NZD to AUD

Further New Zealand Dollar (NZD) energy sent the kiwi to 0.9380 this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD), the Aussie early December run down to 0.9260 (1.0800) well and truly over, the momentum swing reversing last week back in favour of the charging NZD. The RBNZ signalling a more hawkish tone yesterday by saying they expect the cash rate to increase at a faster clip than expected raising the cash rate to 1.0%. Predictions are for a further hike of 50 points increase in the May meeting. Looking ahead, we have the RBA meeting Tuesday. Predictions are for a retest of the mid Jan level of 0.9450 (1.0580)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9369 (1.0668)
Resistance: 0.9400 (1.0800)
Support: 0.9260 (1.0640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9263-0.9346 (1.0699-1.0795)

Our predictions of the Australian Dollar (AUD) run coming to an end came to fruition midweek reversing off recent lows around 0.9260 (1.0800) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the Aussie losing its grip, the cross falling back to 1.0730 (0.9320) into Friday sessions. The long term trend line remains in place with a reversal signal needed at 0.9345 (1.0700) to confirm an overbought AUD and a new rally for the kiwi. Aussie employment data turned in benign with just 12,900 new jobs added to the workforce in January and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. As we edge closer to next week’s 25-50 point RBNZ rate hike we may see a little more of a push from the kiwi.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9306 AUDNZD 1.0735
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9262- 0.9327 AUDNZD 1.0721- 1.0796

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for a 5th straight week extending moves from the bull rally at 1.0320 (0.9690) to today’s 1.0770 (0.9285). Iron Ore prices took a mild turn at the end of the week to 137.50 correlating to the short sell in the AUD, prices however were back at 145.50 today- the highest level in 5 months, the Aussie recovering well off the back. A return of demand in the product as construction projects in China were back underway after China regulators reported unusual price move warnings spooking markets. Australian employment data Wednesday is our focus with predictions of the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. While the AUD runs rampant AUD sellers should consider with expectations this run of form won’t last.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.9276 (1.0772)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.0920)
Support: 0.9160 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9285-0.9363 (1.0680-1.0770)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been fully in charge again this week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off the weekly open from 0.9355 (1.0690), taking price to 0.9300 (1.0750) at midday today. Over the course of the prior 4 weeks of movement the predominant chart pattern has been a series of lower highs and lower lows. A breakthrough of the previous low at 0.9290 (1.0760) looks the most likely scenario and a continuation of the trend from early December’s 0.9660 (1.0350). However, 0.9260 (1.0800) displays massive long-term support which we expect to hold. The economic docket this week is thin in the pair with attention on NZ inflation expectations q/q later today which could inflate the NZD a touch.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.9298 (1.0748)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.0800)
Support: 0.9260 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9285-0.9365 (1.0676-1.0770)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be undermined by a favoured Australian Dollar (AUD) of late with price back at 0.9285 (1.0770) midweek a June 2021 low. The NZD has fallen 9 out of the last 10 weeks from the high of 0.9690 (1.0320) If we correlate this move with iron ore prices we see that mid November’s ore price came off a low of 85.50 to today’s 143.50. The global construction boom and the steel demand in China has a lot to do with it. The RBA signalled they would leave interest rates unchanged this year but will end their Bond buying program with the Australian economy expected to grow by 4.25% this year. The kiwi received some relief after the NZ Unemployment Rate published at 3.2% down from 3.4%. We think the broader picture shows a possible correction in the NZD and a rebound to 0.9435 (1.0600) in the near term in these oversold conditions.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9329 AUDNZD 1.0713
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9285- 0.9390 AUDNZD 1.0649- 1.0770

The 2022 high in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) is 0.9460 (1.0575) to date with most of the action favouring the Aussie reaching 0.9345 (1.0700) this morning the mid July 2021 low. Iron ore prices have contributed to the recent return of form for the AUD coming off 83 per tonne in mid-November to 130 today. Tighter Chinese monetary policy has been promised by the PBOC brightened the outlook for the raw material’s demand. Support for the AUD may come to an end tomorrow when NZ q/q CPI is announced. Predictions are for a 1.3% climb q/q and a shift to above 5.5% y/y based on supply chain woes and an increased lack of available workers. This being said NZ omicron variant infections continue to increase from the first case a few days back which could sabotage any toppish moves by the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.9340 (1.0692)
Resistance: 0.9390 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9334-0.9454 (1.0577-1.0713)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to outperform the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as RBNZ rate hike projections were recently scaled back and Australian resources continue to climb. It’s still predicted the central bank will raise rates to 2.5% by the end of 2023 previously this as 2.0% but with global risks now centred around the rise of the omicron variant this has been in question. Coal, Natural Gas, Crude Oil are all trading higher of late, Iron Ore in particular has shot up from 85.00 a ton to today’s 118.00 per ton at the same time in November and clearly is underpinning the rise of the AUD. Data publications are thin at this time of year so fluctuations in prices and crazy swings are common. We don’t predict the pair to trade through 0.9435 (1.0600) and the kiwi to recover recent losses.

Technically speaking the Australian Dollar will struggle to crack the 0.9430 (1.0600) zone, the massive extended forecast support level. This week it has bounced off this level twice but failed to break past this key point. Aussie jobs numbers were extremely good with 366,000 people entering the workforce in November. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 5.2% to 4.6% confirming the labour force is better than pre covid employment. 4.6% is the lowest unemployment rate since December 2008. It’s worth noting that iron ore has bounced off the mid 80’s low of late and trades this morning at 108.50 as demand for ore in Chinese steel production ramps up at this time of year and is underpinning the AUD to a point.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9494 AUDNZD 1.0559
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9436- 0.9510 AUDNZD 1.0515- 1.0597

The ongoing tussle between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) carried through into Monday with the Aussie hitting back and regaining most of last week’s losses to 0.9590 (1.0430). The midpoint over the last 7 weeks has been around 0.9600 (1.0420) levels with no real trend developing in the pair, instead each currency taking turns of support from one week to the next. Looking ahead we have the last RBA meeting for 2021 later today with predictions of a dull release and no change to the interest rate. NZD weakness looks to be capped at support of 0.9560 (1.0460) with moving average chart clues suggesting a pull back through 0.9600 possibly to 0.9615 (1.0400) in the coming sessions.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9581 (1.0434)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9525 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9527-0.9645 (1.0368-1.0496)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off 0.9525 (1.0500) early in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) staying within the nine week range of trading reaching the 0.9615 (1.0400) area early today. The iron ore price is trading around the 100 per tonne as investors fear that the recently discovered omicron variant could further hurt the global economy and scale back demand in ore. As long as the new variant is found to be less lethal as first thought we should see steel production ramp up in December in China as it usually does thus supporting the AUD. Clients who are sitting on NZD and are looking for higher NZD/AUD prices should consider moving funds at the current levels – obtaining at least 0.9550 is extremely good buying right now as targeting the tops is usually fraught with risks. If it’s a wait and see approach I would target 0.9600 no more with the view or expectation of getting 0.9400 if the topside doesn’t develop.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9609 AUDNZD 1.0401
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9527- 0.9620 AUDNZD 1.0394- 1.0496

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed up on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over recent data from the low of 1.0310 (0.9700) to 1.0500 (0.9525) late last week. Iron Ore continues to recover off lows around 84.00 per ton and the kiwi is still being tormented post the RBNZ’s less than ideal statement last week. We are seeing NZD buyer interest early Tuesday with price around 0.9550 (1.0470) as markets may be anticipating tomorrow’s Australian third quarter GDP. Expectations are for a slump in economic activity of around 3% as two thirds of the economy were locked down between July and September have taken a toll. Heavy daily support is seen technically at 0.9535 (1.0485) we would be surprised if this area is broken.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9544 (1.0470)
Resistance: 0.9694 (1.0560)
Support: 0.9470 (1.0315)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9509-0.9692 (1.0317-1.0516)

The iron ore rebound off recent lows has boosted the AUD this week amid a less than hawkish RBNZ. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been under pressure post the RBNZ statement and rate hike Wednesday. The central bank hiked rates 0.25% to 0.75% the second time in two months but markets have viewed this as less than hawkish. We saw a 40% chance of a 50 point hike taking place; it seems market analysts have been disappointed. The cross was trading at 0.9695 (1.0315) at the start of the week and has bottomed out at 0.9525 (1.0500) in early Friday trading, the biggest weekly shift since September. Next week’s key data is quarterly Aussie GDP- we expect the release to put pressure on the AUD
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9540 AUDNZD 1.0479
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9522- 0.9692 AUDNZD 1.0317- 1.0501

The iron ore rebound has reversed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross from its closing price of 0.9680 (1.0330) to 0.9615 (1.0400) into early Tuesday sessions. The pair is not yet ready to retest the yearly high of 0.9730 (1.0280) and the Feb 2020 level. This week’s key release is the RBNZ cash rate and policy statement. The RBNZ is widely expected to raise the cash rate off 0.50% to 0.75% possibly to 1.0% but chances are small. Any further spikes to the continued ore price rally should underpin the AUD to a point, but this week’s news should be all about the NZ central bank’s announcement and where they see the economy tracking. Still very good levels to buy AUD at historically with the average rate over the past 3 years around 0.9100.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9607 (1.0398)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9525 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9563-0.9698 (1.0311-1.0456)

Early week moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross saw price extend last week’s Aussie run to 0.9570 (1.0450) but we predicted this wouldn’t hold. Amid a dovish governor Lowe wage data is set to test his nerve over the coming months. Lowe says he needs wage rises to gain 3.0% to return inflation to the target band of 1-3% – gains were just 2.2% in the last quarter. We still think the RBA will raise rates over the following 6 months to combat a growing economy. However – for now movement has supported the kiwi and the RBNZ moves to hike. Next week’s meeting should confirm a rise of 0.25%-0.50%. Friday prices are hovering around the 7 week high at 0.9680 (1.0330) just shy of the April 2020 level at 0.9825 (1.0180).
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9670 AUDNZD 1.0331
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0310- 1.0456 AUDNZD 0.9563- 0.9699

We were surprised to see the Australian Dollar (AUD) continue its rally against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into the weekly close after such poor employment data. Tuesday’s prices are around the 0.9595 (1.0425) area after a short spell Monday to 0.9635 (1.0380) and back. We will get a closer look at RBA policy later today when the minutes release and Governor Lowe speaks. Recently Lowe said he wants to see wage growth hit 3% and stay there before thinking about raising rates. Any rate hike speculation discussion will dominate price moves in the cross as economic releases are thin. Further moves from the AUD should be limited to 0.9560 (1.0460) support, the 50% retracement of recent deviations.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9585 (1.0430)
Resistance: 0.9629 (1.0465)
Support: 0.9555 (1.0385)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9607-0.9682 (1.0328-1.0409)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) in early week trading reaching fresh highs of 0.9680 (1.0330) but in the last couple of days has strangely given back gains. Perhaps profit taking of NZD long positions, but more than likely risk related, with price back at 0.9625 (1.0390) Friday. Long term monthly resistance in the cross is not that far away at 0.9730 (1.0275), a break above here and the parity champagne might be on ice. Earlier Aussie Unemployment printed at 5.2% surging from September’s 4.6% and above consensus of 4.8%- reflecting a flood of people looking for work post recent covid lockdowns. As the RBA remains staunch on their current loose policy we could see the kiwi climb in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9623 AUDNZD 1.0383
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9614- 0.9681 AUDNZD 1.0329- 1.0401

The widening gap between the RBA and the RBNZ has been reflected in the price of the cross recently with the NZD climbing to 0.9670 (1.0340) this morning. Making things worse for the AUD was soft Retail Sales and trade data Friday. The yearly high of 0.9730 (1.0280) isn’t far away, with expectations of a 50 point hike at the 24th November RBNZ meeting we can only see things improving for the kiwi. Despite markets already pricing in most of this result we could still see markets buying the kiwi up to the release date. This week’s Aussie employment data Thursday is predicted to print at 4.8% Unemployment for October up from September’s 4.6%, this could spark some fireworks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9652 (1.0355)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0490)
Support: 0.9530 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9528-0.9628 (1.0386-1.0495)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened against the Australian Dollar (AUD) off Monday’s open to 0.9630 (1.0380) into Friday trading boosted by Tuesday’s dovish RBA statement and policy meeting. The RBA were a little more pessimistic than we were predicting- not helping the AUD with outflows fashioning setbacks with governor Lowe saying he was prepared to be patient with tightening policy and raising rates. We still believe the cash rate will be raised in 2023 over 2024 based on earlier predictions but the road may be rocky with supply chain woes set to disrupt growth forecasts. Earlier, the NZ Unemployment Rate printed at 3.4% way lower than the 3.9% expected, also raising the NZD. Purely based on the widening stance of central banks we foresee the kiwi pushing higher at least through to next week’s Aussie job numbers Thursday.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9591 AUDNZD 1.0416
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9530- 0.9628 AUDNZD 1.0386- 1.0493

Every year on the first Tuesday in November we get the RBA statement and cash rate followed 30 minutes later by the start of the Melbourne Cup. I’m not sure which one is more exciting. The RBA are predicted to be reasonably hawkish if last week’s rally in the AUD has anything to go by. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest main group currency. The RBA is set to start tapering its bond purchases of 120B per month to 105B per over the next few weeks with attention focusing on talk of the central bank bringing in its interest rate hike forecast from 2023 to 2022. NZ job numbers print tomorrow and could be an anti-climax with predictions of a slight drop from August’s 4.0% to September’s 3.9%. In the past 4 hours of trading the cross has travelled from 0.9580 (1.0440) to 0.9540 (1.0480) and looks in the driver’s seat to push on.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9535 (1.0480)
Resistance: 0.9600 (1.0520)
Support: 0.9505 (1.0420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9500-0.9587 (1.0430-1.0527)

Australian quarterly CPI advanced the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0520 (0.9505) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surprising markets. Inflation for the third quarter came in at 0.8% as predicted with the year-on-year number ticking lower from 3.1% to 3.0%. The snap buying didn’t last with the cross back at 0.9550 (1.0470) over the following trading sessions. Inflationary pressures should keep topside moves in the cross at bay along with the healthy labour market outlook expected to “shift in” the RBA interest rate forecast. With no hikes predicted until 2023 this dovish outlook could be reviewed at next week’s RBA meeting. NZ Covid cases continue to undermine the kiwi, although NZ employment numbers Wednesday, with the unemployment rate expected to tick lower could advance the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9528 AUDNZD 1.0487
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0430- 1.0518 AUDNZD 0.9507- 0.9587

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pivoted around 0.9580 (1.0440) for most of last week with the kiwi maintaining a slight edge post third quarter favourable CPI release. The trip to 0.9532 (1.0490) was short with the kiwi regaining support into the weekly close back to 0.9580 (1.0440). Trading Monday was thin with the New Zealand Labour day holiday, the Aussie finding a bit of support to 0.9530 (1.0490). Price sits bang on the 50% retracement of the move from 0.9710 (1.0300) and 0.9430 (1.0600) signalling the AUD could be considering a move higher. Australian quarter CPI will be key midweek with predictions of a rise of 0.8% ending September and a potential lift in the AUD.

Exchange Rates
Current Level:0.6169 (1.6210)
Resistance: 0.6305 (1.7120)
Support: 0.5840 (1.5860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6079-0.6187 (1.6161-1.6449)

After a small rise to 0.9580 early in the week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Australian Dollar (AUD) cross, the pair has held around this level for most of the week in an uneventful manner. NZ CPI earlier in the week boosted the kiwi marginally when this was published at 4.9% y/y. The prospects of the RBNZ raising their interest rate quicker than earlier forecast in the November meeting should keep the AUD on its toes over the coming weeks until the RBA shows its hand on future policy. We expect hikes in late 2022 to happen off its current 0.10% as inflation continues to rise. Topside moves from the kiwi could be limited in the short term as covid locally is under control and daily cases come down. This could take several weeks with daily cases in the pandemic predicted to spike in Auckland around mid-November.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0438
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9537- 0.9595 AUDNZD 1.0422- 1.0485

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended moves higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9570 (1.0450) into Tuesday sessions. This stretches the move from 0.9430 (1.0600) levels last week as the kiwi remains bid. Yesterday’s NZ quarterly inflation number came in at 2.2% vs 1.5% predicted with the year on year figure at 4.9% up from June quarter’s 3.3%. This transpires into the RBNZ considering raising rates earlier or higher than forecast with some predicting we could see the cash rate at 1.0% from 0.50% in the November policy meeting. This prospect has certainly lifted the kiwi despite covid numbers locally still high and vaccination rates slow going. Fibonacci resistance at 0.9580 (1.0440) should give the Aussie a chance to breathe – the 50% retracement of recent moves since 20 September. We have no key standouts on the schedule this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9548 (1.0465)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0610)
Support: 0.9425 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9425-0.9540 (1.0483-1.0611)

After two weeks of declines by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it finally kicked back Thursday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) from a weekly low of 0.9425 (1.0610) to 0.9500 (1.0530) early today. It was only a matter of time as we had the AUD overvalued a week ago. Australian job numbers disappointed with a further 138,000 people added to the unemployment line based on recent NSW lockdown restrictions and the Unemployment Rate ticking up to 4.6% from 4.5%. The labour force participation rate also worsened to 61.5% of the working population down from last month’s 62.2%. Overall greenback weakness from rising US inflation promoted investor NZD buying with risk markets advancing overnight. Looking ahead we have NZ CPI q/q printing next week. On the chart resistance sits topside at 0.9505 (1.0520) area and the 0.9580 (1.0440) Fibonacci retracement zone.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9480 AUDNZD 1.0540
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9425- 0.9495 AUDNZD 1.0531- 1.0610

Australasian coronavirus results highlight the story of the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross at the moment. With NSW opening up Monday and Auckland level 3 lockdown restrictions most likely not going to be relaxed for some time, the two countries seem to be diverging in the fight against the virus. The cross extended last week’s decline from 0.9590 (1.0430) levels to post 0.9440 (1.0590) this morning as the Aussie marched on. The economic schedule shows just Aussie Jobs numbers this week with predictions the Unemployment Rate could rise in September. Technically a push through 0.9425 (1.0610) could signal further momentum for the AUD but I suspect this may hold.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9437 (1.0587)
Resistance: 0.9490 (1.0640)
Support: 0.9400 (1.0540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9475-0.9587 (1.0430-1.0554)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its hustle against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching a fresh high of 1.0550 (0.9480) in early Friday. Both central banks published monetary statements with the RBA retaining its 0.10% and the RBNZ raising theirs to 0.50% from 0.25%. It’s quite baffling as to why the Aussie has outplayed the kiwi as the RBA was dovish while the RBNZ hawkish. NZ Govt coronavirus planning has not gone so well recently with the elimination program being canned. Plan B is to have everyone fully vaccinated by the end of the year. Ongoing daily increasing Auckland new covid cases has weighed down NZD buyer sentiment. However we do expect the kiwi to push back as the widening central bank monetary stance divergence making the NZD a more attractive proposition for investors. Next week we only have Aussie employment data to focus on late in the week until moves below 0.9435 (1.0600) should be limited.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9474 AUDNZD 1.0542
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9476- 0.9584 AUDNZD 1.0433- 1.0552

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been in full charge recently, the cross coming from the high at 0.9730 (1.0280) mid-September to 0.9530 (1.0490) late last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Prices recovered slightly Monday as markets soaked up an Aussie holiday to 0.9580 (1.0440) but the pair is back around the 0.9550 (1.0470) midday Tuesday. Both Central Bank excitement should give us some movement this week starting with the RBA later today then RBNZ tomorrow. No changes are predicted from the RBA but we are expecting a rate rise from 0.25% to 0.50% by the RBNZ. There was some earlier speculation that the RBNZ would raise 50 points to 0.75%, we can’t rule out this happening. If it does the NZD will go nuts.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9550 (1.0471)
Resistance: 0.9650 (1.0550)
Support: 0.9480 (1.0360)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9531-0.9687 (1.0323-1.0491)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has hit back tough against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to fly into Friday sessions around the 0.9550 (1.0470) zone marking a fresh 6 week low in the cross. Turns out, moves by the Aussie are the biggest ‘weekly’ shift since April 2020. Solid Aussie data of late has been underpinning the currency as it gets help from August Retail Sales -1.7% vs -2.5% and Building Approvals up 6.8% in August. Also of note is Iron Ore back at 115.00 from 100.30 low. The kiwi has faced new RBNZ pressures this week with speculation that governor Orr may only hike 0.25% instead of the 0.50% forecast. Both central banks show their hand next week -Tuesday RBA then Wednesday is RBNZ.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9544 AUDNZD 1.0472
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9537- 0.9675 AUDNZD 1.0335- 1.0485

