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged on Wednesday at 0.25% as well as the large asset purchases program. The committee agreed that additional stimulus would be provided through a “funding for Lending Program” (FLP) starting in December. This will allow the central bank to pass on cheap funding costs with lower interest rates to banks. Surprisingly the central bank made no mention of negative rates instead saying they would most likely cut to 0.10% next May. This could be it. The less dovish rhetoric sent the kiwi higher. Lagarde warned of negative inflation pressures and the ongoing impacts of coronavirus and particularly any impact of being over optimistic around a coronavirus vaccine. She said “while the latest news on a vaccine looks encouraging, we could still face recurring cycles if accelerating viral spread and tightening restrictions until a widespread immunity is achieved” – any recovery is likely to be “stop start”. The positive risk sentiment turned Thursday, with the euro back in business outperforming the kiwi to 0.5795 (1.7260) levels.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5790 EURNZD 1.7271
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5713- 0.5866 EURNZD 1.7047- 1.7501

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is extending last week’s gains from the 0.5715 (1.7500) area against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5780 (1.7300), the 4th straight week in a row the kiwi has outperformed reaching mid July 2020 levels. The European Union has agreed to hit the US with USD4B worth of tariffs in the ongoing Boeing and Airbus subsidies disputes. Cheese and Wine are subject to tariffs in the US – the EU retaliating on a slew of US imports products. 0.5825 (1.7170) marks the February 2020 high, perhaps not this week but bias is certainly weighted to further upside in the kiwi. Tomorrow’s RBNZ won’t shake up the kiwi with no forecast to cut rates into the negatives just yet- Orr may highlight further cheap lending scenarios to banks however which could in turn weaken the NZD slightly. ECB’s Lagarde speaks Friday.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5768 (1.7337)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7560)
Support: 0.5695 (1.7160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5677-0.5785 (1.7285-1.7615)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run higher against the Euro (EUR) over the week reaching a fresh high of 0.5730 (1.7450). Risk on movement based on improvements in equity markets and US election results boosted the kiwi across the board. This is the first time the NZD has had a daily close above 0.5720 (1.7480) since early July trading. NZ unemployment for the third quarter came in at 5.3% exactly as predicted not really making a dent to price. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement is next Wednesday with no expectation just yet of rates being cut lower.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5736 EURNZD 1.7433
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5662- 0.5740 EURNZD 1.7420- 1.7659

The Euro (EUR) was hit hard last week on a dovish ECB and lockdowns, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) making the most of it reaching 0.5710 (1.7520). France and Germany have announced lockdown plans as well as the ECB saying they will ease policy in December. The Euro has been a low key safe haven currency at times throughout the coronavirus pandemic and could also come into favour as US elections results publish. Any risk seen in could benefit the Euro causing selling of the NZD. The NZ Unemployment Rate is Wednesday which is expected to print around 5.3% for September from the 4.0% in August. On the whole it could turn out to be a bad week for the kiwi- especially if Biden is elected.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5695 (1.7560)
Resistance: 0.5725 (1.7970)
Support: 0.5565 (1.7470)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5647-0.5706 (1.7524-1.7708)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains into the second half of the week to 0.5707 (1.7520) against the Euro (EUR) as risk appetite reduced. As expected the ECB held rates unchanged and hasn’t made any shifts to policy overnight. ECB’s Lagarde said there is “little doubt” that a set of policy measures will be agreed at the December meeting as challenges around the eurozone economies mount along with coronavirus. These challenges were made clearer when yesterday France and Germany made the decisions to return to partial lockdowns. Lagarde remains open minded saying he would look at changing policy tactics. She also urged more fiscal stimulus and is in negotiations with the European Parliament on details of a potential recovery fund. The ECB’s ability to add more stimulus is fairly limited. Thursday trading saw price a well bid Euro taking price to 0.5650 (1.7700) before reversing Friday to 0.5680 (1.7600) Looking into next week we have key NZ Unemployment figures for September.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5675 EURNZD 1.7621
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5639- 0.5707 EURNZD 1.7521- 1.7732

The Euro (EUR) has fallen Monday on broad sentiment against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Coronavirus cases across the eurozone continue to gain, dampening investor mood. Many countries have imposed tougher restrictions after Europe recorded 1.3M new cases last week. Coming off the open at 0.5640 (1.7725) the pair squeezed higher to 0.5670 (1.7640) into Tuesday sessions. On the economic docket this week is the all important ECB refinancing rate and policy statement. After last week’s poor PMI data the ECB could be dovish. Following recent ranges we expect the cross to test 0.5590 (1.7900).
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5656 (1.7680)
Resistance: 0.5715 (1.7960)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5550-0.5671 (1.7634-1.8019)

ECB’s Lagarde spoke midweek on monetary policy issues facing the economy, her comments helped boost the Euro to 0.5550 (1.8020) before a massive reversal shift to the price took place. The kiwi recovered losses to 0.5650 (1.7700) as risk mood improved overnight as hopes of a stimulus deal in the US improved. Eurozone manufacturing prints tonight with expectations of recent pick-ups in the sector. Looking into next week we have ECB rate announcement and monetary policy announcements and Australian CPI for the September quarter.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5649 EURNZD 1.7702
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5549- 0.5659 EURNZD 1.7669- 1.8020

The Euro has pushed higher on the weekly open to 0.5610 (1.7820) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as risk sentiment deteriorates. Market sentiment remains risk averse with the US fiscal stimulus plan a long way from being done and further halts to vaccine trials at Eli Lilly dampening mood. NZ CPI for the quarter ending September prints Friday with predictions of a half decent result which could lead to questions being raised with negative rates predicted at the RBNZ later in 2020 or early 2021 and if they are indeed required. Eurozone manufacturing for France and Germany release at the week’s end. On the chart price is still moving within recent ranges, we need to see a break below 0.5600 (1.7880) on the downside to mark a fresh trend change.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5601 (1.7854)
Resistance: 0.5680 (1.7960)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7610)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5598-0.5687 (1.7583-1.7862)

It’s been a game of two halves this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair with price shifting to 0.5680 (1.7600) early in the week and back to 0.5625 (1.7780) into Fridays sessions, the EUR recovering all its losses. Sentiment turned from risk on to risk off Wednesday after headline news suggesting a US coronavirus fiscal package was unlikely to be negotiated prior to the US presidential election. The ECB continues to hint at rate cuts, and coronavirus lockdown restrictions are back with new cases on the rise across Euroland. With a lack of data we should see the cross bounce around in recent ranges for a few days.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5630 EURNZD 1.7761
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5621- 0.5686 EURNZD 1.7584- 1.7789

It’s a very thin week of data in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with nothing significant publishing. Add in a US holiday Monday and the NZ election this weekend and we are likely to see very little movement in this cross. Movement into Tuesday has seen a little buyer action in the Euro with price hovering around 0.5630 (1.7770) from the 0.5635 (1.7745) open. Strangely however we should have seen a bounce higher in the kiwi with equity levels up around 2.0% overnight but this hasn’t happened. With the ECB saying they are forecasting a deeper recession on coronavirus effects, we could see investors back into the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5626 (1.7775)
Resistance: 0.5675 (1.7950)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7620)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5567-0.5650 (1.7700-1.7964)

Although through most of the week risk mood has been solid the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has come off against the Euro to 1.7960 Thursday. Friday’s turn of sentiment took the price back to 1.7850 into Friday. The release of the disappointing German Trade balance report for August contributed to the Euro demise with exports up 2.4% and imports up just 5.8% on July numbers. Countries across Europe are seeing a resurgence of coronavirus cases after successfully slowing down the virus earlier in the year, Germany had things under control earlier in the month but are also experiencing fresh spikes. Moves in the cross should be limited to recent ranges heading into the weekend.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5604 EURNZD 1.7844
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5567- 0.5674 EURNZD 1.7622- 1.7962

The Euro (EUR) turned on a dime off 0.5675 (1.7620) – the weekly close spiking to 0.5635 (1.7750) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Tuesday trading. EC president Ursula von Der Leyen and Boris Johnson offered encouraging comments in their optimism around getting a Brexit deal done with investors showing support buying Euro. Coronavirus cases in the EU region are spiking again to alarming levels with just 4 countries not measuring below critical threshold. Only Germany, Finland, Cyprus and Norway have things under control. Looking ahead on the calendar we have a thin week of economic data with just ECB’s Lagarde speaking. 0.5610 (1.7820) is key support for the kiwi e don’t expect a break below this area this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.5641 (1.7727)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.7860)
Support: 0.5600 (1.7480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5606-0.5679 (1.7610-1.7838)

NZD/EUR movement has been higher over the week from 0.5605 to 0.5666 mainly on the continuing mess that the Brexit negotiations have become. The Covid-19 cases continue to increase within the Eurozone and last news that Madrid had gone back to lockdown was not encouraging of a return to normal and better economic EU data. NZ looks to be solid on this cross and we look for a test of 0.5685 next week which if broken will target 0.5730, support around 0.5605 unlikely to be threatened over the week.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5658 EURNZD 1.7674
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5606- 0.5670 EURNZD 1.7636- 1.7836

The Eurozone has been hit by a double whammy of increasing Covid-19 cases and lacklustre economic data, with ECB head Lagarde commenting that the ECB “continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate”, as the region’s coronavirus resurgence threatens the economic progress made since lockdowns. Further increases of the ECB’s bond-buying programme are expected in November. Annual inflation for the Eurozone fell into negative territory in August for the first time in four years, with Lagarde describing the ECB’s projection that it will average 1.3% in 2022 as “not satisfactory”. While the NZD has its own problems, those of the Eurozone look more systemic and should contribute to the NZD to holding above support around the 0.5580 level. Currently trading around the 0.5618 mark , the 0.5600-0.5650 range should hold for the next few days.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5617 (1.7803)
Resistance: 0.5650 (1.7870)
Support: 0.5595 (1.7700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5595-0.5717 (1.7490-1.7870)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been under pressure from the Euro (EUR) since the opening bell of this week. A broad “risk off” sentiment in the market has been the major driver as US equities have also posted significant losses weighing on all riskier assets. The NZD underperformance has come even in the face of disappointing Euro area economic data. French and German Manufacturing PMI’s both printed sub 50, signalling contraction in the sector, and the German IFO business climate index for September also printed lower than forecast at 93.4, vs 93.8 expected. While we can’t rule out further declines for the NZDEUR pair, it is looking like it may well have gone far enough in the near term a period of consolidation should be expected. Last night’s low of 0.5594 may well be as good as it gets for NZD buyers over the coming days. Any potential recovery in the cross however, is going to run into resistance around 0.5665.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5611 EURNZD 1.7822
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5595 – 0.5731 EURNZD 1.7448 – 1.74874

