FX News

Trump Turns Energy to Courtroom Hopes

President Trump

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 51.22 million with over 1,268,000 official deaths.

The US Election has extended past election day as we wait for an official winner and outcome.  Is a win by Joe Biden and the Democrat Party imminent or are we to see weeks of President Trump Republican voter fraud claims play out in the courts with much delay. In the 11th hour Joe Biden had massive comebacks in the key states of Pennsylvania and Georgia – some say ballot foul play was at hand. Markets however seemed to embrace the new possible reality of a Democrat victory but with a long drawn out legal process underway a proper result could take weeks. Voter turnout certainly had no positive outcome in the battle against coronavirus with the virus spreading at a rate of over 100,000 per day recently with health experts expecting these figures to double. New lockdowns will be brought back which will paralyse the US economy again detrimentally affecting the economy for the rest of the year and possibly into 2021. Any such potential uncertainty in the US Election could make markets nervous and send the kiwi and Aussie lower, although most scenarios have already been well priced in.  

Key Points:

• President Trump has made legal claims on the legitimacy of the ballot counts in at least 4 states. 
• Equity markets are up overnight – the DOW gaining over 3.5% on positive coronavirus vaccine headlines
• US Unemployment fell to 6.9% in October from 7.9% in September  
• US Non-Farm Payroll numbers for October were good with the US adding 638,000 jobs slightly more than the 595,000 expected 
• EU and UK Brexit negotiators are back at it this week in London hoping to break the deadlock of recent disagreements between the two sides
• Manufacturing in China looks to going from strength to strength with figures showing a marked improvement across the sector, the PMI Index is the highest its been at 53.0 since January 2011

Major Announcements last week:

  • RBA cuts their benchmark rate from 0.25% to 0.10%
  • NZ Unemployment spikes from 4.0% in second quarter to 5.3% in third quarter
  • Bank of England left their official cash rate unchanged at 0.10% in a 9-0 unanimous decision
  • US Unemployment Rate p[ublished sharply lower from 7.9% to 6.9% in October
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