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued where it left off at the Friday close, rallying to 1.0390 (0.9625) into Tuesday sessions against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) boosted by the Iron Ore recovery. Not a lot of excitement last week left the pair stuck in recent ranges with the Aussie may be slightly holding an edge post pressures from China’s Evergrande news. We don’t expect Australian Retail Sales to be good later today, instead rather flimsy with predictions of a slump in spending in the August month of -2.5%. This may cap topside momentum the AUD currently holds. New Zealand covid daily cases continue to improve which should ensure a shift to level 2 restrictions mid next week supporting the economy and currency. The bullish trend holds, a shift in favour of the AUD through 0.9580 (1.0440) may revise this.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9617 (1.0385)
Resistance: 0.9660 (1.0430)
Support: 0.9590 (1.0350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9623-0.9708 (1.0301-1.0392)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week where it left off, dropping further to 1.0290 (0.9720) Monday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Early Tuesday the currency regained losses to bounce back to 1.0330 (0.9680) as buyers returned. In the last 2 months Iron Ore values have halved. The Ore price has fallen from 212.00 per ton to 104.00 today as Chinese steel production cuts continue to weigh on the AUD with declines putting a dent on Australia’s GDP to the tune of over 65B. The big headline overnight was Chinese developer Evergrande sparking fears of contagion into markets which could add further concerns for the flailing AUD. No first tier data this week could promote more NZD momentum.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9655 (1.0348)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0400)
Support: 0.9615 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9652-0.9729 (1.0279-1.0361)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its stronghold over the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week with price reaching 0.9730 (1.0280) into Friday marking the highest level in the cross since April 2020. The Aussie one of the worst performing currencies over the week, couldn’t catch a break from employment data. Figures showed the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5% from 4.6%, after predictions were of a much higher read at 5.0%. The news should have spiked the AUD but jobs numbers stamped out any topside moves revealing a massive 146k contraction in employment with the participation rate likely the culprit. Watch out for more dovishness from Governor Lowe Monday when he speaks. A break back through 0.9660 (1.0350) could signal a trend reversal- however, we expect further buying in the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9697 AUDNZD 1.0312
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9646- 0.9727 AUDNZD 1.0280- 1.0366

An underperforming Australian Dollar (AUD) took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9680 (1.0330) extending the bull trend from the low at 0.9260 (1.0800) from late April. Last week’s dovish RBA put the Aussie under further pressure when they announced bond buying to the tune of 4B per week until at least November 2021. This week’s NZ GDP q/q is predicted to record a record increase from March quarter’s 1.6%, lifting the y/y rate to around 16%. Given the country has had border closures to tourists for around a year and a half, this is an epic result. Lockdowns in Auckland were extended yesterday for another week to next Tuesday putting added strain on business output as NSW daily cases continue well into the 1000’s. Later in the week Australian unemployment is expected to climb to 5.0% in August from July’s 4.6% and could add further strain on the already struggling AUD
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9664 (1.0344)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9603-0.9690 (1.0320-1.0413)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost value over the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sliding to 0.9660 (1.0350) into Friday sessions marking 13 weeks of declines. The RBA stuck with its original plan to start pulling back their bond-buying from 5B per week to 4B until at least February 2022. This comes with the economy losing considerable momentum during a time the country struggles with the delta outbreak. Unemployment is expected to rise over the coming months as Lowe reaffirmed they would not be hiking interest rates until at least 2024. We expect the NZD to track higher over the coming weeks in line with the RBNZ set to hike at their October meeting. Next Week’s data highlight is NZ Q2 GDP to the end of June and should reflect over 2% of growth in the economy.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9638 AUDNZD 1.0367
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9567- 0.9659 AUDNZD 1.0352- 1.0452

Moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross came off 0.9645 (1.0370) levels and closed the week at 0.9615 (1.0400), a tad lower than where the pair entered the week. Lockdowns and terrible covid numbers in Sydney with 1281 new cases yesterday amid 5 deaths continues to undermine the AUD with models showing hospitals are gearing up for numbers to hit 2,000 per day. Meanwhile, daily numbers in NZ are tracking lower every day as the country, except Auckland, eases restrictions from midnight Tuesday. Today’s RBA policy announcement should reflect recent poor economic news with the central bank most likely to refrain from any tapering of their 5B per week bond purchases. On the chart the AUD looks placed to track higher over the next few sessions, but we would suggest downside moves in the pair are limited to 0.9580 (1.0440)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9595 (1.0419)
Resistance: 0.9670 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9574-0.9644 (1.0369-1.0445)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ascended to a fresh 2021 high of 0.9650 (1.0350) against an out muscled Australian Dollar (AUD). To be fair the Aussie is having a fairly impressive week as well outplaying other major currencies, it was just that the kiwi outperformed it to take the week’s spot of the best show in town. Lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne continue to undermine the AUD and may continue for a while until daily cases start to improve, however growth expectations for the third quarter are predicted to be poor with risks of GDP travelling into the negatives. The Australian economy expanded by 0.7% in Q2 vs 0.4% but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then. Next week’s RBA statement and cash rate releases are our focus, we expect the kiwi to nudge higher leading into the close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9604 AUDNZD 1.0406
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9579- 0.9653 AUDNZD 1.0353- 1.0439

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to hover around the yearly high at 0.9600 (1.0420) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) well supported over the week. The only good news out for the AUD was the rebound in commodities, Iron Ore reversing some of the recent losses up 5.0% to 155.00 per tonne along with Copper up 4.0%. Although NZ is currently under lockdown restrictions with covid (delta) in the community the situation in Australia is worsening with 1290 new cases yesterday, not looking like numbers will come down anytime soon. Second quarter GDP releases tomorrow and could be as bad as -2.5% with predictions of a severe contraction in the third quarter which could mark a new recession. Overall we don’t think the cross will have any sizable shifts lower this week with a bias to the topside.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9626 (1.0380)
Resistance: 0.9690 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0320)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9550-0.9607 (1.0409-1.0471)

It was only a matter of time before the Antipodean Cross recorded 0.9600 (1.0415), reaching this level this morning after a lengthy few weeks of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outplaying its neighbor. Underpinned by an outbreak in NSW with over 1000 new cases yesterday assisting to undermine the Aussie. With no tier one data of note publishing this week in the cross recent momentum was firmly in the NZD favour pushing into early May 2020 levels. Meanwhile a bomb blast in Kabul overnight has softened market mood after 11 marines and 1 medic have been killed. Biden has addressed the nation promising to “hunt down” the terrorists responsible. This headline news along with key speeches to come out of the Jackson Hole Symposium early tomorrow could keep prices capped in the pair below 0.9610 (1.0405)

Exchange Rates

Post last week’s RBNZ announcement the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) devalued to 0.9490 (1.0540) but never settled there, paring back losses into the weekly close back around 0.9570 (1.0450). The Australian Dollar (AUD) back underperforming amid coronavirus as cases continue to increase on a daily basis especially in NSW. Into Tuesday the cross trades around the 0.9560 (1.0460) mark, the kiwi picking up further momentum this morning on the NZ Retail Sales release. For the quarter ending June, Retail Sales printed at a healthy 3.3% up from the first quarter’s 2.5% with all 16 regions showing higher sales values. Looking ahead we have Australian Retail Sales, predicted to represent a third month of declines around -2.5%. We foresee further upside in the kiwi post 0.9600 levels entering 16-month highs.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9552 (1.0460)
Resistance: 0.9590 (1.0540)
Support: 0.9490 (1.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9488-0.9603 (1.0413-1.0540)

Mixed results over the course of the week’s trading has thrown the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) to all corners of the park with the chart looking like a seismic activity graph. With a combination of RBNZ and Aussie jobs figures both surprising markets it’s been tough to pick a winner this week on performance. The pair has traded into Friday around the 0.9550 (1.0470) mark – basically the weekly open but not before taking short stints to 0.9485 (1.0540) and 0.9600 (1.0420). The RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged Wednesday in a surprise move after we were predicting a rise of 0.25% to 0.50%. With covid (delta) now back in the community, lockdowns kicked off again immediately on Tuesday night. Clearly governor Orr felt it inappropriate to lift rates at this time and will start the hiking cycle now at the October meeting. The Aussie Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.6% from 4.9% skewed by fewer people able to look for work, having little effect on boosting the Aussie, based on predictions the unemployment rate could spike in the August and September reports. The bear trendline remains a feature on the chart which could take the cross above 0.9600 (1.0420) levels in the coming weeks.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9541 AUDNZD 1.0476
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9487- 0.9598 AUDNZD 1.0418- 1.0540

Coronavirus cases in NSW continue to surge with over 7,000 active cases as only 20% of the population is vaccinated. In the past 24 hours 452 cases with 1 death. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is still under enormous pressure because of this as serious lockdowns are extend by a further four weeks closing businesses and ultimately damaging third quarter GDP. Looking ahead we have the RBNZ rate announcement and policy statement tomorrow with predictions of a hike of 25 points to 0.50%. A 25 point move, although largely priced into the curve should spike the kiwi higher, if Governor Orr decides to hike 0.50% we could see the pair push through long awaited 0.9600 yearly high levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9591 (1.0419)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0540)
Support: 0.9490 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9514-0.9593 (1.0424-1.0511)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is staring down the barrel of a sixth week of losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) declining to 0.9570 (1.0450). In all fairness the Aussie hasn’t quite underperformed as we thought it might this week holding recent ranges quite well. Data with NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment fell short of predictions with businesses struggling in light of coronavirus lockdowns in Melbourne and NSW. The latest NZ Inflation expectations survey highlighted participants expect inflation to be at 2.27% in two years’ time, currently its 3.3% y/y giving the RBNZ more urgency to raise rates. We still believe the cross is undervalued and should be trading above 0.9600 (1.0420) levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9541 AUDNZD 1.0466
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9513- 0.9568 AUDNZD 1.0451- 1.0511

Higher highs and higher lows have dominated movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross since early June’s 0.9260 (1.0800) level with the pair reaching 0.9550 (1.0470) Monday. The kiwi has outperformed the Aussie currency of late largely due to bumper NZ jobs data and unemployment dropping from 4.7% to 4.0% widely considered close to “full employment”. NSW coronavirus cases worsen and Iron Ore values have plummeted not doing the AUD any favours. We predict further rises in the cross to 0.9600 (1.0420) levels with nothing significant on the economic docket this week and a bullish RBNZ, with a rate hike predicted at next week’s policy meeting.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9531 (1.0485)
Resistance: 0.9670 (1.0560)
Support: 0.9470 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9382-0.9557 (1.0463-1.0659)

It’s been a week of relentless gains for this cross with the New Zealand dollar (NZD) thoroughly outperforming it’s Australian cousin, the AUD. While the Australian dollar saw some support in the wake of Tuesday’s RBA announcement, it was nothing like the gains the NZD saw after Wednesday’s stunning NZ employment data. As a result the NZDAUD now looks firmly entrenched above 0.9500 and it only seems a matter of time before the market tests 0.9550 and then potentially 0.9600. Next week’s economic calendar has only second tier data set for release, the highlights of which will be Australian business confidence and consumer sentiment, along with New Zealand inflation expectations.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9530 AUDNZD 1.0493
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9463 – 0.9557 AUDNZD 1.0463 – 1.0567

The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated to 1.0560 (0.9470) early Tuesday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) before falling back to 1.0530 (0.9500) as markets await this afternoon’s RBA announcement. Perhaps a sign on what’s to come later today when Governor Lowe speaks. With Sydney about to spend the whole month of August in lockdown and exports into China down 40% of late, we are expecting the central bank statement to not be pretty but soundly dovish. The RBA may even increase their asset buying program after earlier July rhetoric suggesting they were ready to start tapering. The AUD looks to us like it’s staring down the barrel of entering the 1.04’s (0.9530). Tomorrow’s NZ employment data is expected to print well and could add extra pressure on the AUD.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9488 (1.0532)
Resistance: 0.9530 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9429-0.9508 (1.0518-1.0606)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair spent most of the week bouncing around long term highs around 0.9450 (1.0580) levels. Australian CPI released benign as predicted the y/y 3.8% rise from May’s 1.1% as expected and fully priced into the curve with moves in the pair post release negligible. The highest level in 10 years won’t spook the RBA even though the 3.8% is well above the 2-3% target. Governor Lowe won’t be increasing rates on this data, with concerning coronavirus lockdowns and a predicted September quarter growth contraction weighing. Key standouts next are the RBA policy statement followed by NZ jobs data Wednesday. If we see an improvement in the current 4.7% rate we could see the kiwi push well into the 0.95’s
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9471 AUDNZD 1.0551
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9427- 0.9493 AUDNZD 1.0534- 1.0607

The Australian currency (AUD) remains under pressure against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross extending to 0.9490 (1.0540) this morning. Australian Consumer Confidence was down 3.5% as Sydney, Victoria and SA remain in lockdowns. The lowest level since November 2020. Cases have risen over the past few days, yesterday 145 new cases despite tightening lockdown restrictions. Tomorrow’s Australian CPI for the second quarter prints and is predicted to rise by 0.7% from May’s 0.6. Of note the y/y inflation figure may skyrocket to over 3.5% which will put added pressure on the RBA to react accordingly and bring in their forecast for future rate hikes? We predict more of the same from the RBA and more of the same for the current trend in the pair to continue into the 0.95’s possibly reaching 0.9600, certainly apart from tomorrow’s CPI result we see nothing stopping the kiwi from appreciating further in the coming days and weeks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9476 (1.0544)
Resistance: 0.9520 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9230 (1.0500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9422-0.9488 (1.0540-1.0613)

The expectation for diverging paths of Monetary Policy between the RBNZ and RBA is helping to support this cross at the moment, and it looks comfortable trading above 0.9400. An interest rate hike from the RBNZ next month is looking increasingly likely while any move from the RBA seems a long way off. The RBA themselves are suggesting an interest rate hike may not come until 2024, although that seems a little pessimistic to us. Assuming Australia can get the current outbreak of the Delta strain under control, and exit the crushing lockdowns, we think the inflation outlook will force the RBA to eventually bring forward their forecasts for an interest rate hike, potentially to the second half of next year. In the meantime, we should expect the New Zealand dollar (NZD) to remain well supported against its Australian cousin, and we can’t rule out a move toward 0.9550 or even 0.9600 at some stage. Next week we have Australian inflation data to digest, which could prove interesting.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9448 AUDNZD 1.0584
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9422 – 0.9484 AUDNZD 1.0544 – 1.0614

Things don’t look too rosy out there for the Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciating five weeks straight against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to reach 0.9475 (1.0554) at the weekly close. This week we have seen profit taking place from short Aussie positions with the AUD reversing small losses to 0.9450 (1.0580) into early Tuesday but we view further downside moves should be limited. All things aside such as new delta pandemic concerns and lockdowns in Sydney, central banks monetary stance holds the key in the cross. With a hawkish RBNZ and a dovish RBA it’s hard to see the Aussie improving at the moment. Australian Retail Sales is predicted to print poor tomorrow at -0.7% in June, the only economic focus this week. Clients looking at selling AUD should consider at these current levels with predictions that the pair could travel through 0.9600 (1.0420) – 16 month resistance areas in the short to medium term.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9433 (1.0592)
Resistance: 0.9490 (1.0700)
Support: 0.9345 (1.0540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9313-0.9474 (1.0555-1.0738)

From Tuesday it’s been all one-way traffic for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending 3 weeks of gains from 0.9330 (1.0720) over the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9450 (1.0580). Australian jobs numbers data surprised markets when the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.9% in June from 5.1% in May confirming better than predicted strength in the overall economy. This marks the lowest jobless rate since 2010 but had little effect on price. The RBNZ left rates unchanged as expected at 0.25% and brought forward their stance on hikes, with expected rises to start from August as the RBNZ said they would end its bond buying purchases by July 23rd. NZ CPI ending June quarter came in at 1.3% q/q against 0.7% predicted increasing the y/y figure from 1.5% to 3.3% and outside the central banks target of 1-3%. This confirms hikes are needed and we should see things happen next month. The cross now targets the yearly highs at 0.9490 (1.0540), a better than even chance we could see this over the next few days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9438 AUDNZD 1.0586
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9312- 0.9456 AUDNZD 1.0575- 1.0738

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its 5-week winning streak to 0.9390 (1.0650) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before falling back to 0.9345 (1.0700) in the early Friday session. Back at the weekly open it’s difficult to predict movement in the cross from here. Certainly, with The RBA more hawkish this week we don’t really see any justification as to why the NZD has had the edge over the Aussie. The RBA will start tapering their 5B bond purchases from November along with expectation that the central bank will also start hiking in 2024 over 2025. Perhaps markets have already priced in a hike in the NZ Cash rate at the November meeting – we should know next week at the central bank policy meeting. We suspect direction for the next few months in the pair could be determined then.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9349 AUDNZD 1.0690
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9322- 0.9391 AUDNZD 1.0648- 1.0727

The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost ground from 1.0730 (0.9320) in early Tuesday trading against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) falling to 1.0680 (0.9360) before recovering to 1.0700 (0.9345). Monday’s Aussie Retail Sales published at 0.4% after 0.1% was forecast boosting the Aussie to a three day high. The kiwi recovering all early losses post NZIER Business Confidence release. The report showed a sharp improvement in business confidence and demand for products. Most expect business and economic growth to pick up over the following quarter. ASB were on the wires post release suggesting they have moved their rate hike forecast in from mid-2022 to November 2021 saying the RBNZ cannot afford to wait much longer before reducing the covid monetary stimulus. This afternoon’s RBA cash rate and policy statement will be interesting- possibly hawkish and could swing around the pair in a second.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9350 (1.0686)
Resistance: 0.9430 (1.0900)
Support: 0.9175 (1.0600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9290-0.9364 (1.0679-1.0764)

Talk of a sooner than later RBNZ cash rate hike has pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) trading from 0.9310 (1.0740) to 0.9345 (1.0700) into Friday trading. Most NZ banks have bought forward their forecasts of hikes ahead of time, well ahead of the RBA. Next week’s RBA Cash Rate and monetary policy read should give us more clues as to what we can expect from the central bank. The Australian economy continues to do well, back at pre-covid levels so we could see a hawkish response from Governor Lowe. We have other tier one data to print next week on the docket so price shifts should mostly be around the RBA stance. Technically we have seen a bounce from 0.9345 (1.0700) levels this morning the Fibonacci 50% retracement from the low at 0.9250 (1.0810) and the high of 0.9435 (1.0600) suggesting price could retest 0.9295 (1.0760) over the next few hours/days.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9321 AUDNZD 1.0721
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9289- 0.9345 AUDNZD 1.0700- 1.0765

With no tier one data on the calendar this week the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may bounce around in its current range without too much enthusiasm. Last week’s decline in the AUD see’s price back at the 3-week high of 0.9320 (1.0730) into Tuesday sessions. Support at 0.9240 (1.0820) has held for the fourth time over the past few months as has resistance at 0.9330 (1.0720) mostly, indicating we could see a shift back towards 0.9260 (1.0800) this week. RBA assistant governor Ellis speaks Wednesday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9307 (1.0738)
Resistance: 0.9330 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9245 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9279-0.9336 (1.0711-1.0777)

Monday’s poor Australian Retail Sales has been the only data to release over the week coming in at 0.1% – lower than the 0.4 expected starting a bull run in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair. Coming off 0.9260 (1.0800) at the end of the week and tracking to 0.9320 (1.0730) into Friday the kiwi is back at the two week high. Looking into next week’s economic activity we have nothing on the calendar- suggesting price should stay close to current ranges. With resistance around 0.9345 (1.0700) we could see a further lift before price momentum is handed back to the AUD.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9311 AUDNZD 1.0730
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9255- 0.9325 AUDNZD 1.0723- 1.0804