Markets turned risk off Monday on coronavirus fears taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross to 0.5665 (1.7650) into Tuesday. During late Friday trading the cross met the long term resistance at 0.5730 (1.7450) from late July but failed to kick on. It’s reported the ECB has launched a review of its coronavirus pandemic bond buying program to work out how long it should continue and whether its flexibility should be included in older programs. This week’s attention is on the RBNZ policy and cash rate announcement. A dovish read by governor Orr is widely predicted, this may be already priced into the curve, however risk sentiment could damage the ability for the kiwi to kick on. We think price could retest the fortnight low of 0.5620 (1.7800)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5664 (1.7655)
Resistance: 0.5725 (1.7800)
Support: 0.5620 (1.7470)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5632-0.5732 (1.7447-1.7757)

It’s been a one way ticket to ride this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair with price all kiwi supportive travelling from 0.5630 (1.7760) Monday into Friday to 0.5705 (1.7530). Second quarter NZ GDP was overall a non-event in terms of currency movement as figures showed a -12.2% decline to the 3 months ending 30th June just off estimates of -12.5%. This marks the second time in a decade NZ has entered a recession after the 2008 GFC and the worst quarter of growth since records began. Here’s looking at third quarter figures for a strong rebound. Resistance looks to be 0.5715 (1.7500), a break through here for the NZD and the kiwi is staring at 0.5830 (1.7150)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5710 EURNZD 1.7513
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5630- 0.5716 EURNZD 1.7492- 1.7760

Last week the ECB left their policy on hold with an upbeat tone by failing to address concerns with the high Euro (EUR) as many thought. However, Monday’s action has seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) look like it wants to push ahead as risk conditions improve and equity indices went higher overnight. Positive headlines involving coronavirus vaccines are also helping mood. Pfizer is planning to increase its phase 3 trials from 30,000 to 44,000, expected to be completed in October. The company hopes to roll out vaccines by the end of the year. We have very little on the board this week as attention is firmly on second quarter NZ GDP releasing Thursday. Until then the pair should be confined to recent ranges around 0.5650 (1.7690)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5636 (1.7743)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.8130)
Support: 0.5515 (1.7480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5608-0.5674 (1.7623-1.7832)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended falls Thursday against the Euro (EUR) after the ECB came out hawkish with the price reaching 0.5610 (1.7830). ECB’s Lagarde left interest rates unchanged and downplayed concerns over the recent rally in the currency. The Covid bond buying program was unchanged at 1.35trillion with the deposit rate remaining at -0.50%. However the current 2020 forecast was revised up slightly with the economy expected to slump by 8.0% instead of the previous forecast of 8.7% but the 2021 forecast was revised down from +5.2% to 5.0%. The Euro may push higher heading into the close. Looking ahead we have key NZ data next Thursday with second quarter GDP releasing.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5625 EURNZD 1.7777
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5607- 0.5675 EURNZD 1.7620- 1.7832

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross rate flatlines into Tuesday trading around 0.5660 (1.7670) as markets were quiet from the US Labor Day Holiday. The kiwi deteriorated towards the weekend with the RBNZ signalling no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) being overvalued, starting conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates to ward off low inflation. Looking ahead the ECB will announce their refinancing rate and policy statement Thursday with interest over whether they will do anything to try and push inflation higher amid a less than optimistic mood with signs that the EU economy is losing momentum. With a thin calendar risk markets could play a bigger role for the kiwi if US/China tensions worsen expect the NZD to test 0.5605 (1.7840).
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5667 (1.7646)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.7750)
Support: 0.5635 (1.7480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5633-0.5724 (1.7469-1.7751)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) deteriorated sharply Thursday from 0.5725 (1.7470) against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5650 (1.7700) into Friday as risk sentiment sank. The RBNZ signalled no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) being overvalued and started conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates in efforts to ward off low inflation. Orr saying “the best contribution we can make to financial stability is to ensure we head off unnecessarily low inflation or deflation”. Covid cases are starting to rise again in France and Spain with the situation being watched closely. A break back below 0.5650 (1.7700) could confirm a trend reversal.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5659 EURNZD 1.7670
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5607- 0.5724 EURNZD 1.7469- 1.7834

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed back on the Euro (EUR) into the weekly close outperforming for the second week running to reach 0.5660 (1.7660). ANZ Business Confidence released slightly lower at -41.8 on the index showing the struggles recently from the efforts of coronavirus on NZ businesses. Nevertheless, the kiwi has started the week in the red as equity markets in Europe and the US took a break from recent highs leading the way lower for risk currencies. Although second tier data, Italian, German and Spanish inflation numbers printed ok. No further data on the calendar of note this week should see the cross consolidate around 0.5650 (1.7700) levels.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5639 (1.7733)
Resistance: 0.5660 (1.8230)
Support: 0.5485 (1.7660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5515-0.5667 (1.7645-1.8134)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained on the Euro (EUR) this week trading to 0.5620 (1.7800) into Friday as risk sentiment improved. This marks a reversal for the kiwi after 5 weeks of losses. Most importantly price has travelled through 0.5600 (1.7850) channel resistance and looks to have consolidated around current levels. Tier one economic data is scarce looking into next week with nothing on the calendar to grab our attention. We expect the Euro to bounce back as there is only so far the kiwi can go on “risk” factors alone.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5622 EURNZD 1.7787
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5514- 0.5631 EURNZD 1.7759- 1.8134

With equity markets experiencing all-time highs we saw the commodity correlated currencies strengthen towards the end of the week and risk improve. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned from 0.5490 (1.8220) recouping losses to 0.5550 (1.8030) vs the Euro (EUR). Early Monday’s NZ Retail Sales published slightly ahead of expectation for the June quarter at -14.6% compared to -16.3% expected but it’s a terrible result nonetheless. It’s clear to see that retailers have really struggled through coronavirus plummeting by a whopping 15%. Spending for, eating out and accommodation, vehicles and fuel fell sharply compared to the June 2019 quarter. It’s a very quiet week of data releases – all eyes will be on the Central Bankers meeting at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming from Thursday.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5534 (1.8070)
Resistance: 0.5555 (1.8220)
Support: 0.5490 (1.8000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5488-0.5571 (1.7950-1.8222)

The Euro (EUR) posted another profitable week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price continuing to fall to 0.5525 (1.8100) Tuesday. Post the RBNZ meeting Wednesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform, in contrast to comments made by the German economic ministry saying the economy is expected to “expand strongly” in the third quarter but “it’s set for a lengthy recovery process that depends to a large extent on the course of the pandemic at home and abroad”. Looking ahead we have German and French manufacturing data releasing Friday with a pick up in production expected for both in July. The recent coronavirus outbreak in NZ is not helping the kiwi, as long as Auckland remains in level 3 the kiwi should remain offered. Expected direction this week: Retest of 0.5475 (1.8270)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5502 EURNZD 1.8175
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5487- 0.5572 EURNZD 1.7947- 1.8224

The Euro (EUR) posted another profitable week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price continuing to fall to 0.5525 (1.8100) Tuesday. Post the RBNZ meeting Wednesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform, in contrast to comments made by the German economic ministry saying the economy is expected to “expand strongly” in the third quarter but “it’s set for a lengthy recovery process that depends to a large extent on the course of the pandemic at home and abroad”. Looking ahead we have German and French manufacturing data releasing Friday with a pickup in production expected for both in July. The recent coronavirus outbreak in NZ is not helping the kiwi, as long as Auckland remains in level 3 the kiwi should remain offered. Expected direction this week: Retest of 0.5475 (1.8270)
Exchange Rate
Current level: 0.5512 (1.8142)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8220)
Support: 0.5490 (1.7850)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5501-0.5639 (1.7733-1.8178)

Post the RBNZ meeting Wednesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform against the Euro (EUR) with price snapping through support at 0.5620 (1.7800) to reach 0.5550 (1.8030) Friday. The RBNZ increased their asset buying program from 60B to 100B in efforts to get more cheap money into the NZ economy. They have not ruled out taking the cash rate into the negatives, this clearly will depend on how well the economy handles the current second wave of coronavirus and the new lockdowns introduced earlier this week. Looking ahead we have Eurozone manufacturing numbers to print late next week. Further downward bias for the kiwi expected for a while.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5533 EURNZD 1.8073
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5535- 0.5638 EURNZD 1.7734- 1.8065

A slow start to the week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) saw price extend to 0.5595 (1.7870) yesterday against the Euro (EUR). Just shy of a double bottom shaping at 0.5585 (1.7910), price reversed to 0.5615 (1.7810) and looks set on the chart to continue towards 0.5645 (1.7720) resistance. Reports in Germany have surfaced of further plans to increase their stimulus package by 16B Euro to a total of 26B EUR. With growing optimism over recent weeks that Germany is on the right track to recovery they are still a long way off after second quarter growth published at -10.1% the worst result since the second world war. German economic sentiment prints tonight. Expected direction this week: NZD to push higher.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5617 (1.7083)
Resistance: 0.5715 (1.7900)
Support: 0.5585 (1.7500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5583-0.5641 (1.7726-1.7911)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) staged a rebound against the Euro (EUR) overnight pulling back losses from 0.5580 (1.7920) to 0.5635 (1.7750) in early Friday trading. It’s been a busy couple of days for Euro second tier data releases with PMI’s from Italy and Spain and Eurozone Retail Sales. Spain Services PMI rose from 50.2 to 51.9 with Italy’s PMI rising from 46.4 to 51.6. Eurozone Retail Sales rose by 5.7% in June just shy of the forecasted 5.9% rise forecasted. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate release and policy statement holds focus with expectations of an increase to the central bank bond buying programme.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5628 EURNZD 1.7768
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5582- 0.5653 EURNZD 1.7687- 1.7913

The Euro continued its recovery against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week pushing price to 0.5620 (1.7788) into the Tuesday trading day. This marks the third week straight the NZD has taken onboard losses stemming from the prior high of 0.5830 (1.7150). Euro manufacturing numbers overnight looked good with solid improvements and turbocharged the EUR. Looking ahead with nothing on the Euro calendar so focus will be on NZ employment numbers in particular the unemployment rate of which is expected to publish around 5.5% a far cry from what this number could have been if the economy didn’t stamp out coronavirus. Expected weekly direction: downside bias for the kiwi to 0.5570 (1.7945)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5625 (1.7770)
Resistance: 0.5660 (1.7820)
Support: 0.5610 (1.7670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5609-0.5695 (1.7558-1.7827)

The New Zealand Dollar traded down to an 8 week low of 0.5630 (1.7770) into Friday trading but has recovered some losses to trade back at 0.5650 (1.7690). Spanish unemployment came in lower than we were anticipating at 15.3% vs 16.6% and German prelim GDP for the second quarter was -10.1% against expectations of -9.0% clearly missing the mark and plunging Germany into a recession. ECB countries have tightened up on coronavirus controls due to second wave fears. Next week’s NZ employment data is the key calendar standout. We expect the price in the cross to be closer to 0.5680 (1.7600) at the weekly close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5637 EURNZD 1.7740
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5625- 0.5714 EURNZD 1.7500- 1.7776

