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This week’s movement in currencies has been choppy to say the least with no real clear direction.

Wednesday’s Global Dairy Auctions delivered good news to local farmers with good prices achieved across the board in dairy products but most importantly in Whole Milk and Skim Milk. The auction was the 5th in a row of positive prices. Fonterra has revised their 2019/2020 milk solid pay-out to between $6.55-$7.55 per kg, up 30 cents from the previous forecast of $6.25- $7.25. The world demand for whole milk powder is expected to be good for the remained of the season through to May 2020 with global WMP supplies lower than normal. 

After nearly two years of negotiations in the China/US tariff saga with many false draws along the way we seem to be no closer to actually seeing a deal agreed by both parties. Apparently progress towards “phase one” is being made but we have heard this all before. Although we have been fed news that a deal is close to being done in reality the situation resembles a scenario which could go either way as it balances over the edge of a cliff. Both sides remain divided over key trade issues yet the rumour is they are close. Who knows.

Minutes of the recent Fed policy meeting highlighted a few key things: –  President Trump’s calls for negative interest rates following in the footsteps of Japan and the ECB won’t happen. The Fed made it clear that negative interest rates were not a viable option and an unattractive tool in the United States. The fed said negative rates would lead to distortions to the financial systems and adverse effects. Trade tensions between China and the US had eased but remained inflated. Inflation is expected to run around the 2% target through 2022 but growth forecast remain tilted to the downside. Most Fed officials are worried that weakness in manufacturing, trade and business investment could tarnish economic expansion by starting cutbacks in hiring and consumer spending when they cut interest rates on November 1st.

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