Recent movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) is represented as choppy with no real direction over the past 10 days. Trading within 0.9250 (1.0810) and a high of 0.9306 (1.0745) the cross waits for further ques. Monday’s Australian Retail Sales came in light at 0.1% after 0.4% was expected shifting price to 0.9295 (1.0760) but the Aussie has since pushed to 0.9275 (1.0785) in midday Tuesday. This week’s action will be reasonably subdued with no tier one data to publish.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9274 (1.0772)
Resistance: 0.9310 (1.0810)
Support: 0.9250 (1.0740)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9249-0.9308 (1.0743-1.0811)

As we predicted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross bounced off solid support at 0.9240 travelling higher through to 0.9310 (1.0740) Thursday. NZ GDP q/q came in a whopping 1.6% or 2.4% y/y, the NZ economy avoiding dipping back into the late 2020 recession after a fourth quarter contraction of -1.0%. Aussie employment numbers published spectacularly well with 115,000 people being added to the workforce in May, most of these full-time employees, as the Unemployment Rate plummeted to 5.1% from 5.5%. Looking ahead, next week will be a quiet week on the economic docket, expect geopolitical headlines to dictate shifts. We expect the kiwi to have the upper edge over the next week or so.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9275 AUDNZD 1.0776
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9252- 0.9308 AUDNZD 1.0743- 1.0808

After two weeks of rises in the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0815 (0.9240) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) price hit a snag reversing off the key “head and shoulder” level Monday. This level has held since mid-April – the right hand shoulder of the chart pattern setup. Certainly going by this we could see a little appreciation develop in the kiwi this week. Thursday’s NZ GDP q/q release should shift price, especially if we see a release outside of the expected 0.5%. About 3 hours later we shift focus to Australian jobs numbers releasing with unemployment expected to remain at 5.5% with the job numbers turning up from April’s negative read. Iron Ore levels are still extremely elevated and could underpin the AUD.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9266 (1.0785)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9250-0.9328 (1.072-1.0811)

Despite a small rise post the weekly open, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continued last week’s quest lower reaching a 12-day low this morning of 0.9295 (1.0760) as the Aussie dominated. Although rifts recently have strained the relationship between China and Australia it seems China can’t get enough of Australian iron ore. Recent figures show that overall exports between the two countries have risen by a huge 32.6% y/y to June 2021 as China’s imports grow at the fastest pace in over 10 years. Trade standoffs which were understood to hurt Australia’s bottom line have not eventuated with iron ore prices still trading well over $200.00 per tonne supporting the AUD. Today’s ANZ Business Confidence hasn’t done the kiwi any favours slipping slightly in June, but overall businesses predict economic demand to remain robust. We expect more upside in the AUD and 0.9250 (1.0810) to be retested.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9299 (1.0749)
Resistance: 0.9340 (1.0800)
Support: 0.9260 (1.0710)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9371-0.9362 (1.0681-1.0671)

Despite a benign read from the RBA the Australian Dollar (AUD) has regained most of last week’s losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trading back to 1.0730 (0.9320) into Friday. The kiwi and Aussie currencies both dropped overnight in the wake of the US ADP release but the AUD has fared much better on recent improvements in Chinese data. China’s plans to derail iron exports from Australia by devaluing iron ore prices look to have backfired at least for now after the price dropped a massive 10.3% midweek then bounced all the way back to 209.00 a tonne. Cleary good news for Australian mining with comments suggesting China’s plan won’t work long term based on supply demand. Levels below 0.9260 (1.0800) look unlikely for now but pressures to the downside will remain.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9328 AUDNZD 1.0716
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9318- 0.9423 AUDNZD 1.0612- 1.0732

After the RBNZ hawkish mood last week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stabalised around 0.9400 (1.0640) levels against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to close the week. Even with a rebound in iron ore prices and positive Chinese data of late we suspect the Aussie will struggle to make any proper headway unless the RBA changes their dovish policy stance. We could find out later today when the RBA rate and policy statement is announced. Some predict talk of QE tapering to start with inflation on the rise. The AUD has risen over the past few hours from 1.0600 (0.9345) to trade at 1.0650 (0.9390) – perhaps a sign.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9379 (1.0655)
Resistance: 0.9435 (1.0815)
Support: 0.9250 (1.0600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9304-0.9434 (1.06-1.0748)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finally broke free of the recent six week range against the Australian Dollar (AUD) climbing at a quick pace, post the RBNZ Wednesday announcement to 0.9410 (1.0630). Breaking above the top of the recent range through 0.9330 (1.0720) the kiwi entered fresh multi month highs. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand made comments suggesting they could hike rates as early as the third quarter of 2022- but this was highly conditional. The RBNZ sees the cash rate around 1.5% by the December quarter of 2023 and inflation at 1.7% ending March 2022. The central bank sees unemployment at 4.7% early next year and dropping to 4.5% in 2023. Currently it’s 4.7%. We see profit taking on long NZD positions around 0.9400 levels taking the kiwi lower into the weekly close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9388 AUDNZD 1.0641
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0599- 1.0790 AUDNZD 0.9267- 0.9435

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair trades around the upper side of the recent range into Tuesday sessions at 0.9310 (1.0740) – NZ Retail Sales yesterday offering up further reasons to buy the kiwi after posting 2.5% instead of the -1.8% expected in the March quarter result. We see further upside momentum limited to 0.9345 (1.0700) levels based on recent resistance. To be fair the Aussie isn’t trading all that weaker, it’s all about central bank rhetoric and inflation targets at the moment and not so much hinged on data releases. Tomorrow’s RBNZ rate announcement and policy statement releases, with analysts predicting measured comments from governor Orr with regards to tightening policy in light of further border restrictions. We expect price movement to favour the 0.9250 (1.0810) area over the remainder of the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9306 (1.0740)
Resistance: 0.9330 (1.0800)
Support: 0.9260 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9253-0.9312 (1.0738-1.0807)

Range bound movement in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair continues this week with price bouncing off 0.9330 (1.0720) at the weekly open extending to 0.9275 (1.0780) in early Thursday trading. Judging by recent moves we see a more than fair chance of further weakness in the NZD developing. Today’s Australian employment data and Unemployment Rate should bring the normal currency moves but the data is predicted to print the same in April as March’s 5.6%. Iron ore prices are trading off all time highs around 212 per tonne and continue to underpin the AUD to a point. With the RBNZ likely to start easing QE first and raise interest rates together with China trade tensions with the Australian Government we could see the kiwi push higher. Can’t believe I just said this, as we have been favouring the AUD over recent weeks but with the RBA dragging the chain this is one of the main drivers in the pair.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9271 AUDNZD 1.0779
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9266- 0.9330 AUDNZD 1.0717- 1.0791

The Australian Dollar (AUD) found buyers Monday, finally, after the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggled to break past the 0.9330 (1.0720) resistance level. Reversing off the upper range level to 0.9285 (1.0770) into Tuesday. Four weeks off sideways movement – how long can it continue before we see a proper breakout? We still think the AUD should be trading much stronger on the whole, purely off the back of all time high Chinese steel output and the demand for Australian resources such as iron ore, which is back above 217 a tonne. Meanwhile we wait for Australian Jobs data Thursday the economic focus along with the NZ annual budget.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9285 (1.0762)
Resistance: 0.9330 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9256-0.9334 (1.0714-1.0804)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) looked in control Monday pushing price to 0.9250 (1.0810) but this level turned out to be met with support. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has dominated the kiwi into Friday to 0.9305 (1.0750)- 0.9290 (1.0760) currently surprising us again. Iron Ore prices are trading just off all time highs this morning at 212.00 per ton (FE) and should be giving the Aussie plenty of upside momentum in this cross but isn’t. To add salt into the wound of buyers of AUD other commodities such as aluminium and petroleum and gold are also charging, the resources sector equates to roughly 70% of Australia’s exports – so how is the Aussie not trading higher? We think the pair should be operating at a level below 0.9170 (above 1.0900) so expect a pullback at some stage.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9285 AUDNZD 1.0763
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9249- 0.9304 AUDNZD 1.0748- 1.0811

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended Friday’s declines into Monday against the Australian Dollar reaching 0.9240 (1.0820) as risk markets supported the Aussie after equity indices closed higher around all time levels. Australia’s natural resources sector make up 6 of Australia’s top 10 exports, with iron ore, gold, aluminium and petroleum all trading at record highs we expect the AUD to have been better supported, maybe a rally of sorts is still to come. We see fair value around 0.9100 levels or lower, certainly once the roller coaster economic ride flattens we could see the AUD outperform medium to long term in the cross. Earlier Australian Retail Sales printed slightly lower at 1.3% based on 1.4% predictions but never really altered price. Currently around the 0.9275 (1.0780) level we expect the AUD to outshine the kiwi into the close.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9270 (1.0781)
Resistance: 0.9330 (1.0840)
Support: 0.9225 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9241-0.9331 (1.0717-1.0821)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross bottomed out at 0.9240 (1.0820) early in the week post the RBA monetary policy release before reversing higher to 0.9330 (1.0720) yesterday as the kiwi regained losses after a bumper jobs data release. The RBA left rate unchanged as widely predicted Tuesday in a somewhat muted commentary. Talk of the usual QE to increase if required and a healthy economic recovery was the tone with the unemployment rate predicted to click lower to 5% at the end of this year- currently its 5.6%. The NZ unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.7%- lower than the 4.9% forecast bringing back kiwi buyers. However, into Friday the AUD is outperforming the NZD with price back around 0.9290 (1.0760). Surging iron ore prices should ensure further AUD upside continues well into the middle of May as supply struggles to keep up with demand in China as steel makers ramp up production. Buyers of AUD should consider at elevated levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9291 AUDNZD 1.0758
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9241- 0.9330 AUDNZD 1.0717- 1.0821

A trend change in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair took place when price spiked through 0.9260 recently, since then the kiwi has extended its momentum hold rising to 0.9345 (1.0700) at week’s end. Monday saw the Aussie recover losses pulling back to 0.9275 (1.0780) as markets pause for the RBA to announce their cash rate and policy this afternoon. With last week’s inflation figures low (1.1% y/y) we don’t expect the RBA to change their forecast on interest rate outlook any time soon with 0.10% looking like it should remain well into 2024. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data could shift price around if anything outside 4.9% publishes. With massive demand for Australian Iron Ore by Chinese industry we should see the record price of US200 per tonne tested, strengthening the AUD at least in the medium term.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9276 (1.0776)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9235 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9265-0.9338 (1.0709-1.0793)

Coming off 0.9310 (1.0740) at the start of the week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakened to 0.9275 (1.0780) Wednesday lunchtime, the Australian Dollar (AUD) recovering most of last week’s losses ending two weeks of declines. With a quiet start to the week with NZ and Australia celebrating ANZAC day holiday, the pair bounced around in volatile markets. We still hold a view that fundamentally the kiwi has no real reason to be outperforming the AUD. Especially if we go off recent data releases which should have been AUD supportive and the current record high Iron Ore price. Still very good buying in the cross above 0.9200 levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9271 (1.0779)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0815)
Support: 0.9250 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9258-0.9311 (1.074-1.0801)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke above trendline resistance early this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing through resistance at 0.9250 (1.0810) to reach 0.9315 (1.0735) into Friday. Perhaps the kiwi has been a little more supported with markets turning ‘risk off” over the week but this aside, we see no fundamentally proper reason why the NZD has gone on to outperform the AUD. NZ Q CPI rose 1.5% from a year earlier and 0.8% from 0.5% in the last quarter 2020 matching forecast. Australian Retail Sales for March printed well at 1.4% for March after a decline of -0.8% in February. For those buying AUD it looks extremely good buying currently. We would suggest further topside is very limited, fill your boots.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9285 AUDNZD 1.0762
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9232- 0.9316 AUDNZD 1.0734- 1.0831

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was knocked back Monday from 0.9235 (1.0830) to 0.9275 (1.0780) before recovering to 0.9240 (1.0820) midday Today. Big dollar weakness supported the kiwi, also a factor could be the flood of Australian’s and expat kiwis about to hit NZ shores after the travel bubble with Australia kicked off midnight Sunday. Last week’s bumper Australian employment data should have had more legs but at the centre of headlines at the moment in Australia is the ongoing issues with national vaccine supplies. Although the cross has pushed above 0.9240 (1.0820) resistance we still favour a return to 0.9175 (1.0900) levels. Those that are buying AUD may want to consider these levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9252 (1.0797)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0900)
Support: 0.9175 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9213-0.9266 (1.0792-1.0854)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is weaker midday Friday at 0.9255 (1.0805) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after a busy week of positive data publishing. Australian employment data came in surprisingly well and the Unemployment Rate clicked lower to 5.6% from 5.8% for March. The RBNZ’s dovish statement strangely sent the NZD higher for no good reason. The Central Bank left policy unchanged together with the Large Scale Asset Purchase program of up to $100B and the Funding for Lending Programme. The OCR will remain at the record low of 0.25% well into 2022. So with economic data supporting the AUD we struggle to identify the reason why the NZD has broken above the bearish channel resistance at 0.9240 (1.0820) which has held since the start of February. Looking ahead we have NZ Q CPI on Wednesday, perhaps bear momentum will resume.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9254 AUDNZD 1.0797
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9214- 0.9268 AUDNZD 1.0789- 1.0853

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has broadly traded sideways over the past 10 days choosing to stay within a 0.9200 (1.0870) and 0.9250 (1.0810) range. On the chart we can see the continuation of the bearish channel from 0.9470’s (1.0560) early February high and several bounces off support recently around 0.9245 (1.0820) areas. The easing of the Brisbane lockdown and new travel bubble between Australia and NZ with travel commencing again on the 19th April has boosted confidence sharply in the Aussie despite recent vaccine rollouts and precious metal prices turning south. Two key economic releases to watch this week with RBNZ rate and policy announcement tomorrow and Australian unemployment Thursday, which should move price, we predict in AUD direction.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9210 (1.0848)
Resistance: 0.9250 (1.0900)
Support: 0.9175 (1.0810)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9136-0.9303 (1.0749-1.0946)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced nicely off the upper end of the bearish channel to 0.9210 (1.0860) this morning supporting the AUD higher. This pattern has been in play since the start of February’s 0.9470 (1.0560) and looks to resume well into next week with further downside to 0.9160 (1.0920) predicted. A trans Tasman travel-free bubble was announced yesterday by Jacinda Ardern and comes into play on the 18th of April. This should be good for the NZD in the long term. The Australian Central Bank left rates unchanged at 0.10% as expected, saying interest rates won’t be raised until well into 2024. They won’t increase the cash rate unless inflation is within the 2-3% range. For this to happen unemployment needs to be much lower around 4%, currently it’s 5.8%. The announcement was Aussie supportive with analysts suggesting we may see a hike to rates earlier than predicted, coronavirus vaccine dependent.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9203 AUDNZD 1.0859
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9196- 0.9248 AUDNZD 1.0813- 1.0874

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s gains against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to reach 0.9135 (1.0945) Monday before the kiwi fought back to 0.9210 (1.0860) into Wednesday. New Zealand Building Consents at -18.2% for February didn’t help the kiwi as well as ANZ Business Confidence which published at -4.1% in line with the economy going sideways recently. A lack of tourists and an unsustainable rise in retail spending has starved the economy of a better result. In a shortened Easter week we only have Aussie Retail Sales on the calendar of note. The bearish channel in play which has held since December signals further pullbacks to 0.9090 (1.10) levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9182 AUDNZD 1.0888
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9136- 0.9207 AUDNZD 1.0861- 1.0946

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been smoked this week, falling to 0.9145 (1.0935) against the Australian Dollar. A new NZ govt introduced incentive to put the brakes on surging NZ house values immediately put the kiwi on the backfoot. By taking away investor tax incentives and increasing the bright- line from 5 years to 10 years the Govt made no bones about how this directive will hugely affect housing demand by tilting the balance to first home buyers and stiffing property investors tax rights at the same time. Decades of happy property investors and a NZ way of life came to a screeching halt. This will keep interest rates lower for a longer period of time at the RBNZ. Support on the chart is 0.9120 (1.0960) and should hold.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9169 AUDNZD 1.0897
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0782- 1.0937 AUDNZD 0.9143- 0.9274

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke below pivotal support at 0.9250 (1.0815) this morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on its way to reach 0.9205 (1.0865). This level was last seen in October 2020 with the AUD recovering from a bigger move around 0.9590 (1.0430) high back in November. AUD buying flows from last week’s incredible employment data release has extended into this Tuesday also with softer NZ data releasing. NZ Westpac consumer sentiment printed at 105.2 in the March quarter below average showing greater nervousness with consumers. Around midday today the NZ govt introduced new measures to put the brakes on surging NZ house values by taking away investor tax incentives and increasing the no tax period of 5 years to 10 years. The Govt made no bones about how this directive will hugely affect housing demand, putting all the cards in the hands of first home buyers. NZD/AUD bias is firmly with the Aussie with a retest of 0.9180 (1.0890) looking likely.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9199 (1.0863)
Resistance: 0.9260 (1.0950)
Support: 0.9130 (1.0800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9205-0.9304 (1.0748-1.0864)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has travelled back to late February level of 0.9240 (1.0820) this morning where heavy support lies. The Thursday (daily) close at 0.9250 (1.0815) marked the lowest level since mid-October 2020 as the Aussie gathers pace. Australian unemployment figures were extremely good with the unemployment rate printing at 5.8% from 6.3% expected. Jobs data also surprised to the upside when 88,700 positions were added to the workforce, higher than the 30,000 predicted. We are reasonably likely to see the AUD stall around the current zone and gains made in the kiwi, based on past performance. If the iron ore price remains hot the opposite will happen.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9228 AUDNZD 1.0827
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9225- 0.9310 AUDNZD 1.0741- 1.0840

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to push back against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending last week’s gains from 0.9410 (1.0630) into today’s sessions to 0.9275 (1.0780). Recent positive data published has supported the Aussie with additional QE support this week from Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiling a 1.2B stimulus package to support the airline industry. Next week’s Australian employment release could pose a hiccup for the AUD based on expectations of slowing job growth over the past couple of months. Also of note is the wage subsidy which ends at the end of the month which could signal job losses over the next few months is a real possibility. The Aussie will find it hard to break through robust support at 0.9250 (1.0810) but could come close looking at current trend and momentum.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9273 AUDNZD 1.0778
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9273- 0.9356 AUDNZD 1.0688- 1.0783

With all the recent excitement based around the US Dollar the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been mostly sitting in a consolidation phase over the past few days pivoting around the 0.9300 (1.0750) area. However, the kiwi has kicked off a move higher in the last hour spiking back to 0.9325 (1.0724) before the Aussie was again bid back to 0.9310 (1.0740). CBA came out undermining the AUD suggesting 0.7600 AUD/USD is the near-term forecast. Of note also was Australian consumer confidence releasing showing a jump of 1.5% in the past week. We must not get too ahead of ourselves however with Australian wage subsidies ending at the end of this month we expect an increase of job losses on the horizon. Attempts to retest 0.9285 (1.0770) level look ify, we think the NZD could return price towards 0.9390 (1.0650) in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9312 (1.0731)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9293 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9284-0.9395 (1.0644-1.0771)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recouped most of last week’s losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 1.0770 (0.9285) post Wednesday’s RBA and upbeat GDP announcement. The RBA statement was a non-event, the central bank saying they would retain the cash rate at 0.10% most likely until 2024 as the economy recovers well from the pandemic. More importantly, the Australian economy climbed further from its recent recession after posting a 3.1% rise in GDP in the December quarter blowing away early expectations of a 2.2% markets were predicting. Broadly rangebound from Thursday hovering around 0.9310 (1.0740). We suggest a higher AUD in the coming days on prospects of a global industrial comeback.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9304 AUDNZD 1.0740
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9285- 0.9394 AUDNZD 1.0645- 1.0770

As we predicted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted further gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) towards the weekend traveling to 0.9400 (1.0640) where it closed. Reversing off 0.9245 (1.0820) early last week the kiwi continued to outperform. Two big economic releases this week are- today’s RBA cash rate and statement as well as last quarter 2020 GDP tomorrow. Australian GDP is predicted to print around the 2.3% growth mark following on from the 3.3% in the third quarter strongly coming out of the recent recession. Comments at today’s RBA statement could set the tone for the week after they boosted their bond buying program yesterday by 3B. Tuesday movement has seen a pick up in AUD with price moving to 0.9345 (1.0700) at lunch.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9359 (1.0679)
Resistance: 0.9400 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9237-0.9398 (1.064-1.0826)