The Euro (EUR) has extended last week’s gains against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Monday to a 6 week low to 0.5690 (1.7580) as the EUR gains momentum. German and French Manufacturing activity was up sharply in July according to the latest reports with French business activity also showing the quickest rise in 2.5 years. More businesses have opened following coronavirus lockdowns marking expansions for the second month running after June’s modest rises in the business and manufacturing sectors. It’s a quiet week of data for the pair with just German second quarter GDP printing Thursday. Expectations are a decline of around 9.0% for the second quarter ending June 30th. We expect a correction of sorts this week as the overbought Euro limits buying.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5691 (1.7571)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7900)
Support: 0.5585 (1.7160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5677-0.5792 (1.7265-1.7614)

Early week gains for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) helped to briefly drive this pair to a high of 0.5792 (1.7265), but since then the Euro (EUR) has outperformed the local currency. European Union Countries agreed to a EUR750 Billion recovery fund and this underpinned the Euro’s resurgence against the Kiwi. In the past 12 hours the NZD suffered further as a wave of “risk off” sentiment swept markets after US weekly unemployment claims printed higher than expected. The NZDEUR pair now trades at the 0.5720 (1.7483) level, just above initial support which is seen around 0.5710. A break below there would open the way for a test of 0.5680 (1.7606). We have Manufacturing and Service Sector PMI’s for Europe set for release tonight which should make interesting reading. Expectations are for gains in those PMI’s back toward 50 or 51, which would signal renewed expansion in the sectors and likely underpin further EUR gains.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5720 EURNZD 1.7483
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5713 – 0.5792 EURNZD 1.7265 – 1.7503

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eased Monday to 0.5870 (1.7040) against the Euro (EUR) in what was a quiet directionless open to the week. It looks as though world leaders at the European Summit are on the breakthrough of agreeing a proposal on the pandemic recovery fund. In a marathon meeting to tweak the Euro 750B fund a compromise has led to significant progress. The bone of contention has been the split over how much of the fund would be as grants and how much would be in loans to the member states. The news has kept the Euro at the forefront of investors minds, with the currency making small gains into Tuesday. A positive outcome will push the Euro higher.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5744 (1.7409)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7580)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5716-0.5796 (1.7254-1.7495)

The Euro (EUR) continued its recovery over the week into Friday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.5720 (1.7480) before dropping back to 0.5750 (1.7400). Overnight the ECB meeting came and went without any bombshell moments with the rate remaining unchanged at -0.5% and the (PEPP) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme remaining unchanged at 1.35T. The PEPP will continue through into 2021 including the bond purchase program which will run until at least 2022. The Euro popped higher post release as investors got comfort from no surprises. With the risk off tone weighing we could see more gains made by the Euro towards the close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5746 EURNZD 1.7403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5720- 0.5821 EURNZD 1.7178- 1.7485

The Euro (EUR) was sharply higher across the board at the weekly open. Against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it traded from 1.7200 (0.5815) to 1.7312 (0.5775) into early Tuesday. Improving economic updates and growing optimism seem to be doing the trick as Europe opens the economy back up. European Union forecasters are predicting the bloc will contract more than previously thought because of the fallout from coronavirus. The 27 countries are predicted to contract by 8.3% this year before growing again in 2021 by 5.8% according to the latest predictions. The ECB announce their cash rate and statement Thursday with chances of more talk about a V shaped economic recovery. This however will be largely based on July data being positive with the likes of inflationary pressures with high unemployment and business uncertainty weighing. We don’t expect the Euro to run away this week and think the likely move is a reversal back towards the open
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5757 (1.7370)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7560)
Support: 0.5695 (1.7160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5753-0.5835 (1.7139-1.7381)

After a strong start to the week for the Euro (EUR) to 0.5780 (1.7300) risk sentiment pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) back in the driver’s seat to 0.5825 (1.7170) into Friday trading. Paschal Donohoe has been elected as the new Eurogroup President pushing out favourite Nadia Calvino who had been in pole position in early rounds of voting. Donohoe saying his immediate priority is to carve a path forward for rebuilding the European recovery and providing sustainable growth to the EU countries. European Union forecasters are predicting the bloc will contract more than previously thought because of the fallout from coronavirus. The 27 countries are predicted to contract by 8.3% this year before growing again in 2021 by 5.8% according to the latest predictions. This news shaped the Euro lower which we expect to continue into the weekly close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5811 EURNZD 1.7208
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5777- 0.5827 EURNZD 1.7160- 1.7309

End of week demand in the New Zealand Dollar helped it climb to close around 0.5815 (1.7200) against the Euro (EUR). However, a stiff reversal off the open has seen the kiwi lose most of the recent gains falling back to 0.5775 (1.7320) before regaining the edge into early Tuesday to 0.5800 (1.7240) as risk mood improved. Eurozone unemployment surprised investors by releasing lower at 7.4% from the predicted 7.6% for May- these numbers suggest the unemployment rate has plateaued. Attention is with tomorrow’s EU quarterly Economic Forecasts of EU member countries which could add volatility.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5794 (1.7259)
Resistance: 0.5820 (1.7500)
Support: 0.5715 (1.7180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5698-0.5825 (1.7168-1.7551)

Tuesday’s risk sentiment shift from risk off to risk on took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) , Euro (EUR) cross from around 0.5720 (1.7480) levels to 0.5795 (1.7260) Friday. The EU and UK Brexit negotiators are back nutting out a trade deal with EU’s Barnier saying serious differences still remain over a number of important issues. Minor Eurozone data this week has been solid, helping to give the Euro the odd leg up, meanwhile ECB’s Lagarde said “the worst is behind us”. Eurozone unemployment surprised markets by releasing lower at 7.4% from the predicted 7.6% for May- these numbers suggest the unemployment rate has plateaued in recent months. Huge resistance at 0.5815 (1.7200) stands in the way of the kiwi posting higher highs in the coming days.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5791 EURNZD 1.7268
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5690- 0.5800 EURNZD 1.7240- 1.7573

After months of declines in the Euro (EUR) we could be seeing a revival develop. The long-term bullish trend in the Euro, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is sitting at a pivotal area at 0.5715 (1.7500) and looks like it wants to reverse. This bullish channel has been in play since mid-March this year, a breakthrough 0.5650 (1.7700) would confirm the end of months of NZD momentum. ECB president Lagarde said “we probably have passed the lowest point in the crisis, the recovery will be a complicated matter” A thin calendar with only ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday may keep the cross at current levels for now.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5709 (1.7516)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7580)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5687-0.5768 (1.7338-1.7583)

Markets look for directional cues in early Friday sessions with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trading lower off the open to 0.5730 (1.7450) but with no real momentum. French and German manufacturing surprised to the upside beating expectations and bouncing back sharply in June. A V style recovery in the eurozone still looks a tall order but they are certainly recovering well. Next week’s calendar is slow with just ANZ Business confidence to digest. Coronavirus worry along with the latest IMF downgrade could support the EUR into the close and through next week, especially if NZ has a second wave community spread case.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5721 EURNZD 1.7479
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5688- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7334- 1.7579

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued last week’s momentum to 0.5770 (1.7340) this morning against the Euro (EUR) as it eyes the previous high around 0.5815 (1.7200) levels from the 6th of June. The kiwi is still very well bid on dips from the trend pattern of mid-March and looks to continue north for some time. Tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate and policy decision is the highlight on the docked for the week with expectations Orr will deliver a dovish stance booking forward but retain the current QE package of 60B for now. French and German manufacturing later today should confirm further issues for these economies and pressure the EUR. ECB’s Guindos has suggested the Eurozone should rebound in the second half of this year.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5749 (1.7395)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7640)
Support: 0.5670 (1.7330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5687-0.5771 (1.7329-1.7583)

After seeing early support for the Euro (EUR) to 0.5685 (1.7595) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has spent most of the week creeping higher to reach 0.5765 (1.7350). In a thin week on the economic docket markets focused on first quarter NZ GDP, releasing at -1.6% vs -1.0% predicted. This is the largest first quarter drop in 29 years as the country feels the effects of lockdown on the economy. Next week’s RBNZ Cash rate is Wednesday with no change expected from 0.25% through to March 2021. We expected the long range trend to continue for the next few weeks at least, with the kiwi making a break for 0.5830 (1.7150) possibly next week.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5727 EURNZD 1.7460
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5683- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7334- 1.7594

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) initially lost ground off the weekly open travelling to 0.5685 (1.7590) before risk flow brought the kiwi back into favour Tuesday to 0.5730 (1.7450). Germany’s Finance minister Scholz cautioned that as long as there’s no vaccine for coronavirus Germans must live in a way to avoid a second wave starting. A very light economic docket this week sees only NZ GDP first quarter publishing Thursday. A Fibonacci retracement to around the 0.5740 (1.7420) zone may be retested this week, before movement could be restricted to last week’s low of 0.5665 (1.7650).
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5718 (1.7488)
Resistance: 0.5810 (1.7640)
Support: 0.5670 (1.7210)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5665-0.5817 (1.7192-1.7652)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed off 0.5815 (1.7195) Tuesday the 25 Feb 2020 high to 0.5660 (1.7670) against the Euro (EUR) as risk sentiment tumbled. We have seen less enthusiasm for risk currencies since yesterday’s Fed rate decision and statement with renewed demand for the US Dollar. The euphoria from the last couple of weeks ended with a thud led by US indices all dropping over 5.0% overnight. Perhaps this loss of momentum and general risk off tone has gone for the while- I think not. A push back through 0.5600 (1.7850) would cement the bullish change to a bearish bias. Next week’s economic docket looks slim again except for German economic sentiment Tuesday.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5681 EURNZD 1.7602
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5665- 0.5818 EURNZD 1.7187- 1.7652

The Euphoria continues in markets. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5810 (1.7210) into Tuesday with no sight of any letting up in the drive higher by risk associated currencies. The current price signifies a fresh late February level. Last week the ECB left the main refinancing rate on hold while upping its PEPP contribution by an additional 500B to be spent until mid-2021. German Industrial Production printed a disappointing -17.9% based on -16% expectation in April, one economist has called it “the worst month ever” for the German economy at the height of coronavirus. Looking ahead we have ANZ Business Confidence later today which could put pressure on the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5798 (1.7247)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7540)
Support: 0.5700 (1.7150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5625-0.5817 (1.7192-1.7779)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground to 0.5575 (1.7940) into the weekly close against the Euro (EUR) perfectly aligned at the 50% retracement of the prior low of 0.5480 (1.8250) and high of 0.5670 (1.7630). A reversal at this pivotal level retraced the earlier moves higher with the kiwi outperforming the EUR to 0.5705 (1.7530) into the today’s NY session close. Thursday’s ECB cash rate and monetary statement release with the expected increase of the (PEPP) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme with the ECB to add an additional 500B to be spent until mid-2021. Currently trading around the 0.5710 (1.7510) zone this represents a 3-month high for the kiwi. Further support based on risk sentiment is expected.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5736 (1.7433)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7640)
Support: 0.5670 (1.7330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5562-0.5730 (1.7453-1.7979)

