The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) inched its way higher over the course of last week against the Australian Dollar Dollar (AUD) to close at 0.9140 (1.0940). The kiwi still holds above key support at 0.9000 supported by better performing risk markets and prospects of the RBNZ raising rates. The RBNZ is widely predicted to raise the cash rate tomorrow from 1.5% to 2.0% to combat rising inflation, its second consecutive punch higher after raising in April. At 2.0% this will be the highest it’s been since September 2016. As inflation threatens to blow out of control the RBNZ will be carefully balancing rises with inflation forecasts with the ultimate goal of getting back to a “neutral policy” stance of 1-3% inflation target. The 2-year inflation expectation has risen recently to 3.29%. It’s a finely balanced algorithm, this “economy adjusting” – get it wrong and they could squeeze out growth and cause an economic recession. We don’t expect the cross to travel to far from the Roost this week.
Current Level: 0.9085 (1.0999)
Resistance: 0.9125 (1.1100)
Support: 0.9009 (1.0960)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9026-0.9100 (1.0988-1.1079)