Early week momentum in the Australian Dollar (AUD) came to a screeching halt against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after markets labelled the Aussie as overvalued. Price reached 0.9230 (1.0830) which turned out to be a solid support zone, before the kiwi started to recover losses in a hurry. A less than dovish RBNZ helped to push buyers back into the NZD over the second part of the week with the pair traveling to 0.9370 (1.0670). It’s hard not to see the NZD strengthening further through 0.9400 (1.0640) levels from here through to next week’s key RBA announcement. Aussie (second estimate) fourth Q GDP prints later next week and could ruffle the currency if the result is outside the 4.0% predicted.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9356 AUDNZD 1.0684
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9237- 0.9372 AUDNZD 1.0669- 1.0826

Australian Dollar (AUD) gains continued early week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross reaching 0.9260 (1.0800) midday Tuesday. This marks the fourth week of improvements in the Aussie from the recent 2 February high of 0.9480 (1.0550). Credit agency Fitch has maintained Australia’s credit rating at AAA but with a slightly negative outlook. S&P also came out and raised the NZ rating from AA to AA+. Interestingly this had no positive impact on the kiwi with the Aussie surging higher. This week’s RBNZ monetary policy statement will be a key focus for the pair, while from Australian we have private capital expenditure data on the radar. Price extensions lower look well capped at 0.9250 the mid January low – we expect a bounce higher at this area.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9253 (1.0800)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9246-0.9329 (1.0719-1.0816)

While it is definitely too early to suggest the Australian dollars (AUD) gains against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) have run their course, there are tentative signs that this could be the case. We have seen a couple of bouts of short term strength in the NZD/AUD pair this week, both of which have broken through downtrend resistance levels. There are also some technical indicators suggesting that downside trend momentum is waning, and these are exactly the sort of signs you would expect to see as we approach major turning points. The low this week for the pair was set at 0.9264 (1.0794) last night. Since then we’ve seen a bounce with the cross currently trading at 0.9295 (1.0758) . Next week’s RBNZ monetary policy statement will be a key focus for the pair, while from Australian we have private capital expenditure data to digest. We continue to believe these are attractive levels to convert AUD to NZD and recommend that clients take advantage of the current rate.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9291 AUDNZD 1.0763
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.6264 – 0.9329 AUDNZD 1.0719 – 1.0794

The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued to outperform it’s New Zealand counterpart with the cross trading to a low of 0.9285 late last week. There really hasn’t been any fundamental data to drive this move and some technical indicators are starting to suggest that the downside momentum is waning. As such we suspect the pair is not far away from finding support and we would look for a gradual recovery to eventually take hold. Clients looking to convert AUD to NZD should take advantage of current levels as it seems unlikely we’ll get further significant losses from here. That being said, we would like to see the cross trade back above initial downtrend resistance, currently around 0.9300, to feel more confident in that call. Second tier data from NZ this week should have little impact, while from Australia we have the RBA minutes set for release today, followed by employment data on Thursday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9294 (1.0760)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0799)
Support: 0.9260 (1.0753)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9283-0.9388 (1.0652-1.0772)

The NZDAUD cross rate peaked at 0.9487 mid last week in the wake of much better than forecast NZ employment data. But since then the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been gradually underperforming its Australian cousin (AUD) and that’s seen the cross rate erode to a low of 0.9355 in the past couple of hours. There really hasn’t been any fundamental data or releases to support this decline in the pair and as such we suspect it should soon find support, probably around the 0.9330 area. Clients looking to convert AUD to NZD should take advantage of this current weakness as a return to levels over 0.9400 could easily eventuate over the coming week or two.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9351 (1.0694)
Resistance: 0.9500 (1.0718)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0526)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9348-0.9488 (1.0540-1.0670)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended gains into Wednesday morning against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to post 0.9460 (1.0570) after surprisingly good NZ employment data. The NZ Unemployment Rate came in well under the 5.6% we were predicting at 4.9% with the participation rate also up at 70.2%. Earlier the Bank of Australia came out dovish, raising their QE program by 100B after many thought they would be scaling the current 100B back. The RBA are not planning to raise rates any time soon as they try to maintain inflation in the 2-3% target range. Governor Lowe speaks on Friday, apart from this the cross may end the week quietly. No tier one data next week of note for the pair with the NZD eyeing 0.9600 (1.0420) the 11-month high.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9456 (1.0567)
Resistance: 0.9480 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9333-0.9467 (1.0563-1.0715)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) deteriorated further into Friday sessions against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 1.0670 (0.9270). A softish fourth quarter Aussie CPI release at 0.9% pressured the AUD and should lead to the next week’s RBA underlining its commitment to the current monetary policy. We expect further support of NZD leading into the release on Tuesday. Post RBA, NZ employment figures should create some excitement in the pair. Expectations are for a clip lower from December’s 5.3% which could further support the kiwi to reach into yearly highs past 0.9370 (1.0670)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9348 AUDNZD 1.0690
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9302- 0.9372 AUDNZD 1.0671- 1.0750

The one way traffic Australian Dollar (AUD) bull rally from the start of 2021 came to an abrupt halt mid last week with price reaching a low of 0.9225 versus the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) turning on a dime to post 0.9320 (1.0730) at the close. The Iron ore recent momentum plateaued around the $170 per tonne giving the kiwi breathing space. Friday’s NZ CPI 4th Q offered small relief for the kiwi with a print of 0.5% instead of the forecasted 0.2%. The annual inflation rate was unchanged at 1.4%, stripping out volatile items to the reading the figure was closer to 2.0% the RBNZ’s target range. Australian CPI for the December quarter prints tomorrow also with predictions of 0.7% rise to inflation following 1.6% in the third quarter. We predict the kiwi should click higher into next week’s RBA policy and rate announcement. We target 0.9410 (1.0630) as the next resistance point.
Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.9329 (1.0714)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.0810)
Support: 0.9250 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9223-0.9345 (1.0701-1.0842)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in 2021 to today’s 0.9260 (1.0800). The kiwi pushed back late December to regain losses at 0.9410 (1.0630) but failed to push on. Demand for the AUD has outperformed the kiwi as equity markets and commodities make gains. Iron Ore prices have rallied of late with Chinese steel production numbers hitting record highs. Trading at close to near decade highs around 174.00 per tonne the Aussie Dollar has benefited a great deal. Australian employment data prints Thursday with unemployment for December expected to show 6.7% and possibly rally the AUD further.
Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.9257 (1.0795)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0900)
Support: 0.9175 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9252-0.9317 (1.0733-1.0808)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in 2021 to today’s 0.9260 (1.0800). The kiwi pushed back late December to regain losses at 0.9410 (1.0630) but failed to push on. Demand for the AUD has outperformed the kiwi as equity markets and commodities make gains. Iron Ore prices have rallied of late with Chinese steel production numbers hitting record highs. Trading at close to near decade highs around 174.00 per tonne the Aussie Dollar has benefited a great deal. Australian employment data prints Thursday with unemployment for December expected to show 6.7% and possibly rally the AUD further.
Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.9257 (1.0795)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0900)
Support: 0.9175 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9252-0.9317 (1.0733-1.0808)

Weaker NZD on this cross overnight falling to a 0.9343 low overnight, as both antipodean currencies were hit by a reduction in risk appetite as COVID-19 cases surged across Europe and the US… Although the AUD was more resilient to the selloff the Kiwi has recovered slightly on this cross to be back around 0.9367 (1.0676) ….to date any moves below the support level at 0.9350 have been short-lived but tomorrow’s Aussie trade data may provide the impetus for a move lower…we maintain our pick for the Aussie on this cross, however the Covid outbreak in Sydney is a concern especially if the outbreak becomes more widespread and the other states continue with NSW border closures on a more extended basis…..Volatility is likely to be the norm over the next two weeks as market volumes thin …0.9200 to 0.9460 wide range over the next week or so.
Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.9349 (1.0686)
Resistance: 0.9442 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9293 (1.0590)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9352-0.9422 (1.0613-1.0692)

The NZ dollar (NZD) has had a gradual decline on this cross over the week, from 0.9422 (1.0613) to 0.9353 (1.0692) .Yesterday’s robust Q3 GDP result saw the NZD/AUD cross back at the 0.9400 (1.0638) mark, but the better Aussie jobs data has pushed the NZD back under the 0.9400 (1.0638) level to its current 0.9380 (1.0661) mark. Increased global risk sentiment amid vaccine deployment and China’s economic outperformance are currently benefiting the AUD more than the NZD, with Iron ore’s spectacular performance appears to have been belatedly priced into the cross, although headwinds exist for the AUD should the China/Aussie coal spat escalate. The AUD is continued to be favoured on this cross if support at 0.9350 (1.0695) breaks then targeting a move to the 0.9289 (1.0765) level, a sustained move over 0.9400 (1.0638) targets 0.9460 (1.0571).
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9380 AUDNZD 1.0653
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9354- 0.9422 AUDNZD 1.0613- 1.0690

The volatility seen last week on the NZD/AUD cross looks to have abated with this cross settling around the 0.9400 (1.0638) mark. Aussie RBA minutes published later today are not expected to bring any surprises after the RBA kept rates on hold earlier in the month. We expect much of this week’s attention to remain on the USD so any this cross should remain relatively stable over the next few days. Thursday will bring NZ Q3 GDP which is expected to show that the New Zealand recovery has overtaken that of many of its key trading partners, in part thanks to successful virus management and the macroeconomic policy response (including the deterioration in the Government’s books).Aussie employment data also on Thursday will be one to watch. The AUD continues to look preferred on this cross- look for 0.9350- 0.9450 range over the next few days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9389 (1.0641)
Resistance: 0.9590 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9385-0.9513 (1.0512-1.0655)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week driving the cross rate below key long term trend support at 0.9430 (1.0604). This leaves the cross in a precarious position, and while we should see a small corrective bounce from the current level, the risks have increased dramatically that we will see further weakness between now and Christmas. It’s hard to pinpoint what has caused the move in the NZDAUD rate, but for sure the AUD is finding some support from strong iron ore prices. Current trading at $146.2 per tonne, that’s the highest level since 2013. Topside resistance for the pair now comes in around 0.9440 and while that caps any near-term strength, the risks remains skewed toward further downside for the pair. Next week on Thursday we have Australian employment data to digest along with GDP data from New Zealand.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9420 AUDNZD 1.0616
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9397 – 0.9520 AUDNZD 1.0504 – 1.0642

The Australian Dollar (AUD) New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross reversed from the high of 0.9600 (1.0415) Friday, post third quarter GDP releasing midweek, falling back to 0.9480 (1.0550) at the close. This week’s action has seen the cross up at 0.9510 (1.0515) and back to 0.9480 (1.0550) Tuesday holding most of the recent gains. GDP confirmed the Australian economy is formally out of recession with growth of 3.3% in the third quarter, higher than the 2.5% predicted. Even with recent Aussie strength the cross is still deep within the bullish channel from 0.9060 (1.1040) from mid-August and needs to show a break outside of 0.9390 (1.0650) before a new trend reversal on the downside is confirmed.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9476 (1.0547)
Resistance: 0.9595 (1.0620)
Support: 0.9420 (1.0420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9463-0.9600 (1.0417-1.0568)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) made solid gains against its Australian cousin, the AUD, in the first half of the week briefly trading to just under 0.9600 before Wednesday’s release of Australian GDP. That better than forecast data, with third quarter growth printing at 3.3%, seems to have turned the tide for the pair, at least for the time being, and we’ve seen a steady decline to the current 0.9500 level in the 48 or so hours since. That being said, the longer term uptrend which has been in place since the late August low of 0.9057, will not be called into doubt unless key trend support around 0.9420 is broken. So the NZDAUD cross could easily fall another 80 points, without threatening the longer term bullish trend. Clients looking to convert AUD to NZD should take advantage of any further weakness toward that 0.9420 level.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9507 AUDNZD 1.0519
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9504 – 0.9600 AUDNZD 1.0417 – 1.0522

The New Zealand Dollar continues to post fresh highs against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9560 (1.0460) late Monday extending its recent form. With no local NZ economic data releasing this week our focus will be on today’s RBA monetary statement and rate announcement followed by third quarter GDP. We are not expecting much hoopla around the RBA with no changes to 0.10% or policy anticipated – instead GDP has the potential to shift price considerably. Third quarter GDP is predicted to be 2.4%, a decent rebound from second quarter’s -7.0% and first Q -0.3%. Several Australian banks are predicting the figure to be much higher than 2.4% with massive increases over the past 3 months in household spending driving this. If this happens, we could see a spike in AUD buying. Certainly over the past few hours we are already seeing an improvement in the AUD as the cross travels back to 0.9540 (1.0480). Buyers looking to make the most out of this NZD trend above 0.9500 levels should consider now.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9543 (1.0471)
Resistance: 0.9560 (1.0560)
Support: 0.9470 (1.0460)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9468-0.9567 (1.0453-1.0562)

After the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to 0.9550 (1.0470) early week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) price action has been pivoting around the 0.9505 (1.0520) area in the past few days as the cross considers its next directional move. NZ Retail Sales was huge in the third quarter at 28% against second’s -14% showing a pickup in local consumer spending, while Aussie Construction, and Private Capital Expenditure wasn’t so positive for the AUD coming in slightly lower than predicted. Next week’s RBA statement should be pretty uneventful but post RBA is third quarter GDP which may not be. Markets are predicting a rise to around 1.4% economic growth and a return out from recession.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9515 AUDNZD 1.0505
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9468- 0.9549 AUDNZD 1.0472- 1.0561

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) soured past July 2020 highs late last week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on its way to post 0.9512 (1.0513). This week the cross has held 0.9505 (1.0520) levels as it waits for further directional cues. A less dovish RBNZ with a view to not cutting rates to 0.10% until around May next year continues to interest buyers regarding the attractiveness of the kiwi carry trade. Monday’s NZ Retail Sales published at 28.0% for the third quarter a massive jump from second quarter’s -14% reflecting rises to consumer domestic spending. NZ Governor Orr speaks tomorrow prior to Aussie Private Capital Expenditure Thursday. Both may not impact price much. Levels in the pair should remain in recent ranges.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9492 (1.0526)
Resistance: 0.9515 (1.0550)
Support: 0.9480 (1.0510)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9410-0.9511 (1.0514-1.0627)

It’s been one-way traffic this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with price moving from the weekly open around 0.9435 (1.0600) to 0.9505 (1.0520) into midday Friday. Extending last week’s rally from in the kiwi to the early April daily close, we expect the NZD is not done yet and could take a look at 0.9570 (1.0450) over the next few days. Aussie jobs numbers Wednesday were pretty good, certainly not reflective of the weakness we have seen this week. A large number of people returned to the workforce- 178,000 with unemployment ticking up slightly to 7.0% from 7.1% forecast. NZ Retail Sales and Aussie construction data are the highlights on the docket next week. At some point we will see a pullback in the cross to perhaps 0.9450 (1.0580) levels before broadly trading higher.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9491 AUDNZD 1.0528
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9416- .9507 AUDNZD 1.0518- 1.0620

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) backed off from last week’s high of 0.9480 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) closing the week around 0.9420 (1.0615). RBA Lowe spoke yesterday saying 2020 will be a year that people will be talking about for decades to come. The closing of borders, the largest budget deficit and interest rates down around zero marks the biggest economic downturn in nearly a century. He went on to say Australia could see a rapid turnaround if they can get good news on the health front. Lowe speaks again tomorrow before Australian employment data. Unemployment is expected to worsen for the month of October. We see further upside pressures in the pair towards 0.9500 continuing into next week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9435 (1.0592)
Resistance: 0.9470 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9360-0.9493 (1.0534-1.0684)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed all, and then some, of its gains made last week against the New Zealand Dollar retreating from 1.0760 (0.9295) to 1.0550 (0.9480) in just a few days. The kiwi rallied Wednesday after the RBNZ announcement turned out to be less dovish than markets were anticipating. The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as well as the large asset purchases program. The committee agreed that additional stimulus would be provided through a “funding for Lending Program” (FLP) starting in December. This would allow the central bank to pass on cheap funding to banks. Into Friday the kiwi has held onto gains as investors weigh up prospects of “carry trade” incentives heading into 2021. The RBNZ may not drop the cash rate to 0.10% until May. A daily close past 0.9470 (1.0560) spells trouble for the AUD.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9445 AUDNZD 1.0583
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0545- 1.0727 AUDNZD 0.9322- 0.9483

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) heading into Tuesday sessions climbing to 0.9380 (1.0660) from 0.9320 (1.0730) Monday. The RBNZ will reiterate a negative rate stance tomorrow when they meet but this won’t take effect until early 2021. The current cash rate is 0.25% which is expected to remain. Instead Orr could discuss further details regarding their “large Scale Asset Purchase” facilities and forward guidance. Given the RBA have already cut their rate to 0.10% last week we may see further upside “carry trade” NZD buyers come forward over the next few weeks based on the attractiveness of buying kiwi with a better return. The prior high at 0.9435 (1.0600) looks our preferred outcome for price to retest this area over the coming days/weeks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9371 (1.0664)
Resistance: 0.9445 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9305 (1.0590)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9295-0.9430 (1.0605-1.0758)

A solid rebound by the Australian Dollar over the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has taken price to 0.9302 (1.0750) Friday a 3 week low. The RBA dropped the official cash rate from 0.25% to 0.10% Tuesday and added an extra 100B worth of buying to the 5 and 10 year govt bonds in efforts to boost the flow of money in the economy. They also made mention of inflation targets of 2-3% band being achievable over the next two years and obtaining a much lower unemployment rate. The RBA won’t raise the cash rate for at least 3 years. NZ’s Unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.3% midweek for the third quarter putting added pressure on the kiwi. Looking ahead we have RBNZ Cash Rate announcement Wednesday with no change expected.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9324 AUDNZD 1.0713
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9295- 0.9433 AUDNZD 1.0600- 1.0758

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground to the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week, the Aussie clawing back losses from 0.9435 (1.0600) high to 0.9395 (1.0640) midday Tuesday. Long Term resistance back to July at 0.9460 held as we head into today’s RBA meeting and Melbourne Cup. The RBA is widely forecast to cut rates from 0.25% to 0.10% to further support a flailing economy with further bond buying predicted as efforts ramp up to keep unemployment low and boost inflation. Wednesday’s NZ jobs data and Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to over 5.0% for the third quarter from 4.0% second quarter. We think pressure should remain on the kiwi over the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9400 (1.0635)
Resistance: 0.9460 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0570)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9369-0.9440 (1.0593-1.0674)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines continue to extend against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price surging towards 0.9450 (1.0580) midday Friday. The Aussie fought back midweek to 0.9380 (1.0660) around the quarterly CPI release but was unable to push on. Consumer prices rose slightly by 1.6% in the latest quarter to September reflecting a rebound. The annual index increased by 0.7% from the second quarter, up on estimates of 0.6%. The biggest contributor to the number was childcare which returned from “free care” during the June coronavirus led quarter result. Heavy resistance on the chart at 0.9460 (1.0570) should offer an AUD reprieve, above this level and anything is possible back at early 2020 levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9425 AUDNZD 1.0612
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9369- 0.9440 AUDNZD 1.0593- 1.0673

Our view on a return to 0.9400 (1.0638) pre weekly close was bang on with price bouncing off this level back to 0.9380 in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair. We saw another attempt by the kiwi to push into new territory Monday again but 0.9400 (1.0638) was rejected to the 0.9375 (1.0665) region. NZ markets took a break yesterday with “Labour Day Holiday” creating thin pricing. On the calendar is Australian 3rd quarter CPI printing Wednesday expected to be circa 1.5% inflation which will be clearly capped by the recent coronavirus outbreak in the state of Victoria. Watch for another test at 0.9400 (1.0638) and a possible break into early July levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9370 (1.0665)
Resistance: 0.9435 (1.1000)
Support: 0.9090 (1.0600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9324-0.9400 (1.0638-1.0725)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its bull run through 0.9350 (1.0695) this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on its way to a fresh mid-July high of 0.9394 (1.0645) early Friday. Aussie traders brought back the Aussie into midday Friday to 0.9354 (1.0690) as the kiwi tapered off after CPI released. CPI third quarter came in at 0.7% not too bad all things considered but slightly down on the 0.9% expected. We think the cross will make another go at 0.9400 before the weekly close, certainly with Australian third quarter CPI expected to be around zero next week we could see an early squeeze higher in the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9364 AUDNZD 1.0669
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9320- 0.9394