Momentum in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued this week against the Euro with risk sentiment positive keeping buyers in the kiwi. Price reached the top end of the recent price band at 0.5675 (1.7620) before falling back from Thursday to 0.5610 (1.7830) as the EU stimulus became a reality. A break below 0.5585 (1.7900) could spell further weakness in the cross but downside should be limited to 0.5570 (1.7950) levels in the medium term, the 50% retracement of the move from 0.5480 (1.8240) and 0.5680 (1.7600).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5588 EURNZD 1.7895
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5586- 0.5674 EURNZD 1.7623- 1.7900

After making a low of 0.5475 early last week the NZD clawed higher to 0.5607, but over the last few days has flatlined on the 0.5595 level looking for direction. Given the comments from the French Central Bank head and ECB member Villeroy, last night , more EUR easing is to come so look for the NZD to hold ground on this cross with potential to move toward the
0.5650 mark over the next few days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5599 (1.7860)
Resistance: 0.5680 (1.8260)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5489-0.5606 (1.7836-1.8215)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered last week’s losses against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5600 (1.7850) Friday after starting the week around 0.5480 (1.8250). The Euro got a little reprieve from AUD momentum after German Chancellor Merkel agreed taxpayers would underwrite as much as EUR 135B of aid to assist the hardest hit EU countries rebuild from the devastation of coronavirus. French and German Manufacturing figures released down on expectations for May but show a noticeable easing decline from April numbers. However, companies are still widely pessimistic with job cuts and discounted prices for products and services still being offered. We expect weakness in the EUR to be limited to 0.5645 (1.7720) for now.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5585 EURNZD 1.7905
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5478- 0.5602 EURNZD 1.7849- 1.8253

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) saw renewed buyer demand against the Euro (EUR) Monday reaching 0.5550 (1.8015). Bouncing off long term support at 0.5480 (1.8250) the kiwi was back above the physiological level of 0.5550 as we think setbacks should continue to be well supported in the week ahead. France and Germany have proposed a 500B Euro recovery fund overnight in a joint plan to add relief from the coronavirus crisis to EU countries hardest hit, the news helping to boost risk sentiment. NZ Retail Sales is Friday along with a bunch of French and German Manufacturing releases. If the risk on mood continues for a while longer we may see price back to the 0.5650 (1.7700) area.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5533 (1.8073)
Resistance: 0.5560 (1.8260)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7980)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5471-0.5688 (1.7581-1.8279)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off the weekly open at 0.5675 (1.7620) against the Euro (EUR) retracing last week’s gains to 0.5530 (1.8080) into Friday. The kiwi started the week on the backfoot after ANZ Business Confidence printed poor before Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate and monetary policy sank the kiwi. The benchmark rate stayed unchanged at 0.25% but Orr’s comments around negative rates towards the end of the year spooked markets as investors exited the kiwi. Orr increased the QE package to 60B which was expected but his overall dovish outlook was noted. Tonight’s German Preliminary GDP for the first quarter 2020 is expected to be -2.3% which could turn buyers back into the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5555 EURNZD 1.8002
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5521- 0.5680 EURNZD 1.7605- 1.8110

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made a fresh 3 month high Monday to 0.5680 (1.7600) against the Euro (EUR) as risk appetite continues to boost risk currencies. The Euro underperformed with the German court ruling that the ECB would need to justify its asset purchase program. The EU has threatened to sue the Germans for not abiding by EU law. NZ Business Confidence printed poorly with the indicators suggesting NZ sees the economic downturn through a pessimistic eye – but as the figure wasn’t as bad as predicted perhaps there is light at the end of the outlook tunnel. NZ rate statement and monetary policy is released tomorrow with predictions the RBNZ could increase current stimulus. Although the EUR recovered overnight to 0.5620 (1.7800) we see further upside to continue for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5614 (1.6412)
Resistance: 0.5680 (1.8200)
Support: 0.5495 (1.7600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5542-0.5689 (1.7579-1.8043)

The roller coaster ride in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) continues with the Euro underperforming this week and the NZD regaining last week’s losses on improvements to risk markets. Wednesday’s NZ unemployment jumped a modest 5,000 in the March quarter to take the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.0% slightly better than the expected 4.4%. Clearly these first quarter figures only partially reflect the overall economic fallout from coronavirus with expectations of employment and growth to rise significantly over the second and third periods. The ECB decided to modify their targeted lending to further support the EU economy and provide more credit to households and companies in order to alleviate the disruption and uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak. From 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021 the rate on TLTRO (targeted longer-term refinancing operations) has been lowered 50 basis points below the main refinancing rate which will allow cheaper money/funds to flow into the economy where it’s needed. We may see further upside yet in the kiwi as it eyes the 9-week daily high at 0.5645 (1.7720) a break here and the pair is in thin air.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5621 EURNZD 1.7789
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5485- 0.5635 EURNZD 1.7746- 1.8226

The ECB decided to modify their targeted lending to further support the EU economy and provide more credit to households and companies in order to alleviate the disruption and uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak. From 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021 the rate on TLTRO (targeted longer term refinancing operations) has been lowered 50 basis points below the main refinancing rate which will allow cheaper money/funds to flow into the economy where it’s needed. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached an early March level of 0.5665 (1.7650) Friday before risk markets brought back the safer EUR to 0.5510 (1.8150) into the close. The kiwi perked up yesterday after Standard & Poor’s rating agency reaffirmed the country’s long term foreign currency debt rating at AA helping to take the pair to 0.5550 (1.8010) this morning. We suspect support in the NZD may be coming to an end in the short to medium term with price to push back towards 0.5400 (1.8500) support.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5550 (1.8020)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8270 )
Support: 0.5475 (1.7860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5487-0.5663 (1.7658-1.8225)

Last week’s weakness in the Euro (EUR) spilled over into this week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to around 0.5600 (1.7860) and sits at a key physiological level. French and Spanish GDP figures publish Thursday before the ECB’s Monetary Policy where they will no doubt take stock of how easing has gone and what tweaks they need to make. We expect the kiwi has reached an overbought zone and could weaken off over the coming days towards 0.5460 (1.8300)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5612 (1.7818)
Resistance: 0.5660 (1.8210 )
Support: 0.5490 (1.7660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5531-0.5619 (1.7798-1.8080)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tested the 7 week low at 0.5600 (1.7860) early week against the Euro (EUR) but fell back to 0.5475 (1.8260) as risk deteriorated. The kiwi then went on to pair back losses again travelling back to 0.5575 (1.7930) midday Friday. Overnight EU leaders have been in talks on a fresh recovery package after the worst PMI data on record printed. PMI data is expected to be a low point as EU countries fight against coronavirus. The leader’s crisis meeting turned into nothing new with disagreements a plenty, and Lagarde telling leaders they have done too little to late. We expect appetite for risk will deteriorate into next week especially with the pair forming a top around 0.5600 (1.7860) Euro should win out.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5563 EURNZD 1.7975
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5470- 0.5596 EURNZD 1.7869- 1.8280.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to 0.5600 (1.7865) Monday continuing last week’s momentum against the Euro (EUR) before falling back to 0.5560 (1.7980). At the moment with a lack of data publishing it’s all about price action in the kiwi. NZ will come out of its level 4 lockdown on the 27th of April which will ease restrictions of workers and boost NZ business which is good for the economy. Level 3 still has its limitations but with the view of opening up the economy in the coming weeks we should see NZD well supported. Germany is set to reopen small shops while France has unveiled a plan to lift its own restrictions of travel and business. Upside bias remains in the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5545 (1.8035)
Resistance: 0.5595 (1.8300)
Support: 0.5465 (1.7880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5467-0.5596 (1.7871-1.8293)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has outperformed the Euro (EUR) for the fourth week straight (19th March) from the low of 0.5090 (1.9650) into Wednesday. A lack of any earth moving data price shifts has been pivoting off coronavirus headlines and risk sentiment. Overnight session risk sentiment improved with US equities and commodity prices improving strengthening the kiwi. The Euro has fundamentally held up well against other currency pairs but suspect price momentum could continue to deteriorate for the Euro as coronavirus rips through the region. ECB Guindos said Europe is likely to experience a more severe recession than the rest of the world and may not show signs of recovering until 2021. PM Macron has extended the nationwide lockdown until 11th of May. Big resistance looks to be at 0.5680 (1.7600) the daily close on the 14th October 2019 – we look for price to extend here in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5530 EURNZD 1.8085
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5465- 0.5605 EURNZD 1.7841- 1.8299

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke above the 3-week high of 0.5480 (1.8250) overnight to a 0.5525 (1.8100) high with market optimism ticking up. Coronavirus fears eased slightly with the outlook better after the global death rate in key places such as Italy, New York, France and Spain dropped yesterday looked encouraging. With economic data slim at the moment coronavirus headlines will continue to shift sentiment as infected and death numbers are released. The ECB started buying commercial paper last week as part of its 750 Billion EUR Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. Purchases will continue through to the end of 2020. Direction is very hard to read currently, if we run with recent trend shifts we could see the pair retest the early March high of 0.5585 (1.7900) soon.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5501 (1.8178)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8230)
Support: 0.5485 (1.8105)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5368-0.5524 (1.8104-1.8628)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross has done absolutely nothing this week as it hovers around the 0.5450 (1.8350) area, a stark contrast to the volatility seen in previous weeks. The numbers of new coronavirus cases coming out of France, Italy and Germany have not been kind to Europe with over 1,800 deaths and 18,000 new infections in the past 24 hours. Earlier in the week reports confirmed a record contraction in manufacturing and business activity in Germany and France for March as the coronavirus cases increased on a massive scale. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. Investors and analysts are still largely unsure whether to continue buying the EUR with the kiwi well supported over the past 2 weeks.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5450 EURNZD 1.8348
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5367- 0.5479 EURNZD 1.8249- 1.8629

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) had its first weekly gain over the Euro (EUR) in five weeks coming from 0.5230 (1.9130) to 0.5420 (1.8450) at the close. It’s steady as she goes into Tuesday however with markets showing pre coronavirus signs overnight with an almost calmness organised tone. A record contraction in Manufacturing and Business activity in Germany and France for March shows an unprecedented collapse in business as the coronavirus cases increased on a massive scale. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. We have nothing on the calendar this week of note in Euro land, only today’s ANZ Business Confidence to focus on. The surveyed number won’t be pretty and could see the kiwi ease off a tad from the current 0.5450 (1.8360) level.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5456 (1.8328)
Resistance: 0.5535 (1.9100)
Support: 0.5235 (1.8070)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5282-0.5462 (1.8308-1.8934)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefited by early week risk on markets against the Euro (EUR) rallying to 0.5460 (1.8320) before the Euro clawed back gains to 0.5280 (1.8930). Overnight’s action continues to be a worry in Europe with the death toll in Italy and Spain more than quadrupling that of China’s. A record contraction in Manufacturing and Business activity in Germany and France for March shows an unprecedented collapse in business as the coronavirus cases have grown out of hand. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. I’m picking a shift over the next 24 hours back to 0.5265 (1.9000) and another “risk off” move before the weekly close.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5388 EURNZD 1.8559
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5240- 0.5459 EURNZD 1.8318- 1.9083

