This Week’s Economic Calendar

Sunday March 10th
8:00pm CAD Daylight Saving Time Shift
8:00pm USD Daylight Saving Time Shift

Monday March 11th
12:50pm JPY Final GDP q/q
Forecast 0.30%
Previous -0.10%
11th-15th CNY New Loans
Forecast 1510B
Previous 4920B

Tuesday March 12th
8:00pm GBP Claimant Count Change
Forecast 20.3K
Previous 14.1K
8:00pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Forecast 5.70%
Previous 5.80% Read more

AUD/EURO Transfer

The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing of the ‘Big Figure’ of 0.6000, to the downside. The inherent weakness of the commodity currency has driven the fall, while the ECB’s reticence to alter tight monetary policy, is a direct result of the fear of resurgent inflation. Germany is now in recession and many other member states are in the same boat, which has aided in the war on inflation, but at some time, the economic pain must be addressed with pressure to lower interest rates. The question is whether the RBA will blink before the ECB?

Current Level: 0.6043
Resistance: 0.6070
Support: 0.5990
Last Weeks Range: 0.6000- 0.6040

AUD/GBP Transfer

The AUD has tumbled against the GBP for the whole of 2024, falling from highs of 0.5350 in January, to trade around today’s 0.5125. Interest rate differentials drive this price action and the Bank of England appear committed to their tight monetary policy. The UK is in recession but has green-shoots of growth, allowing some leeway for the Bank of England. The AUD has been undermined by less certainty from the Central Bank. Growth and inflation remain key to both currencies, so data will be watched closely in the coming week.

Current Level: 0.5165
Support: 0.5100
Resistance: 0.5190
Last week’s range: 0.5110- 0.5165

AUD/USD Transfer

The AUD has been faring badly against the USD, battered by the ‘hawkish’ approach to monetary policy by the Fed and the mixed messages emanating from the RBA Governor. Australian inflation has been falling steadily and the latest reading of 3.4% was steady, despite projections of a spike back upwards. The RBA Governor have been all over the shop in recent times, but it will be the grim determination of a ‘hawkish’ Federal Reserve that controls the AUD.

Current Level: 0.6616
Support: 0.6515
Resistance: 0.6650
Last week’s range: 0.6535- 0.6610

NZD/EURO Transfer

The NZD/EUR cross rate has been dropping most of 2024, falling from the January highs of 0.5730, back to around 0.5600. This has been a product of the weakness of the NZD and the ECB holding steady on monetary policy, as inflation continues to fall. French and German CPI inflation numbers have been steadily falling, but fears of supply pressures, have ensured the ECB holds rates higher for longer.

Current Level: 0.5630
Support: 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5660
Last week’s range: 0.5590- 0.5645

NZD/GBP Transfer

The Bank of England has been very hawkish in their approach to interest rates, holding them at high levels, despite precipitous falls in their inflation levels. This has ensured the strength of the GBP against the NZD, which has weakened from highs of just below 0.5000, to be trading around 0.4800 v the NZD. This downside bias is likely to continue into the near future, as the GBP remains supported by their Central Bank policy.

Current Level: 0.4811
Resistance: 0.4850
Support: 0.4780
Last Weeks Range: 0.4800- 0.4845

NZD/AUD Transfer

The cross rate has reached highs of 0.9450, in the last week or so, leading into the latest RBNZ Rate Decision. The NZ Central Bank’s ‘dovish’ stance has allowed the cross rate to drift off recent highs, to trade around 0.9350. The Australian CPI inflation number, released this week, was in line with expectations. The cross rate was softer due to the RBNZ dovish sentiment, but any ‘hawkish’ stance by the RBA Governor, could see the cross-rate re-test highs.

Current Level: 0.9312
Resistance: 0.9360
Support: 0.9280
Last Weeks Range: 0.9330- 0.9400

 

NZD/USD Transfer

The RBNZ left rates unchanged, as expected by markets, this week gone by. The previous CPI inflation reading from NZ, was softer than expected, and this has led to a more ‘dovish’ approach to monetary policy. The NZD tumbled against all currencies, with the prospect of further weakness, as the Fed continues the ‘higher for longer’ mantra.

Current Level: 0.6162
Support: 0.6100
Resistance: 0.6190
Last week’s range: 0.6055- 0.6120

 

EURO/AUD Transfer

The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing below of 0.6000. The weakness of the cross-rate is partially due to falling commodity prices, but also the uncertainty from the RBA. The ECB meets this week to decide their latest rate decision, where they are projected to leave rates unchanged, but continue with the strongly ‘hawkish’ narrative. This will probably ensure continued downside for the cross-rate.

Current Level: 1.6694
Resistance: 1.6806
Support: 1.6542
Last Weeks Range: 1.6556- 1.6638

AUD/EURO Transfer

The AUD/EUR has been weakening all of 2024, from highs in January of just below 0.6200, to testing below of 0.6000. The weakness of the cross-rate is partially due to falling commodity prices, but also the uncertainty from the RBA. The ECB meets this week to decide their latest rate decision, where they are projected to leave rates unchanged, but continue with the strongly ‘hawkish’ narrative. This will probably ensure continued downside for the cross-rate.

Current Level: 0.5990
Resistance: 0.6045
Support: 0.5950
Last Weeks Range: 0.6010- 0.6040