As the Australian Bureau of Statistics released jobs numbers the Australian Dollar (AUD) fell away against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a weekly high of 0.9345 (1.0700). The number of employed fell 29,000 in September following a jump in August numbers of 129,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 6.9% from 6.8% also putting added pressure on the AUD. Lowe spoke Thursday reinforcing comments of a rate cut as early as 3rd November to 0.10% and RBNZ’s Hawkesbury also, all but confirmed negative rates are a given possibly later this year or early 2021. Price on the chart has bounced off pivotal resistance circa 0.9330 (1.0715) the high from late July. We think this should hold with the AUD making a comeback into the close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9314 AUDNZD 1.0729
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0703- 1.0859 AUDNZD 0.9209- 0.9343

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains in recent ranges Tuesday with very little movement to start the week, the pair trading around the 0.9225 (1.0840) area. Australia’s Financial Stability Review highlighted many ongoing issues facing the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, of special note- sadly, some businesses will never recover and that widespread credit defaults are vast. Some households have experienced significant falls in income due to job losses or reduced working hours but have been supported by government income support relief. Looking ahead we see Aussie jobs numbers on docket with unemployment numbers expected to clock a higher number for September over August’s 6.8%. Any price moves this week should be limited to the recent 0.9175 (1.0900) – 0.9295 (1.0760) range.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9219 (1.0839)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0920)
Support: 0.9160 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9179-0.9300 (1.0753-1.0894)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied Wednesday reversing earlier losses from 0.9295 (1.0760) and reached 0.9180 (1.0890) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). As we said in the earlier commentary – recent movement represents the long term continuation of lower highs and lower lows on the chart along with a solid bounce off the 100 day moving average suggesting further downside is the order of play. The RBA left rates unchanged at 0.25% and said they were comfortable with current policy, but it was the RBNZ chief economist who let the cat out of the bag by saying they were gearing up for negative rates sooner rather than later which spooked NZD buyers. Support is seen at the 0.9140 (1.0940) level, we don’t expect the cross to break this area over the next few days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9190 AUDNZD 1.0873
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9179- 0.9294 AUDNZD 1.0759- 1.0894

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross started the week around 0.9275 (1.0780) levels and was quick to extend late last week’s Aussie gains to 0.9240 (1.0820) into Tuesday. This marks the long-term continuation of lower highs and lower lows on the chart along with a solid bounce off the 100 day moving average suggesting further downside is the order of play. This week’s main calendar event is the RBA meeting with no expectation of a shift from 0.25% but possible speak around further stimulus and a rate cut- potentially to 0.10% looming. Recent lockdowns in the state of Victoria have changed things up with analysts expecting more action on the monetary policy front. Expected direction this week – upside for the AUD.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9244 (1.0804)
Resistance: 0.9285 (1.0850)
Support: 0.9215 (1.0770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9217-0.9290 (1.0764-1.0849)

After a low on Wednesday of 0.9215 (pretty much on our support level) the NZD has enjoyed a better couple of days against the AUD now trading back at 0.9260. With the feeling that the RBNZ may have put negative rates on hold for the time being giving the NZD some legs, pressure will remain on the AUD as next week’s RBA meeting looms. A rate cut would knock the AUD back towards the 0.9330 level on this cross with even some strong RBA rhetoric around lower rates likely to have a negative effect on AUD values.
Over the day the 0.9230-0.9270 range should hold up until tonight’s USD jobs data , but next week , although RBA dependent, potential exists for a push to the 0.9330/60 level then major resistance at 0.9470.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9261 AUDNZD 1.0790
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9217- 0.9324 AUDNZD 1.0725- 1.0849

The NZD/AUD cross opens around 0.9263 this morning holding at levels marginally below yesterday’s close after a high around 0.9330 last week. With little NZ data this week and the election result pretty much a forgone conclusion (Continuation of a Labour led government) focus will stay on the RBA and its meeting next week. With market consensus that the RBA is looking at another rate cut, look for volatility and more downward pressure on the AUD as we head into next week. Although further risk-off sell-offs would affect both currencies on this cross, the NZD is normally harder hit but any NZD pullback should hold around the 0.9215 level, .however we favour a move back over 0.9300 on this cross as we approach next week’s RBA meeting. Clients who have AUD to sell for NZD should look at levels to transact this business ahead of next week’s RBA meet.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9260 (1.0793)
Resistance: 0.9328 (1.0850)
Support: 0.9216 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9217-0.9330 (1.0717-1.0849)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is looking to close the week out with some mild gains against its Australian cousin, the AUD. The pair opened the week around the 0.9275 level and initially drifted lower trading to 0.9217 before staging a comeback to currently trade just under 0.9300. The AUD has underperformed the NZD this week as concerns have crept into the market about a potential RBA interest rate cut in October. It’s not a widely held view at this stage, but there are some economists call it. We’ve also seen some forecasts for iron ore to decline during the 4th quarter of this year, potentially trade down toward $80.00 by 2121. Iron ore has been one of the real positives supporting the AUD in recent months with the price trading up over $125.00 per ton in early September. If the iron ore price does continue to decline, currently it’s around $118.00, then the NZDAUD cross could easily climb back toward 0.9450. Clients looking to transfer AUD to NZD should consider current levels as still reasonably attractive.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9287 AUDNZD 1.0768
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9217 – 0.9303 AUDNZD 1.0749 – 1.0850

Price reversed off 0.9275 (1.0780) during early Monday trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair reaching 0.9215 (1.0850) in Tuesday sessions. We talked about the kiwi being a tad overvalued and unusually stable across major pairs and this correction confirms this. With the RBNZ monetary policy and cash rate announcement tomorrow, the weekly highlight, we expect some dovishness from governor Orr as he speculates on negative rates and extending the QE program. RBA deputy governor Debelle spoke of possible currency intervention as a policy option which in turn sent the AUD lower midday to 0.9230 (1.0835). We may see the kiwi ease lower through 0.9200 (1.0870) style levels around tomorrow’s announcements.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9237 (1.0817)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.1000)
Support: 0.9090 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9166-0.9289 (1.0766-1.091)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to its 6 week long term resistance level at 0.9250 (1.0810) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week after an array of data published causing the cross to bounce around. Reversing all its gains made the week earlier from 0.9150 (1.0930) the Aussie lost buyer support. The kiwi gained momentum post NZ second quarter releasing at -12.0% after -12.0% was widely predicted, which is strange given the NZ economy officially dropped into its second recession in a decade marking the quarterly result the worst in NZ history. Australian unemployment printed considerably lower than the 7.7% predicted at 6.8% a fantastic result bringing back buyers of AUD for a while.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9252 AUDNZD 1.0802
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9153- 0.9256 AUDNZD 1.0803- 1.0925

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) opened around the 0.9130 zone Monday but was sharply higher by midday to 0.9200 (1.0870) levels. It’s tough to put a reason for the kiwi mini rally except to pin it on early week wholesale large market orders. Jacinda Ardern chimed in later Monday with the eventual easing of Covid restrictions in NZ and the ability of flights to now be booked out to full capacity (with masks). The news saw a flood of fresh flight bookings – clearly great for the economy and the NZD. Two key data releases print Thursday with NZ second quarter GDP first, then Aussie jobs numbers. NZ GDP to June is expected to be anywhere from -8.0% to -17.0%, the pair will be very volatile around this time. We think direction this week in the cross to head towards 0.9100 (1.0990) levels.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9183 (1.0884)
Resistance: 0.9240 (1.0960)
Support: 0.9125 (1.0820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9144-0.9211 (1.0857-1.0936)

We spoke about a retest of 0.9130 (1.0950) in the previous commentary and we were not far off with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross reaching 0.9145 (1.0935) early Friday with the kiwi reversing most of last week’s gains from 0.9220 (1.0840) It’s been a quiet week of data with just the NAB Business confidence to reflect on with the index showing a optimism is still tender as employment, spending particularly in Victoria fell deep into a second wave of coronavirus lockdowns. Next week’s NZ second quarter GDP release followed by Aussie employment data for August will be where our attention is.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9156 AUDNZD 1.0913
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9144- 0.9225 AUDNZD 1.0840- 1.0936

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed off 0.9240 (1.0820) towards the end of the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending its support higher into early Tuesday sessions to 0.9190 (1.0880). Despite second quarter Australian GDP coming in weaker at -7.0% instead of the anticipated -6.0%, Aussie moves lower have been restricted by a dovish RBNZ as they signalled a loosening of monetary policy with talk of negative rates to come. On the calendar this week we only have NAB Business Confidence this afternoon. Expected direction this week: retest of 0.9130 (1.0950)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9193 (1.0871)
Resistance: 0.9260 (1.0950)
Support: 0.9130 (1.0800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9124-0.9252 (1.0809-1.096)

As we commented recently the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week extending last week’s momentum to 0.9240 (1.0820) early Friday Sessions. The RBNZ signalled no direct concerns for the NZD being overvalued with Orr starting conversations around the prospects of negative rates later in the year early 2021. The RBA will maintain its highly accommodative policy settings for as long as needed with Lowe saying the road to recovery will be long and bumpy- especially as the virus in Victoria has had a terrible effect on the economy. Second quarter GDP confirmed a weakened economy to the end of June with figures showing a drop of 7.0% from the 6.0% expected. This puts Australia formally in recession.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9223 AUDNZD 1.0837
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9124- 0.9252 AUDNZD 1.0808- 1.0960

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surprisingly gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) last week from 0.9130 (1.0950) levels to 0.9175 (1.0900) at the close. Into Tuesday sessions the Aussie is outperforming the NZD back to 0.9125 (1.0960) as markets await this afternoon’s key RBA announcement. The RBA is not likely to ease any time in the next few couple of years with confirmation expected for the RBA to not go down the road of negative rates. However we expect the RBA to be broadly negative or have a dovish economic view of things to come. Of equal importance is the second quarter GDP data prints tomorrow in Australia which should come in around -6.0% on top of the -0.3% for the first quarter. We think the AUD could lose some value over the following few days trading.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9123 (1.0952)
Resistance: 0.9240 (1.1050)
Support: 0.9050 (1.0820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9091-0.9176 (1.0898-1.1000)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) Wednesday after the cross sat around 0.9110 (1.0980) levels early in the week reaching 0.9170 (1.0905). However, the AUD has pushed back into Friday to regain early losses to 0.9140 (1.0940). Bearish channel resistance has been broken from early July offering an indication of a possible fight back from the kiwi. Next week’s RBA holds the key with the cash rate and statement announcements in focus. Lockdown restrictions get relaxed Monday to level 2 with businesses able to re-open. Perhaps this could be kiwi supportive.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9137 AUDNZD 1.0934
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9089- 0.9175 AUDNZD 1.0899- 1.1002

Price post the weekly open continued lower for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9105 (1.0980) favouring recent channel resistance to the downside from early July. NZ Retail Sales Monday published ahead of predictions in the June quarter at -14.6% compared to -16.3% expected but make no mistake, this is a terrible result. Retailers in the coronavirus affected the second quarter have indeed struggled with forecasts outlook to be worse in the September quarter. Given the dovish RBNZ this could send the cross below 0.9000. First it must break past recent support at 0.9050. The last time the cross traded at 0.9000 (1.1110) was in August 2018. Australian construction q/q prints tomorrow with forecast of -6.5%. Anything worse than this could see the kiwi rebound.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9100 (1.0984)
Resistance: 0.9150 (1.1030)
Support: 0.9070 (1.0930)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9056-0.9151 (1.0928-1.1043)

Recent action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair has seen the Aussie regain momentum heading into the weekend as it tries to break into fresh ground. Currently around the 0.9070 (1.1020) level and eying long term support at 0.9050 (1.1043) seen earlier this week (August 2018) levels. There was no indication from Governor Lowe in the RBA Minutes to repurchase government bonds when he said he didn’t think the central bank would gain any traction from making further adjustments to policy. Fallout from the dovish RBNZ should ensure the AUD stays in favour. Support is at 0.9000 (1.1110) should hold until Monday unless NZ Retail Sales for the second quarter prints poorly.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9062 AUDNZD 1.1022
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9055- 0.9148 AUDNZD 1.0930- 1.1043

Recent interest in the Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued into the new week outperforming the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9090 (1.1000) levels into Tuesday trading. Last week’s dovish RBNZ and surprisingly good Aussie jobs numbers have maintained momentum firmly with the AUD, as we head into a week of slim pickings for economic data. There was no indication from Governor Lowe Friday to repurchase govt bonds when he said he didn’t think the central bank would gain any traction from making further adjustments to policy. Clearly this was seen as a positive. The bearish structure we are seeing on the chart in various timeframes is now well established below recent support at 0.9210 (1.0860). With coronavirus on the rise in NZ it’s hard to see the kiwi perking up, at least this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9072 (1.1022)
Resistance: 0.9190 (1.1090)
Support: 0.9015 (1.0880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9069-0.9231 (1.0833-1.1027)

A dovish RBNZ spooked investors into selling the kiwi Wednesday against the Australian Dollar taking price to an October 2018 level of 0.9160 (1.0920) Although the RBNZ left rates unchanged at 0.25% the central bank increased its asset buying program and spoke of the possibility of taking rates into negative territory is a deteriorating covid inflicted economy warranted it. The kiwi was also sold off when Australian employment data showed a solid improvement in the July figures increasing by 114,000 from the 30,000 expected. With Covid impacting Victoria industry and spending over the last couple of weeks due to a rise in new cases we expect jobs numbers to worsen in the coming months. A retest of long-term support at 0.9100 could be on the cards if momentum in the AUD should continue. Next week’s calendar looks thin, we expect the cross to consolidate around current levels for a bit.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9154 AUDNZD 1.0916
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9156- 0.9239 AUDNZD 1.0823- 1.0921

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has put gains on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the 5th straight week reaching 0.9215 (1.0850), early June levels, Tuesday. The phycological 0.9200 (1.0870) the low of October 2018 should hold? But if the cross passes this mark for any length of time we could see the kiwi in trouble. The main focus over the week is the RBNZ cash rate and policy announcement – the central bank is under pressure to increase the bond buying programme (LSAP) from 60B to 90B with talk also around prospects of negative rates in later months. A dovish read of sorts is what we expect however. Late in the week we have Aussie job’s data with unemployment predicted to rise to 7.8% from 7.4%. Expected week direction: NZD recovery to 0.9300 (1.0750)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9214 (1.0845)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0870)
Support: 0.9200 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9196-0.9303 (1.0749-1.0874)

US Dollar (USD) weakness over the week has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) more so than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with action close to recent lows at 0.9210 (1.0860) deep into Friday. The surge in commodity products including Gold has supported the Aussie. Phycological 0.9200 looks like it will hold for the while until next week’s RBNZ release. The RBNZ will be under pressure to increase its bond buying programme (LSAP) from 60B to 90B with the aim of injecting further money into the economy and lowering borrowing costs to businesses and households. Expect the RBNZ to therefore be dovish next week as the market starts to question levels around 0.9200 (1.0870) – 0.9300 (1.0750).
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9240 AUDNZD 1.0817
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9208- 0.9332 AUDNZD 1.0715- 1.0860

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) holds a consolidating pattern in Tuesday trading around 0.9295 (1.0760) as the pair looks for directional cues. Today’s RBA should give us plenty of volatility when Governor Lowe announces the cash rate and policy statement. No change is expected from the 0.25% for some time but we are expecting a hawkish style statement. Tomorrow’s NZ unemployment figures should reflect a small rise to unemployment as the country rebounds from coronavirus well. Expected weekly direction: NZD to recover recent losses to 0.9345 (1.0700)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9291 (1.0754)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9259-0.9370 (1.0672-1.0800)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached an 8-week low against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Thursday of 0.9260 (1.0800) weighed down by US weakness which supported the Aussie, the NZD failed to arrive at the party. Growing concerns of new coronavirus cases in Victoria have had no detrimental effects on the AUD to date with booming mining conditions underpinning the currency. We are unlikely to see smooth sailing ahead in the Australian economy with further rises in unemployment and coronavirus stunting third quarter growth. A pullback from 0.9233 (1.0830) levels to 0.9365 (1.0680) would confirm this.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9284 AUDNZD 1.0763
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9259- 0.9372 AUDNZD 1.0670- 1.0800

The Australian Dollar (AUD) backtracked to 0.9365 (1.0680) levels at the weekly close after being at 0.9300 (1.0750) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Early week trading has been AUD supportive with price pushing to 0.9340 (1.0705) into Tuesday. Despite growing coronavirus numbers in Australia, in particular Victoria, it’s largely all going swimmingly at the moment for the Aussie as the mining industry with iron ore prices continues to rise as Chinese Industrial Production booms. Australian Inflation for the second quarter is expected to show a decline of -2.0%, anything worse than this could lead the RBA to re-think policy at the next (4 August) RBA meeting. 0.9300 (1.0750) should hold this week, the triple bottom support level.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9335 (1.0704)
Resistance: 0.9390 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9300-0.9379 (1.0662-1.0753)

The Australian dollar (AUD) outperformed the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the first half of this week, driving the pair to a low of 0.9300 (1.0753) on Wednesday. The RBA minutes released on Tuesday afternoon showed the central bank believes the AUD is in line with fundamentals and that they were comfortable with its current level. Continued strong iron ore prices are providing underlying support for the AUD with a very good long-term correlation between the two. With iron ore prices expected to remain supported it would be a tough call to bet against the AUD at this stage. Currently trading at 0.9345 (1.0701), we could easily see another test of the 0.9300 level in the coming days. Any break below 0.9300 (1.0753) would open the way for a test into the low 0.92’s (1.08’s). The highlight of next week’s economic calendar will be Australian inflation data set for release on Wednesday.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9335 AUDNZD 1.0712
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9300 – 0.9385 AUDNZD 1.0655 – 1.0753

The Australian Dollar (AUD) finished the week well, reaching 1.0670 (0.9370) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Into Tuesday the cross is still around this area and the bias is with the Aussie as we approach the RBA minutes this afternoon. RBA Minutes from the 7 July policy meeting are not expected to show any surprises but reflect recent rhetoric with the 3-year yield target on govt bonds maintained until full employment and inflation targets are reached. The Australian minister for resources said earlier that Australia’s mining and energy sectors were underpinning the domestic economy due to China industrials demand in the face of coronavirus. Retail Sales published tomorrow in Australia the only data of note on the docket this week. Price in the pair we think could be AUD supportive with daily support at 0.9330 (1.0715) perhaps retested.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9393 (1.0678)
Resistance: 0.9470 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9353-0.9432 (1.0602-1.0692)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has underperformed this week against a buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) especially in the first part half of the week when NZ politics fell apart after National Party leader Todd Muller resigned. He was replaced by Judith Collins as the new leader just 67 days out from the election. Even though coronavirus has ripped through the state of Victoria in Australia together with weaker jobs numbers printing the Aussie has remained perky. The Unemployment Rate printed slightly higher than markets were predicting at 7.4% vs 7.2% re-confirming tough times ahead for the Australian economy. Price consolidated around 0.9390 (1.0650) with the cross looking for additional directional cues. The AUD looks to target the next support zone at 0.9300 (1.0750).
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9367 AUDNZD 1.0663
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9353- 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0570- 1.0691

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell sharply Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) from 0.9460 (1.0570) to 0.9420 (1.0620) after news that the NZ National Party leader Todd Muller resigned for health reasons. Shocked national MP’s will get together tonight to mull over who the new National party leader could be. This no doubt will take a heavy toll on the party just 67 days out from the election. Victoria coronavirus is still giving grief to the state as the chief health minister said the virus may not as yet have hit its peak. Today they have 177 new cases. We see stiff resistance on the chart at 0.9500 (1.0530) and think the cross will support the Aussie into Thursday especially if jobs data for June print well.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9407 (1.0620)
Resistance: 0.9470 (1.0660)
Support: 0.9380 (1.0560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9393-0.9471 (1.0559-1.0646)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) advanced this week into Friday to 0.9430 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) continuing its 3-week run from the low of 0.9300 (1.0750) late June. RBA’s Lowe maintained the current 0.25% cash rate Tuesday choosing to stick with current policy. He said although indicators have picked up over the last few weeks the worst of the global economic downturn has passed. Big call, with outlook to remain bumpy especially as they try to contain coronavirus in Victoria. A return to lockdown in Melbourne for the next 6 weeks will hurt the Victorian economy as tourism and business falters. We favour further rises in the kiwi for now, next week’s NZ CPI q/q and Aussie Unemployment Rate could shake up the pair.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9433 AUDNZD 1.0593
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0588- 1.0661 AUDNZD 0.9379- 0.9444