Yesterday Germany banned all public meetings of more than two, while the German Chancellor Merkel was placed in self isolation. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross seems settled this week bouncing around 0.5280 (1.8950) areas. The France death toll has risen to 860 from 674 cases and the Italian death toll has risen a further 602 to 6078, these are scary figures as the virus worsens across the globe. It’s hard to not see further depreciation in the kiwi develop as risk sentiment deteriorates. We think a retest of 0.5090 (1.9650) could be on the cards this week

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5341 (1.8723)
Resistance: 0.5445 (1.9650)
Support: 0.5090 (1.8370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5239-0.5456 (1.8328-1.9089)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro trades just off the weekly open around 0.5405 (1.8500) Friday. After travelling to 0.5012 (1.9950) yesterday after a massive kiwi sell off, the currency recovered during NY and London overnight sessions supported by the Prime Minister officially closed the NZ borders. This move at 400 points or 4cents I have never seen before, these are exhausting times to be in financial markets. Central bank stimulus and coronavirus will continue to drive the pair with it being near impossible to gauge directions from one day to the next.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5370 EURNZD 1.8620
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5022- 0.5516 EURNZD 1.8127- 1.9912

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is bouncing around the weekly open around 0.5435 (1.8400) levels against the Euro (EUR) Tuesday morning, surprisingly, after a busy start to the week. The RBNZ emergency meeting saw rates cut from 1.0% to a record low of 0.25% yesterday as the coronavirus pandemic spread. The ECB announced a fresh package of easing measures in the face of coronavirus offering new loans to banks and liquidity facilities at favourable rates and increased asset purchases to assist the economy. Price this week will test the previous low at 0.5370 (1.8620) with German economic sentiment and NZ fourth quarter 2019 GDP holding attention.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5417 (1.8460)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8600)
Support: 0.5375 (1.8120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5374-0.5638 (1.7736-1.8608)

With all the turmoil surrounding coronavirus the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair hasn’t moved in the last 3 days in comparison to other currency pairings. It pivoted around the 0.5550 (1.8000) area post Monday’s “flash crash” event, even though the ECB announcement this morning was relatively unchanged. The ECB announced a fresh package of easing measures in the face of coronavirus offering new loans to banks and liquidity facilities at favourable rates and increased asset purchases to assist the struggling economy. Many believe the ECB would push out a massive rescue plan but instead shocked markets by boosting QE. With Covid 19 rapidly pushing Europe into recession a fiscal response was also something of expectation but never came. Price in the pair inches closer to the 0.5465 (1.8300) level. I’m not too sure if the kiwi has anything left to combat further declines.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5482 EURNZD 1.8241
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5339- 0.5635 EURNZD 1.7744- 1.8730

Clients selling EUR who had pre-existing orders in place yesterday were treated to a nice surprise when the bottom dropped out of the pair in line with the “flash crash” which took place Monday afternoon. Price travelled to 0.5250 (1.9050) in a quick fire surge as equity markets and Crude Oil peeled off. Returning to 0.5550 (1.8030) into Tuesday sessions, calmness has been somewhat restored for now. If coronavirus fears weren’t bad enough with markets hanging off every new statistic we now have a Saudi Arabia sudden oil price war against Russia to factor in. Euro strength should continue its bullish bias with the ECB having limited options available to them later in the week when they meet.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5554 (1.8005)
Resistance: 0.5640 (1.8210)
Support: 0.5490 (1.7730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5358-0.5671 (1.7364-1.8665)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) managed to halt further declines against the Euro (EUR) this week stabilizing around 0.5600 (1.7850) levels. Sentiment towards coronavirus has been positive in early week trading but risk turned Friday with 138 new cases reported in France with investors exiting the kiwi. Macron says it is inevitable that coronavirus will develop into an epidemic in France – the death toll is still only 7. The ECB are forecast to meet on the 13th of March but with added pressure coming on the ECB in recent days to act sooner and cut rates we may see it lower policy by 10 basis points. With effectively less room to manoeuvre rates the Euro could continue to benefit from yield differentials for some time. Sellers of Euro should look at current levels and take advantage of NZD weakness.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5631 EURNZD 1.7758
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5594- 0.5672 EURNZD 1.7630- 1.7875

The NZDEUR has been a very interesting pair over the past couple of weeks with dramatic losses on the back of Coronavirus fears taking the cross to the lowest level since Oct 2018 at 0.5594 (1.7876). While NZD weakness has driven some of the move, a significant factor has also been strength in the Euro (EUR). The Euro’s gains can be at least partially explained by it’s relatively new status as a funding currency for carry trades. The unwinding of those carry trades has caused significant demand for Euros and that has exasperated the move. It’s the sort of price action we are used to seeing in the Japanese Yen (JPY), but with Europe having had negative interest rates for a while now, many of these carry trades are being funded in Euros. It seems likely that the unwinding of those carry trades has now mostly been done, and as such we don’t expect wholesale losses in the cross from here. The NZDEUR has put in a couple of significant lows around the 0.5570 area over the past couple of years and having traded close to that level in recent days, it may we’ll be that this bout of weakness has run its course for now. Clients looking to convert EUR to NZD should look to take advantage of the current weakness..

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5615 (1.7809)
Resistance: 0.5700 (1.7953)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7544)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5595-0.5853 (1.7084-1.7874)

Another wave of Euro (EUR) support saw the New Zealand Dollar extend losses to 0.5750 (1.7390) Friday blowing the previous yearly low of 0.5822 (1.7175) out of the water. The Euro has benefited from solid economic data with German IFO Business Climate numbers publishing at 96.1 from the 96.0 predicted. For January. However, although this has boosted the Euro and is a leading economic indicator it lags one-two months behind the game and won’t show the effects of coronavirus just yet on the economy. Lagarde’s welcomed German plans to pause the debt brake saying Fiscal measures in support of the economy are welcome especially under the current circumstances. With risk sentiment also driving the NZD lower we could see further weakness in the kiwi develop.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5729 EURNZD 1.7455
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5730- 0.5854 EURNZD 1.7082- 1.7449

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stabilised Monday against the surging Euro (EUR) around 0.5840 (1.7120) levels after declining from 0.5940 (1.6830) a week ago. Euro data and sentiment hasn’t been good of late, so we have been a little surprised after a hawkish RBNZ last week to see the pair trading so low. Overnight the German Business climate Index (IFO) surprised markets with a read of 96.1 in February stronger than last month’s 95.9. The IFO said the coronavirus has not affected the economy. I am not so sure about that with the index a lagging indicator. Core NZ Retail Sales came in at 0.5% for December after 0.9% was forecast also putting pressure on the kiwi. The yearly low in the cross is 0.5822 (1.7175) which is fast approaching. ANZ Business Confidence is Thursday.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5845 (1.7108)
Resistance: 0.5880 (1.7180)
Support: 0.5820 (1.7180)
Last Weeks range: 0.5826-0.5949 (1.6813-1.7164)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) mysteriously gave back last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) retreating lower to 0.5858 (1.7070) Friday. Recent comments from RBNZ governor Ore were hawkish after he left rates on hold at 1.0% saying no further cuts for 2020 would happen. Saying the easing cycle is over rallied the kiwi last week but for some reason it hasn’t received the same positive attention this week. After all Euro data hasn’t been good at all – German sentiment was poor and recent comments from the ECB have been downbeat. I don’t get it. All I can conclude is that coronavirus has been boiling away in the background affecting buyer sentiment towards the kiwi. Next week should be different – with NZ Retail Sales and Business Sentiment we could see a reversal back to 0.5950 (1.6800) levels.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5869 EURNZD 1.7038
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5860- 0.5950 EURNZD 1.6804- 1.7063

Weaker economic data out of the Eurozone has sent the Euro (EUR) lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5945 (1.6820) reversing the past two weeks of gains. It’s a light calendar this week for pair with just German economic sentiment and French and German Manufacturing data releasing. We are expecting a retest of 0.6150 (1.6270) if data is soft. The ECB minutes from the Jan 24th policy meeting is Friday.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5937 (1.6843)
Resistance: 0.6220 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6165 (1.6080)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5846-0.5958 (1.6784-1.7105)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed the past fortnight of losses against the Euro (EUR) trading back to 0.5945 (1.6820) Friday. The Euro took a blow midweek when Eurozone Industrial Production came in below forecast with a downwardly revised print. The RBNZ cash rate remained unchanged at 1.0% with Ore issuing a neutral statement sending the kiwi higher after markets expected a more dovish tone. Economic growth is expected to improve over the last six months of 2020 with employment near maximum levels. Downside could still come back to affect the NZD if coronavirus is not contained and continues to worsen. Prospects are good for the kiwi to retest the yearly high of 0.6010 (1.6637) in the coming days.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5937 EURNZD 1.6843
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5839- 0.5958 EURNZD 1.6784- 1.7124

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hovers around 0.5850 (1.7080) this week against the Euro (EUR) even against poor Euro economic data of late making little impact. Spanish, German and French December Industrial Production all fell short of forecast with Moody’s suggesting Germany’s GDP will remain weak in 2020. This all suggests a deteriorating Euro but with risk factors in the coronavirus impacting sentiment the kiwi bias could fundamentally stay bearish for a while. The yearly daily low is 0.5830 (1.7155) which could come under pressure this week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5845 (1.7108)
Resistance: 0.5895 (1.7160)
Support: 0.5830 (1.6970)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5831-0.5896 (1.696-1.7149)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached an early December 2019 low Friday to 0.5825 (1.7170) against the Euro (EUR) as coronavirus fears impacted price. The kiwi has bounced back slightly into Tuesday to 0.5850 (1.7100) on China’s latest 174B USD liquidity injection to offset a weakened Chinese economy. We have no data out for the Euro, focus in the cross will be on NZ employment data Wednesday. Lagarde testifies Thursday in Paris which could shift price.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5832 (1.7146)
Resistance: 0.5860 (1.7170)
Support: 0.5825 (1.7060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5822-0.5952 (1.6801-1.7176)

The New Zealand Dollar stretched to a fresh yearly low of 0.5875 (1.7020) versus the Euro (EUR) Friday as markets react to further coronavirus headlines. German business sentiment fell short of expectation earlier in the week as the outlook deteriorated indicating the German economy has started the year in a watchful mood. Remember they narrowly avoided a recession in 2019. With a lack of significant economic data to publish this week headline risk around the coronavirus should continue to dominate mood with the NZD forecast to drop lower.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5879 EURNZD 1.7009
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5871- 0.5987 EURNZD 1.6702- 1.7030