The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week on the front foot against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelling from 0.9420 (1.0620) off the open to 0.9370 (1.0670) late Monday before reversing. Australian Consumer Confidence has dropped to an 8-week low contributing to losses for the Aussie with price back at 0.9410 Tuesday. We now await the RBA cash rate and monetary policy later today, no change from the 0.25% is guaranteed with the statement expected in a low key meeting, however we could see some talk around the high AUD. We think the pair could bounce around current levels for a while.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9408 (1.0623)
Resistance: 0.9450 (1.0730)
Support: 0.9320 (1.0580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9330-0.9430 (1.0606-1.0720)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained within recent ranges over the week- the Aussie easing to 0.9400 (1.0630) levels from 0.9345 (1.0700) as risk sentiment improved the kiwi. Australian Trade Balance came in at 8.03B compared to the 9.0B expected putting pressure on the AUD. Aussie Retail Sales came in higher than the expected 16.3% for May at 16.9% perking buyer interest back in the AUD. Towards the weekly close the cross will continue to bob around current levels through to next week’s RBA monetary statement and cash rate announcement.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9406 AUDNZD 1.0621
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9330- 0.9430 AUDNZD 1.0605- 1.0720

A quiet week on the data front suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) wont stray far from 0.9345 (1.0700). However, with recent momentum supporting the Aussie over the last two weeks and the price pushing above the 100 day moving average we could see shifts towards 0.9300 (1.0750) towards week’s end. Aussie Trade Balance figures Thursday may create some excitement but probably not. Plans to ease back restrictions in Victoria this week were canned based on a bunch of new cases. Australia got complacent and relaxed what feeble quarantine/isolation measures they had – the result is that Covid-19 is not going anywhere fast and will impact the economy for some time. Never whistle until you pass the village.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9344 (1.0693)
Resistance: 0.9380 (1.0740)
Support: 0.9310 (1.0660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9301-0.9388 (1.0652-1.0751)

Early in the week RBA Lowe’s comments helped send the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9300 (1.0755) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) assisted by a dovish RBNZ Wednesday. RBNZ’s Orr delivered a dovish straight bat account of forward guidance. Risks remain to the downside for the kiwi with a lot of work yet to be done to escape the jaws of coronavirus. If necessary Orr said he would expand on the govt QE package of 60B and did the opposite to the RBA by saying the economy needs a weaker NZD to support export earnings. Looking ahead we have ANZ business Confidence Tuesday and Aussie Trade Balance Thursday to keep an eye on. We think the cross will bounce around current levels deep into next week.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9339 AUDNZD 1.0701
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9298- 0.9409 AUDNZD 1.0628- 1.0755

A quiet start to the week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen action bounce around 0.9380 (1.0660). Initial moves supported the kiwi to 0.9410 (1.0630) but once RBA’s Lowe spoke yesterday the Aussie recovered. Lowe’s comments gave the Aussie a boost when he talked up economic outlook and said he preferred a lower AUD but current levels were fine. RBNZ’s Orr speaks tomorrow at the cash rate and monetary policy meeting. Markets are speculating he may give a dovish review and talk down the kiwi, to stimulate the economy. This could clearly send messages to investors to exit NZD. With coronavirus cases increasing in NZ and particularly in Victoria prospects of a “travel bubble” are pretty much dead in the water. We don’t think the NZDAUD cross is going anywhere soon from its current 0.9300 (1.0750) – 0.9400 (1.0640) band.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9357 (1.0681)
Resistance: 0.9400 (1.0720)
Support: 0.9330 (1.0640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9322-0.9407 (1.063-1.0727)

With poor data printing on both sides of the Tasman the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been volatile this week, some would say finding its feet. Pushing higher to 0.9450 (1.0580) early in the week the kiwi failed to push on drifting back to (0.9320) 1.0730 midweek before clawing back losses to 0.9370 (1.0670) Friday. RBA minutes from the last meeting confirmed the usual rhetoric around downside risks before NZ GDP data shook up the kiwi sending it lower. First quarter GDP, released at -1.6% vs -1.0% predicted, the largest first quarter drop in 29 years as the country feels the effects of lockdown on the economy. Aussie Retail Sales for May later today could provide further direction for the pair.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9367 AUDNZD 1.0678
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9450 AUDNZD 1.0582- 1.0728

With China having issues with coronavirus, second wave cases in Beijing I would think the recent bullish run in the Australian Dollar (AUD) may have a limited shelf life. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sank to 0.9340 (1.0710) after being at 0.9450 (1.0580) in early Monday trading but anything towards 0.9320 (1.0730) looks oversold. The Aussie unemployment rate is forecast to jump to 7.0% from 6.2% in Thursday’s announcement prior to Retail Sales for May. Event risk for the Aussie looks to send the kiwi higher in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9333 (1.0706)
Resistance: 0.9505 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0520)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9322-0.9450 (1.0582-1.0727)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) waivered mid-week dropping back to 0.9320 (1.0730) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but has regained its losses into Friday trading back to 0.9400 (1.0635). Both ANZ Business Confidence figures and NAB Business Confidence printed slightly better than predicted. Aussie NAB figures highlight an improvement in activity with confidence levels a little more positive in May. We are still far above the long run average of similar depths seen during the GFC in 2008 as we start to see slow economic improvements. Resistance is the daily close at 0.9420 (1.0620), a break above here and we could see further upside bias to 0.9505 (1.0520)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9397 AUDNZD 1.0632
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9408 AUDNZD 1.0629- 1.0728

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to make advances into Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing all of last week’s losses trading back at 0.9355 (1.0690). The Aussie has made decent gains over other crosses over the past few days but with no coronavirus cases reported now in NZ – the kiwi has been favoured. NZ Business Confidence improved 9 points to -33% with firms less negative over the future outlook of the NZ economy. The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism have issued a warning against travel to Australia citing a significant increase in racist attacks on Chinese and Asian people. This headline is significant and could filter into downward pressure on the AUD. We are forecasting a return to 0.9500 (1.0520).
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9346 (1.0687)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9235 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9192-0.9363 (1.068-1.0879)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to drag its feet over the preferred Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9200 (1.0870) Wednesday. The current level represents resistance from the early March low. The RBA’s Lowe confirmed current policy yesterday and vowed to upscale its bond purchases to do whatever the economy needs to remain functional. Australian Current Account published at 8.4B surplus, much higher than the 6.3B expected based on the inability to trade internationally because of coronavirus causes, this gave the news pushed the AUD higher. Aussie GDP releases later today and is expected to come in at -0.4% for the first quarter (ending March) which could have a negative impact on the AUD.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9215 (1.0844)
Resistance: 0.9330 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9192-0.9376 (1.0665-1.0879)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s recovery against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9365 (1.0680) Friday after reversing off 0.9235 (1.0830). Media attention around China being upset with Australia’s investigation into coronavirus is heating up with China saying the relationship could be damaged beyond repair and will continue to pressure the AUD. Next week’s Aussie Current Account along with the RBA cash rate and statement will hold attention as NZ takes Monday off for Queen’s Birthday. We don’t expect the price to travel back to the earlier lows in the near term.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9336 AUDNZD 1.0701
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9310- 0.9385 AUDNZD 1.0655- 1.0740

The NZD/AUD cross continues to hold within the 0.9372-0.9325 range over the last week and looks to be consolidating around the low 0.9300’s region. We favour the NZD on this cross, as trade tensions between Australia and China continue to ramp-up , the NZD is not immune from any major AUD fallout but should hold ground on the cross if AUD offshore selling emerges.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9322 (1.0719)
Resistance: 0.9389 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9233 (1.0650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9236-0.9373 (1.0668-1.0827)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke fresh levels through prior support at 0.9340 (1.0710) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Wednesday on its way to 0.9233 (1.0830) topping out at the September 2019 low before falling back into Friday to 0.9330 (1.0720). The RBA minutes confirmed the central bank was prepared to beef up Govt Bond purchases if necessary but the current package was broadly feeding into the economy well. The NZ National party has elected a new leader with news just out that Todd Miller has overpowered Simon Bridges for the race for leadership. Muller’s preference for a deputy is Nikki Kaye. Punters recently have preferred the Aussie with risk sentiment high, but with China and US tensions back making headlines we could see Aussie weakness develop.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9317 AUDNZD 1.0724
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0701- 1.0829 AUDNZD 0.9234- 0.9344

The Australian Dollar (AUD) stretched its legs in another wave of defiance last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to fresh lows around 0.9240 (1.0835). This week into Tuesday sessions price has consolidated somewhat around this low as markets await the RBA minutes later today. It’s not as if the kiwi has been underperforming lately, on the contrary, the NZD has also seen decent bouts of bullishness against other pairs. Oddly enough investors have preferred the Aussie going back to the mid-March highs close to parity. As Trade tensions heat up and Chinese business could see closures again on second wave coronavirus fears we are picking a heavy reversal and could see the pair take a look at 0.9520 (1.0500) levels in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9545 (1.0816)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0860)
Support: 0.9210 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9234-0.9420 (1.0616-1.0829)

Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 0.9390 (1.0650) to 0.9275 (1.0780) Wednesday after a dovish read from Governor Adrian Orr shocked markets by saying he was not ruling out negative rates later in the year. The cash rate remains at 0.25% with an additional 30B QE added to the Asset Purchase programme. Surprisingly poor Aussie jobs numbers seemed ignored by punters when Australia released its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected however falls in the AUD were perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as forecast (6.2% v 8.3%). With price around 0.9295 (1.0760) Friday morning making fresh lows- it has to be said we feel the AUD is wildly overvalued.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9291 AUDNZD 1.0763
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9278- 0.9421 AUDNZD 1.0614- 1.0778

With strong links to the Chinese economy the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce off dips against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and outperform. Price into Tuesday retreated off the high of 0.9415 (1.0620) to 0.9365 (1.0680) and looks to retest last week’s low of 0.9345 (1.0700) as we head into a busy week for both currencies. The RBNZ cash rate will be announced tomorrow and will remain at 0.25% with comments by Orr to be centered around adding additional stimulus to the NZ economy by expanding our QE program. Looking to Thursday we will get a look at how the Australian is tracking amid coronavirus when key employment figures release. Expectations are that a jump of 550,000 people will be added to the unemployment cue in April – up from 5.2% in March. We have been talking up a reversal of this cross but it’s yet to happen, last week’s 0.9300 (1.0750) is in jeopardy.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9402 (1.0629)
Resistance: 0.9450 (1.0740)
Support: 0.9310 (1.0580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9348-0.9430 (1.0605-1.0698)

Risk on markets has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week more so than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price returning to 0.9345 (1.0700) Friday from midweek’s high of 0.9460 (1.0570). Chinese Trade data surprised markets offsetting the earlier Aussie bearish mood turning heads and giving momentum back to the AUD. Earlier in the week the RBA left the cash rate at 0.25% at its policy meeting with the board saying they won’t increase the cash rate until full employment is reached and they can be confident inflation can be sustained within the 2-3% band. The successful containment of coronavirus and strong policy support should see both the AUD and kiwi in favourable positions on a global front. As improving Chinese data comes in we could see the AUD outperform the NZD for a while. Massive support at 0.9305 (1.0750) holds a significant level, getting past here is like entering a wormhole to another dimension.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9380 AUDNZD 1.0660
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9347- 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0570- 1.0698

The big come back story of the Australian Dollar (AUD) of late hit a roadblock mid last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross coming off a low of 0.9300 (1.0750) to head into the weekly close around 0.9435 (1.0600). The kiwi looks stable heading into Tuesday with predictions we may be seeing a reversal in the kiwi and a solid base in the pair forming. On its way higher the kiwi may be met with resistance at 0.9505 (1.0520). Certainly, today’s RBA rate decision could be key followed by tomorrow’s NZ unemployment rate read. With Standard and Poor’s rating agency reaffirming NZ’s long term foreign currency debt at AA this could support the kiwi for a while longer. Price is pivoting around the 20-day moving average- if we see a break to 0.9480 (1.0550) we may see the kiwi strengthen further.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9408 (1.0619)
Resistance: 0.9460 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0570)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9301-0.9460 (1.0571-1.0751)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.9300 (1.0750) overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after pushing past last week’s low of 0.9400 (1.0640) into new territory. We feel the Aussie is well overbought as do other market analysts suggesting we could see a reversal develop. Technical drivers point to anything pre 0.9240 (1.0820) as extreme levels dating back to September 2018. Australian coronavirus is key to any improvement as Morrison relaxes restrictions, he has launched mobile software to assist with virus monitoring amid concerns of privacy breaches. He said it was not compulsory for people to download the app; he flagged it as necessary to relax current restrictions further. Downside bias in the cross we think is limited to 0.9300 with the kiwi expected to appreciate over the coming days/weeks.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9341 (1.0693)
Resistance: 0.9500 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9398-0.9546 (1.0475-1.0640)

All indicators in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair suggest a bounce off the recent low of 0.9400 (1.0640). But, although we have seen moderate weakness in the Aussie through the middle stages of this week it’s returned to form into Friday with price back at 0.9415 (1.0620), to a late November 2019 low. Coronavirus numbers on both sides of the Tasman have been fantastic of late as both countries go head to head with who can come out better off health and economically. The strength in the Aussie may be cut short as the near-term drivers suggest 0.9352 (1.0655) offers huge support.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9420 AUDNZD 1.0607
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9398- 0.9542 AUDNZD 1.0479- 1.0640

As we commented earlier, as soon as we had a lockdown change we would see improvements in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) develop against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The kiwi has come off its recent low of 0.9420 (1.0620) bouncing higher to trade around the 0.9530 (1.0490) Tuesday as restrictions over lockdown 4 will be relaxed to lockdown level 3 on the 27th of April were announced Monday. Breaking above 0.9506 (1.0520) channel resistance we may be seeing a trend change developing. NZ and Australia are still considering a post lockdown “trans-Tasman bubble” if infections in both countries continue to decrease to manageable levels. NZ recorded 9 new infections Monday along with Australia’s 13 with both economies poised to reopen when govt’s allow. A retest of last week’s open at 0.9600 (1.0420) is on the cards.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9522 (1.0490)
Resistance: 0.9660 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9413-0.9547 (1.0475-1.0624)

The parity high we saw 4 weeks ago is a distant memory in the rear-view mirror with the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing back hard. The cross pushed through prior 2020 support at 0.9495 (1.0530) to 0.9480 (1.0550) posting a late November 2019 low. Despite NAB business confidence coming in at the worst figure on record in 47 years (-66) versus (-2) in February the AUD continues to build momentum. Coronavirus numbers in both countries have been on the slide with new cases trending lower in the past few days. I suspect its Australia’s lockdown strategy creating bullish momentum in the Aussie with less economic pain being experienced. Nearing the end of the NZ lockdown with less than a week to run in “level 4” we should see elevated buying of the NZD. We expect the kiwi to bounce back to 0.9690 (1.0320) in the coming sessions.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0566
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9462- 0.9722 AUDNZD 1.0286- 1.0569

With coronavirus numbers plateauing in Australia the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been rather perky in the last 24 hours against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the pair trading to 0.9720 (1.0290) at Tuesday lunch off the 0.9775 (1.0230) open. New Zealand Treasury announced the syndicated tap of the 1.5% coupon 15 May 2031 nominal Bond. The Treasury expects to sell at least 2.0Billion of the 15 May 2031 bond. The Bond has been well received by offshore investors and should hold the kiwi favourably going forward. Back to coronavirus- Australia has around 96 people in intensive care and they have done an enormous amount of testing-perhaps more per capita than any other country. BUT- they are still largely in partial lockdown, how have they managed to contain the virus to around 5,900 cases, I’m baffled, especially when NZ is in a full lockdown? The RBA will announce their cash rate and monetary policy today at 2.30 Sydney time with no expectation of a change from the 0.25%. However tweaks are expected to the current policy. We are picking prices to drift back to 0.9800 (1.0205) levels.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9725 (1.0270)
Resistance: 0.9805 (1.0350)
Support: 0.9660 (1.0200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9663-0.9799 (1.0205-1.0349)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s support trading to 0.9660 (1.0350) but quickly ran into seller interest. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recouped losses into Friday morning NY close to 0.9800 (1.0200). Our view from Tuesday’s commentary based on the retracement back to 0.9880 is nearly complete, we hold strong on further support for the kiwi heading into the close. The coronavirus weighed heavily in Australian service sectors for March with numbers showing a slump in business activity with a deep downturn in sales stemming from falls in overseas business, meanwhile business confidence surveys hit a record low. The lockdowns in both Australia and New Zealand and the effectiveness of measures to get on top of the virus will have an impact economically flowing through into the NZDAUD in the coming months.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9758 AUDNZD 1.0234
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9660- 0.9824 AUDNZD 1.0179- 1.0351

Markets turned risk on early morning Friday as equity indices closed 5% higher overnight. The Australian Dollar (AUD) picked up a little support against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 0.9880 (1.0120) to 0.9830 (1.0170). Coronavirus cases in Australia have passed 3,000 while in NZ we have 89 new cases Friday and a total of 300 cases. I don’t believe they have got on top of things in Australia with fatalities in 4 states. We have seen a double bounce off resistance at 0.9850 (1.0150) with bears guarding this area, expect price to retrace early week gains in the Aussie to 0.9730 (1.0280)

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9830 AUDNZD 1.0165
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9711- 0.9883 AUDNZD 1.0118- 1.0297

RBA and RBNZ stimulus plans have sent the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to all corners this week. Both Australian and NZ borders have been closed (Australia today at 9pm) which brought back a flood of buyer interest in both currencies with the announcements practically at the same time causing massive volatility spikes. Pivoting from the pair’s happy place around the 0.9900 (1.0100) level the range over the last 24 hours has been around 0.9815 (1.0188) to 0.9965 (1.0035). NZ fourth quarter GDP printed at 0.5% along with a drop in Aussie unemployment to 5.1% from 5.3% for February – both were relatively overlooked results with focus on Covid-19 driving price. We think the cross should stay around current ranges for a while, with reasonable chances we see a return to parity.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9893 AUDNZD 1.0096
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9701- 1.0006 AUDNZD 0.9994- 1.0308

The Australian Dollar (AUD) came off the weekly open in charge against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.9700 (1.0308) from 0.9815 (1.0190) but was stopped in its tracks by a surprise RBNZ announcement early Monday. The RBNZ cut rates to a historic 0.25% from 1.0%. The NZ government is under pressure to react from the economic fallout from Covid-19 as it spreads. Orr explained that the new rate would stay in place for the next 12 months. The RBA cut rates early March to 0.50% but this now won’t be enough with expectations over the coming days the RBA will cut further to 0.25% in line with other central banks. The NZD surged to 0.9978 (1.0022) last night before returning to 0.9903 (1.0098). It’s possible the pair may test parity over the coming days.