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gave back gains off this week’s open against the Euro (EUR) falling back to last week’s low of 0.5940 (1.6840) as markets turned risk averse. The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at minus 0.5% last week and left their bond buying programme at 20B EUR per month outlining the continuation for “as long as necessary”. They also announced the formal start of its “strategy review”. German business sentiment fell yesterday as the outlook deteriorated indicating the German economy has started the year in a watchful mood. Remember they narrowly avoided a recession in 2019. With a lack of significant economic data to publish this week headline risk around the coronavirus should dominate direction.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5935 (1.6850)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.6920)
Support: 0.5910 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5934-0.6001 (1.6663-1.6852)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground into Thursday to 0.5940 (1.6835) against the Euro (EUR) as risk markets spooked by the outbreak of Coronavirus filtered into market sentiment. The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at minus 0.5% last night and left their bond buying programme at 20B EUR per month outlining the continuation for “as long as necessary”. They also announced the formal start of its “strategy review”. The EUR dropped post release unwinding early week gains to 0.5970 (1.6750) post Lagarde policy statement. NZ CPI came in at 0.5% slightly up from the 0.4% expected and boosted the kiwi to 0.5990 (1.6700)

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5986 EURNZD 1.6705
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5938- 0.5991 EURNZD 1.6689- 1.6838

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked lower off the weekly open to the 0.5950 (1.6800) level in thin Martin Luther King holiday markets. Already this early in the year we note the kiwi has a way to go to recoup losses from the yearly open price at 0.6000 (1.6670) with expectations of the EUR making gains in 2020 we may not see this level for some time. NZ CPI for the fourth quarter 2019 publishes Friday and could surprise. Focus will also be on Friday’s ECB policy statement and cash rate release.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5953 (1.6798)
Resistance: 0.5970 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5911-0.5972 (1.6745-1.6919)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelled to a fresh 17 December low of 0.5910 (1.6920) against the Euro (EUR) Thursday but had soon reversed losses into Friday trading back at 0.5970 (1.6750). With a lack of data markets have been focused on the signing of the phase one trade deal between China and the US, which was mostly priced into currencies. The ECB minutes are released tonight from the December 13 monetary policy meeting. Increased optimism since then may play a part although negative interest rates impact concerns will still be weighing heavily for a while. Price should drift into next Friday’s ECB cash rate release.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5957 EURNZD 1.6786
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5910- 0.5978 EURNZD 1.6726- 1.6919

2019 price points… open 0.5925 (1.6875), close 0.6000 (1.6670), high 0.6140 (1.6288), low 0.5650 (1.7695).
After losing ground to the Euro early in the year down to 0.5930 (1.6860) the New Zealand Dollar bounced back late last week to 0.5975 (1.6730) before underperforming into Tuesday back to 0.5950 (1.6800) Geopolitical tensions between the US and the Middle East have plenty to blame for the NZD weakness this year so far- expect a long road for the kiwi before we see price in this pair back above 0.6000 (1.6660)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5946 (0.6271)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5929-0.5991 (1.6691-1.6886)

Overnight saw more positive comments out of the ECB , with new head Christine Lagarde cautiously optimistic, commenting that the EU is heading for slow and steady economic recovery. She sees risks are skewed to the downside but less pronounced than before. These comments saw the EUR track higher across the board with the NZD/EUR cross back at 0.5880 low. It is now trading back around the 0.5925 level as the increase in risk sentiment has helped the NZD …should hold around these levels heading into the weekend although the UK election result will have some influence on EUR values. Support 0.5850-resistance 0.6040.
The NZD/EUR cross has seen the NZD down from a 4 month high of 0.5938 now around 0.5915. With the RBNZ on hold and better fundamental data from NZ the NZD should hold current levels with potential to trade back into the 0.5940-0.5990 level , but be wary of any fallout from a breakdown in the Sino/US trade talks as any increase in risk aversion will hurt the NZD more than the EUR.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5912 EURNZD 1.6914
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5882- 0.5939 EURNZD 1.6837- 1.700

Overnight saw more positive comments out of the ECB , with new head Christine Lagarde cautiously optimistic, commenting that the EU is heading for slow and steady economic recovery. She sees risks are skewed to the downside but less pronounced than before. These comments saw the EUR track higher across the board with the NZD/EUR cross back at 0.5880 low. It is now trading back around the 0.5925 level as the increase in risk sentiment has helped the NZD …should hold around these levels heading into the weekend although the UK election result will have some influence on EUR values. Support 0.5850-resistance 0.6040.
The NZD/EUR cross has seen the NZD down from a 4 month high of 0.5938 now around 0.5915. With the RBNZ on hold and better fundamental data from NZ the NZD should hold current levels with potential to trade back into the 0.5940-0.5990 level , but be wary of any fallout from a breakdown in the Sino/US trade talks as any increase in risk aversion will hurt the NZD more than the EUR.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5912 EURNZD 1.6914
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5882- 0.5939 EURNZD 1.6837- 1.700

The ECB will provide guidance for this cross after its Thursday meeting , the first with Christine Lagarde as President…no rate change is expected but expect continuation of current loose monetary policy with comments that countries must do more individually to spur growth. The NZD/EUR cross has seen the NZD down from a 4 month high of 0.5938 now around 0.5915. With the RBNZ on hold and better fundamental data from NZ the kiwi should hold current levels with potential to trade back into the 0.5940-0.5990 level , but be wary of any fallout from a breakdown in the Sino/US trade talks as any increase in risk  aversion will hurt the NZD more than the EUR.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5914 (1.6909)
Resistance: 0.5950 (1.7000)
Support: 0.5880 (1.6800)
Last weeks Range: 0.5830-0.5950 (1.6808-1.7145)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended its run against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5915 (1.6900) as the Euro underperforms for the fourth week. German political uncertainty is still a worry with prospects of a snap election increasing. Spanish manufacturing printed higher than expectation at 47.5 from the 46.5 we were expecting but failed to bolster buyers into the EUR. The Euro is trading well below the 100 day moving average and has dropped below the yearly open price of 0.5900 (1.6950) this week. Next week’s attention is with the ECB cash rate announcement and statement.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5890 EURNZD 1.6977
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5831- 0.5921 EURNZD 1.6887- 1.7149

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its three week run against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5880 (1.7000) Monday on improved risk. The Euro continues to come under pressure from German political uncertainty as the prospects of a snap election increases. Spanish manufacturing printed higher than expectation at 47.5 from the 46.5 we were expecting but failed to bolster buyers into the EUR. Instead markets have focused on early Monday positive Chinese Manufacturing data which had the markets in a flutter. Also of note – the US is considering higher tariffs after a (WTO) World Trade Organisation ruling. The WTO found that the EU launched aid to Airbus caused adverse effects which in turn cost US firms significant lost profit. The pair is trading at a 16 month high currently a reversal from the mid October low of 0.5650 (1.7700) and looks to target resistance around 0.5900 (1.6960) Buyers shouldn’t wait for 0.6000 these represent very favourable buying of EUR.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5869 (1.7155)
Resistance: 0.5880 (1.7270)
Support: 0.5790 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5818-0.5884 (1.6994-1.7188)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained support over the week against the Euro (EUR) rising to 0.5840 (1.7120), continuing its bullish rally from mid October’s 0.5650 (1.7690). NZ Retail Sales and ANZ Business Confidence gave the kiwi a boost but the kiwi failed to kick on through early September’s 0.5845 (1.7110). German prelim CPI for October is expected to decline by 0.8% against forecast of 0.7% weighed on the EUR into Friday. Next week’s calendar looks bare, price should hover around current levels through to the weekly close with US Thanksgiving holiday creating thin markets.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5828 EURNZD 1.7158
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5810- 0.5844 EURNZD 1.7111- 1.7210

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced into positive territory Tuesday after a slow start to the week against the Euro (EUR). Trading higher to 0.5830 (1.7160) as NZ Retail Sales printed, the kiwi is back in the game extending its grip on last week’s gains. Retail Sales was a lot stronger for the third quarter supporting the view that the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than sliding. Last week’s German and French Manufacturing and Services PMI came in mixed putting added pressure on the Euro. Attention diverts to ANZ Business Confidence Thursday. A break through 0.5850 (1.7100) will be hard to crack.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5823 (1.7173)
Resistance: 0.5840 (1.7370)
Support: 0.5760 (1.7120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5765-0.5842 (1.7118-1.7345)

After the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied to a fresh 12 September high of 0.5835 (1.7440) last week against the Euro (EUR) the Euro has pulled back losses to trade at 0.5765 (1.7350) midweek. Risk factors supported the EUR in the later stages of Thursday with price travelling to 0.5800 (1.7230). A report out from the ECB said- low interest rates are supporting the overall economy and having the effect of encouraging risk which could create financial instability- a little strange, given the Eurozone is not yet showing significant signs of recession. The bullish channel from 0.5660 (1.7660) is still in place with expectations of a retest of 0.5835 (1.7140) over coming days.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5786 EURNZD 1.7283
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5765- 0.5810 EURNZD 1.7210- 1.7346

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied to a fresh 12 September high last week of 0.5835 (1.7140) against the Euro (EUR) before losing most of the gains to supportive German GDP numbers. From Wednesday price drifted lower through to the close of the week to 0.5795 (1.7260) where it has continued into Tuesday to 0.5780 (1.7305) Looking forward we have Eurozone PMI which will tell us if growth is heading for a contraction in the fourth quarter and minutes of the October 25th ECB meeting. Support on the downside for the kiwi remains at 0.5740 (1.7430) with risk sentiment the key to holding this level.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5775 (1.7316)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7230)
Support: 0.5800 (1.7150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5735-0.5837 (1.7132-1.7436)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied off 0.5750 (1.7400) levels to 0.5835 (1.7140) against the Euro (EUR) Wednesday after the RBNZ left rates unchanged. In a surprise move governor Orr left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0%. Market consensus was for a cut to 0.75% but Orr wants the recent 50 point cut from August to filter through into the economy before acting again. German economic sentiment posted a better than expected reading with investor mood towards the outlook improving. Following this was German preliminary 3rd quarter GBP which has printed at 0.1% instead of -0.1% analysts were predicting. This news comes as a relief that Germany has avoided slipping into recession. Post release the kiwi gave back gains retracing to 0.5780 (1.7300) Friday. A little risk off sentiment has also helped the EUR gain back losses as trade uncertainty weighs heavily on risk currencies.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5784 EURNZD 1.7289
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5735- 0.5834 EURNZD 1.7140- 1.7435

Early Monday we have seen a chunk of Euro (EUR) selling against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5770 (1.7320) as several factors continue to weigh on the EUR. Eurozone inflation downgrades and easing German industrial production along with the view that Germany could slip into technical recession when GDP is released Thursday continues to drag down the EUR. Locally we have the RBNZ cash rate announcement and monetary policy tomorrow with expectations of a cut to 0.75%. This won’t all be priced in, as not all are forecasting a cut, so we could see a pullback towards the open at 0.5740 (1.7430) especially if governor Orr is particularly pessimistic.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5766 (1.7340)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.7420)
Support: 0.5740 (1.7310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5735-0.5780 (1.7301-1.7436)

A choppy week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair kept price pivoting off the opening price of 0.5760 (1.7360). With both currencies coming under pressure this week with NZ Jobs data and ECB’s Holzmann saying monetary policy has done its dash and it’s now time to bring in fiscal stimulus to boost growth. Christine Lagarde gave her first speech as the President of the European Union this week with nothing coming from it regarding any such shifts to monetary policy. With the NZ unemployment rate jumping from 3.9% to 4.2% we expect the RBNZ to cut rates 25 basis points to 0.75% with price to possibly retest the lower range band of 0.5680 (1.7600)

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5761 EURNZD 1.7358
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5739- 0.5789 EURNZD 1.7273- 1.7424

Early week support at 0.5790 (1.7280) held for the Euro (EUR) brushing off further declines against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovering during late NY session to 0.5750 (1.7380). Markets await Christine Lagarde’s first speech this week as the new president of the European Central Bank president but recent speak by US trade officials regarding the possibility of not imposing tariffs on auto importers has kept the EUR bid into Tuesday. Tomorrow’s NZ employment release is expected to show a rise in the number of employed at 0.2% for September but the unemployment rate could spike to 4.1% sending the kiwi lower. A daily close above 0.5740 (1.7420) should highlight further downside bias for the kiwi confirmed by the 50 day moving average.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5750 (1.7390)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.7460)
Support: 0.5730 (1.7300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5706-0.5789 (1.7275-1.7516)

The Euro extended its price on the weekly open to 0.5710 (1.7515) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) midweek but gave back gains into Friday travelling to 0.5765 (1.7350). The incoming ECB President Lagarde said “economic growth was fragile and precarious” and hit out at Germany and the Netherlands to use their budget surpluses to find investments that could ultimately help stimulate the EU economy. She followed up by saying there’s not enough “solidarity” in the single currency. Meanwhile the German finance minister said tax revenues should remain reasonably robust, even with a slowing economy. Germany is on the verge of a technical recession so let’s see how that goes. Next week on the docket is NZ employment numbers, we expect a retest of 0.5775 (1.7320) if the release is favourable.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5744 EURNZD 1.7410
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5709- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7333- 1.7515

With a lack of any meaningful economic news locally this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its run higher from last week’s 0.5650 (1.7690) low against the Euro (EUR) to clear a new three week high of 0.5775 (1.7320) before price softened back to 0.5750 (1.7400) Friday. In Draghi’s last ECB meeting before departing as President of the European Central Bank he has kept monetary policy unchanged. Weakness in Eurozone growth and inflation pressures, citing Germany as a very real concern they could fall into recession were among his comments. The ECB stand ready with their September QE monetary stimulus package which should alleviate downside inflation pressures and easing borrowing conditions for consumers and businesses. On the data front this week French PMI and manufacturing data turned in a positive result but Germany was a different story with manufacturing in particular stagnating in the fourth quarter with the Index at alarming levels. Price looks capped at 0.5780 (1.7300) resistance with expectations the kiwi could make another run down towards 0.5815 (1.7200) in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5742 EURNZD 1.7415
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5714- 0.5774 EURNZD 1.7318- 1.7501

Risk markets continue to push the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher against the Euro (EUR) into Tuesday continuing the rally off last week’s low of 0.5650 (1.7700). This week’s attention is with the ECB’s rate announcement and policy statement Friday, the outgoing ECB chief Draghi has said the central bank is ready to change policy related instruments if needed. German finance minister Scholz has been on the wires saying that Germany’s economic situation doesn’t require a rushed fiscal change, expecting growth momentum to continue into the end of the year. Resistance is viewed at 0.5760 (1.7360) if the positive risk mood continues we could retest this area
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5751 (1.7388)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7550)
Support: 0.5700 (1.7340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5650-0.5752 (1.7384-1.7699)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) received some relief from the slide to 0.5660 (1.7680) Wednesday against the Euro (EUR) after quarterly CPI printed up on expectations. At 0.7% this was slightly above the 0.6% forecast for third quarter inflation taking the kiwi off the October 2018 low towards 0.5710 (1.7520) Friday. Huge support is close at 0.5590 (1.7900) but if Brexit and general risk improve over the next few weeks, we are more likely to see a retest of the 0.5790 (1.7270) level.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5715 EURNZD 1.7498
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5650- 0.5742 EURNZD 1.7414- 1.7698

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) traded predominantly sideways for most of last week pivoting around the 0.5750 (1.7400) area. We have seen very little economic releases published in this cross over the past two weeks highlighting a lack of any real direction. The main topic of debate has been opposed ECB QE package by a number of ECB members of which some pointed out the new QE stimulus should be a last resort instrument with some arguing that a better solution would have been a 20 point cut to rates with no QE. This week we have NZ CPI q/q Wednesday. Trading Tuesday around 0.5710 (1.7520) we would need to see a daily close below 0.5700 (1.7550) to break further downside momentum.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5710 (1.7513)
Resistance: 0.5757 (1.7550)
Support: 0.5700 (1.7370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5696-0.5761 (1.7357-1.7556)

The NZD/EUR cross continues to mark time trading within the 0.5700 level. Last night saw a range of 0.5715/0.5786 with this cross now trading around the 0.5741 level …Continued easing bias by the ECB erodes EUR strength but the RBNZ easing tone is also weighing on any sustained NZD strength…Look for the current 0.5700/0.5800 range to be maintained into next week as the market seeks some clear direction.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5736 EURNZD 1.7433
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5715- 0.5762 EURNZD 1.7354- 1.7496

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has bounced around in a choppy market this week against the Euro (EUR) trading around the weekly open of 0.5740 (1.7430). Early week ANZ Business confidence published down at -53.5 the lowest confidence number we have seen in over a decade. NZIER Business Confidence was also poor with a net 35% of businesses surveyed expect a worsening NZ economic outlook. Eurozone annual inflation is expected to be at 0.9% in September, lower than the August 1.0% according to estimates making it the lowest inflation rate since November 2016. Price movement continues to suit the EUR with a possible retest of 0.5680 (1.7600) the recent daily low.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5746 EURNZD 1.7403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5697- 0.5787 EURNZD 1.7365- 1.7551

Choppy conditions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair continue into Tuesday with the cross bouncing around 0.5750 (1.7400) levels. German preliminary consumer prices printed at 0.0% for September with the final release on October 11 to come in at 0.9% year on year. ANZ Business confidence published down at -53.5 the lowest confidence number we shave seen in over a decade. NZIER Business Confidence was also poor with a net 35% of businesses surveyed expect a worsening NZ economic outlook. Downside bias remains in the pair and a reasonable likelihood we could see price drop back to last week’s long term low of 0.5680 (1.7600) soon

Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.5743 (1.7412)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5688 (1.7310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5713-0.5781 (1.7298-1.7505)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its quest higher this week against the Euro (EUR) after bouncing off the low of 0.5675 (1.7615) to trade around 0.5775 (1.7320) Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. The result was priced into expectations after the RBNZ surprised markets at their & August outing by cutting 50 points. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. 0.5880 (1.7000) still holds as resistance if momentum continues for the kiwi. Monday’s ANZ Business Confidence holds interest locally while German monthly CPI also prints Monday ahead of NZIER Business Confidence Tuesday.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5764 EURNZD 1.7349
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5681- 0.5781 EURNZD 1.7297- 1.7602

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) turned sharply higher from the October 2018 low of 0.5680 (1.7600), against the Euro (EUR) at the weekly open to 0.5730 (1.7460), as risk markets relaxed and equity prices traded back in positive territory. It was a sea of red overnight Monday with French and German Manufacturing figures and Services PMI coming in weaker than expected as well as the Eurozone PMI for September printing at 45.6, a six year low. Also putting the Euro on the back foot was Draghi speaking in Brussels where he admitted that the Eurozone is unlikely to recover in the medium term. Looking ahead we have Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement. The RBNZ are unlikely to cut rates this time after aggressively cutting 50 points on August 7th. The kiwi should meet resistance around 0.5880 (1.7000) on the return higher.
Exchange Rates
Current Level:0.5721 (1.7479)
Resistance: 0.5760 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5680 (1.7370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5677-0.5772 (1.7324-1.7615)

This week’s main even in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross has been NZ quarterly GDP. Figures showed an improvement to June quarter growth – up 0.5% from 0.4% expected but slightly down on the March quarter of 0.6%. Markets strangely ignored the data choosing to sell NZD into Friday down to 0.5700 (1.7550). This week’s GDT auction produced a better than expected result which was also bought no change to price. Instead markets seem to be concerned over the Fed’ hawkish cut which weighed on sentiment. Next week’s RBNZ official cash rate is announced Wednesday at 2pm and will be the focus next week. 0.5690 (1.7570) is the next long term support area on the chart, a break through here on the daily close could represent much further declines for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5687 EURNZD 1.7583
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5690- 0.5782 EURNZD 1.7294- 1.7574

The Euro (EUR) continued its run against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Tuesday to 0.5760 (1.7360) after a brief slump off the weekly open to 0.5780 (1.7300). After the ECB announced further QE last week starting as soon as November, support in the EUR has been evident, perhaps as several ECB members who have voiced their displeasure of the QE package by speaking out that it was a mistake. Relief for the EUR is also coming from talk of fiscal stimulus out of Germany. Movement in the cross this week could favour the EUR, tonight’s German economic sentiment will certainly give us further clues prior to Thursday’s NZ GDP q/q. 0.5685 (1.7590) represents the 112-monthlow in the cross, sellers of EUR should take note and not get overly greedy.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5756 (1.7373)
Resistance: 0.5790 (1.7590)
Support: 0.5685 (1.7270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5752-0.5882 (1.7002-1.7386)

Large fluctuations were seen during overnight trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair on the ECB announcement. Price initially rallied to 0.5885 (1.7000) before retracting to 0.5800 (1.7270) where it currently lies. As expected, the ECB unveiled new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone including cutting the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The main interest rate remains at zero. The meeting confirmed the restart of fresh quantitative easing in the form of 20B EUR every month starting on the 1st of November 2019. This move comes as a direct reflection on the status of not only poor economic health in the Eurozone but global uncertainty. Next week’s quarterly GDP is the only significant economic data to release Thursday. Sellers of EUR should consider these levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5785 EURNZD 1.7286
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5784- 0.5882 EURNZD 1.7000- 1.7289

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is lower off Monday’s open against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5815 (1.7200) levels bucking the trend amid a risk on market. The Euro has firmed on the news that the German government could review their budget to provide tax relief to the economy. Focus this week is firmly on the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. The ECB haven’t got much choice with inflation expectations not likely to improve any time soon. Price in the cross will bounce around current levels through to Thursday’s ECB meeting.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5822 (1.7176)
Resistance:0.5885 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5680 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5736-0.5841 (1.7120-1.7435)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to gain on the Euro (EUR) this week as risk markets improved and poor Eurozone data continues to pull on the EUR. Price Friday reached 0.5780 (1.7300) after bouncing off recent monthly support at 0.5695 (1.7570) Next week we have the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. A cut to -0.50% is priced in as well. The ECB haven’t got much choice as the inflation isn’t likely to pick up any time soon, especially given the state of the Eurozone and more importantly the world economic outlook. We note that price has moved above the 100 day moving average at 0.5760 (1.7370) suggesting we may see further upside for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5777 EURNZD 1.7310
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5724- 0.5786 EURNZD 1.7281- 1.7470