Exchange Rates
Current Level:0.9895 (1.0094)
Resistance:1.000 (1.0300)
Support:0.9710 (1.000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9590-0.9978 (1.0022-1.0428)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed this week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sliding to 1.0215 (0.9789) Friday a whopping 2.0%. Once it slipped below 1.0380 (0.9633) support the bearish decline couldn’t be stemmed. Governor Orr saying he sees no need to use alternative monetary policy instruments and the current policy is sound. That is not to say we won’t see an emergency meeting over the next few days as coronavirus worsens in NZ. So far so good. The Aussie should claw back losses in the coming days with the cross returning to 0.9700 (1.0310) levels.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9750 AUDNZD 1.0245
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9521- 0.9794 AUDNZD 1.0210- 1.0502

Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continued into Tuesday with price all over the park Monday after markets around the world suffered a mini crash. A massive range between 0.9505 (1.0520) and 0.9645 (1.0370) over one hour of trading yesterday afternoon made for incredible volatility shifts and tough times for traders. Overnight price drifted towards 0.9660 (1.0350) levels supporting the kiwi. After massive falls yesterday over 6% in the ASX the index has again shed a further 4% or around 66B in value during today’s trading. The NZX is not fearing any better dropping over 4% in today’s trading. RBNZ’s Ore is due to talk at 2pm today on unconventional monetary policy and should hopefully give further directional cues. Certainly price fluctuations should continue in choppy times around current levels for some time yet. Buyers of AUD are still enjoying good buying levels, a luxury EUR, USD and GBP buyers don’t have.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9610 (1.0396)
Resistance: 0.9645 (1.0520)
Support: 0.9505 (1.0370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9496-0.9684 (1.0326-1.0531)

Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair saw price move initially to 0.9615 (1.0400) levels then to 0.9500 (1.0530) as markets responded to the RBA rate cut buying back the Aussie. The RBA cut rates Tuesday to 0.75% from 1.25% as widely expected to support a weakening economy as it responds to the coronavirus outbreak. The RBA says they are prepared to ease further if necessary if coronavirus continues to cloud growth forecasts. Usually post a rate cut by any central bank weakens the currency based on yield rate differences, but surprisingly the Aussie rallied over a cent post release through to Thursday. Friday’s price is back at 0.9510 (1.0480) as we wait for Australian Retail figures this afternoon.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9538 AUDNZD 1.0476
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9495- 0.9607 AUDNZD 1.0408- 1.0531

Improvements during early week trading took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9630 (1.0385) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on weaker Aussie data. Construction work done came in for the fourth quarter 2019 a disappointing -3.0% from the -1.0% expected and overall for the 2019 year down- overall 7.4%. This was followed by capex at -2.8% for the fourth quarter based on predictions of 0.5% growth. NZ ANZ Business Confidence missed its mark also releasing softer data Thursday stemming a return of favour for the AUD with price returning to 0.9590 (1.0430) midday Friday. Looking ahead we have the RBA Cash rate and policy statement next week with expectations that they will hold off a little longer before dropping rates as they watch how economic factors play out such as the recent jump in unemployment and importantly coronavirus. We think recent ranges will remain intact for a while longer.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9603 AUDNZD 1.0406
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9533- 0.9630 AUDNZD 1.0384- 1.0489

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair continues to knock about around the 0.9600 (1.0420) area with a slight improvement for the kiwi into Tuesday off the Monday open from 0.9590 (1.0430). Both the kiwi and Aussie economies will continue to be vulnerable to risk off coronavirus headline disruptions, but we don’t expect the price to shift much from recent ranges in the near term. We have NZ – ANZ Business Confidence and Aussie Private Capital Expenditure to come this week for directional cues.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9589 (1.0419)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0470)
Support: 0.9550 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9543-0.9609 (1.0407-1.0479)

Choppy movement this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has seen price trade between 0.9540 (1.0480) and 0.9602 (1.0414) with no real direction. RBA minutes confirmed recent speak of lower rates to achieve inflation targets and full employment and reviewing the case for further interest cuts at a later date. The Australian Employment rate went higher to 5.3% from 5.2% remaining relatively steady but markets saw it another way, weakening the Aussie post release. Next week’s NZ Retails Sales and Business Confidence should offer more momentum ques.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9568 AUDNZD 1.0442
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0414- 1.0479 AUDNZD 0.9542- 0.9602

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slumped off the weekly open tracking to 0.9555 (1.0465) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but rebounded back to 0.9600 (1.0420) during early Tuesday trading sessions. This afternoon’s RBA minutes from the 4th February policy meeting hold immediate attention in the pair but we don’t expect any surprises and any major shifts to price. Australian Wage data Wednesday before Employment data Thursday are the main events on the calendar this week. Recent activity in the cross suggests a return to the recent top of the band at 0.9690 (1.0320) a continuation of the AUD decline from last November

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9590 (1.0424)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9520 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9519-0.9618 (1.0397-1.0505)

Price momentum from last week continued for the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9460 (1.0570) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) early in the week through to the RBNZ announcement Wednesday. The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 1.0% which was no surprise, but Ore’s statement surprised after he confirmed there would be no further cuts planned for 2020. Growth is expected to improve in the second half of the year and inflation is around target levels of 2.0%. The kiwi surged recovering most of last week’s losses back to 0.9615 (1.0400) post the statement. RBA’s governor Lowe was on the wires saying coronavirus was having an uncertain impact on the Australian economy but overall the outlook was improving. These words along with China’s stimulus plan pushed the AUD back to 0.9590 (1.0430). We favour price returning to 0.9710 (1.0300) with an improved RBNZ policy stance.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0430
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0397- 1.0505 AUDNZD 0.9519- 0.9618

The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed at 0.9550 (1.0470) Monday, the lowest daily close against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since 10 December 2019 reaching 0.9545 (1.0475) into Tuesday. The RBA said they would ease policy from the 0.75% if they needed to through 2020 with rates looking to remain low for a long period. The RBNZ official cash rate is announced tomorrow with expectations of no change from the 1.0% with RBNZ’s Ore likely to speak of the impact of the coronavirus and the knock-on effect its making on Chinese growth to NZ growth forecasts. We could see a spike in the kiwi post RBNZ release just on a remain, with a retrace back under 0.9600 (1.0420) predicted.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9532 (1.0483)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0530)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9547-0.9670 (1.0341-1.0474)

Range bound action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair saw little movement last week into Tuesday with price around 0.9650. The Aussie has had a slight edge over the kiwi over the last 7 days after recovering losses from 0.9710 (1.0300). We await today’s RBA cash rate announcement and policy statement with no change to the 0.75% reasonably priced into the cross. We don’t expect much change from current policy but Lowe could speak about concerns around the coronavirus and the flow on effect from China’s worsening economic situation spilling over into Australia’s growth projections. NZ employment data promises to add volatility along with Aussie Trade Balance and Retail Sales Thursday. Buyers of AUD with price above 0.9600 should consider.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.649 (1.0359)
Resistance: 0.9700 (1.0440)
Support: 0.9580 (1.0310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9641-0.9702 (1.0307-1.0372)

After posting a high this week of 0.9710 (1.0300) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked weaker against the Australian Dollar (AUD) through the week down to 0.9660 (1.0350) Friday lunch. With just Aussie CPI releasing slightly above expectation at 0.7% this gave the AUD a boost Wednesday reversing early week, and prior week losses. We have not seen the pair trade outside the thin 130 point band this year. Coronavirus occupies most of the global headlines but hasn’t really played a part yet in this pair’s direction. With the virus expected to affect Chinese growth in the first quarter 2020 from fourth quarter 6.0% to 4.5%, this could have a direct flow on effect spilling into the Australian economy. Next week’s RBA and following NZ employment holds focus.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9656 AUDNZD 1.0351
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9644- 0.9702 AUDNZD 1.0307- 1.0369

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed higher off the open post Friday’s positive NZ CPI print reaching 0.9703 (1.0308) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before easing back to 0.9665 (1.0345). Sitting perilously close to the long term daily close at 0.9710 (1.0300), a close above here could represent further troubles for the Aussie. The last daily close higher was September 2016. The data focus this week lies with fourth quarter Australian CPI with expectations of a rise of 0.6% – bushfires will have an impact on increased prices associated with a lack of supply and problems with distribution in some product sectors such as fruit and veg. Fantastic time to buy AUD – don’t wait for higher prices when over 0.9600 (1.0420) represents historically great buying.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9661 (1.0343)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0430)
Support: 0.9590 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9588-0.9702 (1.0307-1.0430)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stayed around recent range bound prices at 0.9615 (1.0400) early in the week as we waited for Aussie jobs figures. Australian Job data surprised to the upside Thursday after the official Unemployment Rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation number for December rose by 28,900 based on consensus of 12,000. This lifted the Aussie to 0.9590 (1.0430) where it held for several hours before positive NZ fourth quarter CPI unwound Aussie gains as the cross travelled back to 0.9670 (1.0340) Friday. This will reinforce recent uncertainty from the RBNZ to cut rates on February 12, as we see the likelihood of any further cuts on the back burner. With price remaining in a band between 0.9580 (1.0440) and 0.9700 (1.0309) we could see a retracement back to 0.9580 (1.0440) in the near term.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9658 AUDNZD 1.0343
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9588- 0.9675 AUDNZD 1.0335- 1.0430

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has set up camp around 0.9615 (1.0400) over the last few days after a brief burst to 0.9640 (1.0370) mid last week. We need a close below 0.9540 (1.0480) to break the long-term trend higher from Novembers 0.9210 (1.0860) bottom. Two key releases this week for the cross could add volatility- first Aussie jobs numbers followed by NZ quarterly CPI. Both are expected to print well, but we do see chances of a possibility the 11,200 new jobs for December 2019 could miss its mark. With the terrible Australian fires yet to fully affect the AUD we see price back above 0.9700 (1.0310) soon

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9606 (1.0406)
Resistance: 0.9645 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9561-0.9640 (1.0373-1.0458)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) positive mood continued as the currency extends last week’s bull run from 0.9690 (1.0320) to 0.9570 (1.0450) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Support around 0.9570 (1.0450) however held as the kiwi recouped losses to 0.9635 (1.0380). The feel good, from last weeks slew of positive Australian data seems to have ended as Iron Ore depreciates and the Aussie considers fresh talk of rate cuts. Next week’s Australian Jobs data will be key along with govt assistance required from the economic fallout from the bush fires should see the NZD regain momentum leading up to the RBA’s next meeting. We expect the daily high of 0.9685 (1.0325) to be tested in the coming days

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9621 AUDNZD 1.0387
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9562- 0.9632 AUDNZD 1.0382- 1.0458

Last week’s positive Australian data continues to support momentum in the AUD against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price reversing off 0.9695 (1.0314) travelling to 0.9606 (1.0410) into Tuesday. Building Approvals, Trade Balance and Retail Sales all printed up on expectation last week and should continue to push price lower into the 0.95’s especially with a lack of data to print this week driving direction either way. With the imminent signing of the phase one trade deal, this has buoyed the China reliant Australian economy as well- Iron Ore and coal trade higher. We expect the price to drift lower over the week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9593 (1.0413)
Resistance: 0.9625 (1.0430)
Support: 0.9590 (1.0390)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9594-0.9695 (1.0315-1.0423)

The NZD has outperformed on this cross with better NZ economic data and expectations of an RBA rate cut early next year after RBA minutes showed a more dovish tone. Aussie unemployment data out tomorrow always has the power to surprise being a notoriously volatile figure. Currently around 0.9590 this cross has seen a high of 0.9615 over the last week, but with risk sentiment now on the backfoot more risk on the downside for the AUD on this cross should stay relatively static at current levels until tomorrow’s labour data, but if a shocker look for a test back at 0.9620 low is unlikely to be threatened in the near term.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0433
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9575- 0.9615 AUDNZD 1.0400- 10443

The AUD has bounced back on this cross with the NZD/AUD now around 0.9550 (1.0470) after US/China trade headlines reignited market sentiment on risk currencies.There is little domestic data going into the weekend so we expect trading around the current level to be maintained into the weekend with focus next week on this cross centering on the Australian unemployment stats later next week.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9549 AUDNZD 1.0463
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9535- 0.9627 AUDNZD 1.0387- 1.0487

The NZD continues to outperform its AUD partner, currently sitting around the 0.9590 (1.0430) mark as the Aussie suffers from a round of weak local data while subdued progress on the trade front offers little support. Odds-on for another rate cut early in the New Year by the RBA will continue to sap any AUD strength on his cross and any fallout on the Sino/US trade talks will most likely impact the AUD more heavily than the NZD on this cross. The better NZ fundamentals could see the NZD push over the 0.9600 (1.0420) level with first resistance at the 0.9615 (1.0400) mark later in the week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9588 (1.0426)
Resistance: 0.9610 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9520 (1.0405)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9502-0.9613 (1.0402-1.0523)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has proved unstoppable this week extending recent week’s incline against the struggling Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9595 (1.0420). The RBA left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected with Lowe saying the outlook for the global economy although still tilted to the downside remains stable. Markets foresee another possible cut of 25 basis points in February pending how data publishes. Aussie data has been largely poor this week with quarterly GDP coming in at 0.4% from the 0.5% expected and Retail Sales at 0.0% from 0.3% doing most of the damage sinking the Aussie Thursday. We have no further data this week and should see the cross remain around current levels of 0.9580 into next week. Buyers of AUD should fill your boots, the AUD will rebound.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9571 AUDNZD 1.0437
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9503- 0.9593 AUDNZD 1.0424- 1.052

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marched forward Monday to a fresh 13 August high of 0.9550 (1.0470) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as support for the kiwi went up a notch. Aussie Building Approvals were poor yesterday and a new NZ Labour Govt cash incentive to school property bought new buyers of NZD to the table. Markets now await today’s RBA Cash rate and statement later today with no expectation of a change from 0.75%. Comments on future policy could create some volatility. Australian Retail Sales and quarterly GDP should also liven up the cross into the weekend. A daily close through 0.9560 (1.0460) could spell further upside for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9527 (1.0484)
Resistance: 0.9550 (1.0600)
Support: 0.9435 (1.0470)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9445-0.9548 (1.0473-1.0588)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marched on to reach a high of 0.9500 this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as support for the kiwi continues. This is the third week straight the kiwi has outperformed the Aussie Dollar with mixed Australian data results over the week having not helped. Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.6% in the September quarter following a decline of 0.8% in the second quarter highlighting a weakened business sector. Momentum should continue into next week for the NZD but in thinned out market conditions via US Thanksgiving holiday. Next week’s RBA cash rate announcement will be the key release, also of note Aussie Building approvals, quarterly GDP and Retail Sales should make for an interesting week. We suggest prices over 0.9420 provide extremely good buying of AUD. Consideration of the volatility around next week’s risk events should be considered.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9487 AUDNZD 1.0534
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9439- 0.9502 AUDNZD 1.0524- 1.0594

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has posted more gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week reaching a fresh high of 0.9468 (1.0560). This morning’s NZ Retail Sales release printed better than expected for the third quarter suggesting the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than worsening – helping to extend the 27 August high. Both central banks speak over the next 24 hours and could give us further directional cues. Failing this, Aussie Construction completed and ANZ (NZ) Business Confidence should. It’s hard to not see the kiwi go higher at this point, getting past 0.9490 (1.0540) will be tough.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9459 (1.0563)
Resistance: 0.9495 (1.0650)
Support: 0.9389 (1.0530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9394-0.9483 (1.0545-1.0645)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9450 (1.0580) pushing past the 11 week high set late August. The RBA minutes from the last meeting signalled the RBA were in a “monitoring” zone with the RBA not in any hurry to make another cut. Aussie buyers still remain nervous since jobs reports were poor last week which could continue into next week’s set of economic data. The next point of concern for the AUD is 0.9480 (1.0550) if we get a weekly close above this level its thin air through to 0.9700 (1.0300) from there. Next week’s RBA comments and NZ ANZ Business Confidence will be key.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9430 AUDNZD 1.0595
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0579- 1.0656 AUDNZD 0.9384- 0.9452

After an eventful week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair we have seen it flatline this week around the 0.9400 (1.0640) zone. With poor Aussie jobs data and the RBNZ leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.0% we saw a shift from 0.9250 (1.0815) eventuate. We have nothing of note on this week’s calendar to consider only today’s RBA post 5th November policy minutes. The NZD seems to have reasonable support around current levels with the 0.9380 (1.0660) expected to hold this week. Poor US/China trade headlines will continue to support the kiwi against the AUD.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9393 (1.0639)
Resistance: 0.9410 (1.0660)
Support: 0.9380 (1.0628)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9242-0.9429 (1.0606-1.0820)

All recent gains made by the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9210 (1.0875) last week were undone when the RBNZ left their cash rate unchanged causing a flurry of buying excitement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The RBNZ caught markets out by leaving the cash rate at 1.0%, going against the grain of most analysts who predicted a cut to 0.75%. The kiwi surged to 0.9410 (1.0630) where it sits just shy of this levels Friday. Aussie employment data missed the mark contracting in October -19,000 with unemployment ticking higher to 5.3% from 5.2%. This will raise concerns for the RBA when they meet next on the 3rd of December after claiming they had stopped their easing bias last week. Breaking back above 0.9380 (1.0660) the 10 week high shows a momentum swing back in favour of the kiwi. If we get a daily close above 0.9410 (1.0630) we could see price go higher.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9397 AUDNZD 1.0636
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9242- 0.9428 AUDNZD 1.0606- 1.0820

A late flurry of support in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into the weekly close took price to 0.9230 (1.0830) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) prior to continuing the rally into Tuesday to 0.9295 (1.0760). Support will be tested this week for the kiwi with expectations that the RBNZ will cut rates to 0.75%. Aussie Jobs reporting Thursday which is expected to fall in line or improve on recent expectations should push buyers back into the AUD. We favour the continuing AUD momentum from the early August high to continue to 0.9115 (1.0970) over the coming days/weeks.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9289 (1.0759)
Resistance:0.9340 (1.0860)
Support:0.9210 (1.0710)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9204-0.9307 (1.0745-1.0865)

It’s been one way traffic this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with improved sentiment at the RBA taking price to fresh 13 month lows around 0.9200 (1.0865). The RBA kept their cash rate at the historical low of 0.75% hinting at no further easing for a while with improvements in key data of late. For the kiwi the opposite tone developed after poor jobs numbers in the unemployment rate showed a sharp increase from 3.9% to 4.2% taking the NZD south. Looking forward into next week we have the crucial RBNZ official cash rate and monetary statement. It’s possible most of the cut is already priced into the curve but a cut would certainly bring about a fresh leg lower of sorts for the kiwi. Retesting weekly support at 0.9200 (1.0870) is close to home.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9249 AUDNZD 1.0807
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9203- 0.9339 AUDNZD 1.0707- 1.0865

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended late last week’s surge to 0.9345 (1.0700) Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before giving back gains into Tuesday as price drifted lower to 0.9285 (1.0770). A poor print from Aussie Retail Sales at 0.2% from 0.4% expected for September was largely ignored as market focus is squarely on today’s RBA cash rate announcement. Markets have priced in a 90% probability of no change today with a 25% chance of a further cut in 2019. Looking ahead Wednesday’s NZ employment numbers and unemployment are not expected to be great, this could put fresh pressure on the kiwi with the Aussie targeting 0.9240 (1.0820) the 2019 low.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9292 (1.0764)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0820)
Support:0.9240 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9239-0.9339 (1.0708-1.0824)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s push higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9240 (1.0820) into midweek trading, before giving back gains to the kiwi. Price reversed all the way back to the weekly open around 0.9310 (1.0745) Friday helped by ANZ Business Confidence and poor Chinese Manufacturing. We still believe the AUD has more in it and could soon retest the downside through 0.9230 (1.0830) before trading back around what we believe as fair value 0.9100 (1.1000) – 0.9200 (1.0870) range. Any look around 0.9345 (1.0700) should be well capped. Certainly next week’s RBA now holds main focus in the cross with expectations now 50/50 the RBA will cut rates. This was far higher a week ago but with a decent CPI result and other data surprising, our forecast has shifted.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9303 AUDNZD 1.0741
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9239- 0.9317 AUDNZD 1.0733- 1.0823

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9380 (1.0660). Bouncing off this seven week high the kiwi eased lower into Friday to 0.9355 (1.0690). With no economic releases this week for the pair we look ahead to next week’s calendar with focus on Aussie q/q CPI and Building Approvals, followed by ANZ Business Confidence. Any positive news to come out of the Trade talks between US and Chinese officials should support the Aussie, Vice President Pence was surprisingly hawkish last night when spoke about a trade deal being done in the coming weeks.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9353 AUDNZD 1.0687
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9304- 0.9382 AUDNZD 1.0658- 1.0748

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced around the 0.9330 (1.0720) area into Tuesday this week after closing at 0.9310 (1.0740). The kiwi has edged higher from last week’s low of 0.9265 (1.0790) as it looks to retest earlier daily resistance at 0.9365 (1.0680). Positive risk sentiment in the US/China trade war should further support the Aussie due to close economic ties between the two countries. This week’s tier one economic data has nothing of significance. We suggest price should range around current levels into next week’s Aussie midweek quarterly CPI and NZ ANZ Business Confidence.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9333 (1.0701)
Resistance: 0.9365 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9245 (1.0680)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9266-0.9363 (1.068-1.0792)

Direction has been harder to pick than skin off custard this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair. The Aussie has outperformed the kiwi a touch with price travelling to 0.9270 (1.0790) from the open price of 0.9335 (1.0710) Thursday prior to a pullback in the NZD back to 0.9310 (1.0740) Friday. NZ quarterly CPI impressed along with Aussie employment data this week, both affecting price shifts. Risk sentiment in the US/China trade war should further support the Aussie due to close economic links between the two countries. Next week we have a thin week of economic releases with only the RBA assistant governor Kent speaking Wednesday. A retest of support around 0.9240 (1.0820) is seen as the most likely scenario over the next couple of weeks.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9315 AUDNZD 1.0732
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9265- 0.9361 AUDNZD 1.0682- 1.0793

Mid last week’s momentum in the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued into Monday outperforming the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cutting through 0.9300 (1.0752) support to reach 0.9292 (1.0762). Data in the pair has been thin of late but with this week’s NZ quarterly CPI and later Australian employment data publishing, we should get further clues on direction. Risk sentiment due to optimism of a “partial trade deal” in the US/China trade war has possibly supported the AUD a little more due to the close links between the Australian and Chinese economy. Support around the prior low of 0.9240 should offer relief for the kiwi, but we suspect a momentum change around Aussie employment data with expectations of lower new job numbers for September and higher unemployment.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9300 (1.0740)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9295 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9291-0.9378 (1.0663-1.0763)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied overnight on the more positive US/China trade news but traded sideways against the NZD. Currently this cross is around 0.9346 and we expect the current range to hold into next week…No clear direction for this cross as both the RBA and RBNZ have similar rate outlooks. However, any RBA timing for a rate cut likely to be ahead of the RBNZ, NZD move to the 0.9400 level would be on the cards. Data releases next week for both economies may give clearer direction.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9336 AUDNZD 1.0699
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9328- 0.9377 AUDNZD 1.0664- 1.0720

The Australian Dollar (AUD) never recovered after it turned around Tuesday from it’s high against the NZD dollar at 0.9260 (1.0800), post the RBA announcement. The RBA cut their overnight cash rate from 1.0% to 0.75% in efforts to boost economic growth with Lowe saying he needed full employment and inflation up around the target 2.0%. The Aussie remains fundamentally bearish as its heavily exposed to US trade tensions with China. Price Friday tracks around the 0.9340 (1.0700) area with Aussie Retail Sales now the focus later today for the pair. A light economic calendar next week with only Aussie business and consumer confidence to hold attention. The late July bearish channel looks to have been broken this week with price climbing back through 0.9320 (1.0730).