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off Friday’s daily close of 0.5710 (1.7510) to push higher to 0.5750 (1.7390) off Monday’s open in the wake or poor eurozone (EUR) data. A light economic docket this week should keep the pair in recent ranges through to Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll print. We have seen some weakness develop in EUR with the shaky Italian coalition alliance to be formed by Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte. Even Trump has made comment it’s unfair to see such a weak EUR. The kiwi may get pushed along this week by Australian data releases, we expect the fortnight high of 0.5800 (1.7250) to come into view.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5746 (1.7403)
Resistance: 0.5815 (1.7575)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5694-0.5763 (1.7353-1.7573)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted further declines against the Euro (EUR) this week retesting the yearly low of 0.5690 (1.7570). Poor ANZ Business confidence figures showed optimism fell to -52.3 from the predicted -44.3 down 8 points with businesses expecting conditions to worsen over the coming year, the lowest since 2008. German inflation figures for August shrank to -0.2% from -0.1% expected failing to shift EUR momentum away. 0.5815 (1.7200) is seen as heavy resistance leading into a quiet week of economic data in the pair.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5695 EURNZD 1.7559
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5690- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7332- 1.7572

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) declined further Monday versus the Euro (EUR) extending last week’s losses to 0.5685 (1.7590) as risk currencies took a back seat to another round of risk aversion. NZ Retail Sales posted a good result coming in higher than expectations at 0.2% for the June quarter but failed to spark any NZD momentum with markets spooked by increasing trade war uncertainties as Trump and Chinese officials go head to head again. Euro manufacturing improved but overall we see the Eurozone possibly drifting into recession by fourth quarter 2019. For now the focus this week is on ANZ Business confidence and German prelim monthly CPI Thursday. The kiwi must get past 0.5790 (1.7270) if it is to regain prior week losses.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5750 (1.7392)
Resistance: 0.5790 (1.7570)
Support: 0.5695 (1.7270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5685-0.5800 (1.7240-1.7591)

Broad based New Zealand dollar (NZD) weakness has contributed to the decline seen in this pair over the past week. The only data of note from New Zealand will be this mornings retails sales data out in an hour or so. The market is looking for a small gain of 0.1%. On the Euro (EUR) side of the equation we have seen some small improvements in manufacturing and service PMI’s but it hasn’t been enough to change the overall outlook for the European economy which looks set to struggle over the coming quarters. For now, the focus remains on the downside for the pair with a test of near term support at 0.5720 (1.7483) likely in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5746 EURNZD 1.7403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5742 – 0.5814 EURNZD 1.7200 – 1.7416

Action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair has pooled around the 0.5780 (1.7300) over the past week after four straight weeks of NZD declines. Eurozone Trade Balance disappointed after the surplus was eroded to 17.9B and German GDP increased the chances of Germany slipping into a recession if third quarter GDP doesn’t improve. Thursday’s manufacturing data for France and Germany will be key the key focus along with NZ retail Sales Friday. Those looking to sell EUR should consider these attractive levels. Expect volatility heading towards the end of the week with the Jackson Hole Symposium starting in Wyoming Thursday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5781 (0.6335)
Resistance: 0.5815 (1.7450)
Support: 0.5730 (1.7200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5723-0.5814 (1.7200-1.7472)

Risk averse markets favoured the Euro (EUR) earlier this week with price climbing to 0.5720 (1.7480) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). However, a contraction in second quarter German GDP had investors selling the EUR after printing at -0.1%, but the economy grew by 0.4% compared to the same quarter in 2018. The figures follow an upside surprise of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 showing the economy is still growing over the first half of the year- Just. These weak figures could suggest we may see a contraction in the third quarter which would put Germany in a recession. French and German manufacturing prints next week
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5792 EURNZD 1.7265
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5723- 0.5813 EURNZD 1.7202- 1.7473

Risk averse market sentiment is driving price action across the board with the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair no exception. Last week the EUR extended its run north to 0.5690 (1.7575) after the surprising RBNZ rate cut to 1.0%, but later reversed back to 0.5810 (1.7215) German economic sentiment prints tonight and could follow the trend of the past three months showing deteriorating economic health. The “risk on” mood should suit the Euro this week as the US/China trade standoff rages on.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5753 (1.7382)
Resistance: 0.5815 (1.7580)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5702-0.5867 (1.7044-1.7537)

The Euro (EUR) extended its run north against a weakened New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Wednesday to 0.5690 (1.7575) after markets were caught out by the RBNZ announcement.
The RBNZ surprised markets by dropping the official cash rate to 1.0% from 1.5% in a move where markets were expecting only a 25 basis point shift lower to 1.25%. It was an unbelievable decision given the only time the RBNZ has cut rates by 50 points in the past was after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and post 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. It’s unlikely we will see further cuts now for a while, possibly November taking it down to 0.75%. The NZD has regained losses Friday to trade back around 0.5795 (1.7260) area. Anyone selling EUR now proposes attractive selling of NZDEUR.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5793 EURNZD 1.7262
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5689- 0.5878 EURNZD 1.7012- 1.7575

The Euro (EUR) extended its run north against a weakened New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Monday to 0.5830 (1.7150) after markets turned risk averse Friday, investors exiting from risk currencies such as the kiwi. Over recent weeks the NZD has all but given back what was an impressive recovery. But with downside pressures from a dovish RBNZ along with last week’s less than dovish ECB price has supported the EUR. Nothing this week on the eurozone calendar lends us to focus on today’s NZ employment figures and quarterly inflation expectations before tomorrow’s RBNZ’s official cash rate decision. Its widely viewed that governor Lowe will cut rates from 1.5% to 1.25% with further easing in the coming months. In news just released the NZ unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in the June quarter down from market expectations of 4.2% in the March quarter. With the fall in the unemployment rate this has reflected in 9,000 people being added to the NZ workforce bringing the total number of unemployed to 109,000 in NZ. Price reversed to 0.5875 (1.7020) before returning to 0.5835 (1.7140) around lunch.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5842 (1.7117)
Resistance: 0.5885 (1.7270)
Support: 0.5790 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5806-0.5955 (1.6794-17224)

The Euro (EUR) has extended recent moves higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.5910 (1.6920) Friday morning. Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy continues to support the EUR this week. ANZ Business Confidence for July showed a deterioration in sentiment buy firms highlighting an even more pessimistic opinions from the previous month as outlook for growth and employment intentions weigh heavy. GDP in the eurozone continues to grow but not fast enough to meet the ECB’s target of around 1.0%. The ECB will ease policy again at the September meeting. Given the strong rebound in the Euro sellers of EUR should consider current levels around 0.5900 (1.6960)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5911 EURNZD 1.6917
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5907- 0.5952 EURNZD 1.6801- 1.6928

The Euro (EUR) has continued where it left off last week pushing higher against the weakened New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5950 (1.6800) levels Tuesday morning. Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy saw a lift in the EUR which continues into this week. ANZ Business Confidence prints tomorrow the only significant item on the calendar this week. EU Flash CPI y/y figures will release Wednesday night and show a drop to around 1.0% from the 1.2% currently. A retest of resistance at 0.5900 (1.6960) is possible this week if price trend continues.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5950 (1.6806)
Resistance: 0.6050 (1.7000)
Support: 0.5880 (1.6520)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5944-0.6038 (1.6563-1.5824)

Heavy volumes in the Euro (EUR) saw large swings in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross during the European trading session overnight with the ECB announcement interest rates would remain at record lows for now or at least until early 2020. Price initially rose to 0.6030 (1.6575) then a “no-cut” to rates sent positivity through markets sending the EUR to 0.5970 (1.6750) Draghi stopped short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. He went on to say they were researching possibilities of further QE with TLTROs in the picture. A further clean break lower to 0.5940 (1.6830) would indicate a broader trend lower and could spell trouble for the kiwi.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5968 EURNZD 1.0675
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5968- 0.6051 EURNZD 1.6526- 1.6754

The NZDEUR has spent the past week relentlessly grinding higher, trading to a fresh cycle high of 0.6050 overnight. There are however some tentative signs that this rally is growing tired and the pair may well now struggle to make significant further gains in the near term. A period of consolidation, or an outright correction lower, could easily develop in the coming days. New Zealand dollar (NZD) outperformance has been a theme against many other currencies over the past week, and it’s hard to point to any particular individual driver. On the Euro (EUR) side of the equation, the single currency has been hampered by speculation about potential new stimulus measures to be announced at this week’s ECB meeting. That meeting will be the primary focus for the market and it will drive the pair over the latter stage of this week. Ahead of that meeting we do have a raft of PMI’s from Europe to digest along with NZ Trade Balance data.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6015 (1.6625)
Resistance: 0.6090 (1.6807)
Support: 0.5950 (1.6420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5964-0.6050 (1.6528-1.6767)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has had a strong week against most other currencies, and the Euro (EUR) is no exception. The pair has seen relentless gains and traded to a cycle high of 0.6023 overnight. Initial resistance is seen around 0.6050 and it looks like that could be tested in the coming days. Any break above that level would open the way for a move to 0.6130. At this stage there is little to suggest the rally has run out of steam, so the focus remains on the topside and further potential gains. Locally next week we just have the trade balance to digest, while from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6016 EURNZD 1.6622
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5918 – 0.6023 EURNZD 1.6604 – 1.6898

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has completely outperformed the Euro (EUR) over the past week, driven higher by dovish comments from US Fed Chair Powell and then boosted further by yesterday’s solid Chinese activity data. The pair has traded to a high of 0.5976 so far and there is nothing to suggest the rally is done yet. There is some resistance around 0.5690 the market will have to overcome however before it can even think about the longer term target of 0.6050. Downside support is now seen around 0.5900.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5969 (1.6754)
Resistance: 0.6050 (1.6529)
Support:0.5900 (1.6529)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5864-0.5976 (1.6734-1.7053)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) heads into the closing stages of this week trading close to where it opened the week against the Euro (EUR), just above 0.5900. We did see a period of relative NZD weakness in the first half of the week, with the pair having a quick flurry down to a low of 0.5864, before staging a sharp recovery, but since then the NZD has had the edge over the EUR with the pair looking like it might retest the recent high of 0.5954. The economic calendar is a little light from Europe next week with only second tier data set for release, while from NZ we have inflation data to digest. Look for further ranging between 0.5840 and 0.5960 over the coming week.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5915 EURNZD 1.6906
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5864 – 0.5933 EURNZD 1.6855 – 1.7053

Starting in late June, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has significantly outperformed the Euro (EUR) driving the cross rate to a high of 0.5954 mid last week. Since then however we have seen a correction back toward the 0.5900 area where the pair currently trades. This correction has largely been driven by weakness in the NZD, and while we may see the NZD lose some further ground, we are not expecting the pair to head back to the 0.5800 area where it was trading in mid-June. There is in fact solid support around the 0.5840 level and we believe that will contain any potential periods of NZDEUR weakness over the coming days. We may well see the pair range between the parameters of 0.5840 and 0.5960 over the coming week or two.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5904 (1.6937)
Resistance: 0.5955 (1.7123)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6793)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5888-0.5954 (1.6795-1.6985)