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9350 AUDNZD 1.0691
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9251- 0.9367 AUDNZD 1.0675- 1.0809

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 0.9345 (1.0700) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) late last week before returning down amid poor NZ data. ANZ Business Confidence and NZIER Business Confidence both published down on expectations in line with business pessimism not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. 35% of businesses expect worsening economic conditions heading into 2020. Today Aussie Building Approvals will print ahead of the long awaited RBA rate decision. Over the past fortnight banks and analysts have bought forward their expectation of cuts with a probability of the RBA cutting to 0.75% now priced in at 80%. Attention will mostly be over the Lowe’s comments with how he views further cuts over coming months. Later in the week Retail Sales in Australia releases with reasonable chances we will see a spike to consumer spending in August benefiting the Aussie.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9266 (1.0786)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9261-0.9343 (1.0703-1.0798)

Most of the action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been driven on the back of central bank speak. The Aussie Dollar drifted off from the post weekly open of 0.9230 (1.0835) to 0.9330 (1.0720) into Friday based on RBA and RBNZ rhetoric. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. Lowe made comment the Aussie economy is at a “gentle turning point”. We will see when the RBA meets next week to possibly cut rates – certainly most of the Australian Banks are expecting a 25 point cut to 0.75%. In theory, we should see the AUD weaken leading into the release but suspect most of the expectation of a cut will be mostly already priced into the currency.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9312 AUDNZD 1.0731
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0709- 1.0818 AUDNZD 0.9243- 0.9337

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continues to bounce around a range between 0.9225 (1.0840) and 0.9300 (1.0750) over the past seven days, currently trading at 0.9290 (1.0765) Tuesday lunch. RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight amid increasing pressures by analysts and Aussie banks to cut rates below the current 1.0% as the Australian economy tries to respond from the weakest expansion period since the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday’s RBNZ will be the local focus this week with predictions Governor Orr will retain the current 1.0% based on an aggressive 50 point cut in early August. The bearish band in the NZDAUD remains intact from the high of 0.9680 (1.0330) but a break above 0.9345 (1.0700) could see further NZD pressures develop.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9287 (1.0763)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9235 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9226-0.9303 (1.0749-1.0839)

Early this week we saw price in the Australian Dollar (AUD) , New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair reach a yearly low of 0.9235 (1.0830). Price didn’t stay long at this level retracing back through the weekly open on not so flash Aussie employment data. Australian jobs data released higher than expected with an additional 34,700 people being added to the workforce, but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which pressured the Aussie lower through Friday. Next week’s RBNZ rate announcement followed by the Orr’s statement will give us further clues as to NZD movement, for now momentum is firmly with the AUD in the current bullish channel.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9265 AUDNZD 1.0784
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9234- 0.9304 AUDNZD 1.0748- 1.0829

Although Chinese data took the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower off this week’s open it has fared ok considering ongoing risk factors. With price trading around the 0.9240 (1.0820) area Tuesday lunch, down from 0.9295 (1.0760) on the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), data has been the supporting difference for the Aussie since the beginning of September post the RBA announcement. Thursday’s NZ GDP q/q reading offers an opportunity for the kiwi to regain recent losses. Australian jobs data follows with figures predicted to be good, in line with July’s buoyant result. Direction at the moment favours a retest of prior support around 0.9115 (1.0970) through to next week’s RBNZ announcement.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9248 (1.0805)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0970)
Support: 0.9115 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9235-0.9395 (1.0644-1.0828)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross sits just off pivotal support of 0.9320 (1.0732) at 0.9325 (1.0722) Friday after extending last week’s support for the AUD from 0.9385 (1.0655). The kiwi has remained on the backfoot for most of the week reflecting last week’s positive Aussie data releases. NAB Business confidence showed a slight deterioration in August with Westpac consumer sentiment also printing down on expectations with pressures continuing on family finances and concerns around near term economic outlook, both had little effect as the Aussie pushed on. We have another light week ahead on the economic docket for the pair with just NZ GDP q/q and Aussie employment the focus. The AUD may hold the upper hand over the next two weeks through to the RBA cash rate announcement where they are expected to cut to 0.75% from 1.0%

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9320 AUDNZD 1.0725
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9398 AUDNZD 1.0640- 1.0728

After the Australian Dollar (AUD) broke lower towards the weekly close Friday to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it has recovered into Tuesday to 0.9370 (1.0675) with the kiwi remaining on the back foot from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0262). Data in the pair this week is light with only business confidence to publish on both sides of the ditch to impact price. Firm momentum for the Aussie looks to be the ongoing theme this week continuing on from last week’s positive data reflections. Getting past heavy resistance around 0.9345 (1.0700) could pose an issue, if we see a break below here the kiwi could be in trouble.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9372 (1.0665)
Resistance: 0.9410 (1.0730)
Support: 0.9320 (1.0627)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9339-0.9406 (1.0632-1.0708)

This week’s Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has been choppy pivoting around the 0.9350 (1.0690) area for most of the week. Bouncing higher off the low of 0.9340 (1.0710) several times suggests the recent move has been exhausted for now. We would have expected price movement to have been more supportive of AUD given recent positive data. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 1.0% with Lowe’s comments perceived as less dovish- saying, the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable and will ease policy on an “as needed” basis. Inflation will remain just under the 2% target through to 2020. Next week will be quiet for economic data. A break below 0.9315 (1.0730) could signal further downward bias.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9356 AUDNZD 1.0679
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9338- 0.9399 AUDNZD 1.0639- 1.0708

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross reached a fresh low of 0.9353 (1.0690) at Friday’s close before recovering to 0.9390 (1.0650) through to Tuesday. However the bearish channel from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0260) remains in place with heavy support around the 0.9345 (1.0700) area in play. The kiwi will be taking instructions this week from the Aussie data releases as there are several price moving items to publish including the RBA Cash rate today at 4.30 NZT (1.0% unchanged expected) and quarterly GDP Wednesday. Data clearly will dictate price moves with the pair trading anywhere between 0.9250 (1.0810) and 0.9550 (1.0470) at the end of the week – we support a NZD push higher.

Exchange Rates
Current Level:0.9376 (1.0654)
Resistance:0.9420 (1.0700)
Support:0.9345 (1.0615)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9352-0.9455 (1.0576-1.0693)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the fourth straight week taking price to 0.9370 (1.0660) Friday. The bearish channel from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0260) remains in place with a 0.9345 (1.0700) retest looming. The kiwi has never recovered from the 50 point cash rate cut on the 7th of August. Data out in Australia in the form of construction completed showed a further slowdown for the second quarter which is worry for the Australian economy with the chances of a recession still a possibility in the coming quarters. ANZ Business Confidence in NZ plunged to a 2008 low putting added pressure on the kiwi Thursday. If price can break past 0.9345 (1.0700) the kiwi is in real trouble of going much lower. Next week the RBA will announce their cash rate – no change is expected just yet from 1.0%

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9377 AUDNZD 1.0654
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9366- 0.9495 AUDNZD 1.0531- 1.0676

After the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) brief weekly open setback to 0.9495 (1.0530) the Aussie has regained its momentum against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Tuesday posting 0.9435 (1.0600) just shy of last week’s low. Direction in August has mainly been Aussie supportive but with Building Approval figures publishing Friday potentially looking shaky based on a poor June reading of -1.2% the Aussie’s run could be short term. ANZ Business confidence publishes first on Thursday and will show us a broad picture of NZ business health. A bounce off the early June level of 0.9420 (1.0620) may offer crucial support for the kiwi

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9426 (1.0608)
Resistance: 0.9565 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0455)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9420-0.9495 (1.0532-1.0616)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has underperformed its Australian cousin (AUD) this week, grinding lower to currently trade around 0.9425 (1.0610). The RBA minutes released on Tuesday had little impact, and the only other significant release this week will be NZ retail sales data due in the next hour. The market is expecting a small gain of 0.1%. For now, the focus for the pair remains on the downside and we expect further losses to test minor support around 0.9380 (1.0661), and then potentially 0.9320 (1.0730), over the coming week.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9422 AUDNZD 1.0614
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9420 – 0.9506 AUDNZD 1.0520 – 1.0616

A break below 0.9570 (1.0450) the recent bearish channel from mid April suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD) may have turned a corner against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Price this week has continued through to 0.9478 (1.0550) a continuation of last week’s fantastic Aussie employment data. Today we lead into the RBA meeting minutes from the 5th August with investors suggesting the RBA will take a watch and learn approach over the coming months and change policy as necessary. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday the only other data of importance on the calendar this week. The NZDAUD cross I would suggest won’t travel far from the nest this week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9478 (1.0543)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9462-0.9549 (1.0472-1.0569)

With no data on the calendar this week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it took its cues from a rather busy Australian Dollar (AUD) – price sits Friday at 0.9490 after opening at 0.9530 (1.0490). Australian wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the June quarter including an increase to the number of new people employed rising from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%, overall Australian employment figures remain solid and in a healthy spot giving the RBA something to consider. Technically the cross has broken past 0.9560 (1.0460) channel support and looks to retest 0.9440 (1.0590) in the coming days. NZ Retails Sales in the only highlight on the calendar next week.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9482 AUDNZD 1.0536
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484- 0.9567 AUDNZD 1.0452- 1.0544

After a massive week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair after both central banks made rate announcements price has consolidated around 0.9550 (1.0470) into Tuesday after bouncing off 0.9745 (1.0265) earlier last week. It’s been quite a number of months since we have seen such a shift in this cross. This week it’s only Aussie data on the calendar to focus and drive price from its current happy place. If today’s NAB Business confidence and later Aussie Employment data prints well we could see the Aussie push another leg higher against the kiwi to the next resistance point of 0.9410 (1.0630) representing early May 2019 levels. The long term trendline suggests we need a close below 0.9505 (1.0520) to confirm new AUD bullish momentum.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9537 (1.0485)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0520)
Support: 0.9505 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9505-0.9742 (1.0265-1.0521)

What a tussle it has been this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with both central banks making interest rate announcements. From the start we saw the AUD drift out of favour to 0.9745 (1.0260) to reach a September 2016 high on the back of the RBA statement and strong NZ employment data. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% and said downside risks remain – comments were in line with other central bank comments when they said the global outlook remains questionable and inflation expectations low. Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement stole the show by shocking markets by cutting the official cash rate to 1.0% from 1.5% in a move where markets were expecting only a 25 basis point shift lower to 1.25%. It was an unbelievable decision given the only time the RBNZ has cut rates by 50 points in the past was after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and post 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. Price reversed hard after the release to 0.9540 (1.0480) continuing to drift lower to 0.9505 (1.0520) Friday with the AUD pegging back earlier losses to a four week high. Have we seen a trend change in the NZDAUD cross? I suspect not, we will be a better gauge over the following week with Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence and crucial Aussie employment data Thursday.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9521 AUDNZD 1.0497
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9505- 0.9742 AUDNZD 1.0264- 1.0520

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surged through recent resistance around 0.9660 (1.0350) to reach 0.9745 (1.0263) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Tuesday after a surprise to NZ Unemployment figures. The NZ Unemployment for the June quarter printed at 3.9% down from 4.2% in the March quarter. This was represented in an increase of 9,000 to the NZ workforce leaving the total number of unemployed in NZ at 109,000. This afternoon’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement is now the focus with expectations of no cut just yet to the 1.0%. Special interest around how governor Lowe perceives the local economy and how future data may influence further easing later in the year should hold the attention of markets. Tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement is next with a cut expected to 1.25%. With NZ employment now said to be at full capacity comments by governor Orr will be key for gauging future easing. With price around the 0.9675 area direction is extremely tough to gauge, at the close of business tomorrow I’m guessing price could be back around 0.9600 (1.0420)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9673 (1.0332)
Resistance: 0.9740 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9564-0.9742 (1.0265-1.0456)

The Australian dollar (AUD) tried to stage something of a comeback against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week, but in the past 12 hours a surprise announcement from US president Trump regarding new tariffs on China has completely undermined it. Wednesday’s release of disappointing NZ business confidence data followed by stronger than forecast Australian inflation figures, saw the NZDAUD trade to low of 0.9564, from above 0.9600 prior. But in the wake of the surprise US announcement on tariffs overnight, the AUD has seen significant selling pressure driving the cross back up over 0.9600 to test trend resistance at 0.9652. In the next couple of hours we have Australian Retail Sales data to digest with the market looking for a gain of 0.3%. The Aussie is certainly out of favor at the moment and it’s going to take a good retail sales number to turn it around. Topside resistance continues to come in around 0.9650, while key downside support is now seen at 0.9535. Monday is an Australian bank holiday but next week should be any anything but quiet. We have NZ employment data to digest along with central bank meetings from both the RBA and RBNZ. It may well be a defining week for the NZDAUD pair.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9624 AUDNZD 1.0380
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9562- 0.9650 AUDNZD 1.0363- 1.0457

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has been extremely range bound- especially over the past 10 days. Remaining between 0.9570 (1.0450) and 0.9615 (1.0400) since mid-July it’s tough to call any break either way from these flat levels, currently 0.9605. If anything price in the bullish channel since April looks to make a move back to around 0.9550 levels with topside limited. With so much focused offshore this week with the FOMC announcement and NFP Friday it’s not hard to see why this pair has been relegated to the back stalls. On the calendar we have ANZ Business Confidence tomorrow as well as Australian quarterly CPI and later AUD Retail Sales to hopefully get things moving.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9603 (1.0409)
Resistance: 0.9635 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0380)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9566-0.9620 (1.0395-1.0454)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced around a fair bit having reached 0.9630 (1.0385) Monday, the high before drifting lower to 0.9565 (1.0454) Wednesday, back to 0.9620 (1.0394) Thursday and 0.9582 (1.0436) Friday where we sit currently. RBA governor Lowe staunchly defended his mandate for a 2-3% inflation target but said rates will stay low for some time leaving chances of further rate cuts to come data dependant. NZ Trade Balance also gave the kiwi a short boost after printing at 365M from the 100M expected. Overall the pair still sits comfortably within the long term bullish trend from 18 April’s 0.9315 (1.0735) with it looking like it may again break past 0.9600 levels into August providing 0.9530 (1.0490) is not broken. With the 8th August RBNZ expected to cut rates this must be factored in for any buyers of AUD.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0431
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9565- 0.9629 AUDNZD 1.0385- 1.0454

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains stubbornly elevated against its Australian cousin, the AUD. There has been little we can isolate as a key driver for the pair over the past week, it seems the NZD has just outperformed the AUD as wider market influences impact each individual currency. None of this has changed our base view that the pair is somewhat overvalued currently and we still look for a move back toward 0.9450/9500 at some stage ahead of the RBNZ meeting in early August. There is some strong technical resistance around the 0.9630 area, and it just so happens that corresponds to the high reached in the past 12 hours. This week’s economic calendar is a little light with only NZ Trade Balance data and a speech from RBA Gov Lowe of any note.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5954 (1.0434)
Resistance: 0.9630 (1.0526)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0384)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9539-0.9628 (1.0386-1.0483)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) outperformed its Australian cousin, the AUD, this week although it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what the driver was. Most of the gains came on Wednesday night as both currencies surged against the USD, and the pair briefly traded over 0.9600 yesterday before Australian employment data saw the Australian dollar claw back some ground against the kiwi. Support is now seen around 0.9505 and resistance around 0.9620. For clients looking to convert NZD to AUD, we still recommend taking advantage of any moves back toward or over 0.9600. Our base case scenario is still for the pair to drift lower as we draw closer the RBNZ rate meeting in Early August. Next week is a quiet one data wise with just the trade balance from NZ and a speech from RBA Governor Lowe of any note.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9589 AUDNZD 1.0429
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9531 – 0.9616 AUDNZD 1.0399 – 1.0492

With both the NZD and AUD making significant gains across the board over the past week, the NZDAUD cross rate has held relatively steady, stuck in a range around a mid point of 0.9550 or so. We have seen a few tests toward the weeks high of 0.9577, but they have all been short lived and we believe any strength toward that level represents good value buying of AUD. We expect the pair to drift lower over the coming weeks as we approach the August RBNZ meeting and a widely expected interest rate cut. Key support currently comes in around 0.9500 while topside resistance is seen around 0.9600. RBA minutes are set for release in the next hour, focus will then turn to Australian employment data on Thursday.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9548 (1.0474)
Resistance: 0.9600 (1.0526)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0417)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9494-0.9577 (1.0442-1.0533)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has outperformed its Australian cousin this week, driving the NZDAUD cross rate to a high of 0.9577 (AUDNZD 1.0442). The AUD under-performance has come on the back of a couple of weak surveys. Both consumer sentiment and business confidence declined last month reinforcing the outlook for sluggish economic activity going forward. That being said, we have just had two rapid fire interest rate cuts from the RBA and there is some upcoming fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts from the Morrison government, so it may be wise not to get too carried away with expectations of further gains in this pair. There is significant resistance around 0.9600 and that may well continue to cap the pair. We could easily see the cross range between the broad parameters of 0.9400 and 0.9600 over the coming weeks. With that in mind, clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should take advantage of any further strength toward that 0.9600 area.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9551 AUDNZD 1.0470
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484 – 0.9577 AUDNZD 1.0442 – 1.0544

The Australian dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand dollar over the past week, and that trend may well continue over the coming days. Ever since the RBA cut interest rates last week, and delivered a less dovish than expected statement, the AUD has performed reasonably well. Clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should view any potential move back toward 0.9550 as a good opportunity to deal. We suspect the pair may well be heading back toward 0.9450, which is an area it seemed very comfortable around throughout April, May and much of June. There is little from NZ to dive the pair this week, while from Australia we get Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment data.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.9498 (1.0528)
Resistance: 0.9585 (1.0588)
Support: 0.9445 (1.0433)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9484-0.9590 (1.0427-1.0544)